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百利好丨黄金投资暗藏“雷区”?揭秘风险管理秘籍!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-19 08:14
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the various risks associated with investing in spot gold, highlighting the importance of understanding these risks for potential investors in the volatile gold market [1]. Group 1: Market Risks - Price volatility risk is influenced by global economic conditions, geopolitical events, inflation expectations, and the strength of the US dollar, leading to significant fluctuations in gold prices [3]. - Liquidity risk can arise during extreme market conditions, such as panic selling or economic crises, potentially increasing transaction costs and losses [4]. - Financial risks include the risk of price declines, where short-term drops can lead to capital losses despite gold's long-term value retention [6]. - Leverage risk is present due to the margin system in spot gold trading, which can amplify both gains and losses, potentially leading to significant losses if market movements are unfavorable [8]. Group 2: Mitigation Strategies - To manage market risks, investors should monitor economic data, geopolitical developments, and central bank policies, while diversifying their investment portfolios to reduce the impact of single asset volatility [3]. - For liquidity risk, it is advisable to choose reputable trading platforms and brokers, and to manage funds wisely to avoid excessive leverage [5]. - To address financial risks, investors should control their positions, set stop-loss points based on risk tolerance, and consider dollar-cost averaging to smooth out price fluctuations [7]. - To mitigate leverage risk, it is recommended to use leverage cautiously, typically not exceeding a ratio of 1:10, and to maintain sufficient margin [9]. Group 3: Platform and Policy Risks - Platform risk arises from the potential for fraud or instability in trading platforms that lack proper regulation and credentials [10]. - Policy risk is associated with changes in national policies, such as monetary, tax, and regulatory measures, which can affect gold market supply and demand [12].
金融期货早班车-20250619
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 02:23
金融研究 2025年6月19日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现:6 月 18 日,A 股四大股指全线上涨,其中上证指数上涨 0.04%,报收 3388.81 点;深成 指上涨 0.24%,报收 10175.59 点;创业板指上涨 0.23%,报收 2054.73 点;科创 50 指数上涨 0.53%, 报收 968.18 点。市场成交 12,218 亿元,较前日减少 154 亿元。行业板块方面,电子(+1.5%),通信 (+1.39%),国防军工(+0.95%)涨幅居前;美容护理(-1.73%),房地产(-1.35%),建筑材料(-1.22%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看,IF>IC>IM>IH,个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,812/126/3,475。沪深两市,机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-57、-89、-8、155 亿元,分别变动+19、+30、-28、-21 亿 元。 交易策略:现券近期维持供强需弱的特征,但后市供强需弱的格局有望改变:一是 6 月政府债到期 规模有所增加,政府债净供给节奏或趋平缓;二是 7 月保险长端负债成本有调低的可能;三是国内 市场风险偏好回归防御风格, ...
金融期货早班车-20250612
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 01:56
Market Performance - On June 11, most of the four major A-share stock indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.52% to 3402.32 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.83% to 10246.02 points, and the ChiNext Index up 1.21% to 2061.87 points, while the STAR 50 Index fell 0.2% to 980.93 points. Market turnover was 1286.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 164.8 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, non-ferrous metals (+2.21%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+2.02%), and non-bank finance (+1.9%) led the gains, while pharmaceutical biology (-0.41%), communications (-0.28%), and beauty care (-0.1%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IF > IC > IH > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 3411/264/1737 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of -5, -45, -52, and 102 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +151, +159, -92, and -217 billion yuan respectively [2]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Trading Strategy - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 135.31, 105.35, 55.23, and 42.14 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -19.53%, -16.24%, -12.66%, and -13.97% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 5%, 5%, 1%, and 3% respectively. The futures - spot price difference remained at a low level [3]. - In the short term, due to the large discount of small - cap stock indices, which may be the result of the expansion of neutral product scale this year, and the relatively high proportion of short positions in neutral products, the deep discount may continue, leading to market fluctuations. A short - cycle band strategy is recommended. In the medium - to - long term, it is recommended to go long on the economy and allocate IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips. For near - month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro - cap stocks, which may drag down the IC and IM indices, so caution is advised [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Cash Bond and Trading Strategy - The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of -1.25bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.08, and an IRR of 1.83%. Similar data are provided for 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures [4]. - In the cash bond market, the supply is currently stronger than demand, but this pattern is expected to change. In the futures market, the CTD bond price of near - month contracts is low, and the IRR is high, so short - sellers have a strong willingness to deliver, putting pressure on near - month contract prices and causing far - month premiums. It is recommended to go long in the short term and short in the long term, buying T and TL on dips in the short term and hedging T and TL on rallies in the long term [4]. Economic Data - High - frequency data show that the recent import and export sentiment has rebounded [11].
6月9日电,上海黄金交易所发布通知称,近期影响市场不稳定的因素较多,贵金属价格波动剧烈。请各会员提高风险防范意识,继续做好风险应急预案,维护市场平稳运行。同时,提示投资者做好风险防范工作,合理控制仓位,理性投资。
news flash· 2025-06-09 05:43
智通财经6月9日电,上海黄金交易所发布通知称,近期影响市场不稳定的因素较多,贵金属价格波动剧 烈。请各会员提高风险防范意识,继续做好风险应急预案,维护市场平稳运行。同时,提示投资者做好 风险防范工作,合理控制仓位,理性投资。 ...
上市公司参与套保热情升温
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-06-05 16:25
Core Insights - The number of listed companies in the A-share market that issued hedging announcements increased significantly in April, driven by global trade tensions and uncertainty in external environments [1][2] - In the first four months of the year, 1,265 listed companies in the real economy issued hedging announcements, representing an increase of approximately 11% compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Summary by Category Increase in Hedging Announcements - In April 2025, 943 listed companies in the real economy issued 2,034 hedging announcements, an increase of 150 companies or about 19% compared to April 2024 [1] - The surge in hedging announcements is attributed to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and increased volatility in commodity prices and exchange rates [2] Characteristics of Hedging Participants - Approximately 70% of the 1,265 listed companies that issued hedging announcements in the first four months of the year were private enterprises [3] Risks Faced by Real Economy Enterprises - Real economy enterprises face multiple risks, including market risks (raw material price fluctuations, product price volatility, and exchange rate risks), supply chain risks (raw material shortages and rising logistics costs), and financial risks (cash flow issues and increased financing costs) [4] - Private enterprises are particularly sensitive to price risks due to their competitive nature and lack of resource advantages compared to state-owned enterprises [4] Motivation for Hedging - The core motivation for private enterprises to engage in hedging is profit maximization, as commodity price and exchange rate fluctuations directly impact their profits [5] - Regulatory environments allow private enterprises more freedom in hedging activities compared to state-owned enterprises, enabling them to respond quickly to market changes [5] Focus on Exchange Rate Risks - A significant number of listed companies (1,069) mentioned exchange rate risks in their hedging announcements in the first four months of the year [6] - Exchange rate fluctuations can directly affect the costs and revenues of import and export enterprises, making it a critical area of focus for risk management [6][7] Development of Hedging Tools - The maturity of exchange rate hedging tools, such as forward foreign exchange contracts and options, allows enterprises to manage risks effectively [7] - The ongoing development of the futures market in China is expected to enhance risk management capabilities for enterprises by providing a wider range of tools and solutions [7]
金融期货早班车-20250605
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 05:03
招商期货有限公司 市场表现:6 月 4 日,A 股四大股指全线上涨,其中上证指数上涨 0.42%,报收 3376.2 点;深成指 上涨 0.87%,报收 10144.58 点;创业板指上涨 1.11%,报收 2024.93 点;科创 50 指数上涨 0.45%, 报收 986.11 点。市场成交 11,774 亿元,较前日增加 136 亿元。行业板块方面,美容护理(+2.63%), 综合(+2.53%),纺织服饰(+2.41%)涨幅居前;交通运输(-0.58%),国防军工(-0.24%),公用事业 (-0.12%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看,IM>IC>IF>IH,个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,964/211/1,237。沪深两 市,机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 23、-26、-45、48 亿元,分别变动+49、+40、-27、 -62 亿元。 股指期货 基差:IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 160.37、120.01、65.54 与 47.42 点,基差年化收益率 分别为-19.84%、-15.84%、-12.83%与-13.35%,三年期历史分位数分别为 4%、5%、1%及 5%。 期- ...
复盘与前瞻:下周财经大事件梳理与交易风险提示
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-19 03:14
Group 1 - The recent easing of tensions in US-China trade relations has led to a significant drop in gold prices, while global stock markets have surged dramatically [1] - The upcoming week features several key economic events that could impact market movements, including speeches from Federal Reserve officials and the Australian interest rate decision [3][4] - The oil market will see important data releases, including the EIA crude oil inventory report, which is expected to influence oil prices and related currencies [5][6] Group 2 - The focus for the week will be on employment data from the US, which traditionally has a strong influence on the dollar and gold prices [6] - Despite a lighter economic calendar, the potential for volatility remains high due to central bank communications and energy inventory reports [7]
闫瑞祥:黄金关注日线阻力及缺口回补,欧美区间震荡对待
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 05:33
Macroeconomic Overview - The recent release of economic data from the US has shown widespread weakness, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly declining by 0.5%, retail sales growth plummeting to 0.1%, and manufacturing output decreasing by 0.4%, significantly undermining market confidence in the US economy [1] - The US Treasury market experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 11 basis points and the 2-year yield falling by 9.2 basis points; the US dollar index decreased by 0.2% [1] - Geopolitical risks are escalating, with stalled negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and difficulties in the Iran nuclear deal talks, leading to increased interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1] US Dollar Index - The US dollar index exhibited a downward trend, reaching a high of 101.05 and a low of 100.562, ultimately closing at 100.8 [2] - The index is currently facing resistance at the 102.90 level on a weekly basis, suggesting a bearish outlook in the medium term, while key support is identified at the 100.30 level [2] Gold Market - Gold prices showed a rebound, with a high of 3240.37 and a low of 3120.56, closing at 3229.59 [4] - The market is observing a four-month upward trend with a recent correction, and the price is supported at the 3100 level; a break below this support could lead to further downward pressure [5] - Short-term support is noted in the 3199-3200 range, with targets set at 3250, 3282, and 3325 [7] Euro and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The EUR/USD pair experienced an overall increase, with a low of 1.1167 and a high of 1.1227, closing at 1.1183 [8] - The market is currently supported at the 1.0800 level on a monthly basis, with a bearish outlook in the short term unless the price breaks above the daily resistance [8] Key Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data to watch includes the French ILO unemployment rate, Eurozone trade balance, US new housing starts, building permits, import price index, and consumer confidence index [10]
建材市场周报:建材周度报告-20250512
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 14:32
撰写品种:建材(螺纹、玻璃) 撰写时间: 2025.05.12 回顾周期:2025.05.05- 2025.05.09 研究员:张孟威 咨询证号(Z0020205) 建材周度报告 建材市场周报: 一、主要观点 本周(2025.05.05-05.09)建材继续维持下跌趋势,螺纹稍有抵抗,玻璃再创新低。 宏观方面,英美就关税贸易协定达成一致,成为关税战以来的首份协定,预示着市场 风险逐步减弱,资产波动率或均值回归。 螺纹现货成交周环比表现清淡,钢厂利润持续被压缩,虽然部分钢厂仍有微薄利 润,但整体产量周度环比有所下滑,随着传统淡季的逐步到来,剔除五一节假日影响 螺纹需求开始弱化,周度库存也有所累积,螺纹钢基本面边际走弱。玻璃方面,本周两 条产线冷修,产量环比下降,需求环比有所改善,但就一季度竣工面积数据来看,终端 地产仍较疲软,玻璃整体仍处在供大于求阶段,价格持续承压。 公司热线:028 6130 3163 研究所邮箱:institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉:4006821188 综上,建材淡季逐渐到来,就周环比数据来看,基本面已经有开始走弱迹象,随着 宏观环境的逐步好转,市场风偏逐步转强,或许能对建材 ...
4月29日电,惠誉称,美国保险公司面临更高的损失成本和贸易战带来的市场风险。
news flash· 2025-04-28 18:16
智通财经4月29日电,惠誉称,美国保险公司面临更高的损失成本和贸易战带来的市场风险。 ...