Group 1: Stablecoin Market Overview - As of July 2025, the total market capitalization of stablecoins reached $260 billion, with over 98% being dollar-pegged stablecoins like USDT and USDC[2][15] - Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) dominate the market, accounting for approximately 86% of the total stablecoin market[12][15] - The stablecoin market has shown strong growth, with a 22% increase in the first half of 2025 alone[15] Group 2: Impact on U.S. Treasury Bonds - Stablecoins have created new demand for U.S. Treasury securities, particularly short-term bonds, with Tether being the seventh-largest U.S. Treasury buyer globally, holding over $120 billion[3][21] - The "GENIUS Act" mandates that stablecoin issuers maintain a 1:1 reserve with high-quality liquid assets, primarily short-term U.S. Treasury securities[3][17] - The focus on short-term bonds may exacerbate the steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, as stablecoins have minimal impact on long-term bonds[3][37] Group 3: Strengthening the Dollar's Position - Stablecoins have not undermined the dollar's global dominance; instead, they have enhanced its efficiency and usage, particularly in high-inflation countries[4][51] - The regulatory framework in the U.S. and Hong Kong supports the growth of stablecoins, with the latter allowing multi-currency pegging, potentially challenging the dollar's supremacy[5][62] - Stablecoins facilitate cross-border transactions, significantly reducing costs and increasing the speed of transfers compared to traditional banking methods[58] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - The reliance on stablecoins poses risks, including potential loss of control over the dollar's monetary policy and vulnerabilities highlighted by events like the Silicon Valley Bank incident[4][60] - The long-term credit risk of the U.S. dollar remains a concern, as increasing national debt could undermine confidence in stablecoins[5][60] - Regulatory changes and market volatility present ongoing risks to the stability and growth of the stablecoin market[68]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the international monetary system, particularly focusing on the decline of the US dollar and the implications of stablecoins in this context [3][4][5]. Group 1: Current Monetary System Challenges - Since early 2025, the narrative of "American exceptionalism" has been challenged, leading to a 12.5% decline in the US dollar index [3]. - Following the "reciprocal tariffs" impact in April, the US financial markets experienced simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency [3]. - The "Triffin Dilemma," which highlights the inherent instability of a unipolar international monetary system, is relevant to understanding the current situation [4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Theoretical Framework - The article references historical instances, such as the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the UK's currency crisis in 1931, to illustrate the recurring nature of these monetary challenges [4]. - The discussion emphasizes that the current issues with the dollar system are not isolated but are part of a broader historical pattern of monetary instability [4]. Group 3: Role of Stablecoins - The article raises questions about the nature and functions of stablecoins, exploring their potential roles in the monetary system and their relationship with the US dollar [5]. - It suggests that discussions around stablecoins should return to fundamental questions about the essence and functions of money [5]. Group 4: Political and Economic Interconnections - The relationship between alliance politics, monetary relations, and strategy is highlighted, indicating that the dollar and gold issues are deeply intertwined with broader political concerns, such as US-NATO relations [6]. - The article stresses the importance of understanding economic policies in conjunction with strategic and foreign policy issues, particularly in the context of a chaotic international monetary system [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the international monetary system, particularly focusing on the decline of the US dollar and the implications of stablecoins in this context [3][4][5]. Group 1: Current Monetary System Challenges - Since early 2025, the narrative of "American exceptionalism" has been challenged, leading to a 12.5% decline in the US dollar index [3]. - Following the "reciprocal tariffs" impact in April, the US financial markets experienced simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency [3]. - The "Triffin Dilemma," which predicts a crisis of confidence in the dollar due to excessive credit expansion, is highlighted as a recurring theme in the history of monetary systems [3][4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Theoretical Framework - The article references historical instances, such as the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the UK's experience with the pound, to illustrate the inherent instability in unipolar monetary systems [4]. - The discussion emphasizes that the "Triffin Dilemma" is not limited to the Bretton Woods system but is a common issue across all unipolar international monetary systems [4]. Group 3: Role of Stablecoins and Future Considerations - There are ongoing debates regarding the role of stablecoins in the monetary system, including their potential to complement or replace the dollar [5]. - The article suggests that understanding the essence and functions of money is crucial for evaluating the impact of stablecoins on the current monetary landscape [5]. - It calls for a grounded discussion based on facts, history, and theory to avoid falling into the trap of grand narratives in the study of international monetary systems [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and dynamics of the current international monetary system, particularly focusing on the role of the US dollar and the potential for the internationalization of the Chinese yuan as a response to the declining dominance of the dollar [2][6][10]. Group 1: US Dollar and International Monetary System - The US, as the issuer of the world's primary reserve currency, maintains economic prosperity by borrowing from other countries, leading to a significant accumulation of debt [3][6]. - Recent data indicates that the US GDP contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025, primarily due to increased imports driven by tariff policies, raising concerns about the sustainability of the US economy [3][4]. - The dollar index has seen a significant decline, dropping 10.79% in the first half of the year, marking its worst performance since 1973 [4][10]. Group 2: Challenges of Dollar Dominance - The "Triffin Dilemma" persists, highlighting the conflict between the need for the US to run trade deficits to provide global liquidity and the resulting pressure on the dollar's value [6][8]. - The share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 71% in 1999 to 57.4% in Q1 2024, indicating a trend towards de-dollarization [9][10]. Group 3: Internationalization of the Chinese Yuan - The article emphasizes the strategic opportunity for the yuan's internationalization amid the multi-polarization of the international monetary system [15]. - Key measures proposed for enhancing yuan internationalization include improving the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), expanding currency swap agreements, and exploring more offshore yuan usage scenarios [15][16][17]. - The issuance of offshore yuan stablecoins is suggested as a new approach to promote yuan internationalization, particularly in the context of digital finance [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The emergence and development of digital currencies, particularly stablecoins, are seen as a necessary evolution in the context of historical changes in the international monetary system, driven by technological advancements and shifting societal values [1][7][12]. Group 1: Evolution of the International Monetary System - The international monetary system has transitioned through three main stages: the gold standard, the Bretton Woods system, and the current credit-based system, with each stage reflecting changes in global economic dynamics [4][6]. - The credit-based era has enhanced central banks' ability to control money supply, making monetary policy crucial, yet it also presents management challenges, as not all countries can effectively manage their credit currencies [6][10]. Group 2: Necessity of Digital Currency - The rise of digital currencies is closely linked to technological progress and the emergence of a new generation of consumers, termed "digital natives," who have different preferences for payment methods and asset types compared to previous generations [7][8]. - Digital currencies, especially stablecoins, are a response to the demand for real-time settlement, global asset circulation, and privacy protection, driven by participants in the digital economy [9][10]. Group 3: Trends in Monetary Diversification - The future monetary landscape is expected to be more diversified, with various forms of digital currencies and stablecoins playing increasingly significant roles in payments, cross-border settlements, and asset allocation [10][11]. - Stablecoins, while anchored to fiat currencies or specific assets, can disrupt traditional banking structures and challenge central banks' control over money circulation and financial data [10][11]. Group 4: Central Bank Responses - Central banks and financial regulators need to adapt their strategies to leverage the benefits of stablecoins and digital currencies while preventing monopolistic practices by non-bank entities [11][13]. - The exploration of stablecoin compliance regulations in economies like the U.S. serves as a reference for global financial markets, emphasizing the importance of anti-money laundering, customer fund safety, and risk management [11][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The evolution of money reflects societal consensus on value, with digital currencies still in a phase of exploration and integration into the financial system [12][13]. - Despite the rise of new monetary tools, central bank-issued currencies will continue to play a foundational role in payment systems and financial regulation for the foreseeable future [12][13].

Group 1 - The global economic landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, with the competition between China and the United States in the stablecoin sector representing a struggle for dominance in the future international monetary system [2] - Stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies pegged to fiat currencies or specific assets, are becoming a new battleground for both countries, reflecting their differing strategic intentions [2] - The U.S. government aims to expand the potential buyer base for U.S. Treasury bonds by issuing stablecoins, thereby reducing reliance on foreign central banks [5] Group 2 - The U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act, which mandates that for every dollar stablecoin issued, an equivalent value of U.S. Treasury bonds must be purchased, potentially injecting $2 trillion into the Treasury market if the stablecoin market reaches $2 trillion [5] - China's central bank is actively promoting the internationalization of the digital yuan to gain a foothold in the stablecoin arena, viewing stablecoins as a tool for enhancing national monetary power [7] - Hong Kong has been designated as a testing ground for the digital yuan, with the passage of the Stablecoin Ordinance, positioning it as a "stablecoin regulatory special zone" [9] Group 3 - The value of currencies, including the U.S. dollar and the Chinese yuan, ultimately depends on credit backing, with recent surges in Bitcoin prices reflecting a loss of confidence in the dollar [10] - China's strategy for developing stablecoins is not solely focused on addressing fiscal challenges but aims to establish a new global monetary order [11] - The competition between U.S. and Chinese stablecoins signifies a significant shift in the global monetary landscape, leading to the emergence of a more diversified international monetary system [11]

Group 1: International Monetary System - The international monetary system has evolved over time, with the dominance of currencies reflecting changes in global power dynamics and national competitiveness [3] - The Euro, established in 1999, currently holds about 20% of global foreign exchange reserves, while the Renminbi has risen to become the second-largest trade financing currency and the third-largest payment currency globally [4] - Future discussions on the international monetary system may focus on reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency and exploring the potential of a super-sovereign currency like the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) [4][5] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment System - The cross-border payment system is crucial for global financial stability and is evolving towards greater efficiency, security, and inclusivity [6] - There is a trend towards diversification in cross-border payments, with more countries using local currencies for settlements, thus reducing the dominance of a single sovereign currency [6][7] - Emerging technologies such as blockchain and digital currencies are reshaping the traditional payment system, enhancing efficiency while posing regulatory challenges [7] Group 3: Global Financial Stability - The global financial stability framework faces new challenges, including fragmented regulatory frameworks and insufficient oversight of emerging financial sectors like digital assets [8] - There is a need for stronger international cooperation to address regulatory gaps and enhance the stability of non-bank financial intermediaries, which have seen significant growth in recent years [8] - Strengthening the IMF's role as a core institution in the global financial safety net is essential for crisis prevention and resolution [9] Group 4: Governance of International Financial Organizations - Calls for reform in international financial organizations like the IMF and World Bank are necessary to reflect the actual economic standing of emerging markets and developing countries [10][11] - The governance structure of these organizations should be updated to enhance the representation and voice of developing nations, promoting true multilateralism [11] - Strengthening the economic oversight functions of international financial organizations is crucial for assessing global risks and guiding countries towards supporting economic globalization [11]

Core Views - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum focuses on "Financial Opening Cooperation and High-Quality Development in the Context of Global Economic Changes" [2] - Key speeches were delivered by prominent financial leaders, emphasizing the importance of financial cooperation and reform in response to global economic challenges [19][43] Group 1: Global Financial Governance - The evolution of the international monetary system reflects deep changes in global dynamics, with historical shifts in dominant currencies indicating the need for reform [6][8] - Discussions on the international monetary system are increasingly driven by geopolitical factors, with a focus on reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency and promoting a multipolar currency system [7][8] - The potential for Special Drawing Rights (SDR) to serve as a super-sovereign currency is acknowledged, but challenges remain in achieving international consensus and expanding its use [8] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment Systems - The cross-border payment system is crucial for global financial stability and is evolving towards greater diversification due to technological advancements [9][10] - Traditional cross-border payment methods face challenges such as inefficiency and high costs, prompting calls for improvement and international cooperation [10] - Emerging technologies like blockchain are reshaping cross-border payments, enhancing efficiency while posing regulatory challenges [11] Group 3: Global Financial Stability - The global financial stability framework has been strengthened post-2008 financial crisis, with enhanced crisis response mechanisms and regulatory reforms [12][13] - New challenges include fragmented regulatory frameworks and insufficient oversight of emerging financial sectors, necessitating improved global coordination [14][15] - The importance of a robust IMF in maintaining global financial stability and governance is emphasized, with calls for reform to reflect the changing global economic landscape [16][17] Group 4: Financial Opening and Cooperation - Financial opening is seen as a key driver for China's financial reform and development, with significant foreign investment in the Chinese financial sector [20][21] - China's financial market is positioned as a vital opportunity for global investors, with a growing share of foreign assets and increasing market participation [21][22] - The expansion of financial services and products in China is expected to continue, driven by consumer demand and technological advancements [23][24] Group 5: Capital Market Development - The capital market in China is undergoing structural changes that support the integration of technology and industry, enhancing the financing environment for innovative enterprises [32][34] - The role of the capital market in facilitating technology innovation and industry transformation is highlighted, with a focus on improving service offerings for different stages of enterprise development [33][35] - Continued reforms in the capital market are necessary to enhance its attractiveness and competitiveness, particularly in supporting high-quality development [36][40]

Group 1: International Monetary System - The international monetary system is evolving towards a multipolar structure, which can enhance the resilience of the system and maintain global economic stability [2][3] - Discussions on reforming the monetary system focus on reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency and exploring the use of a supranational currency, such as the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) [2][3] - SDR is seen as a potential solution to the inherent issues of a single sovereign currency, offering greater stability and the ability to better fulfill global public goods functions [3] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment System - The cross-border payment system is crucial for international trade and financial stability, but traditional systems face challenges such as inefficiency and high costs [4][5] - There is a growing trend towards diversification in the cross-border payment system, with more countries using local currencies for settlements and new payment systems emerging [4] - Emerging technologies like blockchain and distributed ledger technology are reshaping the payment landscape, enabling faster and more efficient cross-border transactions [5] Group 3: Global Financial Stability System - The global financial stability system has evolved post-2008 financial crisis, but it faces new challenges such as fragmented regulatory frameworks and insufficient oversight of emerging financial sectors [6][7] - There is a need for stronger international cooperation to prevent regulatory arbitrage and enhance the stability of the financial system [6] - Strengthening the IMF as a core institution for global financial safety is essential for crisis prevention and resolution [7] Group 4: Governance of International Financial Organizations - Calls for reform in international financial organizations are increasing, as current governance structures do not reflect the economic realities of emerging markets and developing countries [8] - Adjusting the voting rights and quotas in organizations like the IMF is crucial for enhancing the representation and voice of these countries [8] - The legitimacy and effectiveness of international financial organizations depend on their ability to adapt to the changing global economic landscape [8]

Group 1: Global Financial Governance - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum highlighted the importance of global financial governance, focusing on the international monetary system, cross-border payment systems, global financial stability, and governance of international financial organizations [2][4][5] - The international monetary system is evolving, with discussions on reducing reliance on a single sovereign currency and promoting a multipolar currency system to enhance global financial stability [6][7] - The role of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) as a potential super-sovereign currency was discussed, emphasizing its ability to provide stability and act as a global public good [8][9] Group 2: Cross-Border Payment Systems - The cross-border payment system is essential for international trade and investment, facing challenges such as inefficiency and high costs in traditional methods [9][10] - There is a trend towards diversification in cross-border payment systems, with more countries using local currencies for transactions and new payment infrastructures emerging [10] - Emerging technologies like blockchain are reshaping cross-border payments, enhancing efficiency and posing regulatory challenges [10] Group 3: Global Financial Stability - The global financial stability framework has been strengthened post-2008 financial crisis, with enhanced crisis response mechanisms and regulatory frameworks [12][13] - New challenges include fragmented regulatory frameworks and insufficient oversight of emerging financial sectors like digital finance and non-bank intermediaries [14] - A call for a robust global financial safety net centered around the IMF was made to ensure effective crisis prevention and resolution [14] Group 4: International Financial Organization Governance - The governance of international financial organizations like the IMF needs reform to better reflect the economic realities of emerging markets and developing countries [15][16] - The importance of enhancing the IMF's crisis response capabilities and ensuring its governance structure is representative of its member countries' economic standings was emphasized [16][17] Group 5: Capital Market Development - The capital market in China is undergoing structural changes to better support technological and industrial innovation, with a focus on enhancing the financing ecosystem for tech companies [21][24] - The integration of capital markets with technological innovation is crucial for fostering a conducive environment for startups and established firms alike [22][23] - Recent reforms aim to improve the adaptability and inclusiveness of the capital market, facilitating better access to funding for innovative enterprises [26][30] Group 6: Financial Opening and Cooperation - The forum underscored the significance of financial openness and cooperation as a means to enhance global economic stability and growth [35][36] - China's financial market is seen as a fertile ground for foreign investment, with significant opportunities in consumption finance and technology sectors [37][38] - The commitment to high-level financial openness and the establishment of a mutually beneficial financial ecosystem was reiterated [40][41]