2025年12月23日，第一财经《云程笃行·万里可期 | 2025年度财经思想者盛典》圆满落幕。智汇 集团创始人及首席经济学家夏春、中欧陆家嘴国际金融研究院副院长刘功润、京华世家家族办公室董 事长聂俊峰、新鼎资本董事长张驰和第一财经总编辑杨宇东共同呈现了一场精彩的年度思想演说秀， 围绕宏观趋势、居民消费、年轻人理财、具身智能等热点议题展开，探寻2026年值得期待的结构性 机遇。 此为《 2025年度财经思想者盛典》中 中欧陆家嘴国际金融研究院副院长刘功润 的演讲完整版内容 大家好！我是刘功润，一位财经观察者、研究者。 今天，和大家聊聊关于投资的话题。但是，我不 想和大家谈那些让人头疼的 K线图和复杂的财务模型，而是从今年"火出圈"的投资现象说起—— 不 知道在座有多少朋友，为了一只咧着嘴、表情古灵精怪的 Labubu娃娃，拼过手速、加过代购？ 这 个小精灵，不生产粮食，不制造芯片，但却让很多人心甘情愿抢着掏钱买单。在 Labubu的拉动下， 泡泡玛特今年上半年营收达138.8亿元，超过了去年全年。 为什么潮玩 IP会受到市场追捧？它真正的价值什么？ 大家会很容易想到一个概念：情绪价值。没 错！情绪价值的本质是 ...

Core Insights - The pet economy, with a market size of 300 billion and gross margins reaching 50%, appears to be a lucrative business, but the reality is more complex and challenging for large companies [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major players like Hema have entered the pet market with high expectations, but have faced significant losses, exemplified by Pet Fresh's closure of 18 stores after just 9 months, with an average monthly loss exceeding 200,000 RMB per store [2][6]. - Despite the high gross margins in pet food, with domestic brands achieving 40%-50% margins, the actual profitability for many companies is low, with some reporting negative net margins [5][6]. Group 2: Cost Structure - The high gross margins in the pet industry are offset by substantial marketing and operational costs, particularly in advertising through KOLs (Key Opinion Leaders), which can consume a significant portion of revenue [8][10]. - Companies like Zhongchong and Peidi have shown that even leading firms struggle with profitability, with Zhongchong's gross margin at 28.16% and net margin at only 9.33% [6][9]. Group 3: Business Model Challenges - The pet economy is characterized by a reliance on personal relationships and trust between pet owners and service providers, making it difficult for large companies to replicate the success of smaller, independent operators [22][23]. - The expansion of large pet service providers often leads to operational inefficiencies and customer dissatisfaction, as seen with companies like Jichongjia, which faced closures after rapid expansion [22][24]. Group 4: Comparison with Other Industries - The challenges faced in the pet economy mirror those in other high-margin industries like beauty and medical services, where the core value often lies in individual expertise rather than scalable business models [14][20]. - The pet industry, much like the beauty and medical sectors, is fundamentally a "people-driven" business, where success is tied to individual skills and customer relationships rather than just operational efficiency [20][23].

Group 1 - The article highlights the strong momentum of China's economic development, focusing on cultural and tourism consumption trends favored by young people as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - There is a significant consumer demand for domestic products, cultural creations, and intangible cultural heritage items, leading to the emergence of popular products with strong adaptability and good experience [2] - The cultural consumption market is showing signs of vitality, with film screening sales revenue increasing by 19.1% year-on-year and revenue from artistic creation and performance rising by 15.6% in the first eleven months of 2025 [4] Group 2 - The film "Ne Zha" has achieved a cumulative box office of 15.91 billion yuan, ranking fifth in global box office history and setting multiple records [6] - Emotional value and social attribute consumption, represented by digital cultural services such as gaming and animation, are particularly favored by young consumers, with related sales revenue increasing by 16.5% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2025 [8] - The increase in sports events has significantly boosted consumption, with retail sales of sports exhibition services growing by 29.7% and retail sales of sports goods and equipment increasing by 6.6% in the same period [14]

回看这一年的消费市场，会发现很多变化并非突然发生，而是在多个事件、多个品牌动作中不断被放大、被验证，最终沉淀为清晰的趋势。在iBrandi品 创看来，某种程度上，2025 年更像是一年"趋势显形"的年份，而这些趋势，或许也正在成为2026年的底层共识。 如果将这一年的消费与营销变化浓缩为五个关键词，我觉得其分别指向消费者、内容、方法、渠道与行业结构的深层转向：消费者更情绪化，品牌更具 体，营销更长期，渠道更现实，行业更集中。 用户：情绪价值不是加分项，而是决策的起点 情绪价值并不是2025年才出现的新概念，但在这一年，它明显完成了一次位置上的前移——从品牌叙事中的辅助变量，变成了消费决策中的核心驱动。越 来越多消费行为，并不是源于"我需要什么"，而是来自"我此刻想要被怎样对待"。 在宏观环境不确定性持续存在的背景下，消费者对长期规划的耐心下降，对即时情绪反馈的敏感度却在上升，这种变化直接影响了他们的消费选择。 Labubu便是那个最为人津津乐道的代表案例。Labubu没有为用户解决任何"现实问题"，而是精准对应了当下消费者的情绪状态：孤独感、陪伴需求、自我 投射，以及对"不完美"的认同。在高度不确定的环境中， ...

2026年的钟声即将敲响，农历马年也在大步赶来的路上。 最近这段时间，伴随着新春佳节的日益临近，一场看不见硝烟的马年CNY"营销大战"正逐渐升温，各大品牌纷纷亮剑出招：或跨界联名，玩转品牌营销； 或创意推新，抢占竞争先机；或上线主题TVC，以温情贺岁；或开展红包活动，将互动进行到底…… 食品板注意到，作为"春节餐桌上的常客"，乐事日前也有大动作，正式推出了一系列春节限定装礼包新品，迅速引发业内的广泛关注。 推新：放大情绪价值，打造"过年神器" 一直以来，饱含新意与心意被视为乐事春节新品的"特色标签"，这一次同样也不例外。 食品板发现，乐事马年春节限定新品的包装主视觉结合了《功夫熊猫》IP，包括多款不同规格的乐事新春大礼包、"全家桶"、"福乐桶"、"黄金档"礼盒和 薯条缤纷桶等产品的外包装均含有这一元素，不仅增添了许多欢乐氛围，还通过本土化元素和《功夫熊猫》超级IP的影响力，激发中国消费者的情感共 鸣。与此同时，新品包装通过"福乐桶"、"金砖开运"礼盒等创意造型，以及 "大吉大利"等节庆表达，强化了春节氛围的直观感受，也让产品在情绪层面更 容易被消费者感知。 引爆：线上线下联动，释放话题声量 洞察：春节消费，呼 ...

Group 1: AI Evolution - AI has transitioned from being a remarkable "tool" to becoming a collaborative "partner" in various applications, enhancing productivity and creating new mixed-task models [3][5] - Significant advancements in AI models occurred throughout the year, including the release of Claude 3.7 Sonnet, Manus, and Gemini 3 series, showcasing improvements in multi-modal capabilities [4] - The industry is moving towards a new evaluation system that reflects AI's real-world problem-solving abilities, focusing on quantifiable ROI from AI investments [6] Group 2: Embodied Intelligence - 2025 marked the commercialization of embodied intelligence, with significant technological breakthroughs such as RoboOS and RoboBrain, lowering development barriers [9][10] - The evolution of AI is shifting towards cognitive intelligence, emphasizing the importance of real-world training and iteration for intelligent systems [9] - Embodied intelligence is enhancing human capabilities in various fields, including industrial applications and emotional companionship through AI toys and digital pets [10][11] Group 3: Healthcare Innovations - The biotech sector in China experienced explosive growth, with innovations in gene editing and domestic drugs gaining FDA approval, marking a shift from follower to leader in global healthcare [16][19] - AI is deeply integrated into life sciences, transforming drug development and precision medicine, thus reshaping the healthcare landscape [22] - High-end medical devices are advancing rapidly, with domestic innovations addressing critical needs in minimally invasive surgeries [20] Group 4: Consumer Market Dynamics - Emotional value has become a core driver of consumer behavior, with brands needing to provide deeper emotional resonance beyond basic functionality [24][26] - The retail landscape is evolving into a content-driven model, where physical stores must offer immersive experiences to attract customers [28] - Consumers are increasingly seeking seamless, personalized experiences across multiple channels, necessitating a focus on holistic customer journeys [28][29] Group 5: Entrepreneurial Mindset - Entrepreneurs are encouraged to break free from past successes that may hinder innovation, embracing unconventional thinking to navigate resource constraints [30] - Building empathy and transferable skills is essential for adapting to industry changes and enhancing team collaboration [32] - Sustainable energy management is crucial for entrepreneurs, balancing personal well-being with business growth to ensure long-term success [38]

张颐武 现代生活节奏越是加快，人们对于情感沟通和心理慰藉的需求就越强烈。换成近年来流行的一个词汇， 就是大家普遍渴望"情绪价值"。于是，以情感满足为核心的新消费形态迅速发展壮大，尤其是在年轻群 体中。在追求自我表达与情感认同的过程中，人们愿意为文化归属、身份认同等精神价值买单，进而推 动着消费从"实用"向"悦己"转变。加之社交媒体、算法推荐等重构着当今社会的消费体验，很多商品通 过精准触达情绪，激发新的消费需求。这就解释了为何"谷子经济"持续火热，潮玩IP产品供不应求，热 门歌手演唱会门票开票秒光……相关调查显示，2013年以来，我国情绪消费相关产业的年均复合增长率 高达12％，预计2025年市场规模将突破2万亿元，成为消费升级的重要推动力。在年轻一代中，"情绪价 值"更是成为精神刚需，超九成青年认可"情绪价值"，近六成青年愿意为情绪价值买单。 不过，情绪价值的满足显然不只是通过花钱消费来"犒劳自己"或"悦己"，年轻一代在情感层面一直没有 停止向内"求诸于己"以及向外寻求共鸣。比如，今年以来网上流行的一些热梗，从"发疯文学"到"勇敢 小羊"，追求的基本都是情感表达与共鸣。作为2025年年末收官热梗的"爱你老己 ...

以下文章来源于Vista氢商业 ，作者何愚 Vista氢商业 . 关心都市白领的消费生活 提供易懂有趣的品牌报道 花小钱办大事。 文 ｜ 贾小乐 编辑 ｜ 卢力麟 来源｜ Vista氢商业（ID：Qingshangye666） 封面来源 ｜ 苹果官方 手机早已渗透进人类生活的每一个缝隙，而人类打扮手机的热情，也几乎到了无孔不入的程度。 就在12月20日，苹果官宣，iPhone17 Pro和新晋IP顶流的五月天"魔魔胡胡胡萝卜"（简称为"卜卜"）联动合作。那块被吐槽比太平洋还宽阔的超大摄像模 组，忽然显露出另一种合理性，仿佛生来就是为贴纸DIY预留的展示位。原本因"史上最丑"而饱受争议的iPhone 17系列，也因此摇身一变，成了天选"痛 机"。 不要2999，不要999，只要29元，就可以解锁当下最便宜的苹果官方联名配件——卜卜贴纸。 被大几百块天价手机壳收割的潮人们，也开始自己动手丰衣足食。爱豆的对镜自拍里，和OOTD颜色与元素相呼应的手机小贴纸，正成为"穿搭的最后一公 里"；甚至有人为了单纯享受"咕手机"的快乐，斥巨资一万块拿下最新款苹果手机，"终于理解了'买椟还珠'的故事"。 "只花一张贴纸的钱，却每天 ...

你大概率会破防。 但如果这个"人"是你自己呢？ 最近，一个叫"爱你老己"的梗突然火遍全网，被网友称为"2025年度最暖心的精神按摩"。与此同时，一种名为"邪修"的生活流派也在年轻职场人 中悄然流行。 今天是2025年的第363天。 北京的写字楼里，暖气开得很足，但很多人心里却觉得冷。 这时候，如果有人突然拍拍你的肩膀，递给你一杯热美式，说一句："嘿，今年真的辛苦了，你其实做得挺好的。" 01 "老己"与"邪修"：赛博职场里的精神低保 什么是"爱你老己"？ 这不是年轻人在发疯，这是2025年职场人的《精神生存实录》。 简单说，就是把自己从肉体里剥离出来，分化出一个叫"老己"（Old Self）的老朋友。当你搞砸了PPT、被客户骂得狗血淋头，或者仅仅是累得不 想动时，那个"老己"会跳出来，用最宽容的语气对自己说： "老己啊，这个锅咱不背，是需求变太快。" "老己，今天加了三小时班，回去必须点个加辣的麻辣烫，好好犒劳下这副皮囊。" 这听起来有点像阿Q精神？不，心理学家告诉你，这叫"自我抽离"。在Slay全场的KPI压力下，我们太习惯像暴君一样审视自己，却忘了像朋友一 样拥抱自己。 而"邪修"，则是这届职场人对抗无力 ...

"好酒当歌竹叶青，河汾玉翠酿晶莹，一壶好酒走天下，何处江山不醉情。" 金庸曾这样称赞竹叶青酒，先生笔下江湖侠客的豪情壮志总与美酒相伴，而竹叶青，无疑是这份"江湖 酒单"里的顶流。金庸先生还曾在一部书中连续 3 次提及竹叶青酒，字里行间的偏爱，让这杯酒自带侠 义基因，成为无数人心中的"江湖标配"。 笔墨留香处，江湖意未尽，但比小说更悠远、比江湖更广阔的，是竹叶青酒绵延千年的真实生命力。从 历史深处走来，今天这杯底蕴愈发厚重的竹叶青酒，正持续不断走进着 Z 世代的酒桌，在新的时代语 境里续写着在场故事。 悦己正当潮！竹叶青酒成 Z 世代酒桌宠儿 当 Z 世代逐渐成为消费市场的主力军，酒桌也随之迎来一场深刻的审美与需求变革。当代消费者尤其 是 Z 世代，对酒饮的需求已从传统的社交应酬，转向"悦己消费"与"情绪价值"的追求， Z 世代与新中产 群体愈发追求低负担、有质感、富有情绪价值的饮用体验。 作为中国露酒的典范，竹叶青酒恰好提供了这种"轻松感"：竹叶青酒与生俱来的草本基因自带健康底 色，经华罗庚"优选法"精调的适中酒精度，搭配顺雅温润、饮后不易上头的特质，从根源上满足了年轻 人对"低负担饮酒"的核心诉求。 口感上 ...