平均通胀目标制

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美联储深陷“通胀顽疾+经济阴云+政治风暴”三重困局
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 02:48
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a complex decision-making moment characterized by a "triple dilemma" involving a weakening labor market, persistent core inflation pressures, and increasing political interference from the White House [1] Economic Data Divergence - Recent economic data indicates a contradictory phase for the U.S. economy, with signs of a cooling labor market as initial jobless claims reach a three-month high and continued claims rise to a two-and-a-half-year peak [2] - The manufacturing PMI showed a temporary rebound due to a surge in new orders, but capacity utilization remains below long-term averages, reflecting pessimistic future demand expectations [2] - The quality and stability of new job positions are declining, despite the unemployment rate being at historical lows [2] Inflation Dynamics - Core CPI growth slowed to 3.2% year-on-year in July, yet wholesale prices have risen for three consecutive months, with the producer price index (PPI) recording its largest monthly increase in three years [3] - Service sector inflation, particularly in healthcare and education, accelerated to 4.1% [3] - Proposed tariffs of up to 300% on key sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are beginning to impact corporate costs, with some manufacturers experiencing cost increases of 2%-5% [3] Internal Policy Divisions - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal policy divisions, with hawkish members advocating for no rate cuts due to high inflation, while dovish members suggest preemptive rate cuts if labor market conditions worsen [4][5] - The debate reflects the Fed's struggle to balance its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, revealing limitations in its average inflation targeting framework [5] Market Expectations - The futures market indicates a 73.5% probability of a rate cut in September, with an expected cumulative cut of 47 basis points for the year, although this consensus is built on fragile foundations [6] - Despite weak employment data supporting rate cuts, the significant rise in wholesale prices has been largely overlooked by the market [6] Political Pressures - Political factors complicate the decision-making environment, with former President Trump pressuring the Fed for immediate rate cuts and criticizing Chair Powell for delayed actions [7] - Investigations into Fed Governor Lisa Cook by the Justice Department could further threaten the Fed's independence, especially if political appointments shift the board's balance [7] Jackson Hole Meeting - The upcoming Jackson Hole speech by Powell is anticipated to be a critical moment for policy direction, with expectations of a "fuzzy" strategy that acknowledges economic risks while emphasizing the need to monitor inflation [8] - The Fed's policy path will face tests related to tariff impacts, political pressures, and market expectations, with a likely approach of gradual rate cuts [8]
特朗普再度炮轰鲍威尔: 他正在严重伤害美国房地产
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 16:31
Group 1 - The Jackson Hole central bank conference is set to begin, with a focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's final speech, which is expected to be more dovish amid rising market expectations for interest rate cuts [1][2] - Recent weak employment data has led to increased market speculation that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by at least 25 basis points in September, with another cut anticipated later in the year [1][3] - President Trump has expressed concerns about Powell's stance on interest rates, particularly regarding the impact on the real estate market, indicating a push for significant rate reductions [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. real estate market is struggling, with low inventory pushing prices up; a significant rate cut is seen as necessary to stimulate housing construction and market recovery [3][4] - The Dow Jones U.S. Homebuilders Select Index has shown a technical upward trend, indicating market optimism driven by rate cut expectations, with notable increases in individual stocks such as D.R. Horton and Lennar [3][4] - Market analysts believe that sectors traditionally benefiting from rate cuts have been performing strongly, reflecting confidence in the Federal Reserve's potential return to a rate-cutting cycle [4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy framework, established in 2012, is under review, with potential changes to be implemented after Powell's term ends in May 2024 [4][5] - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may abandon the "average inflation targeting" strategy, which was deemed ineffective in the post-pandemic environment, in favor of a singular 2% inflation target [4][5] - Powell has previously indicated the likelihood of changes to the inflation strategy, acknowledging the increased volatility in inflation and the need for a reassessment of economic conditions since 2020 [5]
何时降息?特朗普再度炮轰鲍威尔
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 10:24
Group 1 - The Jackson Hole central bank conference is set to begin, with a focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's final speech, which is expected to be dovish amid rising market expectations for interest rate cuts [3][5] - Recent weak U.S. employment data has led to increased market bets on a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with expectations for at least one more cut by the end of the year [3][5] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield has seen the largest decline, reflecting the market's sensitivity to interest rate changes [3] Group 2 - Former President Trump has publicly criticized Powell, suggesting that his policies are harming the real estate sector and calling for significant rate cuts [5][6] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated that rate cuts could help the struggling real estate market, which has been facing low sales and new construction [6] - The Dow Jones U.S. Home Builders Select Index has risen above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, signaling a technical uptrend in response to rate cut expectations [6] Group 3 - Market analysts note that sectors traditionally benefiting from rate cuts have shown strong performance, as investors anticipate a return to a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve [7] - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy framework, established in 2012, is under review, with potential changes expected to be part of Powell's legacy after his term ends in May 2024 [7][8] - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may abandon the "average inflation targeting" framework, which some believe contributed to misjudgments regarding inflation during the pandemic [8]
何时降息?特朗普再度炮轰鲍威尔
第一财经· 2025-08-20 10:02
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Jackson Hole central bank conference is highly anticipated, particularly for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's final speech, with expectations leaning towards a dovish stance and potential interest rate cuts due to recent weak employment data [2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following signals from the Trump administration regarding interest rate cuts, U.S. real estate stocks have seen a preemptive rise, with the Dow Jones U.S. Home Builders Select Index climbing above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a technical bullish trend [6]. - The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) increased by 5.6% over the past week, with individual homebuilders like D.R. Horton Inc. and Lennar Corp. rising by 5.8% and 9.2% respectively [6]. - Notably, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new position of approximately $200 million in D.R. Horton and increased its stake in Lennar, reflecting confidence in the housing sector [6]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy framework, established in 2012, is set for a review, with potential changes to be implemented after Powell's term ends in May 2026 [8]. - There is speculation that Powell may abolish the "average inflation targeting" framework, which was designed during a low-inflation period, in favor of a singular 2% inflation target due to the changing economic landscape post-pandemic [8]. - Powell hinted at the possibility of this change in a May speech, acknowledging that future inflation volatility may be significantly higher than in the previous decade [8].
何时降息?特朗普再度炮轰鲍威尔:他正在严重伤害美国房地产
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 08:34
Group 1 - Market expectations are leaning towards a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with investors betting on at least a 25 basis point cut in September and potentially another cut later in the year due to weak employment data [1][4] - The Dow Jones U.S. Home Builders Select Index has risen above its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating a technical bullish trend, driven by expectations of rate cuts [5] - Notable increases in stock prices for residential builders such as D.R. Horton Inc. and Lennar Corp., with respective gains of 5.8% and 9.2% in the past week, reflect the market's optimism regarding rate cuts [5] Group 2 - The current monetary policy framework of the Federal Reserve, established in 2012, is set for a review, which may lead to significant changes in policy strategies and communication mechanisms [4][6] - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may abandon the "average inflation targeting" framework, which was deemed ineffective in the post-pandemic inflation environment, in favor of a single inflation target of 2% [6] - Powell's potential changes to the inflation targeting strategy are expected to be a significant part of his legacy as he approaches the end of his term in May 2024 [6]
鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔告别演讲!政策框架巨变在即
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 03:12
Core Points - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver his final speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, focusing on potential signals for a September rate cut and deeper changes to the central bank's dual mandate [1] - The Fed is likely to abandon the "average inflation targeting" strategy, which was designed to prevent deflation during low inflation periods, and instead re-anchor to a single inflation target of 2% [1] - The current monetary policy framework is revised every five years, and this upcoming revision may have lasting impacts for several years [1] Group 1 - Observers believe that the previous tolerance for inflation overshooting led to the Fed's slow response post-pandemic and misjudgment of inflation, resulting in aggressive rate hikes [1] - Deutsche Bank and hedge fund professionals expect Powell to restore a forward-looking strategy and acknowledge supply shock risks in his speech [1] - Powell has previously warned of significant future inflation volatility and will optimize the policy communication mechanism, with investors keenly watching for any modifications to the "dot plot" report [1]
鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔谢幕演讲前瞻:拟废除平均通胀目标,重塑美联储政策遗产
智通财经网· 2025-08-20 02:45
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to announce significant changes to the Fed's policy framework during his speech at Jackson Hole, which may include a shift away from the "average inflation targeting" strategy [1][2] - The current framework, established in 2012, is set for a five-year review, and the upcoming adjustments will reassess the policies and communication strategies that were last updated before the pandemic [1][2] - Observers believe that the previous tolerance for inflation overshooting contributed to the Fed's delayed response to rising inflation post-pandemic, leading to aggressive interest rate hikes [2] Group 2 - Powell's anticipated speech is expected to restore a more forward-looking policy strategy while acknowledging supply chain risks and aiming to rebalance inflation and employment perspectives [2] - The need to optimize the Fed's communication mechanisms regarding economic forecasts and uncertainties is emphasized, particularly concerning the quarterly economic outlook report that includes the "dot plot" of interest rate expectations [2]
全球央行年会前三重挑战压顶,鲍威尔“谢幕演出”会否撼动市场?
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-08-19 13:19
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is expected to be a critical platform for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to address inflation, employment, and political pressures, with market participants keenly awaiting his signals regarding interest rate adjustments [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Expectations - Investors are concerned that Powell may counter the growing expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts, which could lead to market volatility [1][2]. - Historical data shows that the "Jackson Hole week" typically yields positive returns for the S&P 500, with a median weekly gain of 0.8% since 2009 [4]. - The S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio has reached 25.5, the highest since 2000, raising concerns about potential market corrections if Powell fails to meet dovish expectations [5]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - The economic environment in the U.S. has changed significantly since last year, with increased tariffs on imported goods contributing to rising inflation [2]. - Powell is likely to maintain a cautious stance, emphasizing the need for more concrete employment and inflation data before committing to any rate cuts [2][3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Framework - The Federal Reserve is undergoing a review of its monetary policy framework, with discussions around transitioning from the "average inflation targeting" approach established in 2020 to a more flexible price level targeting system [7][8]. - The upcoming assessment in 2025 may lead to a shift towards a framework that better accommodates structural changes in the economy, such as global supply chain adjustments and demographic shifts [8][9]. Group 4: Future Projections - There is a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with expectations for at least one more cut by the end of the year [6]. - The U.S. stock market may experience short-term fluctuations but could benefit from policy easing in the longer term, driven by factors such as AI investments and improving corporate earnings [6].
逆全球化时代,美联储货币框架如何变革|国际
清华金融评论· 2025-08-05 08:37
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework in response to rising inflation and the challenges posed by de-globalization, suggesting a move away from the Average Inflation Targeting (AIT) to a more explicit numerical inflation target to control inflation levels [4][7][12]. Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The post-globalization era has led to a significant increase in the inflation baseline in the U.S., with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showing an average increase of only 1.8% from 1994 to 2019, but this trend is changing [4]. - The Federal Reserve may abandon the AIT framework, which was designed to support inflation during low-inflation periods, in favor of a clear numerical inflation target to combat rising inflation levels [6][7]. - AIT has delayed the Fed's response to inflation, with the latest cycle showing a 12-month lag in response to inflation exceeding 2%, compared to an average of 5 months in previous cycles [7]. Group 2: Dollar Circulation and Fiscal Policy - The "dollar circulation" has been disrupted due to de-globalization, leading to reduced foreign investment in U.S. assets, which historically supported U.S. government debt [9][10]. - The Fed's quantitative policies need to align with the U.S. Treasury to prevent difficulties in issuing government bonds, especially as foreign demand for U.S. debt decreases [8][12]. - The potential for the Fed to restart regular bond purchases is highlighted, especially if 10-year Treasury yields approach 5%, indicating a need to stabilize the market [10][12]. Group 3: Financial Regulation and Stability - The article notes that the current financial stability concerns may lead the Fed to relax financial regulations, such as the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR), to increase demand for U.S. government bonds [13][14]. - The SLR rules, which limit banks' leverage, could be adjusted to allow for greater investment in U.S. Treasuries, thereby supporting the government's financing needs [13][14]. - The potential for a significant increase in U.S. government debt, driven by fiscal policies, necessitates a coordinated approach between monetary and fiscal policies to manage the rising debt levels effectively [12].
海外宏观研究笔记(三):如何看待美国菲利普斯曲线的异化?
Huaan Securities· 2025-07-25 11:36
Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. Core View of the Report The report delves into the evolution of the Phillips Curve and its current state of alienation in the US, aiming to explain the Fed's policy dilemmas. It analyzes the factors contributing to the flattening and steepening of the curve and offers insights into the Fed's current policy stance, including reasons for delaying interest rate cuts [2][8][14]. Summary by Related Catalog Evolution of the Phillips Curve Theory - In 1926, Irving Fisher pointed out the inverse relationship between unemployment and price changes, emphasizing the impact of unexpected price changes on the economy [3]. - In 1958, Phillips proposed the negative correlation between the unemployment rate and the rate of change in money - wages, and drew the Phillips Curve [3]. - In 1960, Samuelson and Solow proposed the "unemployment - price" Phillips Curve, replacing the rate of change in money - wages with price increases and incorporating the theory of wage - cost - driven inflation [4]. - In 1962, Okun proposed the "output - price" Phillips Curve, replacing the unemployment rate with the economic growth rate. The combination of Okun's Law and the Phillips Curve forms the basis of the Keynesian policy framework [5]. - In the 1970s, Friedman and Phelps proposed the Phillips Curve with adaptive expectations, introducing the concepts of short - term and long - term curves and the natural unemployment rate [6]. - In the mid - 1970s, the rational expectations school argued that there is no stable relationship between unemployment and inflation in both the short and long term, and the Phillips Curve is vertical [7]. - After the 1980s, the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) became systematic, emphasizing forward - looking expectation management [7]. Alienation of the Phillips Curve - **Flattening**: In recent years, the Phillips Curve has flattened. From 1960 - 1983, the slope was 0.67, but from 2000 - 2019, it dropped to 0.03, making it difficult for policymakers to adjust inflation and employment. Factors include stable inflation expectations, supply - chain reconstruction due to trade globalization, and labor - market structural issues [8][9][10]. - **Steepening**: Since 2020, due to large - scale fiscal stimulus and supply - side disruptions after the pandemic, the Phillips Curve has shown a short - term steepening, leaving behind government debt pressure and weakening the curve's elasticity [11]. - **Underlying Cause**: The essence of the Phillips Curve's changes is that the US economy is no longer a closed loop, and the economic cycle's scope changes, leading to local breaks in the curve [12]. Understanding the Fed's Policy Attitude - **Two Concerns**: The Fed is worried about uncontrollable inflation expectations and whether tariff shocks and loose policies will lead to persistent inflation [14]. - **Reasons for Delaying Interest Rate Cuts**: The Fed's ability to suppress inflation is declining; the effectiveness of interest rate cuts depends on the smooth operation of the global dollar system; managing inflation expectations is crucial; and the Fed uses the CME FedWatch tool for expectation management [15].