Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on urea is neutral. In terms of supply, summer maintenance has increased, leading to a decline in production; export profits are high, but export quotas have not been significantly relaxed. For demand, the autumn pre - sales of compound fertilizers have started, with a slow increase in the operating rate, and industrial demand is lukewarm. In the short term, domestic driving factors are not obvious, and attention should be paid to changes in export policies [4]. - The view on the month - spread is neutral to bullish. Opportunities for the month - spread to strengthen due to export boosts can continue to be monitored [4]. - The view on policies is neutral. There are market rumors about an increase in the export guidance price and the release of a new round of export quotas, but there is no definite news of a significant relaxation of exports [4]. - The view on the spot market is neutral. The operating rate of compound fertilizers is slowly increasing, but enterprise orders are stable, and trading is lukewarm [4]. - The view on inventory is neutral. Enterprise inventories continue to decline, while port inventories continue to rise. Some enterprise inventories are transferred to ports, and export demand supports the current urea price [4]. - The view on exports is neutral to bullish. International prices continue to rise, further increasing potential export profits. In June, urea exports reached 70,000 tons. Based on the significantly increased port inventories, export volumes may further increase. There are rumors that the second - batch export quotas have been released, but the export volume is still limited [4]. - The view on demand is neutral. Compound fertilizer enterprises are advancing autumn fertilizer orders as needed, with a slow increase in the operating rate. The demand for melamine is weak, and the operating rate may remain low. Domestic demand lacks imagination [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price Slightly Stabilized - Domestic agricultural demand is in the off - season. Although compound fertilizers have started autumn fertilizer production, the operating rate is rising slowly. There are market rumors that the pricing of the second - batch export quotas is high, resulting in fewer transactions of small and medium - sized particles and hindering small - package urea exports. Overall demand has not significantly increased, and enterprise sales are lukewarm [12]. - The export profit has further expanded. There are rumors that the second - batch quotas have been issued, and the export volume may increase [33]. Operating Rate May Remain High - Coal - based profits are still good. Summer maintenance has begun, causing the operating rate to decline, but it remains at a high level in recent years. According to Longzhong Information, some enterprises are under maintenance this period, and some are resuming production. Next week, one enterprise plans to shut down, and 4 - 5 shut - down enterprises' devices may resume production. The operating rate may slightly rebound, and supply pressure still exists [39]. Enterprises Continue to Reduce Inventory, and Port Aggregation Increases - This week, enterprise inventories continued to decline slightly. Low - price order receipts improved, but new order transactions were limited. Port inventories continued to rise, with large - particle goods arriving at Yantai Port and small - particle goods arriving at Rizhao, Tianjin, Zhenjiang, and Lianyungang Ports, while other ports showed no obvious changes [51]. Urea Profits Support High Operating Rates - Although coal prices have stabilized, they lack the basis for a continuous rebound. Coal - based urea still maintains high profits [60]. - As urea prices fluctuate at a low level, the profit of gas - based urea has almost disappeared [70]. Export Expectations May Improve - In June 2025, China exported a total of 4.29 million tons of various fertilizers, including 70,000 tons of urea, 1.86 million tons of ammonium sulfate, 510,000 tons of diammonium phosphate, and 170,000 tons of monoammonium phosphate. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative export of various fertilizers was 17.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.9%; the cumulative export amount was 4.069 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 25.9% [75]. Demand is Lukewarm - This week, the atmosphere in the compound fertilizer market has improved. The prices of raw materials, led by potash fertilizer, have risen. Autumn fertilizer pre - sales have started, and the market is oscillating strongly. The operating rate is slowly increasing. The prices of upstream synthetic ammonia are oscillating at a low level, while the prices of phosphate ammonium and potash fertilizer have risen. Urea prices remain range - bound. Currently, the sales of autumn fertilizers are the same as in previous years. In the short term, the supply and demand of compound fertilizers are stable, and price fluctuations are limited [85][91]. - The downstream demand for melamine is weak, and some panel factories have shut down for holidays. However, since the price is close to the cost, the downward space is also limited. Some large - scale devices in Sichuan and Xinjiang have resumed, and some devices in Xinjiang and Shandong are expected to resume next week. The operating rate of melamine may slightly increase [99][103]. Coal is Weak, and Gas is Strong - Recently, coal consumption has entered the peak season. High temperatures in many places have increased the power load, and coal demand has increased, leading to a stable rebound in prices. However, due to the increase in new - energy power generation squeezing thermal power demand and the high inventory of power plants, overall, coal prices lack the power for continuous upward movement [130]. - Synthetic ammonia shows a differentiated trend of falling in the north and rising in the south. In the northern market, supply has increased due to the resumption of maintenance enterprises, but demand has not increased, putting pressure on prices. In the southern market, affected by the increase in the operating rate of downstream phosphate fertilizer enterprises, low - price enterprises have started to raise their quotes [138]. Futures and Spot are Oscillating, and the Month - Spread is Slightly Strengthening - Recently, the number of warehouse receipts is significantly higher than in the same period in history [164]. Balance Sheet - Recently, there have been many maintenance operations, and production may decrease slightly month - on - month [169]. - The balance sheet shows the total supply, production, imports, total demand, and other data of urea from September 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in production, supply, and consumption [167].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term probability of an increase in urea production is high due to few short - term maintenance plans and some device restarts, despite a recent slight decrease in daily output caused by new device maintenance. [3] - Domestic agricultural demand is advancing slowly with limited rigid demand, and the autumn fertilizer production stage has begun. The compound fertilizer enterprise operating rate is rising steadily but slowly, and the melamine operating rate has rebounded but may be restricted by weak downstream demand. [3] - Some urea enterprise inventories are decreasing rapidly, and the overall inventory is mainly decreasing, though still much higher than the same period in previous years. The overall inventory reduction speed may weaken as previous export orders enter the later stage, but export expectations still support the price. [3] - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1750 - 1830 yuan/ton in the short term. [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1812 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is 32 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. [3] - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 195,949 lots, up 7,222 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 28,247 lots, down 605 lots. [3] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 2,523 lots, with no change. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1770, 1810, 1810, 1830, and 1820 yuan/ton respectively, all with varying increases. [3] - The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and China's main port are 437.5 and 435 US dollars/ton respectively, up 10 and 25 US dollars. [3] - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 18 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan. [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 54.1 tons, up 5.2 tons week - on - week; the enterprise inventory is 89.55 tons, down 7.22 tons week - on - week. [3] - The urea enterprise operating rate is 84.46%, down 0.8%; the daily urea output is 195,500 tons, down 1,900 tons. [3] - The urea export volume is 0, with no change; the monthly urea output is 6,031,340 tons, down 261,890 tons. [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 32.55%, up 2.72%; the melamine operating rate is 64.24%, up 1.68%. [3] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 91 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 490 yuan/ton, up 156 yuan. [3] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 416.82 tons, down 64.08 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,900 tons, up 900 tons. [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 89.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.22 tons or 7.46%. [3] - As of July 17, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 54.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.2 tons or 10.63%. [3] - As of July 17, China's urea output was 136.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.31 tons or 0.95%, and the average daily output was 19.55 tons, a decrease of 0.19 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 84.46%, down 0.80%. [3] 3.6 Suggestions - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level and enterprise inventory still around 750,000 tons. The top - dressing demand in July will support the price, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. The subsequent turnaround lies in exports. (View score: 0) [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Urea Futures Prices**: On July 17, compared with July 16, UR01 increased by 8 yuan/ton (0.58%), UR05 by 3 yuan/ton (0.17%), UR09 by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%), Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%), and Shanxi remained unchanged [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: On July 17, compared with July 16, Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.55%), Hebei by 10 yuan/ton (-0.56%), Northeast by 10 yuan/ton (-0.56%), and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.56%) [1]. - **Spread and Basis**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 7 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 increased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream Costs**: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Downstream Prices**: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. 3.2 Important Information The previous trading day, the urea futures main contract 2509 had an opening price of 1733 yuan/ton, a high of 1747 yuan/ton, a low of 1731 yuan/ton, a closing price of 1743 yuan/ton, a settlement price of 1740 yuan/ton, and a position of 198,012 lots [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy The previous trading day, UR fluctuated within a range and closed at 1743. The supply pressure of urea is large, and the subsequent turnaround depends on exports [1].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic urea market is experiencing a significant price increase due to multiple factors, including rising international prices, improved export expectations, and stable domestic demand [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of July 10, domestic urea spot prices rose by 10 to 30 yuan per ton, with further increases of 5 to 20 yuan per ton reported on July 12 [2]. - Urea futures prices have also increased, reflecting a bullish market sentiment [2]. - The main sales market's spot price increased from 1750 yuan per ton to over 1800 yuan per ton in the past week [2]. Group 2: International Market Influences - Recent Indian tender prices significantly exceeded market expectations, with East Coast prices reaching 495 USD per ton [3]. - The price in the Middle East and North Africa markets jumped to around 480 USD per ton, influenced by the Indian price increase [2][3]. - The domestic export guidance price for small granular urea reached 440 USD per ton, equivalent to approximately 3000 yuan per ton in the main production areas [2]. Group 3: Domestic Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic agricultural demand is entering a seasonal slowdown, but there remains some incremental demand in certain regions [2]. - The total port inventory of urea reached nearly 490,000 tons as of July 10, significantly higher than historical levels for the same period [2]. - Urea production in the previous week was reported at 198,000 tons per day, which is about 20,000 tons higher than the same period last year [3][4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate that international urea prices will remain high, with strong domestic export expectations stabilizing urea prices [5]. - In the medium to long term, the high profit margins for upstream coal-based urea producers may lead to sustained high production levels, putting pressure on future urea prices [5]. - The market is currently characterized by high supply, weak domestic demand, and strong export expectations, with a potential increase in production capacity of nearly 2 million tons expected to impact future supply dynamics [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The international urea price has boosted the sentiment of the domestic market. Although the current industrial demand is weak, export orders are still being shipped, and there is a partial increase in agricultural demand, with continuous inventory reduction. The nitrogen association has announced the export guidance price for urea. Overall, the international price is rising, and the domestic urea sentiment is also high. Supported by factory export orders and ongoing port collection, the futures market still has support and will remain mainly oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to export policy changes [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The futures market opened high and closed low, with a late - day plunge but still closing up. The spot price continued to rise, and the order - receiving situation was good. The daily production of urea changed little, and some previously overhauled devices were expected to resume production, increasing output. Both agricultural and industrial demand were cautious in purchasing, mainly for replenishing inventory as needed. Agricultural demand was better than industrial demand, and it was expected to end in the Northeast and North China this month. The compound fertilizer factory's operating load remained low, with only a slight increase. The factory was in the early stage of autumn fertilizer production, mainly clearing inventory, and was waiting and seeing, purchasing urea only as needed. Despite weak industrial demand, export orders were being shipped, and inventory was continuously decreasing. The nitrogen association announced the export guidance price for urea. The market was expected to be mainly oscillating with a slight upward trend in the short term [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1780 yuan/ton, fluctuated strongly during the day, and finally closed at 1777 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The trading volume was 208,229 lots, a decrease of 2,957 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 1,642 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,140 lots. Some futures companies' net long or net short positions changed [2] - **Spot**: The spot price continued to rise, and the order - receiving situation was good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei factories ranged from 1760 - 1820 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [4] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation rose, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis of the September contract was 73 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [7] - **Supply Data**: On July 10, 2025, the national daily urea production was 193,400 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.63% [10] - **Downstream Data**: From July 4th to July 10th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 29.83%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.56%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from the previous week [11] Warehouse Receipt Data - On July 10, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2,645, an increase of 400 compared to the previous trading day, with 400 more in Meishan Xindu [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In July, urea prices are still supported, and low - buying opportunities can be noted, but the subsequent turnaround depends on exports. The supply pressure of urea remains high, with upstream inventories close to 1 million tons. Although the top - dressing demand in July will support prices, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 in Shandong remained unchanged at 1682 yuan/ton; in Shanxi, it decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 1.81%. UR05 decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 1694 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.12%. UR09 increased by 9 yuan/ton to 1721 yuan/ton, a relative change of 0.53% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - In Henan, it remained unchanged at 1780 yuan/ton; in Hebei, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1790 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.56%; in the Northeast, it remained unchanged at 1890 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1800 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 0.55% [1]. Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 8 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2930 yuan/ton and 2520 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton, a relative change of - 1.89% [1]. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1707 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1728 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1693 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1721 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1710 yuan/ton. The position of 2509 was 238,027 lots [1].

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货增仓下跌，最终报收 1697（-31/-1.79%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价跌幅扩大，成交一般，河南出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1700-1710 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 172-1740 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1640-1710 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1760-1770 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1660-1670 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】6 月 9 日，尿素行业日产 20.51 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.64 万吨，较去 年同期增加 2.62 万吨；今日开工 89.18%，较去年同期 82.62%回升 6.56%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪依旧疲软，主流地区尿素现货出厂报报价跌幅扩大，成交一般。山 东地区主流出厂报价大幅领跌，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率降至低位，原料 库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业继续刚需采购，贸易商 出货为主，新单成交一般，代发告罄，预计出厂报价下跌为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低， 出厂报价大幅跟 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that demand was weak and ex - factory prices fell collectively. This week's view is that demand still lacks support and ex - factory prices are running weakly. Market sentiment remains weak, and the ex - factory quotes of urea spot in mainstream areas are stable with a downward trend [4]. - The daily output remains above 200,000 tons, at the highest level in the same period. The domestic supply is large, the demand is declining, and the urea enterprises are in the inventory accumulation stage again. The ex - factory price of urea has fallen to around 1,770 - 1,780 yuan/ton, and the market is pessimistic about the future, remaining weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to the results of next week's Indian tender [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overview - Market sentiment is weak, and the ex - factory quotes of urea in Shandong, Henan, and surrounding areas of the delivery area are expected to decline. The export details have been announced, but the domestic supply is large, and the overall demand is declining [4]. 2. Core Data Changes - Supply: In the 22nd week of 2025 (20250529 - 0604), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 92.94%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86%; that of gas - based urea was 78.15%, a week - on - week increase of 1.04%. The capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 85.27%, a week - on - week increase of 2.21% [5]. - Demand: In the 23rd week of 2025 (20250529 - 0605), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 64.31%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points from last week; the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer dropped to 37.13%, a decrease of 2.96 percentage points from last week. The arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 80,000 tons, a decrease of 6.67% from last week. As of June 6, 2025, the urea demand of Linyi compound fertilizer sample production enterprises was 1,180 tons, a week - on - week increase of 68.57%. As of June 4, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.47 days, a decrease of 0.41 days from the previous period [5]. - Inventory: As of June 4, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0354 million tons, an increase of 54,800 tons from last week. The sample inventory of urea ports was 205,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Valuation: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was weakly stable, the price of Yulin pulverized coal fell, and the urea spot price fell. The profit of fixed - bed production was 140 yuan/ton, that of coal - water slurry production was 340 yuan/ton, and that of entrained - flow bed production was 570 yuan/ton. The futures fell sharply, the basis was 50 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread converged to 50 yuan/ton [5].

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 5 月 22 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡偏弱，最终报收 1849（-9/-0.48%）。 今日，市场情绪依旧疲软，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价稳中下探，成交一般。山东 地区主流出厂报价回落，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率降至低位，原料库存充 裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业继续刚需采购，贸易商出货为 主，新单成交一般，代发告罄，预计出厂报价下跌为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂 报价坚挺，贸易商出货，收单量减少，成交乏力，待发充裕，预计出厂报价坚挺为主。 交割区周边区域出厂价稳中下跌，区内市场氛围表现一般，东北地区春耕结束，交投情 绪一般，农业刚需采购，期现商和贸易商低价出货，外发订单量下滑，新单成交受阻， 待发消耗，预计出厂价跟跌为主。检修装置回归，日均产量维持在 20 万吨附近，位于 同期最高水平。需求端，近期，相关部门召集尿素生产企业及协会开会讨论当前尿素出 口可行性，相关具体细节已经公布，当前国内外价差较大，关注国际价格变动对国内影 响。华中、华北地区复合肥生产积极性偏低，基层对高价货抵制，复合肥厂开工 ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 5 月 21 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪继续乏力，国内主流地区尿素现货出厂报价稳中下探，成交一般。 山东地区主流出厂报价稳中回落，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率降至低位，原 料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业继续刚需采购，贸易 商出货为主，新单成交一般，代发告罄，预计出厂报价下跌为主；河南地区市场情绪偏 低，出厂报价坚挺，贸易商出货，收单量减少，成交乏力，待发充裕，预计出厂报价坚 挺为主。交割区周边区域出厂价稳中下跌，区内市场氛围表现一般，东北地区春耕结束， 交投情绪一般，农业刚需采购，期现商和贸易商低价出货，外发订单量下滑，新单成交 受阻，待发消耗，预计出厂价跟跌为主。检修装置回归，日均产量维持在 20 万吨附近， 位于同期最高水平。需求端，近期，相关部门召集尿素生产企业及协会开会讨论当前尿 素出口可行性，相关具体细节已经公布，当前国内外价差较大，关注国际价格变动对国 内影响。华中、华北地区复合肥生产积极性偏低，基层对高价货抵制，复合肥厂开工率 高位回落，尿素库存可用天数在一周后，对原料采购情绪 ...