房价下跌

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买不起房的人,已经盯上了断供房
36氪· 2025-06-05 21:56
以下文章来源于ONE文艺生活 ,作者震撼的 ONE文艺生活 . 让文艺成为一种流行的生活方式。 多少断供夫妻,决定免费送房? 文 | 牛小玲 编辑 | 奇妙 设计| JANE 来源| ONE文艺生活(ID: one_hanhan) 封面来源 | 《心居》剧照 朋友们,晚上好。 从小我妈就跟我说:天下没有白吃的午餐,也没有白吃的晚餐和夜宵。 但长大了开眼看世界了,才发现大城市就是不一样。 最近我总在社交平台刷到"送房子/倒贴送房子"的帖子;意思是白送房子,或者白送房子再给你十几万补贴。小时候只做过全国人民一人给我一块钱的美 梦;没想到长大了房子也能白送了? 买房,真正进入到0元购时代了吗? "送你套房子, 再给你20万"的魇幻楼市 没人知道谁是第一 个发起的房子0元购活动的人;刚听说的时候我以为是搞抽象的行为艺术;后来我在小某书和某鱼上刷到了大量这种帖子。标题基本都 是"房子免费送,直接过户"。 但仔细一看内容,原来不仅送房子,还送房贷。 啥意思呢? 就是房主因为经济压力还不上房贷了,为了避免影响征信就着急出手;基本是送房子送家具家电,首付一分钱不要,但是买房者要偿还后续房子的银行贷 款。 就比如这位网友,18 ...
今明两年,若房价继续下跌,45%的家庭,不得不面临“4大困境”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-29 09:45
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China, which experienced significant growth post-1998 reforms, is now facing a downturn, leading to potential asset devaluation for families heavily invested in property [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Households - Approximately 45% of urban households in China have invested in multiple properties, which are now at risk of losing value as housing prices continue to decline [1]. - Over 70% of the wealth of ordinary families is tied up in real estate, making them vulnerable to market fluctuations [3]. - The decline in housing prices has created a sense of urgency and anxiety among homeowners, particularly those with multiple properties, as they face the risk of asset depreciation [3][9]. Group 2: Financial Pressures - Many homeowners purchased properties using loans, and with the economic slowdown post-pandemic, their ability to repay these loans is diminishing, leading to increased risk of default [5]. - The rising pressure to meet mortgage obligations is forcing some homeowners to sell their properties at lower prices, further exacerbating the market's downward trend [5][7]. - The number of properties listed for sale has surged, with cities reporting over 100,000 listings, indicating a significant oversupply in the market [7]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Economic Impact - The decline in housing prices is contributing to a broader decrease in consumer spending, as homeowners feel financially constrained and are less willing to spend [9][10]. - The real estate sector's struggles are affecting numerous related industries, leading to increased operational pressures for businesses and reduced income for workers [9][12]. - A sustained decline in property values could have severe implications for the financial system, as real estate is closely linked to banking and credit markets [12].
买不起房的人,已经盯上了断供房
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-29 08:19
从小我妈就跟我说:天下没有白吃的午餐,也没有白吃的晚餐和夜宵。 但长大了开眼看世界了,才发现大城市就是不一样。 最近我总在社交平台刷到"送房子/倒贴送房子"的帖子; 意思是白送房子,或者白送房子再给你十几万补贴。 小时候只做过全国人民一人给我一块钱的美梦; 没想到长大了房子也能白送了? 买房,真正进入到0元购时代了吗? 但仔细一看内容,原来不仅送房子,还送房贷。 啥意思呢? 就是房主因为经济压力还不上房贷了,为了避免影响征信就着急出手; 基本是送房子送家具家电,首付一分钱不要,但是买房者要偿还后续房子的银行贷款。 就比如这位网友,18年在四川买了套房子,要还30年房贷,月供4000块,但是一个月工资才7000块,还要还25年房贷。 没人知道谁是第一个发起的房子0元购活动的人; 刚听说的时候我以为是搞抽象的行为艺术; 后来我在小某书和某鱼上刷到了大量这种帖子。 标题基本都是"房子免费送,直接过户"; 朋友们,中午好。 经济压力太大,两口子因为房子还闹离婚,所以只要有人来买,一分钱不要直接过户给你。 甚至还有的不仅送房子,还倒搭给你一些钱,只需要你还接下来的月供。 咱乍一看感觉挺实惠的,但仔细一琢磨还有点奇怪; ...
楼市大局已定,超过45%的家庭,可能要经历这4大难题
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-29 03:21
Group 1 - The domestic real estate market has been on a downward trend, with average housing prices dropping by 30% from their historical peak, affecting both new and second-hand homes [1] - The number of families owning two or more properties has increased from 41.5% to 45%, indicating a growing challenge for these households as they face asset depreciation [2][4] - The decline in housing prices is attributed to several factors, including high prices relative to local income levels, economic downturns leading to reduced incomes, and an oversupply of both new and second-hand homes [4][6] Group 2 - Households with multiple properties are experiencing increased financial pressure due to stagnant incomes and rising monthly mortgage payments, alongside escalating costs for property maintenance and management [6] - The volume of second-hand homes for sale has surged, with cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai seeing listings reach 16.1 million, 20 million, and 37 million respectively, indicating a lack of confidence in future price recovery [8] - Rental markets are becoming increasingly challenging, with both first-tier and third-tier cities facing difficulties in leasing properties, exacerbated by high living costs and an influx of affordable housing options [10]
房价大局已定!未来近50%中国家庭,可能要经历这4大难关
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-25 21:41
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that nearly half of Chinese families will face significant challenges in the future, including asset depreciation, increased risk of mortgage defaults, difficulties in selling or renting properties, and the decline of the real estate sector as a pillar of the economy [1][20]. Group 2 - Most families will experience continuous asset depreciation due to changing population dynamics, with a projected decline in newborns to 0.68% and a total population decrease of 1.39 million in 2024, while the elderly population exceeds 300 million [3][4]. - The saturation of the real estate market is evident, with urban housing area reaching 42 square meters per capita and home ownership at 96%, leading to reduced demand for new purchases [4]. Group 3 - The risks of mortgage defaults and unemployment are increasing, as many families allocate over 70% of their income to mortgage payments, making them vulnerable to income disruptions [6][7]. - The rise in unemployment due to structural adjustments and technological advancements, such as AI, poses a significant threat to household financial stability [7]. Group 4 - Many properties are becoming difficult to sell or rent, with a surplus in the rental market causing prices to drop significantly, and cities like Guangzhou and Beijing seeing over 100,000 listings in the secondary market [9]. Group 5 - The real estate sector's status as a pillar of the economy is likely to change, as the market has reached maturity after over 20 years of growth, with a shift towards quality over quantity in housing standards [11][12]. - The Chinese economy is transitioning towards high-quality development, with emerging industries like technology and modern services gaining more importance [14]. - Government regulations are tightening, with policies aimed at stabilizing housing prices and preventing rapid increases, indicating a shift away from the previous growth model [15]. Group 6 - Recommendations for ordinary individuals include diversifying investments beyond real estate and maintaining a focus on cash flow while reducing debt to mitigate risks associated with economic uncertainty [17][18].
房价不断下跌,历史却惊人相似,中国房地产可能要走日本“老路”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-23 00:03
Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is experiencing significant turmoil, with housing prices remaining stagnant or declining, indicating a prolonged downturn in the industry [1][7]. - There are contrasting views on the future trajectory of housing prices, with some hoping for a rebound similar to the U.S. market, while others fear a prolonged decline akin to Japan's experience [3][4][15]. Market Dynamics - The current decline in housing prices is fundamentally different from previous market fluctuations, suggesting a deeper structural issue rather than a temporary cycle [11]. - Many cities are witnessing a drop in housing prices, marking a potential turning point in the market [7]. - The high debt levels among residents and declining birth rates are internal factors that may further weaken market demand [11][15]. Historical Comparisons - The situation in China is compared to Japan's real estate bubble in the 1990s, where many households were trapped by high mortgages after a market crash [13][15]. - Unlike Japan, the U.S. market saw a quicker recovery post-financial crisis, suggesting that China may have a better chance of avoiding a severe downturn due to its centralized government control [16][17]. Government Policies - The Chinese government is implementing a dual-track system of commodity and affordable housing to alleviate market pressure and support living standards [20]. - The gradual approach to property tax reform in China aims to mitigate risks without triggering a systemic collapse, contrasting with Japan's abrupt tax increases during its market peak [22]. Regional Disparities - The real estate market in China is expected to exhibit significant regional differences, with first-tier cities and some strong second-tier cities likely to recover faster than weaker regions facing severe downward pressure [29][30]. - The potential for "ghost towns" in less attractive cities is a concern, with some areas already experiencing extremely low housing prices [30]. Future Outlook - The duration of the current market adjustment remains uncertain, with scenarios ranging from a two to three-year decline similar to the U.S. to a prolonged fifteen-year downturn like Japan's [30][32]. - The era of easy profits from real estate investments is over, necessitating a shift in strategies for investors and homebuyers alike [32].
中国楼市要凉?专家点名这五个城市房价要跌,买房党嗨了!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-13 18:07
营口和锦州也好不到哪儿去。这俩东北城市,经济靠传统工业,年轻人却跑得比风还快。2024年,营口新房库存高达28个月,锦州也不遑多让,卖一套房比 登天还难。知乎网友吐槽:"锦州房子,卖家恨不得送装修还倒贴家电!"人口流失、产业疲软,房价不跌才怪! 安顺和玉林,西南小城的代表,日子也不好过。安顺旅游业火过一阵,但楼市却冷得像冰窖,2024年新房成交量同比跌30%。玉林更惨,经济增速垫底,年 轻人全往广州、深圳跑,房子空置率高得像鬼城。网友笑称:"玉林买房?得先问问有没有邻居!"供过于求,房价想不跌都难。 这五个城市房价"滑坡",核心原因是供需失衡的老剧本。过去十年,开发商跟打了鸡血似的盖房,地方政府靠卖地赚得盆满钵满。可现在,人口缩水、需求 崩盘,房子却越盖越多。2024年,国家统计局数据显示,全国新房库存达7.38亿平米,鹤岗、营口这些城市更是"重灾区"。知乎大V分析:"库存够卖三年, 房价不跌才见鬼!" 政策也在"补刀"。2020年"三红线"政策让开发商资金链断裂,2024年房贷利率虽降到4.5%,但买家信心早崩了。金曼 Sachs预测,2025年全国房价跌幅 4%-6%,中小城市跌幅可能超10%。这五个城市 ...
马云预言成真?如果不出意外,2套以上房的家庭,将难逃3大难题
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 22:48
这话虽然有点夸张成分,但是就目前市场形势来看,不少业主面对市场持续下行,以及居高不下的还贷压力,很多人直呼压力山大,甚至已经有不少人扛 不下去了。 比如招行年报数据显示,2024年不良率占比最大的,就是个人住房贷款,占比高达20.5%,同比上一年多了17.18亿。换句话来说,截止到2024年末,断供 的现象依旧没有停止…… 而且,更为担忧的是,如果2025年继续像过去那样下跌,未来怕是2套以上房的家庭,将难逃3大难题: 比如有的新区,白天密密麻麻的高楼大厦,一到晚上就变得黑压压一片,点灯率太低导致整个片区都跟"鬼城"一样。 而且,这两年,保障房供给也越来越多,这种房子相比商品房价格更便宜,甚至人才公寓只要商品房一半的价格,这种情况下,谁还掏空家底买商品房? 2、杠杆太高了,购买力严重透支 早些年,我国居民杠杆率还只有10%左右,如今已经飙升到超60%,很多家庭资产都压在了房子里,已经没有更多加杠杆的空间了。 再加上这两年大家的收入也不太理想,大环境影响导致收入下降,甚至很多人面临失业,赚钱都变得困难,增加债务买房的需求在逐步下降。 01、房子为什么越来越难卖? 比如前几年最贵的时候,160万的房子,现在很多都 ...
一季度京沪消费均下滑,北京3月大降近10%!最有钱的人买不动了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-27 09:57
Core Insights - In Q1 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, and March saw a consumption growth rate of 5.9, indicating a potential recovery in domestic consumption [1] - However, major cities like Shanghai and Beijing are experiencing consumption decline, raising concerns about the overall economic recovery [1] Group 1: Shanghai's Consumption Data - In Q1 2025, Shanghai's total retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 405.7 billion yuan, ranking first among major cities, but the consumption growth rate was negative at -1.1% [4] - In March, Shanghai's retail sales fell by 1.5%, which was lower than the overall quarterly performance, indicating a significant decline in consumer spending [4] Group 2: Beijing's Consumption Data - Beijing's total retail sales of consumer goods in Q1 2025 were 345.9 billion yuan, with a further decline in March reaching -3.3% [5] - March's consumption total in Beijing was 104.9 billion yuan, showing a sharp year-on-year decline of 9.9%, nearly breaching the 10% mark [5] Group 3: Factors Contributing to Consumption Decline - The large consumption base in Shanghai and Beijing makes them more sensitive to internal demand shortages, leading to significant impacts from minor economic fluctuations [7] - The automotive market's performance is weak, with March sales in Beijing and Shanghai dropping by 20.2% and 18.5%, respectively, compared to a national growth of 5.5% [9] - The decline in real estate prices since late 2021 has negatively impacted consumer confidence, particularly among high-net-worth families in these cities [9] - Income growth in Shanghai and Beijing is lagging behind the national average, with Q1 2025 growth rates of 4.6% and 5%, respectively, compared to the national average of 5.5% [10] Group 4: External Influences on Consumption - Factors such as foreign capital withdrawal, reduced business dining, and restrictions on official receptions have also contributed to the consumption decline in Beijing and Shanghai [12] - In Q1 2025, restaurant consumption in Shanghai and Beijing fell by 3.4% and 3.8%, respectively, while national restaurant income increased by 4.7%, highlighting the local consumption challenges [12] Group 5: Implications for National Economy - The consumption decline in Beijing and Shanghai is significant, as their recovery is crucial for the overall confidence in China's domestic demand [14]
2025年,楼市传来5个“坏消息”,房价或将继续下跌?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-21 02:49
2025年,楼市依然面临困境,房价可能持续下跌。内行人分析指出,2025年或许并非楼市复苏的时机。让我们深入探讨导致这一局面的五大"坏消息"。 四、消费保守:储蓄倾向削弱购房意愿。 根据人行2025年一季度的调查,58.3%的城镇储户倾向于更多储蓄,创下2003年以来的新高。多数居民出于对未来医疗、教育等风险的担忧,选择将资金储 蓄,而非购房。加上限购和房产税的预期,这种趋向保守的消费心态使得储蓄被视为比购房更安全的投资方式。 二、空置率警报:住房过剩已成定局。 中国房地产协会的《2025年全国住房空置率调查报告》显示,全国城镇住宅的空置率已经达到15%,较2022年上升了3个百分点,尤其是在东北三省和西北 一些资源型城市,空置率已突破25%。在个别城市,空置率甚至高达30%。清华大学房地产研究所所长刘洪玉指出,按照国际标准,空置率超过10%便表示 市场供大于求。三四线城市中,部分房屋因无力偿还贷款而长期闲置,导致大量毛坯房空置无人问津。 三、人口结构:购房刚需持续萎缩。 随着人口结构的变化,楼市的需求端正面临严峻挑战。我国的年轻购房群体,尤其是25至39岁的主力人群,逐年减少。2024年,我国出生人口降至8 ...