张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 王德健 研究助理 wangdejian@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 流动性改善支持港股补涨，关注创新药与互联网机会 ——港股市场策略周报（0825） 近期流动性叙事的改善，或足以支持港股的补涨。业绩方面，港股目前业绩预 喜率为 2022 年以来新高。展望后市，我们仍然对港股保持乐观态度，方向上建 议聚焦与 A 股存在差异化的行业，节奏上建议先创新药、再互联网，最后新消 费。 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《港股 IPO 的抽水效应如何—— 港股系列研究报告（1）》 2. 《港股市场流动性跟踪框架—— 港股系列研究报告（2）》 ❑ 港股观点更新：流动性叙事的改变，或足以支持港股补涨。近期 Hibor 利率 快速上行后逐步稳定、鲍威尔表态显著转鸽，内外流动性的变化均指向一个 结论：港股流动性趋紧的叙事已经得到了边际改善。我们认为，流动性叙事 的改善已经足 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing activity in the A-share market, driven by a significant rise in new investor accounts and positive earnings forecasts from brokerage firms [1][2] - As of August 6, 2025, 196.36 million new accounts were opened in the A-share market, representing a year-on-year increase of 70.5%, indicating a robust influx of investors [1] - 31 out of 53 listed brokerages in A-shares have released mid-year earnings forecasts, all predicting year-on-year net profit growth, with two firms expecting over 1000% growth in net profit [1] Group 2 - Recent high-level meetings have emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, which may lead to more favorable conditions for IPOs and mergers [1] - The implementation of self-regulatory management measures aims to stabilize the investment behavior of securities firms, enhancing their role in maintaining a healthy capital market [2] - The introduction of new licenses for wealth management services could diversify the product offerings of brokerages, creating new growth opportunities in the wealth management sector [2] Group 3 - The total margin trading balance in the market surpassed 2 trillion yuan, reflecting sustained trading activity and potential benefits for brokerage firms [1] - The low management and custody fees of the Silver Hua Fund's brokerage ETF (0.15% and 0.05% respectively) provide a cost-effective investment tool for capturing opportunities in the brokerage sector [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant increase in new A-share accounts, with 1.9636 million new accounts opened in July 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 70.5%, suggesting a surge in investor participation and potential for continued trading activity in the A-share market [1] - As of August 6, 2025, 31 out of 53 listed brokerages have released mid-year profit forecasts, all expecting year-on-year net profit growth, with two companies projecting over 1000% growth in net profit for the first half of the year [3] - The total margin trading balance in the market surpassed 2 trillion yuan on August 5, indicating sustained trading activity, which is expected to directly benefit the brokerage sector [3] Group 2 - A high-level meeting on July 30 emphasized enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market, which may lead to more accommodating IPO and restructuring standards, as well as easing restrictions on non-public offerings [3] - The implementation of self-regulatory management measures aims to stabilize the investment behavior of securities firms, enhancing their role in maintaining the stability and healthy operation of the capital market [4] - The new self-regulatory guidelines will also facilitate more compliant brokerages in obtaining licenses for selling bank wealth management and insurance products, potentially expanding their wealth management business [4] Group 3 - The brokerage sector is seen as a timely investment opportunity, with the Silver Hua Fund's brokerage ETF (159842) offering a low management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, providing a cost-effective tool for investors to capture opportunities in the brokerage industry [6]

Core Insights - As of July 15, 2025, a total of 1,494 listed companies in the A-share market have released their mid-year performance forecasts [1] - Among these, five companies are expected to achieve net profits exceeding 10 billion yuan in the first half of the year [1] - Notably, 417 companies anticipate a year-on-year increase in net profit exceeding 100% [1] Company Performance Highlights - Among the five companies projected to exceed 10 billion yuan in net profit, four expect a year-on-year growth in net profit [1] - Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. forecasts the highest net profit growth rate, with an upper limit of 973.39% [1] - The significant improvement in Muyuan Foods' performance is attributed to an increase in pig sales volume compared to the same period last year, along with a decrease in breeding costs [1] Factors Driving Performance - The main reasons for the positive performance outlook among these companies include revenue growth, cost reduction, and effective market opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index fell by 0.49% as of 10:56 AM, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Among the constituent stocks, Chengda Biology led with a rise of 7.17%, while Sanofi Biopharma fell by 5.61% [1] - As of July 14, 17 companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board announced their half-year performance forecasts, with 16 companies expecting profit increases, resulting in a positive forecast ratio of 94.12% [1] Group 2 - Companies expecting a net profit increase of over 100% include 8 firms, while 4 firms expect a profit increase between 50% and 100% [1] - The sectors with significant profit growth include electronics and biomedicine, with 8 and 2 companies respectively showing strong performance [1] - The average increase in share price for high-growth companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board this year is 39.15% [1] Group 3 - The A-share market has been performing strongly, driven by the upward trend in U.S. stocks and the performance of technology leaders [2] - The recommendation is to focus on high-growth sectors such as TMT, midstream manufacturing with global competitiveness, and domestic demand sectors [2] - The Sci-Tech 100 ETF (588800) tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 100 Index, with 80% of holdings being companies with a market cap below 20 billion [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities suggests focusing on high-growth TMT sectors, globally competitive midstream manufacturing, domestic demand sectors, and other segments with positive earnings forecasts as A-shares continue to reach new highs this year [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has been consistently setting new highs this year, indicating a strong market performance [1] - The upcoming earnings season is seen as a favorable opportunity for investment, particularly in companies that are expected to exceed earnings forecasts [1] Group 2: Earnings Outlook - The overall earnings improvement rate for A-shares is higher than the same period last year, although the extent of profit improvement may be limited [1] - Structural opportunities remain worth exploring, particularly in sectors with high growth potential [1] Group 3: Sector Focus - Recommended sectors for investment include high-growth TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), globally competitive midstream manufacturing, and domestic demand sectors [1] - Attention should also be given to other sectors that are expected to report positive earnings [1] Group 4: Policy Considerations - Future policies aimed at addressing structural contradictions within industries should be monitored, particularly in relation to the concept of "anti-involution" [1]

Group 1 - As of July 7, 2025, 78 listed companies in A-shares have released their half-year performance forecasts, with approximately 70% of these companies expecting positive results, including profit increases and turnarounds [1] - 25 companies are projected to have a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders exceeding 100%, with companies like Hanyu Pharmaceutical expecting to turn losses into profits [1] Group 2 - Industrial Fulian forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.96 billion to 12.16 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.84% to 39.12%, driven by rapid growth in its cloud computing business and significant revenue growth in AI servers [3] - China Power anticipates a net profit of 800 million to 1.15 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 68.28% to 141.9%, attributed to growth in the shipbuilding industry and expanded sales in the diesel engine sector [3] - Guokui Co. expects a net profit of 34 million to 38 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 130.91% to 158.08%, benefiting from market expansion and cost reduction efforts [3] Group 3 - The semiconductor, basic chemicals, pharmaceutical biology, and automotive industries are the core sectors reporting positive performance [4] - In the semiconductor sector, companies like Tai Lingwei and Ruixinwei expect net profit growth exceeding 100% year-on-year, with Ruixinwei citing growth in the AIoT market as a key driver [4] - In the basic chemicals sector, Lier Chemical and New Hecheng report strong performance, with Lier Chemical expecting a net profit increase of 185.24% to 196.00% due to rising sales and prices [4] - The pharmaceutical biology sector sees significant growth driven by innovation and overseas business, with Shengnuo Bio expecting a net profit increase of 253.54% to 332.10% [4] - In the automotive sector, companies like Jingu Co. and Taotao Automotive expect year-on-year profit growth of 44.06% to 116.08% and 70.34% to 97.81%, respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guangda Special Materials expects significant growth in its performance for the first half of 2025, driven by strong demand in downstream industries and the effectiveness of its investment projects [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a revenue of approximately 2.5 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an increase of about 619 million yuan, or a year-on-year growth of approximately 32.91% [1] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders is around 200 million yuan, an increase of about 157 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 367.51% [1] - Guangda Special Materials has seen a significant increase in sales revenue due to the gradual release of production capacity in its wind power gearbox components project and enhanced average equipment utilization [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall demand in the company's downstream industries is improving, contributing to robust production and sales [1] - The offshore wind power casting project has improved capacity utilization through various technical upgrades and cost-reduction measures, leading to enhanced profitability [1] Group 3: Stock Performance - The company's stock has performed well in 2023, with a cumulative increase of 74.99% as of June 10 [2] - The number of shareholders decreased by 1.89% from the end of May, totaling 9,809 shareholders [2] Group 4: Industry Context - Among A-shares, 13 companies have reported positive performance forecasts for the first half of the year, indicating a favorable trend in the market [4] - Guangda Special Materials ranks among the top companies in terms of net profit scale, with several other companies also showing significant growth in their forecasts [5][6]