宏观经济政策

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我国7月制造业PMI出炉经济总体产出保持扩张
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-07-31 18:59
Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is reported at 49.3%, indicating a slight contraction, while the non-manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, suggesting overall economic expansion in China [1] - The production index remains in the expansion zone at 50.5%, despite a 0.5 percentage point decline from the previous month, indicating ongoing manufacturing activity [1] - Extreme weather conditions, including heatwaves and floods, have impacted outdoor construction and daily life, affecting market demand [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the stabilization and recovery of manufacturing market prices are primarily driven by the basic raw materials sector, with recent price index trends showing improved market price coordination [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to turn positive month-on-month in July, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to approximately -3.0%, influenced by rising prices of coal and steel [2] - Manufacturing enterprises continue to face operational pressures, and while measures to counteract excessive low-cost competition may alleviate supply-demand mismatches, the sustainability of these effects depends on a consistent recovery in demand [2] Group 3 - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need for stable and flexible economic policies to promote employment, businesses, and market expectations, aiming to achieve the annual economic and social development goals [3] - With the implementation of various policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, investment and consumption activities in China are expected to steadily recover [3] - Positive factors such as high-end manufacturing, green transformation, and digital upgrades are anticipated to gradually improve the manufacturing sector's prosperity, supporting the goal of around 5.0% economic growth for the year [3]
中央政治局会议透露哪些经济信号?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 14:25
Group 1: Economic Policy Focus - The central government emphasizes maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight in economic policies for the second half of the year [2][5] - Key areas of focus include stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, as well as implementing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [2][5] - The government aims to effectively release domestic demand potential and implement actions to boost consumption, while also ensuring the stability of foreign trade and investment [2][5] Group 2: Structural Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - Monetary policy will increasingly focus on small and micro enterprises, with specific measures such as re-loans, targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts, and expansion of inclusive small and micro loan support tools [5][6] - The government plans to accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds to improve funding efficiency, which is crucial for supporting local governments and ensuring basic livelihood protections [5][6] Group 3: Consumption and Service Sector Growth - The government aims to release domestic demand potential and cultivate new growth points in service consumption, with a focus on improving consumer confidence and expanding consumption demand [8][9] - Recent data shows a decline in consumer spending growth, indicating the need for further measures to stimulate consumption, particularly in the service sector [8][9] Group 4: Market Competition and Regulation - The meeting highlights the importance of optimizing market competition order and addressing disorderly competition among enterprises, marking a significant shift in regulatory focus [11][13] - The government is committed to promoting a unified national market and addressing issues such as low-price competition and local protectionism to foster a fair business environment [11][13]
中共中央政治局会议释放了哪些重要信号?专家解读→
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 12:04
Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need to maintain a stable and progressive approach to economic work in the second half of the year, ensuring policy continuity and flexibility to achieve the annual economic and social development goals [3][5] - The macroeconomic policy focus will be on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a strong emphasis on the people's livelihood [7][9] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting consumption and developing service consumption, as consumer demand continues to be released and market supply improves [10][12] - Experts noted that service consumption is becoming a major direction for consumption upgrades, and the government aims to cultivate new growth points in this area to enhance people's quality of life and expand overall consumption [14][16] - The development of service consumption is crucial for meeting livelihood needs, upgrading the consumption industry, and creating new consumption scenarios, which will facilitate both domestic and international economic circulation [18]
瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250731
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 09:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 31, the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 1045.5, down 7.97% and hitting the daily limit. After several macro - events settled, market sentiment weakened. Fundamentally, mine - end inventory generally decreased, clean coal inventory shifted from upstream mines and coal - washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises, import cumulative growth rate declined for 3 consecutive months, and total inventory increased for 4 consecutive weeks with a moderately high inventory level. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On July 31, the coke 2509 contract closed at 1601.0, down 4.93%. The spot market started the fifth round of price increase. After the Politburo meeting on July 30, there was no obvious incremental policy expectation, and with the impact of position limits, the market became cautious about high prices. Fundamentally, raw - material inventory rebounded, this period's hot - metal output was 242.23 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons, with high hot - metal production and no pressure on coal - mine inventory, and the total coking coal inventory increased for 4 consecutive weeks. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 54 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price was 1045.50 yuan/ton, down 71.50 yuan; J main contract closing price was 1601.00 yuan/ton, down 75.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract holding volume was 783278.00 lots, down 10291.00 lots; J futures contract holding volume was 50815.00 lots, down 241.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 108407.00 lots, down 14621.00 lots; net position of the top 20 coke contracts was - 6493.00 lots, up 874.00 lots [2]. - JM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 89.50 yuan/ton, down 26.00 yuan; J 1 - 9 month contract spread was 53.50 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00; coke warehouse receipts were 760.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 1000.00 yuan/ton, down 13.00 yuan; Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 143.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported main coking coal was 1550.00 yuan/ton, up 130.00 yuan; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced main coking coal was 1680.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1420.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur main coking coal was 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis was 9.00 yuan/ton, up 75.50 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price was 1080.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis was 354.50 yuan/ton, up 71.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Raw coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants was 277.10 million tons, down 15.43 million tons; clean coal inventory of 110 coal - washing plants was 166.39 million tons, down 9.23 million tons [2]. - Operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants was 61.51%, down 0.80%; raw coal output was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 million tons [2]. - Coal and lignite import volume was 3304.00 million tons, down 300.00 million tons; daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 193.60 million tons, down 1.20 million tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports was 512.04 million tons, down 41.46 million tons; coke inventory at 18 ports was 250.33 million tons, down 2.38 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 985.38 million tons, up 56.27 million tons; total coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 80.12 million tons, down 7.43 million tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide was 799.51 million tons, up 8.41 million tons; coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide was 639.98 million tons, up 0.99 million tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 12.75 days, up 0.12 days; available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills was 11.45 days, down 0.01 days [2]. - Coking coal import volume was 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; coke and semi - coke export volume was 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons [2]. - Coking coal output was 4070.27 million tons, up 144.11 million tons; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.45%, up 0.44% [2]. - Ton - coke profit of independent coking plants was - 54.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan; coke output was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, unchanged; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.78%, down 0.14% [2]. - Crude steel output was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to study suggestions on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development [2]. - The US will impose a 15% tariff on South Korea, a 40% additional tariff on Brazil (total tariff reaching 50%), and a 25% tariff on goods from India [2]. - The International Energy Agency predicts that global electricity demand will grow strongly, with an expected growth of 3.3% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026 [2]. - The Bank of Canada maintained the key policy rate at 2.75% for the third consecutive time and said the risk of a serious escalation of the global trade war has weakened [2].
强化民生导向 在保障改善民生中扩大消费需求 | 中共中央政治局会议解读
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-07-31 08:25
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the meeting is to analyze the current economic situation and deploy economic work for the second half of the year, aiming for a successful conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the initiation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The meeting emphasizes the need to maintain a stable and progressive work approach, ensuring policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to achieve annual economic and social development goals [3][5] - The macroeconomic policy focus includes stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a continuous strengthening of the policy's orientation towards people's livelihoods [7] Group 2 - The meeting highlights the importance of boosting consumption and developing service consumption, indicating that while expanding commodity consumption, new growth points in service consumption should be cultivated [10][12] - Experts note that service consumption is increasingly significant as living standards rise, and it is a primary direction for consumption upgrading, which aligns with the public's aspirations for a better life [14][16] - Service consumption plays a crucial role in meeting livelihood needs, promoting consumption industry upgrades, and creating new consumption scenarios, which is beneficial for achieving a virtuous cycle of internal and external circulation [18]
强化民生导向 在保障改善民生中扩大消费需求 | 中共中央政治局会议解读↓
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-07-31 07:02
央视网消息:7月30日,中共中央政治局召开会议,分析研究当前经济形势,部署下半年经济工作。专家表示,这次会议对于"十四五"圆满收 官,开启"十五五"新局面作出了细致部署,指明了重要方向。 国家发展改革委国家信息中心研究员魏琪嘉表示,在稳企业、稳就业、对低收入群体的保障方面,要加大政策力度,进一步体现政策民生温 度,为整个发展创造一个良好的环境。 提振消费 大力发展服务消费 会议指出做好下半年经济工作,要坚持稳中求进工作总基调,保持政策连续性稳定性,增强灵活性预见性,努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任 务,实现"十四五"圆满收官。特别是,宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。 中国宏观经济研究院院长黄汉权表示,上半年,我国经济增长实现良好开局、平稳增长,这都得益于实施了更加积极有为的宏观政策。为了下 半年保持经济持续稳定增长,需要在政策方面保持持续性和稳定性。如果下半年会发生一些变化,跟上半年有不一样的地方,这种情况下就必 须要增加政策灵活性,要使得政策更加精准发力。 从宏观经济政策的着力点上来看,会议强调,着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期,宏观经济政策的民生导向不断强化。 2025年以来,居民消费需求持续释放,市场供给 ...
7月政治局会议解读:经济乐观预期,政策灵活储备
Great Wall Securities· 2025-07-31 04:40
Economic Outlook - The overall economic development is viewed more optimistically, with the second quarter GDP growth at 5.2%, indicating a strong performance against external uncertainties[1][7] - The meeting's language shifted from "external shocks increasing" to "reducing negative impacts from external uncertainties," suggesting positive signals in China-US trade relations[1][7] Policy Adjustments - Macro policy is now described as "sustained efforts and timely enhancements," indicating a continued loose policy stance but with less urgency for immediate action[2][8] - The focus is on improving the efficiency of government bond issuance and maintaining liquidity to lower financing costs, with a macro leverage ratio exceeding 300% in Q2[2][8] Fiscal and Monetary Coordination - Emphasis on the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to prevent idle capital while ensuring sufficient liquidity[2][8] - The likelihood of additional government bond issuance in the second half of the year is reduced due to optimistic economic forecasts, although actual economic conditions may still necessitate it[2][8] Structural Reforms - The meeting highlighted the need for deepening reforms to enhance industrial quality and efficiency, with potential policies aimed at optimizing capacity and stabilizing prices[3][9] - There is a shift in real estate policy focus from new developments to urban renewal, which may better stimulate demand in the existing housing market[3][9] Risks and Observations - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic macroeconomic policies and the possibility of concentrated credit events[3][9] - The third quarter is identified as a critical observation window for assessing the effectiveness of these policies and their impact on the economy[3][9]
美国?季度GDP增速超预期,中国经济展现活?和韧性,能化延续震荡
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 03:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry. However, the outlook suggests that the energy and chemical sector will continue to fluctuate, and some chemical products with high inventories may face pressure and are suitable for short - allocation [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US second - quarter GDP growth rate exceeded expectations, and the Chinese economy showed vitality and resilience. The energy and chemical sector continued to fluctuate. Geopolitical factors and economic data influenced the prices of energy and chemical products. The high - level meeting in China indicated good economic indicators, which may reduce the possibility of introducing economic stimulus policies, dragging down the demand side of commodities and energy chemicals to some extent [1][2]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical support continued, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. - **Main Logic**: The US imposed new sanctions on Iranian oil, and concerns about Trump's possible increased sanctions on Russia continued. Geopolitical factors drove oil prices. High refinery operations in China and the US and strong margins provided support, but OPEC + was in a period of rapid production increase, and supply pressure was still present. - **Outlook**: The strong reality dominated by high refinery operations at home and abroad and the weak expectation dominated by supply pressure balanced each other, and oil prices fluctuated. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [9]. 3.2 LPG - **Viewpoint**: The support from the cost side weakened, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remained loose, and the PG futures market might fluctuate weakly [2]. 3.3 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices rose, it was a good time for short - sellers of asphalt to enter the market. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil price rebounds drove asphalt price increases. The spot market of asphalt was stronger in the north than in the south, and the futures market might shift from Shandong - based pricing to East and South China - based pricing. The demand side was weak, and the valuation of asphalt was relatively high. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt was over - valued, and the monthly spread of asphalt might decline as the number of warehouse receipts increased [11]. 3.4 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil rebounded following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation was affected. The supply of heavy oil increased, and the three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil were weakening. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil was expected to increase and demand to decrease. Geopolitical upgrades would only cause short - term price fluctuations, and high - sulfur fuel oil would fluctuate weakly [12]. 3.5 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures rebounded following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It followed the trend of crude oil. Although the diesel cracking spread increased, low - sulfur fuel oil faced negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel oil substitution. The supply was expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it would maintain a low - valuation operation. - **Outlook**: Affected by green fuel substitution and limited demand for high - sulfur fuel oil substitution, but with a low current valuation, it would fluctuate following crude oil [13]. 3.6 PX - **Viewpoint**: It returned to the fundamental pricing logic, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations. - **Main Logic**: The impact of commodity sentiment subsided, and the market returned to fundamental pricing. Many PX plants were scheduled to restart in August, and new PTA plants were put into operation, so the supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and there was limited upward or downward space. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of US secondary sanctions on Russia on oil prices [14]. 3.7 PTA - **Viewpoint**: New plants were put into operation, and the repair of processing fees was blocked. - **Main Logic**: The supply and demand of PTA both increased, but the marginal supply - demand relationship was still weak, and the repair of processing fees was blocked. The price would follow the cost of upstream products, and the processing fees might improve after large - scale plant maintenance in early August. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of large - scale plant maintenance at the beginning of August [15]. 3.8 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil rebounded, the price of pure benzene increased slightly. - **Main Logic**: The price of pure benzene increased slightly following the rebound of crude oil. The fundamental situation of pure benzene improved in the third quarter, but the rebound was limited by inventory pressure. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate [16]. 3.9 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The commodity sentiment cooled down, while crude oil prices broke through. Styrene fluctuated within a narrow range. - **Main Logic**: The fundamental situation of pure benzene improved, but it did not strongly support styrene. Styrene's own supply - demand was expected to weaken, and port inventories were accumulating. - **Outlook**: Although styrene inventories at ports were increasing recently, the inventories of the upstream and downstream of the industry chain were not high. If the macro - sentiment continued to improve, there might be inventory replenishment in the industry chain, which could support the market. Attention should be paid to changes in commodity sentiment [19]. 3.10 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: The fundamental driving force was limited, and typhoons affected the arrival rhythm of goods. - **Main Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol changed little. Although the demand increased slightly due to the rising polyester load, the supply was expected to increase in August, and the market was in a wide - balance state. Typhoons affected port inventories, but there was still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the medium term. - **Outlook**: There was an expectation of an inventory inflection point [20]. 3.11 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: It followed the trend passively. - **Main Logic**: Under the fluctuating raw material prices, the supply - demand of short - fiber changed little, and it mainly followed the upstream products. The downstream sales were still not good. - **Outlook**: The processing fees of short - fiber would remain stable, and the absolute price would follow the raw materials [22]. 3.12 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: It returned to the cost - pricing model. - **Main Logic**: With the fluctuating upstream polyester raw materials, the price of bottle - chip was mainly determined by cost, and its own supply - demand changed little, and the processing fees were weak. - **Outlook**: The processing fees of bottle - chip had support at the bottom, and the absolute price would follow the raw materials [23]. 3.13 PP - **Viewpoint**: There was still some macro - support, and PP fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: Short - term oil price increases and positive signals from the macro - level provided support, but the supply side was expected to increase, and the demand side was weak. - **Outlook**: PP would fluctuate in the short term [31]. 3.14 Propylene - **Viewpoint**: It mainly followed the fluctuations, and PL might fluctuate in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The spot supply of propylene was abundant, and the enterprise inventory was controllable. The market followed the fluctuations of PP and methanol. Due to the new product listing and far - month contracts, the influence of spot was limited, and the market might fluctuate at a relatively high level. - **Outlook**: PL would fluctuate in the short term [32]. 3.15 Plastic - **Viewpoint**: As oil prices strengthened, plastic fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: Oil price increases, macro - uncertainties, and the pressure on the supply side and weak demand side of plastic itself affected the market. - **Outlook**: The short - term oil price increase and macro - uncertainties led to short - term fluctuations in the plastic 09 contract [30]. 3.16 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The policy expectation cooled down, and PVC mainly fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: There were no unexpected policies in the high - level meeting, and the market sentiment cooled down. The fundamental situation of PVC was under pressure, with increasing production, weak downstream demand, and an expected increase in costs. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment cooled down, and the futures price declined [35]. 3.17 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Supported by low inventories in Shandong, caustic soda fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment cooled down. The demand for caustic soda from the alumina industry increased marginally, but the overall supply was high. There was a balance between low inventories in Shandong and cost support. - **Outlook**: The policy expectation cooled down, and there was pressure from near - month warehouse receipts. The downward space of caustic soda was limited [35]. 3.18 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Port inventories were accumulating, and methanol fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: The futures price of methanol fluctuated. Port inventories increased, and the actual impact of policies was limited. The production profit was relatively high, and there was still a negative feedback expectation in the downstream olefin industry. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate in the short term [26]. 3.19 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The supply was strong and the demand was weak. The sentiment was temporarily boosted, and exports supported the market. Urea fluctuated in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The spot price increased, but the fundamental situation of supply - demand remained unchanged, with strong supply and weak demand. The market was expected to fluctuate due to the influence of coal policies. - **Outlook**: In the context of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamental support was limited. The market sentiment temporarily boosted the price, and the futures price of urea would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the development after the market returned to fundamentals [26]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring 4.1 Inter - Period Spread - The report provided the latest values and changes of inter - period spreads for various energy and chemical products, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. These data reflected the price differences between different delivery months of each variety [37]. 4.2 Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The report presented the basis and the number of warehouse receipts for each variety, such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, PX, etc., which were important indicators for analyzing the relationship between the spot and futures markets [38]. 4.3 Inter - Variety Spread - The report showed the latest values and changes of inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between PP and 3MA, TA and EG, etc., which helped to understand the relative price relationships between different energy and chemical products [39].
政策“不松劲”、消费“有新招”、市场“反内卷”——中央政治局会议定调下半年经济工作
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-07-31 02:26
央视网消息:7月30日,中共中央政治局召开会议,分析研究当前经济形势,部署下半年经济工作。专家表示,这次会议对于"十四五"圆 满收官,开启"十五五"新局面作出了细致部署,指明了重要方向。 会议指出做好下半年经济工作,要坚持稳中求进工作总基调,保持政策连续性稳定性,增强灵活性预见性,努力完成全年经济社会发展目 标任务,实现"十四五"圆满收官。特别是,宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。 中国宏观经济研究院院长 黄汉权:上半年我们的经济增长实现了良好的开局,平稳的增长,这都得益于我们实施了更加积极有为的宏观 政策。所以为了下半年要保持经济持续稳定增长,需要我们在政策方面要保持它的持续性和稳定性。下半年会发生一些变化,跟上半年有不一 样的地方,这种情况下就必须要增加政策的灵活性,要使得我们的政策更加精准发力。 中国宏观经济研究院院长 黄汉权:我们的服务消费的占比越来越高,而且随着我们的生活水平的提高,服务消费是消费升级的主要的方 向,这种情况下,中央政治局的会议也提出,下半年我们在继续扩大商品消费的同时,要注重培育服务消费新的增长点。 专家表示,培育服务消费新增长点既能够改善民生,符合老百姓对美好生活的向往,同时又能够扩 ...
中共中央政治局会议释放了哪些重要信号?专家解读
Yang Shi Xin Wen Ke Hu Duan· 2025-07-31 00:57
Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight to achieve economic goals for the year [2][3] - The macroeconomic policy will focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with a strong emphasis on the livelihood orientation of policies [2][3] - There is a need to boost consumer confidence and continue implementing special actions to stimulate consumption, as the recovery of the consumption market still requires solid foundations [2][3] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the importance of expanding service consumption as a new growth point while also increasing commodity consumption [3][4] - Service consumption is seen as a key driver for improving livelihoods and promoting consumption industry upgrades, which will help achieve a rapid growth in overall consumption [3][4] - The construction of a unified national market is essential for building a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development [4][5] Group 3 - The meeting called for specific arrangements to deepen the construction of a unified national market, optimizing market competition order and regulating chaotic competition among enterprises [4][5] - There is a focus on controlling new production capacity and optimizing existing capacity in industries facing severe competition, as well as regulating local government investment behaviors [5] - Strengthening the role of price regulation and quality standards is crucial for allowing high-quality products to thrive in the market [5]