需要防止人民币过快、过度升值，以免冲击出口。稳定仍然是最重要的关键词。 在全球经济结构深度调整、主要经济体货币政策持续博弈的背景下，人民币汇率的未来走向备受市场关注。 11月21日，在"2025第一财经金融价值年会"上，中欧国际工商学院经济学与金融学教授、中国首席经济学家论坛研究院院长盛松成发表主旨演讲《新阶段下 对人民币汇率的一些新认识》。他指出，人民币汇率中长期存在稳中有升的基础，这一判断来自我国进入"双向投资"新阶段、贸易伙伴加速多元化、劳动生 产率提升等多方面的综合支撑。 盛松成表示，中国的对外经济结构正在发生深刻变化，这些变化不仅将塑造人民币汇率的中长期走势，也将对全球贸易格局产生重要影响。 中国已进入"双向投资"阶段：人民币强弱将影响"走出去"动力 随着中国经济逐步由投资驱动向创新驱动转型，资本跨境流动模式也发生深刻变化。盛松成首先强调，中国正在从"引进来"为主，迈向"引进来"与"走出 去"并重的"双向投资"阶段。二十届四中全会提出"拓展双向投资合作空间"，进一步明确了这一方向。 他指出，自2013年提出"一带一路"倡议和上海自贸区成立以来，中国对外直接投资（ODI）加速增长，2015年成为我国双 ...

Core Viewpoint - The long-standing close economic relationship between Canada and the United States has come to an end, necessitating a shift in Canada's trade strategy to diversify its partners and create greater autonomy [1] Economic Impact - The U.S. tariff policies are projected to result in an economic loss of approximately 50 billion Canadian dollars for Canada, which is equivalent to 1.8% of the country's GDP [1] Strategic Shift - Canada must adjust its strategy as its previous reliance on the U.S. has shifted from an advantage to a vulnerability, highlighting the need for a more diversified trade approach [1]

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the upgraded version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (FTA) 3.0 in Kuala Lumpur marks a significant milestone in enhancing economic cooperation between China and ASEAN countries, expanding collaboration into new areas such as supply chain connectivity, digital economy, and green economy [3][4]. Group 1: Trade Growth - Since its implementation in 2010, the China-ASEAN FTA has led to a substantial increase in bilateral trade, with trade volume rising from $192.5 billion in 2008 to an estimated $982 billion in 2024, representing an increase of over five times [3]. - The upgraded FTA encompasses nine key areas, focusing on advanced fields such as digital economy and green economy [3]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The negotiations for the FTA 3.0 version began in November 2022 and are set to conclude in October 2024, highlighting the strategic importance of this agreement in the context of global trade dynamics [4]. - The FTA's significance has been amplified following the U.S. government's imposition of tariffs on major trading partners, prompting ASEAN countries to accelerate their diversification of trade partnerships with China [4]. Group 3: Regional Leadership - Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim described the agreement as a "milestone achievement," indicating that it will usher in a new era of strategic cooperation between ASEAN and China, significantly enhancing the region's economic resilience [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese economy and its strategic planning under the "Fifteen Plan" (十五规划), focusing on maintaining economic growth and addressing challenges in various sectors, particularly technology and real estate. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Target**: The GDP growth target for the "Fifteen Plan" is expected to be set above the potential growth rate, reflecting a commitment to maintaining necessary growth levels [3][4][6]. 2. **Role of Technology Innovation**: Technology innovation is emphasized as a core component of the "Fifteen Plan," with increased fiscal support directed towards enterprises and industries to enhance their innovative capabilities [4][5]. 3. **Macroeconomic Stabilization Policies**: The implementation of macroeconomic stabilization policies aims to reduce market volatility and provide greater certainty for capital markets, thereby boosting investor confidence [6][7]. 4. **Deflationary Pressures**: The Chinese economy is currently facing deflationary pressures, particularly in the manufacturing and export sectors. Solutions include enhancing pricing power through supply-side adjustments [7][8]. 5. **Challenges in Domestic Demand**: The domestic market is under pressure, especially due to real estate issues and a slowdown in urbanization. Future urbanization efforts may focus on less developed regions to promote balanced development [8][9]. 6. **Unified National Market**: The establishment of a unified national market aims to address issues of chaotic low-price competition and promote positive price adjustments, which will support supply-side reforms [9][10]. 7. **Fiscal Policy for Economic Growth**: The fiscal policy for 2025 is designed to maintain a strong stance, with a nominal deficit rate of 4% and an actual deficit rate projected to remain around 10%, focusing on social welfare and transfer payments [10][11]. 8. **Employment Market Challenges**: The employment market faces challenges, particularly for low-skilled workers and recent graduates. Measures include subsidies for job stability and skills training [12][13]. 9. **International Trade Dynamics**: China's technology sector is expected to gain competitiveness, reducing reliance on U.S. trade, which enhances China's position in global trade dynamics [14][15][16]. 10. **Diversification of Trade Partners**: There is a trend towards diversifying trade partners, with increased trade with developing countries, particularly in Africa, to mitigate the impacts of changing U.S.-China trade relations [18]. Additional Important Insights - The call highlights the importance of aligning fiscal policies with social needs and adjusting the central-local fiscal relationship to alleviate local financial pressures [11][12]. - The discussion on the semiconductor industry indicates that China is on track to become a major player in chip exports, reflecting significant advancements in technology [16][17]. - The strategic approach to U.S.-China relations emphasizes a balance between responding to U.S. actions and maintaining a stable economic environment [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the European Union's (EU) efforts to diversify its trade partnerships in response to the trade policies of the Trump administration, particularly the imposition of tariffs on EU goods [1][3]. Group 1: EU's Trade Strategy - The EU and Indonesia have reached a political consensus to advance a trade agreement, aiming for Indonesian goods to enter the EU market tariff-free [3][4]. - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the importance of partnerships in a turbulent world, indicating that countries affected by U.S. tariffs are welcome to rely on Europe [3][4]. - The EU plans to strengthen trade ties with other economies, including South America and India, to establish new bilateral trade agreements [1][4]. Group 2: Response to U.S. Tariffs - The EU has extended the suspension of its trade countermeasures against the U.S. until August 1, allowing more time for negotiations [4]. - The EU aims to limit trade conflicts primarily to the U.S. market, which constitutes about 15% of global trade, while protecting the remaining 85% [4][5]. - The EU is also engaging with other affected partners like Canada and Japan to explore coordinated responses to U.S. tariffs [4][5]. Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - Other major economies, including Canada and the UK, are also seeking to diversify their trade relationships in light of the changing global trade landscape [7][8]. - Canada is accelerating negotiations for a free trade agreement with ASEAN countries, while the UK is re-engaging in trade talks with Canada to strengthen global business ties [7][8]. - In Latin America, Brazil and Mexico are initiating preparatory talks to deepen trade agreements, highlighting a trend towards regional integration [8].

从东南亚到南美，从欧盟到加拿大，世界主要经济体正积极寻求贸易伙伴多元化。 14日，欧盟委员会执行副主席兼竞争事务专员里贝拉（Teresa Ribera）进一步表示，欧盟将与更多经济 体加强贸易联系，"我们需要探索在太平洋地区与其他国家合作的深度和广度。" 德国ifo经济研究所国际经济研究中心副主任鲍尔（Andreas Baur）对第一财经记者表示，美国政府的贸 易政策导致了前所未有的贸易政策不确定性。在此背景下，欧盟应加强与其他国家建立新的双边贸易协 议，"这要求通过与南美的南方共同市场（Mercosur）、印度或印度尼西亚的新双边协议，以及诸边世 贸组织（WTO）倡议来推动以规则为基础的贸易。" 欧盟加速多元化贸易布局 据报道，印尼和欧盟正就《全面经济伙伴关系协议》进行谈判，确保印度尼西亚商品可以免关税进入欧 盟市场。 冯德莱恩在与印尼总统普拉博沃共同出席的联合新闻发布会上表示："我们生活在一个动荡的时代，经 济不确定性与地缘政治风险交织，而像我们这样的伙伴必须更加紧密地团结在一起。"她还含蓄地提及 特朗普政府的贸易政策："在艰难时期，一些国家选择向内收缩，走向孤立和分裂。"她向受美国关税政 策影响的国家发 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade has shown remarkable resilience in the first half of the year, becoming a significant driver of economic growth despite external pressures, particularly from the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Trade Partnerships and Growth - By the end of 2024, China has become a major trading partner for over 150 countries and regions globally [2] - In the first five months of this year, China's exports to Africa, ASEAN, Latin America, and the EU grew by 20.2%, 13.5%, 10.6%, and 7.7% respectively, significantly outpacing overall export growth rates [2] - The shift in export focus towards non-U.S. regions, particularly ASEAN, the EU, and the Middle East, has been a key factor in the unexpected export performance [2] Group 2: Trade Agreements and Cooperation - During the second China-Central Asia Summit, China reached 110 cooperation agreements with five Central Asian countries [3] - The second meeting of the Joint Committee for the China-Georgia Free Trade Agreement focused on upgrading the agreement across four chapters, including sanitary measures and electronic commerce [4][5] Group 3: Manufacturing and Export Strength - China's high-tech product exports increased by 7.4% in the first five months, with significant growth in biotechnology, computer integration, optoelectronics, and electronic technology products [6] - The global competitiveness of China's technology-intensive and capital-intensive products, such as consumer electronics and lithium batteries, is expected to maintain rapid growth in exports [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of China's foreign trade in the first half of the year, driven by diversified trade partners and a robust manufacturing system, despite external pressures such as the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" [1][2] - China's exports to Africa, ASEAN, Latin America, and the EU saw significant growth in the first five months, with increases of 20.2%, 13.5%, 10.6%, and 7.7% respectively, outperforming overall export growth rates by substantial margins [2] - The shift in China's export focus towards non-U.S. regions, particularly ASEAN, the EU, and the Middle East, is a strategic response to the global trade environment, aiming to mitigate tariff risks and enhance trade partnerships [2][3] Group 2 - Recent agreements, such as the 110 cooperation consensus reached during the China-Central Asia Summit and the upgrade of the China-Georgia Free Trade Agreement, reflect China's commitment to trade liberalization and multilateralism amid rising protectionism [3] - High-tech product exports from China increased by 7.4% in the first five months, with notable double-digit growth in biotechnology, computer integrated manufacturing technology, optoelectronics, and electronic technology products [4] - The competitive edge of China's manufacturing in global supply chains, particularly in sectors like consumer electronics and lithium batteries, is expected to sustain strong export growth in the future [4]

Group 1 - South Africa's President Ramaphosa received a letter from the U.S. President proposing a unilateral 30% tariff on South African exports starting August 1, 2025, which is currently under negotiation [1] - The U.S. justification for the tariff is based on a "specific interpretation" of trade balance, which South Africa disputes as controversial [1] - South Africa's average import tariff is only 7.6%, with 56% of goods enjoying zero tariffs under Most Favored Nation treatment, and 77% of U.S. products entering South Africa tariff-free [1] Group 2 - The proposed tariffs could severely impact South Africa's agriculture and steel industries, potentially affecting downstream manufacturing and leading to economic and employment losses [2] - South Africa is the second-largest bilateral trade partner of the U.S., with significant exports including minerals, automotive parts, and agricultural products [2] Group 3 - As of the latest report, South Africa's 10-year government bond yield rose by 46 basis points to 9.87%, indicating investor concerns over escalating trade tensions [3]

Core Insights - China's total import and export value reached 17.94 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, with an acceleration of 0.1 percentage points compared to the first four months [2] - The growth in foreign trade demonstrates resilience amid complex global conditions, with significant contributions from events like the Consumer Expo and Canton Fair, which saw record participation and order intentions [2] - The diversification of trade partners is evident, with exports in May reaching 2.28 trillion yuan, marking a 6.3% increase, particularly strong growth observed in exports to ASEAN, EU, Africa, and Central Asian countries [3] Trade Performance - The cumulative growth rate of foreign trade has shown a notable recovery, with a decrease of 1.2% in the first two months, followed by a slight increase of 1.3% in the first quarter [3] - Despite uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies, the overall growth rate for the first four months remained positive at 2.4% [3] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is emerging as a new growth driver, with significant shipment volumes expected from the Hangzhou cross-border e-commerce pilot zone [3] Policy Support - Various local governments are implementing detailed measures to stabilize foreign trade, such as Shenzhen's "Financial Stability for Foreign Trade" initiatives and Tianjin's establishment of a one-stop service base for enterprises [4] - These measures are anticipated to further support the steady growth of China's foreign trade and contribute to the overall stability of the economy [4]