从出口看，2025年10月，加拿大金属和非金属矿产品出口额增长27.3%，创下新高。此外，汽车及零部 件出口额增长4.1%；而能源产品出口额下降8.4%，抑制了出口额整体增幅。 中新网北京1月9日电 加拿大统计局2026年1月8日公布的数据显示，由于进口增速加快，2025年10月该 国全球商品贸易逆差为5.83亿加元，由顺差转逆。 加统计局数据显示，2025年10月该国商品进口额为662亿加元，环比增长3.4%；出口额为656亿加元， 环比上升2.1%。商品贸易收支差额由同年9月的2.43亿加元顺差，转为10月的5.83亿加元逆差。 加统计局指出，2025年10月加拿大商品进口额反弹。电子电气设备零部件进口额增长10.2%。其中，计 算机及其外围设备进口额增幅达32.2%，创历史新高，主要得益于从爱尔兰进口的处理器数量增加。通 信、音视频设备进口额也有所增长，主要因从中国和美国进口智能手机的规模大幅提高。此外，金属和 非金属矿物制品进口额增长9.5%，其中未锻造的黄金、白银和铂族金属进口额增长55.3%。 数据显示，加拿大对美国的贸易顺差大幅收窄。2025年10月，加拿大对美出口贸易额下降3.4%，而进 口贸 ...

6.2%，这是今年我国前11个月货物贸易出口的同比增速（以人民币计价）。在个别国家单边实施高关 税的冲击下，这一数据可以说远超年初预期。预期之外，反映的是长期以来我国深入推进制造业转型升 级、贸易伙伴多元化布局带来的出口韧性。 一般而言，包括零部件、原材料和半成品在内的中间品，以及用于扩大再生产的工业设备（通常被看 作"资本品"）在出口商品中占比越高，意味着出口结构更优。原因在于，相较直接面向终端市场的最终 消费品，这两类产品往往体现出一个国家在全球产业链价值链中处于中上游位置。 今年以来，我国出口商品结构升级趋势进一步凸显，"中国智造"成为更多贸易伙伴的共同选择。市场机 构根据海关总署数据测算出，今年前10个月，我国中间品、资本品的出口增速分别为9.7%和6%，累计 拉动整体出口5.6个百分点。从份额看，前三季度中间品占总出口的比重提升至47.4%，较去年末提高2 个百分点。 无论制造业转型升级还是出口市场的多元布局，都是长期调整积累下来的优势，未来仍将继续存在。同 时，中美元首釜山会晤取得积极成果，中美贸易形势趋于缓和，市场对于明年外贸形势的基本判断仍相 对乐观。不过，贸易保护主义和单边主义始终是悬在全球 ...

6.2%，这是今年我国前11个月货物贸易出口的同比增速(以人民币计价)。在个别国家单边实施高关税的 冲击下，这一数据可以说远超年初预期。预期之外，反映的是长期以来我国深入推进制造业转型升级、 贸易伙伴多元化布局带来的出口韧性。 一般而言，包括零部件、原材料和半成品在内的中间品，以及用于扩大再生产的工业设备(通常被看 作"资本品")在出口商品中占比越高，意味着出口结构更优。原因在于，相较直接面向终端市场的最终 消费品，这两类产品往往体现出一个国家在全球产业链价值链中处于中上游位置。 今年以来，我国出口商品结构升级趋势进一步凸显，"中国智造"成为更多贸易伙伴的共同选择。市场机 构根据海关总署数据测算出，今年前10个月，我国中间品、资本品的出口增速分别为9.7%和6%，累计 拉动整体出口5.6个百分点。从份额看，前三季度中间品占总出口的比重提升至47.4%，较去年末提高2 个百分点。 制造业的硬实力是出口保持增长的关键支撑，同时，贸易伙伴多元化布局为应对外部冲击提供了更大的 回旋余地。海关总署数据显示，以人民币计价，今年前11个月，我国对美国出口同比下降18.3%；但是 对非洲、东盟、印度、欧盟、英国、拉美和澳大利 ...

结构性转型受挫 图为秘鲁钱凯港的码头操作区。（新华社发） 今年以来，美国政府实施的全球性关税上调政策，对长期与美国经济高度捆绑的拉美地区造成显著冲 击。联合国拉丁美洲和加勒比经济委员会（以下简称"拉加经委会"）近日发布《2025拉美和加勒比地区 国际贸易展望》报告明确指出，地区各国亟需减少对美贸易依赖，坚定推进市场多元化战略。然而， 在"新门罗主义"阴影持续笼罩的背景下，美国对拉美政策表现出更强的攻击性和排他性，试图通过各类 极限施压手段，实现短期战略利益。拉美能否增强经济韧性与战略自主，再次成为国际社会关注的焦 点。 依赖困境难摆脱 数据显示，自今年2月美国实施新一轮关税后，拉美地区面临的平均实际关税为10%，其中巴西受影响 最为明显，平均关税已达33%。尽管初步预测显示，2025年该地区货物出口额仍可能保持5%的增长， 但这背后潜藏着结构性风险。 拉加经委会分析，当前的贸易数据韧性很大程度上源于美国进口商为规避预期关税而进行的"提前进 口"囤货行为。这种政策刺激下的短期繁荣难以持续。报告警告，在拉美与美国深度交织的经贸关系 下，加征关税的实质性负面影响将在2026年更加充分地显现。 更为深远的影响在于投资 ...

Core Viewpoint - South Africa is benefiting from a broad network of trade agreements covering 90 countries, which represent 28% of global GDP, maintaining resilience in its import and export trade despite global trade disruptions [2][3]. Trade Relations and Negotiations - The South African Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition, Ebrahim Patel, highlighted ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. to reduce tariffs and enhance export competitiveness, following the expiration of the AGOA benefits [3][4]. - South Africa is focusing on diversifying its trade partners and strengthening its industrial base to adapt to the changing global trade environment [3][4]. Trade Statistics - In 2024, South Africa's total trade volume is projected to be $199.7 billion, with exports at $98.6 billion and imports at $101.1 billion [2]. - In October 2025, South Africa recorded a trade surplus of 15.6 billion rand, with exports increasing by 2.8% and imports by 7.2% from September to October [4]. Agricultural Exports - South Africa's agricultural exports have shown strong performance, reaching $11.7 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a 10% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [5][6]. - The agricultural sector achieved a trade surplus of $2.7 billion in Q3 2025, marking a 28% increase year-on-year [5][6]. Regional Trade Dynamics - Africa accounted for 34% of South Africa's agricultural exports in Q3 2025, with Asia and the Middle East at 25%, and the EU at 23% [6]. - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 11% year-on-year to $14.4 million, highlighting the importance of favorable trade terms with the U.S. for South Africa's agricultural sector [6]. Strategic Recommendations - South Africa's agricultural sector must focus on maintaining existing export markets and exploring new ones, improving logistics efficiency, and enhancing market access within BRICS nations [7]. - Investments in port and railway infrastructure are essential for sustaining export growth and competitiveness [7]. China-South Africa Trade Relations - China remains South Africa's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years, with trade volume reaching $52.46 billion in 2024, accounting for nearly one-fifth of total China-Africa trade [8]. - Recent policy measures from China, including zero-tariff policies for African countries, are expected to enhance South Africa's agricultural export competitiveness [8].

海关总署12月8日发布的最新数据显示，11月我国货物贸易进出口总值3.9万亿元，同比增速回升至 4.1%，比上月加快4个百分点，从2月起连续10个月保持同比增长。其中，出口2.35万亿元，同比增长 5.7%;进口1.55万亿元，同比增长1.7%。在外部环境复杂多变的背景下，我国外贸韧性进一步得到验 证。 从贸易伙伴看，新兴市场仍是稳外贸的关键支撑。前11个月，我国对第一大贸易伙伴东盟进出口总值 6.82万亿元，同比增长8.5%，占外贸总值的16.6%。同期，我国对共建"一带一路"国家合计进出口21.33 万亿元，同比增长6%。在中国首席经济学家论坛理事陈雳看来，我国外贸对传统发达经济体的依赖度 持续降低，东盟与共建"一带一路"国家已成为稳固的"基本盘"，贸易伙伴的多元化显著提升了抗风险能 力。 面对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性，今年以来，我国稳外贸的一揽子政策持续发力，在金融信贷、退税 便利化、跨境电商等方面不断加大支持力度，与市场形成良性互动，缓解企业成本压力，稳定订单预 期。 "未来稳外贸政策方向将更侧重于通过制度型开放与结构性支持来巩固和引导外贸转型趋势。"陈雳表 示，政策储备预计将沿三大主轴发力：一是深 ...

Core Viewpoint - The future direction of the RMB exchange rate is crucial, with a focus on preventing excessive appreciation to avoid impacting exports. Stability remains the key theme [1][7]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB exchange rate has a long-term foundation for stable appreciation due to factors such as the new phase of "two-way investment," diversification of trade partners, and improvements in labor productivity [1][4]. - The RMB's strength or weakness directly influences the motivation for Chinese enterprises to invest abroad, with a stable RMB reducing exchange rate risks for overseas investments [5][6]. Group 2: Changes in China's Economic Structure - China is transitioning to a "two-way investment" phase, balancing foreign direct investment (FDI) and outward direct investment (ODI), with ODI surpassing FDI since 2015 [4][5]. - By 2024, China's ODI is projected to grow by 8.4%, reaching a global share of 11.9%, maintaining a position among the top three globally for 13 consecutive years [4]. Group 3: Trade Partner Diversification - China's trade concentration is decreasing, with exports to the top three trading partners (U.S., EU, ASEAN) dropping from 50.8% in 2019 to 45.5% in 2024, indicating enhanced economic resilience [6][7]. - The share of exports to "Belt and Road" countries has increased from under 25% in 2013 to 47% in 2024, reflecting a significant shift in trade dynamics [6]. Group 4: Global Currency Landscape - The international status and appreciation potential of the RMB are strengthening amid challenges to the dollar's credibility and a trend towards diversification of global central bank reserves [8][9]. - The share of the dollar in global official foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 61.5% in 2020 to an expected 56.32% by 2025, indicating a shift in global currency preferences [8]. Group 5: Domestic Economic Fundamentals - Continuous improvement in domestic economic fundamentals, such as rising labor productivity and a shift towards high-end manufacturing and technology exports, supports the RMB's long-term appreciation [9][10]. - The RMB is considered undervalued based on purchasing power parity, with estimates suggesting it could be closer to a 1:3.5 ratio rather than the current market rate of approximately 7.1 [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The long-standing close economic relationship between Canada and the United States has come to an end, necessitating a shift in Canada's trade strategy to diversify its partners and create greater autonomy [1] Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff policies are projected to result in an economic loss of approximately 50 billion Canadian dollars for Canada, which is equivalent to 1.8% of the country's GDP [1] Strategic Shift - Canada must adjust its strategy as its previous reliance on the U.S. has shifted from an advantage to a vulnerability, highlighting the need for a more diversified trade approach [1]

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the upgraded version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (FTA) 3.0 in Kuala Lumpur marks a significant milestone in enhancing economic cooperation between China and ASEAN countries, expanding collaboration into new areas such as supply chain connectivity, digital economy, and green economy [3][4]. Group 1: Trade Growth - Since its implementation in 2010, the China-ASEAN FTA has led to a substantial increase in bilateral trade, with trade volume rising from $192.5 billion in 2008 to an estimated $982 billion in 2024, representing an increase of over five times [3]. - The upgraded FTA encompasses nine key areas, focusing on advanced fields such as digital economy and green economy [3]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The negotiations for the FTA 3.0 version began in November 2022 and are set to conclude in October 2024, highlighting the strategic importance of this agreement in the context of global trade dynamics [4]. - The FTA's significance has been amplified following the U.S. government's imposition of tariffs on major trading partners, prompting ASEAN countries to accelerate their diversification of trade partnerships with China [4]. Group 3: Regional Leadership - Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim described the agreement as a "milestone achievement," indicating that it will usher in a new era of strategic cooperation between ASEAN and China, significantly enhancing the region's economic resilience [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese economy and its strategic planning under the "Fifteen Plan" (十五规划), focusing on maintaining economic growth and addressing challenges in various sectors, particularly technology and real estate. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Target**: The GDP growth target for the "Fifteen Plan" is expected to be set above the potential growth rate, reflecting a commitment to maintaining necessary growth levels [3][4][6]. 2. **Role of Technology Innovation**: Technology innovation is emphasized as a core component of the "Fifteen Plan," with increased fiscal support directed towards enterprises and industries to enhance their innovative capabilities [4][5]. 3. **Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies**: The implementation of macroeconomic stabilization policies aims to reduce market volatility and provide greater certainty for capital markets, thereby boosting investor confidence [6][7]. 4. **Deflationary Pressures**: The Chinese economy is currently facing deflationary pressures, particularly in the manufacturing and export sectors. Solutions include enhancing pricing power through supply-side adjustments [7][8]. 5. **Challenges in Domestic Demand**: The domestic market is under pressure, especially due to real estate issues and a slowdown in urbanization. Future urbanization efforts may focus on less developed regions to promote balanced development [8][9]. 6. **Unified National Market**: The establishment of a unified national market aims to address issues of chaotic low-price competition and promote positive price adjustments, which will support supply-side reforms [9][10]. 7. **Fiscal Policy for Economic Growth**: The fiscal policy for 2025 is designed to maintain a strong stance, with a nominal deficit rate of 4% and an actual deficit rate projected to remain around 10%, focusing on social welfare and transfer payments [10][11]. 8. **Employment Market Challenges**: The employment market faces challenges, particularly for low-skilled workers and recent graduates. Measures include subsidies for job stability and skills training [12][13]. 9. **International Trade Dynamics**: China's technology sector is expected to gain competitiveness, reducing reliance on U.S. trade, which enhances China's position in global trade dynamics [14][15][16]. 10. **Diversification of Trade Partners**: There is a trend towards diversifying trade partners, with increased trade with developing countries, particularly in Africa, to mitigate the impacts of changing U.S.-China trade relations [18]. Additional Important Insights - The call highlights the importance of aligning fiscal policies with social needs and adjusting the central-local fiscal relationship to alleviate local financial pressures [11][12]. - The discussion on the semiconductor industry indicates that China is on track to become a major player in chip exports, reflecting significant advancements in technology [16][17]. - The strategic approach to U.S.-China relations emphasizes a balance between responding to U.S. actions and maintaining a stable economic environment [17][18].