特朗普在3日的新闻发布会上称，美国将"管理"委内瑞拉，直到安排好"安全、合理且审慎的权力交接"。法新社说，这表明，美国的介入可能持续很长时 间。特朗普并未直接说明美国军队是否将占领该国，但表示华盛顿"并不惧怕派遣地面部队"。报道称，愈发清晰的一个事实是，特朗普对委内瑞拉丰富的石 油资源兴趣浓厚。根据他的说法，美国大型石油企业将进入委内瑞拉，投资数以十亿计美元，"维修"石油基础设施并创造收益。 据美国哥伦比亚广播公司3日报道，美国国防部长赫格塞思接受采访时说，对委内瑞拉的干预行动与美国入侵伊拉克的情况"完全相反"。他声称，通过这项 战略行动，美国可以确保自身获得"额外的财富与资源，使得另外一个国家能够释放这些东西，而无需美国人付出鲜血"。 据法新社报道，有声音认为，委内瑞拉反对派领导人马查多可能成为委内瑞拉新的领导人。特朗普"出乎意料"地对此表现出冷淡态度，称马查多没有在 委"获得支持或尊重"。相反，他肯定了委内瑞拉副总统罗德里格斯，称"她基本上愿意做我们认为必要的事情，以让委内瑞拉再次伟大"。 综合《纽约时报》、法新社报道，特朗普似乎在暗示他计划向罗德里格斯施压，使其服从美国。但罗德里格斯"泼了盆冷水"，要求 ...

美国抓走马杜罗这事引发了世界级的舆情，很多人都在批判美国又开始当世界警察，开始肆意侵犯他国主权，内政。 直接抓走一国总统，这么离谱的事情美国竟然能干得出来？很多人批评美国霸权主义，世界警察，肆意践踏国际秩序，难道二战后建立的国际秩序不要了 吗？ 没错，我觉得，美国这么搞其实体现了它的虚弱，它真的不打算要二战后的国际秩序了。 美国霸权的衰落是全世界所有人都目睹的，但是美国就是不愿意放弃，还要积极打压中、俄、欧，企图维系霸权。 但是经过这么几年操作，发动俄乌战争，发动和中国的全面对抗，什么贸易战，封锁战，军事威逼…… 到最后，美国发现俄乌战争的确废了俄罗斯和欧洲，但是拿中国美国却没有丝毫办法…… 于是我们看到美国开始推出新版的门罗主义，开始逐渐从全球收缩力量，开始把重点集中在美洲。 拉丁美洲各国是有左翼传统的，以古巴，委内瑞拉等国为代表，一直是左翼联盟执政，对外政策以反美为主。委内瑞拉还是拉丁美洲反美的核心。 美国要收缩，要搞新的门罗主义，肯定要拿这些国家开刀。 于是我们看到美国围绕着委内瑞拉搞军事封锁几个月，最后选择了成本最低，效果最好的斩首行动，直接派特种部队抓走了一国元首马杜罗。 这也是杀鸡儆猴，警告拉美其 ...

"今天是委内瑞拉，明天就可能是任何一个国家。"智利总统博里奇这句话可谓一针见血，一语道破国际 社会的普遍忧虑。当美国撕掉"规则秩序"的虚伪面具，当丛林法则取代国际准则，没有任何一个主权国 家是安全的。 正如英国《卫报》所指出的，这一操作与伊拉克战争如出一辙，延续了美国通过武力颠覆他国政权、攫 取自然资源的一贯套路。从罗织罪名到军事打击，从政权颠覆到资本瓜分，美国这套完整的"现代海盗 逻辑"，完全无视国家主权平等和禁止使用武力的国际法基本原则，将世界拉回了弱肉强食的野蛮殖民 时代。 追溯历史，美国抱持"门罗主义"将拉美视为自家"后院"，两百多年来不断通过策动政变、武装入侵、经 济制裁等手段干涉拉美内政，从墨西哥到巴拿马，从智利到海地，无数拉美国家沦为其霸权野心的牺牲 品。此次对委内瑞拉的行动，不过是美国干涉主义的最新篇章。 事实上，美国口中的"基于规则的国际秩序"，从来都不是什么普世正义的灯塔，而是服务于美国利益 的"掠夺秩序"。当规则符合其利益时，美国便拿规则当武器指责他国；当规则阻碍其掠夺时，美国便毫 不犹豫地撕碎规则，动用武力强行开路。此次对委内瑞拉的军事行动，再次让世界看清了这一本质。 当丛林法则取代国 ...

吕祥认为，国际社会对此的反应是明确且广泛的。从拉丁美洲的巴西、墨西哥、哥伦比亚，到欧洲乃至亚洲，全球形成了坚决反对这一侵略行为的强大共 识。他强调，无论美国如何为其行动寻找借口，这种公然违反国际法、践踏他国主权的行为都是不可接受的。然而，他也清醒地指出一个残酷现实：在当 前国际格局下，尤其是在西半球，尚无任何国家具备足够的政治或军事能力来有效抵制美国的此类霸权行径——这正是美国敢于如此肆无忌惮的根本原 因。 吕祥认为，美国此举的战略目标远不止于委内瑞拉一国。他指出，该行动带有强烈的威慑与恫吓色彩，意在向整个拉美地区、特别是左翼执政国家发出警 告，试图通过打击马杜罗政府影响未来各国选举走向，迫使它们的政策符合华盛顿的愿景。 （来源：直新闻） 当地时间1月3日，美国采取特别军事行动，公然进入委内瑞拉领土并强行控制其国家领导人，引发全球震惊。中国社会科学院美国问题研究专家吕祥在接 受直新闻采访时表示，这一行径不仅是对委内瑞拉主权赤裸裸的侵犯，更是对二战后国际法体系与多边秩序的沉重打击。他指出，此举标志着特朗普政府 正以前所未有的方式重启并强化其在西半球的"新门罗主义"。 "你要支持他的话，你就是丧失了你基本的道德人 ...

新京报记者 谢莲 编辑 陈晓舒 校对张彦君 "这里信号不是很好……好像是附近有一个信号塔被炸了……"当地时间1月3日上午11时许，在委内瑞拉 首都加拉加斯生活了近20年的华人李荔（化名）接受了新京报记者的连线采访，"现在外面很平静，甚 至静得有点吓人……"此时距离加拉加斯遭美国袭击已过去约6个小时。 当地时间1月3日凌晨，美国袭击委内瑞拉，在几个小时的行动中抓走了委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其妻子。 他们先被带至美军"硫磺岛"号军舰，后通过直升机被带至美国纽约，被送至布鲁克林大都会拘留中心。 美方官员称，马杜罗夫妇预计将于当地时间1月5日晚出庭受审。 美国总统特朗普1月3日中午在海湖庄园发表全国讲话，公布了更多行动细节。他说，美国此次军事行动 的目标就是"抓捕"马杜罗。他还表示，美国将"管理"委内瑞拉直至该国实现"安全、妥善和公正的过 渡"。央视新闻报道指出，委内瑞拉宪法法院3日已作出裁决，任命委内瑞拉副总统罗德里格斯代行总统 职权。 美国袭击委内瑞拉并带走该国总统，引发世界哗然。多国领导人对此予以强烈谴责，认为这是对委内瑞 拉主权和领土的侵犯，同时将破坏拉美地区的和平与稳定。联合国秘书长古特雷斯3日发表声明说，对 ...

Group 1: Venezuela's Economic Decline - Venezuela has transitioned from a prosperous nation to one of the most severe economic downturns globally, with 86% of its population living in poverty and a GDP contraction exceeding 70% since 1999 [1][3] - The country experienced hyperinflation, peaking at 10 million percent in 2019, leading to a situation where citizens used money as toilet paper rather than for purchases [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. has engaged in aggressive actions in Venezuela, viewing it as a strategic move in a broader geopolitical game, particularly concerning oil and resources [2][7] - The U.S. has signaled a new Monroe Doctrine, indicating that its interests in the Western Hemisphere will not be limited to Venezuela alone, suggesting a potential escalation in regional conflicts [8] Group 3: Commodity Market Reactions - The recent geopolitical tensions are expected to impact commodity markets, particularly gold and silver, with significant sell-offs anticipated due to rebalancing in the Bloomberg Commodity Index [10][12] - Analysts predict substantial sell-offs in precious metals, estimating around $3.8 billion in total for gold and silver due to market adjustments [11][12]

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 来源 | 财信期货研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 事件： 当地时间2026年1月3日凌晨，美军空袭委内瑞拉，抓获委内瑞拉总统。特朗普在随后的新闻发布会表示，将组建团队管理委内瑞拉，美国大 型石油公司将进入委内瑞拉。短期地缘风险爆发，市场波动将放大。 一、 美国、委内瑞拉两国关系历史回顾 19 世纪初，委内瑞拉独立后，美国通过 "门罗主义" 将其纳入势力范围，1902 年以债务纠纷对委实施海军封锁，强化了委的反美情绪。 20 世纪初，委内瑞拉发现石油，美国资本迅速涌入，美孚等公司控制其石油工业，形成 "资源控制 — 政治依附" 的模式，委成为美国重要 石油供应地。 二战后至冷战中期，美国长期扶持亲美政府，深度介入委石油业，将其视为拉美 "后院" 核心资产，双方保持合作但不平等的关系。 2、转向对抗时期 1998 年查韦斯当选总统，推行 "21 世纪社会主义"，收回石油主权、反美反霸，美委关系彻底转向对抗。 2002 年 4 月，委发生短暂政变，查韦斯迅速复位，指责美国情报部门支持政变，成为双边关系恶化的关键节点。 2006 年，小布什政府以反恐不配合为由禁止向委出口武器 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the need for market participants to pay attention to potential geopolitical "black swan" events that could significantly impact global asset prices by 2026 [1][7]. Geopolitical Risks - The risk of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict into a full-scale confrontation between Russia and Europe is increasing, driven by Russia's battlefield advantages and heightened concerns among Eastern European countries [9]. - The fragile peace in the Middle East and the Caucasus region poses a risk of renewed conflict, particularly with Israel potentially seeking decisive action to ensure its security amid a strategic U.S. withdrawal [14]. - The strategic balance in the South Asian subcontinent is under threat, as the U.S. shifts its focus away from the Indo-Pacific, potentially diminishing India's strategic value and increasing the likelihood of conflict with Pakistan [17]. - Domestic political risks in the U.S. are rising, particularly concerning Trump, as internal support fractures and external pressures mount, which could lead to increased political instability [22]. - Opportunistic strategic risks in the Asia-Pacific region may arise as the U.S. reduces its strategic presence, encouraging countries like Japan and the Philippines to take more adventurous actions [24]. - The rise of "new Monroe Doctrine" in South America could disrupt global trade and supply chains, as the U.S. seeks to assert its dominance in the region, increasing geopolitical risks [25]. Investment Recommendations - Despite the identified geopolitical risks, China's economic resilience and policy stability are viewed as crucial stabilizing factors for the global market [28]. - Investors are advised to establish a geopolitical risk monitoring framework, increase allocations to safe-haven assets like gold and the renminbi, and focus on regions that may benefit from uncertainty, particularly those closely linked to the Chinese economy [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, particularly in relation to its vast oil reserves, and how this aligns with Trump's national security strategy to exert greater influence in South America, which is becoming a key driver of global oil production [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Intervention and Oil Politics - The U.S. has been actively intervening in Venezuela under the pretext of combating drug trafficking and illegal immigration, with military actions resulting in significant casualties [1][6]. - Venezuela possesses the largest proven oil reserves globally, yet its production has plummeted from nearly 4 million barrels per day in 2000 to approximately 960,000 barrels per day currently due to mismanagement and sanctions [5][6]. - Trump's administration aims to control oil supply to lower prices, reducing reliance on OPEC, and potentially increasing U.S. influence in the region [2][3]. Group 2: Corporate Involvement - Chevron is the only U.S. oil producer operating in Venezuela, producing about 25% of the country's oil, and has received a new restrictive license to continue operations despite sanctions [8]. - The geopolitical environment is challenging, but Chevron's CEO emphasizes the long-term potential of Venezuela's rich geological resources and the company's commitment to the local economy [8]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The article highlights that U.S. actions in Venezuela are influenced by hawkish Republican politicians and local opposition to Maduro, advocating for greater military intervention [9]. - The potential for U.S. companies to profit from Venezuelan oil resources is a significant argument for intervention, with the expectation that a regime change could unlock this potential [9].

Core Viewpoint - The global tariff increase policy implemented by the U.S. government has significantly impacted the Latin American region, which is highly integrated with the U.S. economy. The UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) emphasizes the urgent need for these countries to reduce their trade dependence on the U.S. and pursue market diversification strategies [1][2]. Trade Dependency Challenges - Since the U.S. imposed a new round of tariffs in February, the average actual tariff faced by Latin America has reached 10%, with Brazil being the most affected at 33%. Despite a projected 5% growth in goods exports by 2025, structural risks remain [2]. - The current trade resilience is largely due to U.S. importers engaging in "front-loading" to avoid anticipated tariffs, indicating that this short-term prosperity is unsustainable. The negative impacts of tariffs are expected to become more pronounced by 2026 [2]. - Foreign investment attractiveness has been severely undermined, with new foreign investment projects in Latin America totaling only $31.374 billion in the first half of 2025, a 53% year-on-year decline and 37% below the average from 2015 to 2024. Investment in export-oriented industries targeting the U.S. market has contracted significantly, with declines exceeding 60% in sectors like automotive, consumer goods, and metal minerals [2]. Structural Transformation Setbacks - The deep dependence of Latin America on the U.S. market is rooted in over a century of "center-periphery" economic relations, with the Monroe Doctrine shaping U.S. policies towards the region. This has led to a dependency on primary product exports, resulting in weak industrial manufacturing and development capabilities [6]. - Despite efforts to promote industrial transformation, the region remains heavily reliant on primary product exports, particularly to the U.S. market, where a significant portion of imports in categories like bananas, sugar, and refined copper comes from Latin America [6]. - Internal structural challenges, such as high informal employment rates, tax system flaws, and inadequate infrastructure, complicate the path to reducing market dependency [7]. Diversified Cooperation for Solutions - To address tariff escalations and dependency issues, ECLAC recommends that regional countries deepen trade relations with diverse partners, including China, the EU, India, and ASEAN, while enhancing regional infrastructure connectivity and trade facilitation [8]. - The current U.S. administration's "America First" policy, characterized by exclusivity, poses challenges to Latin America's ability to collaborate with other major powers. However, the rise of the Global South offers new strategic opportunities for Latin America [8]. - Latin American countries are actively seeking diversified cooperation channels, focusing on practical collaboration with major economies and enhancing South-South cooperation through multilateral platforms [9]. Regional Integration Revitalization - Latin American regional integration is experiencing a resurgence, with leaders focusing on strengthening regional cooperation to collectively address external interventions and hegemonic actions. Countries like Brazil and Colombia are promoting regional integration processes in key areas such as security and energy connectivity [9].