Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in Shenzhen is experiencing an increase in available listings, with 72,241 units for sale as of June 23, reflecting a rise of 410 units from the previous week. However, price recovery remains limited, and many homeowners are motivated to sell due to market conditions and the influx of new homes [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of June 23, the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen has 72,241 active listings, an increase of 410 from the previous week [1]. - The average negotiation rate for second-hand homes has remained stable at around 9% for seven consecutive weeks, indicating a steady homeowner mindset [1]. - The demand for new homes is being stimulated by the entry of high-efficiency new properties, leading to an increase in the supply of second-hand homes as homeowners seek to upgrade [1]. Group 2: Sales Performance - In the 25th week of 2025, Shenzhen recorded 1,299 second-hand home transactions, a decrease of 11.9% compared to the previous week [2]. - New home sales in Shenzhen have shown a slight increase, reaching 1,150 units, indicating a divergence in the performance between new and second-hand markets [2]. - Major cities are witnessing a trend where the new home market is recovering while the second-hand market lags behind, with cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu showing growth in new home transaction areas [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The second-hand housing market is expected to gradually normalize as educational demand diminishes, with active transactions likely to focus on well-located or high-value properties [2]. - The ongoing competition from the new home market, driven by policy adjustments and developer incentives, may pressure second-hand home prices to decline further if listings continue to rise [1].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is gradually stabilizing, with new home prices in major cities showing signs of recovery, although some cities continue to experience price declines [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In May, new home prices in Hangzhou increased by 0.8% month-on-month, leading the 70 cities surveyed, while Shanghai followed with a 0.7% increase [3][10]. - The average price of new homes in Shanghai reached a historical high of 90,691 yuan per square meter in May, driven by the introduction of high-end properties [11]. - The overall sales area of new homes in May was 70.53 million square meters, with a sales value of 70.56 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10% and 13% respectively [4]. Group 2: Regional Analysis - In Hangzhou, the average price of new homes has surpassed 10,000 yuan per square meter, indicating a shift towards higher quality housing [3]. - The real estate market in South China, particularly in Nanning, is primarily driven by "just demand," with a significant portion of sales focused on affordable and improvement-type housing [14][15]. - The market in Nanning has seen a continuous increase in new home prices for six months, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in May [13]. Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - The State Council has emphasized the need for policy optimization to stabilize expectations and activate demand in the real estate market [4]. - Analysts suggest that the current market differentiation is a norm, with core cities showing resilience while lower-tier cities face ongoing price declines [3][9]. - Future developments in Hangzhou and Shanghai are expected to push new home prices higher, with several high-end projects set to enter the market [8][12].

Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with new home prices in major cities experiencing a narrowing decline year-on-year, although month-on-month prices are still decreasing [1][2] - Certain hot cities, such as Hangzhou and Shanghai, are witnessing a continuous rise in new home prices, indicating a divergence in market performance [1][2] Market Performance - In May, the total sales area of new residential properties reached 70.53 million square meters, with sales revenue of 705.6 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10% and 13% respectively [2] - The inventory of unsold residential properties decreased by 7.15 million square meters at the end of May, marking three consecutive months of decline [2] City-Specific Trends - Hangzhou led the new home price increases with a month-on-month rise of 0.8%, while Shanghai followed closely with a 0.7% increase [1][13] - In May, the average price of new homes in Hangzhou surpassed 10,000 yuan per square meter, indicating a recovery in high-quality housing demand [1][2] Policy and Market Outlook - The State Council emphasized the need for policy optimization to stabilize expectations and activate demand in the real estate market [2] - Analysts suggest that the market will continue to see a split, with core cities showing resilience while lower-tier cities may struggle [11][17] Regional Highlights - In Shanghai, the new home price increased by 5.9% year-on-year, driven by the launch of high-end properties [13][15] - South China's Nanning has seen a consistent rise in new home prices for six consecutive months, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in May [18][21]

Group 1: Market Overview - In June, real estate companies are focusing on performance improvement as they approach mid-year targets, with marketing activities concentrated around key dates like "6·18" and "6·30" [1] - The overall performance of the real estate market in May showed significant differentiation, with some companies planning to increase their marketing efforts in June to boost sales [1] Group 2: Shenzhen Market - In Shenzhen, the new housing market saw a decline in May, with a 14.4% decrease in transactions, but an increase in new launches is expected in June, with 10 new residential projects anticipated [2][3] - Notable projects include those developed by China Overseas Land & Investment and China Merchants Shekou, with sales performance showing promising results for newly launched properties [3] Group 3: Guangzhou Market - Guangzhou's real estate market experienced a 41% month-on-month increase in new home transactions in May, attributed to the launch of improvement-type properties in central areas [5][6] - Eight new projects are set to launch in June, with a focus on high-efficiency housing products that meet the new regulations [5] Group 4: Hangzhou Market - In Hangzhou, the new housing market faced a decline in transactions in May, but June is expected to see a surge in new launches, with 29 projects planned [7][8] - Key projects include those by China Merchants Shekou and other local developers, with a focus on larger unit sizes [7] Group 5: Nanjing Market - Nanjing's real estate market saw a decline in both transaction volume and prices in May, but June is expected to bring 14 new launches, with a focus on high-end projects [9][10] - Companies are employing discount strategies to boost sales, with some projects seeing significant price reductions to increase transaction volumes [9][10]

5月，河南房地产市场整体表现较为平淡，部分城市核心区域高得房率的优质新项目开盘基本可以实现较好去化，但存量老项目及较低能级城市项目仍面 临销售压力。在此背景下，河南房企在2025年1-5月的销售业绩究竟如何？一起看一下数据表现： 2025年5月全省土地市场解读 2025年1-5月，河南省共推出各类用地1014宗，规划建筑面积4840.9万平米；成交规划建筑面积2959.0万平米。其中，全省共推出住宅用地216宗，规划建 筑面积合计为1192.0万平米，成交规划建筑面积890.7万平米。 分城市来看，4月共14个城市有住宅用地成交，成交规模（按规划建筑面积计算）前三城市中，驻马店市共成交4宗住宅用地，规划建筑面积合计24.99万 平米，成交规模位居全省第一；其次是新乡市，成交7宗住宅用地，规划建筑面积合计24.70万平米；郑州市位列第三，成交2宗住宅用地，规划建筑面积 合计23.21万平米。成交楼面均价方面，洛阳市以5389元/㎡的价格位居全省首位；郑州市以3323元/㎡位居第二；新乡市以2319元/㎡位居第三。 | 12 | 常绿集团 | 7.83 Je 12 | | 中建七局地产集团 | 6.96 | | ...

Core Insights - In May, new home prices in major Chinese cities continued to show structural increases, while second-hand home prices experienced a downward trend [1][2] - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities was 16,815 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.30% and a year-on-year increase of 2.56% [1] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,794 yuan per square meter, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.71% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.24% [1] New Home Market - The new home market displayed a differentiated trend, with core cities seeing active transactions driven by high-quality improvement projects, while some existing projects faced significant pressure [1][2] - In May, new home prices in first-tier cities rose by 0.90%, while second-tier cities saw a slight increase of 0.06%. In contrast, third and fourth-tier cities experienced a decrease of 0.11% [1] - Shanghai and Guangzhou led the price increases among 100 cities, with respective month-on-month increases of 1.47% and 1.25% [1] Second-Hand Home Market - The transaction volume in the second-hand home market decreased month-on-month, with a trend of "trading at lower prices" dominating the market [1][2] - The month-on-month decline in second-hand home prices slightly widened in May [1] Policy and Market Outlook - Financial policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market were implemented in early May, including reductions in housing provident fund loan rates and LPR for loans over five years, which lowered purchasing costs [2] - The real estate policies are expected to maintain a loose tone in June, with a focus on the implementation of special bonds for land acquisition and urban village renovations [2] - As the mid-year sales period approaches, real estate companies are likely to increase their sales efforts and promotional activities, particularly in core cities, although market differentiation among cities and projects is expected to continue [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI) has significantly reduced prices in multiple projects in Nanjing, leading to widespread dissatisfaction among homeowners and impacting the local real estate market [1][4][5]. Group 1: Price Reductions - The project "Guanjiangyue" in Nanjing saw a price drop from 34,620 yuan per square meter to 23,000 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 33.6% [1]. - "Guanwenlan," another project, dropped from nearly 37,000 yuan per square meter to 24,000 yuan per square meter, with lower floor units even reaching 22,000 yuan per square meter [4]. - The "Heshan" project in Jiangning district reduced its price from approximately 30,000 yuan per square meter to 17,000 yuan per square meter, nearly 60% off the original price [4]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The cost breakdown for "Guanjiangyue" indicates that selling each unit results in a loss of 400,000 to 600,000 yuan, as the total cost exceeds 27,000 yuan per square meter [1]. - The overall financial performance of COLI has deteriorated, with a net profit of 15.63 billion yuan in 2024, significantly lower than its competitors [19]. - The profit margin for COLI has dropped to 17.7%, marking a ten-year low, while the average profit margin for the industry has also declined [19][21]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The aggressive price cuts by COLI have led to a perception of the company as a "price butcher," negatively affecting the sales of surrounding second-hand properties [5][4]. - The real estate market is experiencing a significant slowdown, with new residential construction area down 22.3% year-on-year in the first four months of the year [22]. - The overall sales of new residential properties in April 2025 were approximately 623.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 40.8% decline from March [22].

Core Insights - The real estate market in 2025 is undergoing significant transformation, with increasing divergence between core cities and non-core areas [1] - The latest data from the central bank indicates that the average interest rate for newly issued commercial mortgages has dropped to a historical low of 3.11% [3] - Policy adjustments, such as a reduction in down payment ratios to 15%, are contributing to a market rebound, particularly in first-tier cities where second-hand housing transaction volumes have surged [3] - The land market is showing signs of volatility, with average premium rates for residential land in cities like Hangzhou and Shanghai reaching 43.3% and 29% respectively [3] - Major developers are focusing on core cities, with land acquisition amounts increasing by 26.6% year-on-year, indicating a strategic shift towards high-demand areas [3] Market Dynamics - There is a notable structural opportunity in the market, with core areas in cities like Beijing and Shenzhen experiencing high transaction volumes, while peripheral areas face significant inventory pressure [4] - The central government has signaled a commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, with extensive renovation plans for old neighborhoods and urban villages [4] - New housing standards are being implemented to enhance quality, which will further differentiate property values between well-located homes and those in less desirable areas [5] - The market is characterized by a stark contrast, with first-tier cities seeing continuous price increases while third and fourth-tier cities face declining sales and high inventory levels [5][6] Population and Economic Trends - Population movement and industrial concentration are driving the underlying logic of market divergence, with cities like Shenzhen and Hangzhou attracting young talent and new businesses [5] - The current market conditions present a favorable opportunity for first-time homebuyers in core cities, while owners of non-core assets may face increasing challenges in liquidating their properties [6]

二、保利稳健领跑，越秀华发逆势突围 从企业表现来看，保利发展是当前市场的最大亮点。其3月单月销售金额同比增长7.4%，1-3月累计销售 金额达630.0亿元，同比增长0.2%，成为TOP5房企中唯一实现正增长的企业。这一成绩得益于其在核心 城市的高品质项目布局，以及灵活调整推盘节奏的策略。例如，北京、上海等地的改善型项目去化率维 持在60%以上，显著高于行业平均水平。 相比之下，中海地产成为头部阵营中的主要拖累项。其3月单月销售金额同比下滑48.5%，累计销售金 额同比下降22.9%，主要受高基数效应和部分项目交付延期影响。不过，中海在一线城市的土地储备仍 为其后续修复提供支撑。 2025年1-3月，中国房地产行业延续调整态势。第三方机构数据显示，TOP100房企全口径累计销售金额 7846.7亿元，同比下降7.3%；权益销售金额5766.7亿元，同比下滑5.0%。尽管整体市场承压，但房企表 现分化显著：保利发展（600048）以单月290.0亿元、累计630.0亿元的销售金额领跑榜单，成为头部阵 营中唯一实现正增长的企业；越秀地产、华发股份（600325）则以超40%的累计增速逆势突围，展现出 区域深耕优势 ...