而在这种高度不确定的背景下，市场价格的下跌并不自动等于机会。他甚至提醒我们：现在正处于判断 最困难的阶段——不是该贪婪，亦不是该恐惧，而是要承认"我们连自己的预测正确率都低于历史任何 时刻"。 即便如此，马克斯仍在信贷市场中看到了相对的确定性。相比动荡的股市估值，信贷资产的回报路径更 加可预期。 他指出，在过去47年非投资级信贷的经验中，约99%的发行人都履行了承诺。在宏观变量充满不确定 的时刻，这种由契约支撑、违约代价明确的资产，或许正体现出一种"以静制动"的投资逻辑。 关税不仅搅乱了经济、市场，也搅乱了全球人心。 "这是我职业生涯中，见过最大的一次环境转变。" 橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯 在美东时间4月 4日接受彭博访谈中的这句判断，揭示了一个正被深刻重构的时代。 从贸易摩擦到关税升级，全球经济秩序正处于被巨力搅乱的阶段。 马克斯直言： "我们过去假设未来会像过去，但这一次，没有人知道六个月后的规则会是什么。" 他的核心观点不是判断市场是否便宜，而是指出当前环境下， "对未来的可知性比过往任何时候都更 低" 。 邓普顿所说"在最悲观的时候买入"或许仍有效，但马克斯的提醒是：我们可能还没到那个"最悲观 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that Trump's foreign policy does not fundamentally overturn the traditional U.S. diplomatic approach but rather reflects a more overt expression of the long-standing U.S. hegemonic nature in international relations [1][4][6]. Group 1: U.S. Foreign Policy Under Trump - Trump's administration has been characterized by a series of "America First" policies, which include imposing tariffs, withdrawing from international agreements, and exerting pressure on allies, suggesting a return to a more isolationist stance reminiscent of 19th-century imperialism [2][3][8]. - The administration's actions, such as the imposition of 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, reflect a protectionist ideology that has historical precedents in U.S. foreign policy [2][6]. - Trump's rhetoric about making Canada the "51st state" and threats to annex Greenland illustrate a revival of imperialistic tendencies in U.S. diplomacy [3][5]. Group 2: Historical Context and Continuity - The article highlights that many of Trump's foreign policy actions have historical parallels, such as previous administrations' withdrawal from international organizations and the use of economic leverage to achieve political goals [4][6]. - Notable examples include Reagan's and Obama's administrations, which also exhibited similar tendencies to withdraw support from international bodies when U.S. interests were perceived to be compromised [4][6]. - The historical context of U.S. interventions, such as the CIA's involvement in the overthrow of Congolese Prime Minister Lumumba, underscores a long-standing pattern of prioritizing resource control and geopolitical interests over international norms [6][8]. Group 3: The Nature of "America First" - The concept of "America First" is portrayed as a consistent theme in U.S. foreign policy, driven by a desire to maintain hegemony and respond to perceived threats to national interests [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that the current administration's more blatant embrace of "America First" reflects a response to declining U.S. power and rising anxieties among the elite and the general populace [8]. - The article posits that the roots of Trump's policies can be traced back to historical U.S. expansionism and a self-serving interpretation of democracy that justifies unilateral actions on the global stage [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for bottom-up reforms in the U.S. and highlights the challenges faced by both Trump's and Musk's reform initiatives, suggesting that these reforms may carry tragic elements due to suppressed reform vitality [3][4]. Group 1: Bottom-Up Reforms - The article emphasizes that bottom-up reforms are more aligned with social structures, where people are willing to sacrifice short-term interests for long-term certainty [3]. - The concentration of political power in the U.S. stifles the vitality of bottom-up reforms, leading to a perception that both Musk's and Trump's reforms are tragic in nature [3]. Group 2: DOGE's Strategic Goals - DOGE aims to achieve a $1 trillion reduction in spending by July 2026, coinciding with the 250th anniversary of the U.S. [4]. - The reforms are seen as crucial for the upcoming midterm elections, as effective reforms could influence voter support for Trump and the Republican Party [4]. Group 3: Spending Cuts and Bureaucratic Efficiency - DOGE's initial focus is on eliminating bureaucratic inefficiencies, particularly targeting departments associated with leftist ideologies, such as USAID [5]. - The article outlines a strategic retreat from globalist policies, emphasizing the need to reduce unnecessary foreign expenditures and focus on domestic strength [5]. Group 4: Reform Implementation Challenges - The article details the three-step process Musk used for layoffs at Twitter, which serves as a model for DOGE's approach to federal workforce reductions [8]. - The first phase of federal workforce reduction has seen approximately 77,000 employees agree to a buyout plan, representing about 3.8% of federal employees [9]. Group 5: Comprehensive Reform Goals - The overarching goal of the "Trump-Musk combination" is comprehensive government reform, including cuts to defense, healthcare, and social security spending [10]. - The article argues that previous analyses underestimated the determination and potential impact of these reforms, suggesting that no area is off-limits for cuts [11]. Group 6: Economic Implications and Challenges - Recent economic data has sparked discussions about the potential negative impacts of Trump's policies, leading to expectations of a "mini-recession" [16]. - The article notes that the ongoing government layoffs may not be quickly offset by private sector job growth, potentially leading to broader economic implications [17].