目前，特朗普急于推动与印度达成一项临时贸易协议，这份协议将为未来美印双方的谈判留下更大的余地，允许印度在解决剩余问题上拥有更多的时间，并 希望在秋季能够达成更为广泛的贸易协议。从美国的立场来看，他们愿意将关税基准设定在20%以下，并愿意给印度一个"特权"，即在最终协议中继续保留 就关税水平进行磋商的措辞。 很明显，在关税谈判中做出让步，便成为了特朗普可以拿出来的筹码。印度作为美国"印太战略"中的重要组成部分，如果因为关税政策将印度推至对立面， 特朗普将不得不面对得不偿失的局面。因此，他迫不及待地踩下刹车，试图安抚印度，而这也算是莫迪在与美国这一轮较量中，首次在某种程度上"占据上 风"。可以说，特朗普这招以退为进的策略确实学得颇有心得。 此前，世界上还没有哪个国家享受到过这样的待遇，这表明特朗普确实是想通过签署美印贸易协议来尽快拉拢印度。最初，特朗普计划对印度征收26%的关 税，但如果彭博社的报道属实，特朗普这次的妥协显然是大幅让步。 特朗普之所以愿意做出如此重大的让步，主要有两个原因。首先，他急切希望能够取得某种成果。自从他上任以来，就一直提出对等关税政策，但到目前为 止，关税实施的日期屡次被推迟，特朗普自己 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration has resulted in only three countries—UK, Vietnam, and Cambodia—signing preliminary agreements with the US, leading to a postponement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy until August 1, indicating a failure of the trade strategy [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Agreements and Global Response - Since the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy in April, the Trump administration aimed to reshape global trade rules using economic leverage, but only three countries have engaged, while major economies like China, EU, Japan, South Korea, India, Canada, and Mexico have refused to cooperate [3][5]. - The three countries that signed agreements are highly dependent on exports to the US, indicating limited bargaining power, while significant economies are planning countermeasures [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact on the US - Major financial figures, including the Federal Reserve and Warren Buffett, have criticized the tariff policy as detrimental to US consumers and manufacturing, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 5.4% since the implementation of tariffs, and food prices increasing by 8.2% [5][7]. - The policy is seen as a tax on American households, leading to increased costs for imported goods, which could result in a slowdown in consumption, reduced corporate profits, and a cooling job market [7][9]. Group 3: International Relations and Trust - Traditional allies, including the EU, Japan, and South Korea, have expressed strong dissatisfaction with the US's approach, with the EU planning to implement counter-tariffs and Japan highlighting violations of WTO rules [9][11]. - The US's actions have led to a significant erosion of its diplomatic influence, with countries reassessing the long-term value of cooperation with the US [11][14]. Group 4: Shift in Global Economic Dynamics - The tariffs have catalyzed a shift towards "de-dollarization" and reduced reliance on the US, with trade among RCEP countries increasing by 17% and trade between the US and EU declining by 9.3% [14][16]. - Historical precedents indicate that aggressive tariff policies have previously led to significant global economic downturns, suggesting that the current situation may have similarly severe consequences [16][18].

Group 1 - Cambodia has signed a significant trade agreement with the United States, following Vietnam's recent strategy adjustment under trade pressure [1][3] - The agreement was reached through online discussions between Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister Sun Chanthol and U.S. Assistant Trade Representative for Southeast Asia and the Pacific, Sara B. Ellerman [1] - Cambodia's exports to the U.S. are valued at nearly $10 billion annually, while imports from the U.S. are only about $200 million, indicating a heavy reliance on the U.S. market [3] Group 2 - The U.S. is expected to impose strict regulations on the origin certification of goods exported from Cambodia, targeting potential "origin laundering" where Chinese goods are misrepresented as Cambodian [5] - The U.S. is likely to demand Cambodia to open its market, particularly in agricultural products, which may limit Cambodia's trade policy autonomy [5] - China's response to the U.S. trade strategies includes military exercises and a commitment to counteract any actions that harm its interests, signaling potential repercussions for Cambodia [7][8] Group 3 - Despite U.S. efforts to isolate China by courting Vietnam and Cambodia, the deep integration of these countries into China's supply chain suggests that the U.S. may face challenges in achieving its goals [8][9] - China's economic resilience and its appeal as a market remain strong, undermining U.S. tactics that rely on coercion and manipulation [9] - The completion of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations indicates a trend of Southeast Asian countries aligning with China's economic growth, which could counter U.S. influence in the region [9]

Group 1 - The announcement of a new trade agreement between the US and Vietnam has significant implications for international trade dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China relations [1][3] - Vietnam's concessions in the agreement, including a 20% tariff on its exports to the US while US goods enter Vietnam at zero tariffs, highlight the pressure smaller nations face in trade negotiations with the US [1][3] - The punitive 40% tariff on goods deemed "transshipped" through Vietnam indicates a strategic move by the US to prevent Chinese goods from entering the US market via Vietnam, thereby creating friction between China and Southeast Asian countries [1][4] Group 2 - Cambodia's agreement with the US to avoid a proposed 49% tariff reflects the economic pressures smaller countries face due to US trade policies, emphasizing their vulnerability in the global trade landscape [3][4] - Indonesia's intention to lower tariffs on key US imports and its plan to sign a $34 billion trade agreement with the US demonstrates a shift in trade relations in Southeast Asia, potentially benefiting the US supply chain [3][4] - The collaboration between Indonesia and the US in critical mineral sectors, such as nickel, aims to alleviate supply pressures on the US, showcasing the strategic importance of resource partnerships in the current trade environment [4][6] Group 3 - The evolving trade policies in Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Indonesia, are causing disruptions in the previously China-centric supply chains, indicating a shift in regional trade dynamics [4][6] - China's response to these trade pressures may involve utilizing international trade rules to protect its domestic industries, as seen in its anti-dumping measures against various countries [6][9] - The need for China to enhance economic cooperation with neighboring countries and strengthen its own supply chains is critical in mitigating the impacts of shifting trade policies and maintaining regional influence [6][9]

特朗普（资料图） 据新华社消息，7月2日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体"真实社交"上高调宣布：美国与越南达成贸易协议。仅仅72小时后，柬埔寨政府紧随其 后，于7月4日宣布与美国在关税谈判中达成协议。这两个东南亚国家在美国设定的7月9日对等关税暂缓期大限前，选择了快速妥协。 越南的协议堪称一场不对等的交易。根据特朗普的表述，越南将对美国商品全面取消关税，敞开市场大门。作为"回报"，美国将对越南输美 商品的关税从原先威胁的46%降至20%——但这仍远高于越南给予美国的零关税水平。更值得警惕的是，协议中明确规定：对经越南转口的 第三国商品将征收高达40%的重税。这一条款被广泛认为直指中国产业链。过去数年，为规避美国对华高关税，不少中企通过在越设厂组装 或贴牌再出口美国。40%的关税几乎掐断了这种迂回路径，迫使产业链直面冲击。 特朗普（资料图） 柬埔寨的让步同样充满无奈。这个被中国网友亲切称为"柬钢"的国家，此前面临美国开出的49%超高关税——这是特朗普政府针对东南亚国 家提出的最高税率。2024年柬埔寨262亿美元的出口总额中，近四成销往美国。如此重度依赖，使得柬埔寨在谈判中筹码有限。虽然协议具 体税率尚未公布，但分析 ...

Group 1 - The United States has reached a new trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on all goods from Vietnam while allowing zero-tariff market access for U.S. goods to Vietnam [1] - The agreement comes just days before the expiration of a 90-day tariff suspension period under Trump's "reciprocal tariff policy," which could lead to increased tariffs on exports from dozens of countries to the U.S. [1] - Goods from third countries that are transshipped through Vietnam to the U.S. will incur a 40% tariff, aimed at preventing circumvention of U.S. trade barriers [1] Group 2 - Trump highlighted the potential for large displacement vehicles, such as SUVs, to become bestsellers in the Vietnamese market, indicating a positive outlook for U.S. automotive exports [3] - Following the announcement, Lululemon Athletica's stock experienced volatility due to its reliance on Vietnam as a major production hub, but the market quickly adjusted, leading to a 0.75% increase in its stock price [3]

【导读】美国跟越南敲定了贸易协议 中国基金报记者 泰勒 关税大消息来了！ 北京时间7月2日晚间，美国总统特朗普宣布，已与越南达成一项贸易协议。这是在两国经过数周紧张的外交磋商后取得的结 果，也是在下周最后期限之前的关键时刻作出的 宣布 。若未能及时达成协议，美国原计划对越南进口商品加征更高的关税。 特朗普周三在" Truth Social "平台发布声明称："我刚刚与越南达成了一项贸易协议，详情将随后公布。" 根据特朗普周三在社交媒体上的声明，依据该协议， 越南出口至美国的商品，将需向美国缴纳20%的关税，而所谓"转口"贸易的商品 则将被征收40%的关税。 同时，特朗普称， 越南已同意取消对美国进口商品的所有关税。 继此前与英国和中国分别达成协议后，这是特朗普政府宣布的第三个贸易协议。各主要贸易伙伴均在7月9日的最后期限前，加 紧与美国达成贸易安排。 特朗普写道："换句话说，他们将'向美国开放市场'，这意味着我们可以以零关税的形式向越南销售产品。" 他还表示，这是在 与越共中央总书记苏林（To Lam）会晤后达成的协议。 今年4月初，特朗普在推出所谓"对等关税"政策时，曾对越南征收46%的关税，后将其下调至1 ...

Core Insights - The Trump administration's implementation of a reciprocal tariff policy resulted in additional tariffs ranging from 10% to 49% on most imported goods, which was later adjusted to a 10% rate due to market volatility [1][2] - The tariff policy led to a significant increase in tariff revenue, with April's revenue reaching $17.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 130%, and May's revenue surpassing $24 billion, a 270% increase, setting historical records [2] - Despite the increase in tariffs, inflation rates remained stable, with the core CPI showing a consistent year-on-year increase of around 2.8% since March, and the overall CPI rising only 2.4% in May [4] Tariff Revenue Analysis - Tariff revenue for June was projected to exceed $28 billion, indicating a continuous record-breaking trend over three months [2] - The 10% tariff rate appears to balance corporate profits while maintaining product supply in the U.S. market, thus enhancing tariff revenue [2] Inflation and Price Stability - The anticipated inflation surge did not materialize, with May's major goods showing only a 0.3% year-on-year price increase, and some goods, like televisions and smartphones, experiencing price declines of 9.8% and 14.3%, respectively [4][6] - The automotive sector, despite facing a 25% tariff, saw a minimal price increase of only 0.4% [4] Future Implications - U.S. importers have been stockpiling low-tariff goods prior to the policy implementation, which has temporarily masked the impact of the tariff increases on prices [6] - The delayed effect of price transmission through the supply chain suggests that the full impact of tariffs may not be felt until later, with July being a critical month [6] - Importers are currently absorbing some of the tariff costs, but this situation is unsustainable in the long term, especially if tariffs are further increased [6] - Predictions indicate that the average effective tariff rate may rise to 15% in the coming months, with core CPI expected to increase to between 3% and 3.5% by the end of 2025, suggesting potential future price pressures on consumers [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent G7 tax agreement appears to be a compromise between the US and its allies, but it reveals the US's strategic maneuvering to gain long-term benefits while temporarily conceding to its allies [1][3]. Group 1: Tax Agreement Details - The G7 agreement allows US tech giants to be exempt from the OECD's global minimum corporate tax rules, preventing them from paying back taxes in overseas markets [1][3]. - In exchange, the US Congress must repeal Section 899 of the US Competition Act, which authorizes the government to impose retaliatory tariffs on countries that discriminate against US companies [1][3]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The agreement is seen as a tactical retreat by the US to secure strategic cooperation from allies in economic containment against China [3][4]. - The negotiations were dominated by the US, which threatened to initiate a "301 investigation" against the EU's digital tax and impose tariffs on European goods, leading to swift concessions from European leaders [3][4]. Group 3: European Challenges - Europe faces a triple dilemma: ceding fiscal sovereignty, being bound by US policies towards China, and internal divisions among member states regarding their stance on China [4][6]. - The new tax agreement indirectly acknowledges the "super-national treatment" of US companies, resulting in significant annual tax losses for the EU [4][6]. Group 4: China's Response - China has implemented export controls on critical metals like gallium and germanium, which are essential for Western countries, highlighting its leverage in the trade conflict [9][11]. - The Chinese government is also working to divide the US-EU alliance by approving significant orders from Airbus while halting purchases from Boeing, demonstrating the potential costs of decoupling from China [9][11]. Group 5: Future Considerations - The sustainability of US concessions is uncertain, as historical patterns suggest that the US may revert to aggressive trade tactics if allies hesitate in their pressure on China [11]. - The potential for European strategic autonomy is being tested, with leaders like Macron advocating for independence from major powers, which could pose long-term risks for US influence [11].

Fiscal Impact - The new tariff policy has shown immediate revenue effects, with the U.S. Treasury collecting $17.43 billion in tariffs in the first month and $24 billion in May, a year-on-year increase of 270% [3] - By June 26, the cumulative tariff revenue reached $27.26 billion, with expectations to surpass $28 billion by the end of the month, indicating a significant increase in tax base without triggering trade shrinkage risks [3] Price Stability - Despite soaring tariff revenues, consumer prices have remained stable, with the core CPI growth staying below 3% for three consecutive months since March, and an overall CPI increase of only 2.4% in May [5] - The price of major consumer goods rose by just 0.3% in May, with significant price drops in televisions and smartphones, and even the automotive sector, which faced a 25% tariff, saw a price increase limited to 0.4% [5][7] Supply Chain Dynamics - Importers engaged in preemptive purchasing before the tariff implementation, creating a buffer of inventory that delayed price increases for several months [7] - The lag in supply chain adjustments means that the current consumer market reflects pre-tariff cost structures, with potential price impacts expected to manifest in the third quarter [7] Long-term Concerns - As inventory depletes, the ability of importers to absorb tariff costs will be tested, leading to inevitable cost pass-through to consumers [9] - Economic institutions are cautious about the long-term effects of the tariff policy, with predictions that the average effective tariff rate could rise to the 15% range by the end of the year, potentially pushing core CPI to 3% to 3.5% [9] Global Trade Implications - The U.S.-led tariff strategy is reshaping international trade dynamics, with emerging market economies facing challenges and multinational corporations adopting more conservative investment strategies [11] - The eventual adjustment of global supply chains and the pressure on importers' profit margins may lead U.S. consumers to confront the true costs of the tariff policy [11]