Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a narrow - range oscillation pattern this week, and the market will maintain an interval oscillation pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of high - temperature weather in cotton - producing areas on new cotton output and changes in the macro - policy aspect [3][36] - The cotton textile industry is facing dual pressures of insufficient demand and high costs, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [11][34] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Basic Data of Domestic and Foreign Cotton Markets - **One - week Data Overview**: As of June 20, the CRB commodity price index rose to 312.53 points, a 0.85% increase from June 13. The ICE cotton futures main contract in December decreased by 1.14 cents/pound, a 1.68% decline. The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 09 closed at 13,495 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from June 13, with a cumulative decrease of 0.8 million lots in positions to 5.25 million lots [2][10][35] - **Demand - side Situation**: The cotton yarn futures market showed a high - level oscillation pattern. The downstream orders were weak, and enterprises generally adopted a de - inventory strategy. The market operating rate remained low, and small and medium - sized textile enterprises faced great operating pressure [11][34] Part 2: Domestic Market Basic Situation - **Textile Mainstream Raw Material Trends**: On June 20, the raw material price center rose compared with June 13, while the yarn price center showed mixed changes, and the foreign yarn price remained unchanged. The RMB - denominated foreign yarn price increased [15][18][22] - **Domestic Cotton Spot and Futures Prices vs. International Cotton Price Index (Tax - included)**: On June 20, the difference between the domestic cotton spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty expanded, while the difference between Zhengzhou cotton and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty narrowed [23] - **Domestic and Foreign Cotton and Yarn Price Differences**: On June 20, the domestic - foreign yarn price difference expanded, and the difference between Zhengzhou cotton and ICE cotton was 2,967 yuan/ton (without considering the trade premium) [24][27] Part 3: Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts**: As of June 20, the total of Zhengzhou cotton registered warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 466,000 tons, a decrease from June 13 [29] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Futures - Spot Price Difference Analysis**: On June 20, the futures - spot price difference of Zhengzhou cotton expanded compared with June 13 [31] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Price Analysis**: Macroeconomically, the Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged, and China's economy continued to recover. In terms of supply, the cotton growth in Xinjiang was good, but attention should be paid to the impact of high - temperature weather. In terms of demand, it was in the off - season, and the industry faced dual pressures. Technically, the technical indicators were strong [32][33][38] Part 4: International Market Analysis - **US Cotton Export Dynamics**: From June 6 - 12, the net signing of US 2024/25 annual upland cotton increased by 38% compared with the previous week. The net signing of Pima cotton was - 431 tons. New - year contracts were also signed. As of June 10, the CFTC fund's net long position decreased by 5,999 lots compared with the previous week [41][43] - **ICE Cotton Futures Analysis**: On June 20, the ICE cotton futures main contract in December decreased by 1.14 cents/pound compared with June 13, and the technical indicators were weak [44] Part 5: Operation Suggestions - The Zhengzhou cotton price should be treated with an oscillatory view. Downstream textile enterprises can purchase raw materials in batches according to orders and consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of purchasing raw cotton [46]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Weakening Consumption, Lackluster Rebound of Zhengzhou Cotton - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report" and was released on June 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Domestically, this week Zhengzhou cotton oscillated within a narrow range, and the market trend was indecisive. The basis in Xinjiang continued to strengthen, with a supply shortage in some areas. Consumption pressure remained high, with a decline in the operating rates of textile and weaving enterprises, an accumulation of finished - product inventories, and a lack of new orders. The impact of high - temperature forecasts in southern Xinjiang on cotton growth was expected to be limited. Internationally, in the short term, cotton prices were affected by oil price fluctuations due to the international situation. The war situation would continue to disrupt the market. Fundamentally, the drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas was at the five - year average level and showed a slight downward trend weekly. Precipitation increased recently, and the drought index in most areas dropped to 0. There were few catalysts for U.S. cotton. China's procurement of U.S. cotton was at a standstill. Overall, there were no major fundamental contradictions, and prices might fluctuate following macro - events [52] Group 4: Cotton Market Analysis Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated within a narrow range this week, with a weekly increase of 0.04%. ICE cotton futures weakened, with a weekly decline of 1.81% [11] Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 59 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 37 yuan/ton [15] Cotton Import Situation - In May, 40,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [17] Cotton Inventory Situation - In May, the commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 941,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55,200 tons [26] Downstream Inventory Situation - In May, the yarn inventory was 22.34 days, a year - on - year decrease of 5.19 days. The grey fabric inventory was 32.89 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.94 days [31] Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices remained stable. The prices of OE 10s, Combed 32s, and Combed 40s cotton yarns were the same as last week [34] Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 161. There were 10,607 warehouse receipts and 308 valid forecasts, totaling 10,915 [38] U.S. Cotton Export Situation - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of June 5, the net sales of U.S. upland cotton for the current market year increased by 60,200 bales, and the net sales for the next market year were 36,100 bales [41] U.S. Weather Situation - The drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas and Texas was at the five - year average level and showed a slight downward trend weekly. Recently, precipitation increased in the main producing areas, and the drought index in most areas except Texas and Arizona dropped to 0 [52] Group 5: Market Outlook - Domestically, the market was in a stalemate, with supply shortages in some areas and high consumption pressure. The impact of high - temperature forecasts on cotton growth needed further monitoring. Internationally, the market was affected by the international situation and war. Fundamentally, U.S. cotton lacked catalysts, and China's procurement was at a standstill. Overall, prices might fluctuate with macro - events [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) oscillated and then rebounded slightly this week, influenced by external markets. The basis in Xinjiang strengthened, and textile enterprises had small profits, strongly supporting the spot market. However, consumption was weak, with no rush - to - export situation in the downstream. The operating rates of textile and weaving enterprises declined significantly, and the inventory of grey cloth costs continued to rise. The market lacked continuous upward momentum but was supported by low inventory and a strong Xinjiang basis, so the downward space was limited. In the short term, Zhengmian may remain in an oscillatory state [53]. - Internationally, the market generally lacked drivers and maintained an oscillatory trend. As of June 1st, the U.S. cotton planting rate was 66%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and lower than the five - year average of 69%. The U.S. cotton planting progress was still behind, but the lag had narrowed. Some cotton had started to bud, and the early excellent - good rate was lower year - on - year. U.S. cotton export data improved, with 316,100 bales shipped in the week ending May 29th, up 15% from the previous week and 1% from the four - week average. Overall, the short - term price space for cotton was limited [53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) cotton futures prices oscillated this week, with a weekly increase of 0.64%. ICE cotton futures prices had a slight oscillation, with a weekly increase of 0.38% [10]. 3.1.2 Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price indices showed mixed trends. The 3128 index increased by 14 yuan/ton compared to last week, while the 2129 index decreased by 17 yuan/ton [14]. 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In April, 60,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 280,000 tons [17]. 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory Situation - In April, the commercial cotton inventory was 4.1526 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 183,300 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 954,200 tons, a year - on - year increase [26]. 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory Situation - In April, the yarn inventory was 20.8 days, a year - on - year decrease of 2.88 days. The grey cloth inventory was 30.17 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.34 days [30]. 3.1.6 Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices declined. The price of 10 - count rotor - spun cotton yarn decreased by 80 yuan/ton compared to last week, the price of 32 - count carded cotton yarn decreased by 170 yuan/ton, and the price of 40 - count combed cotton yarn remained unchanged [35]. 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 229. There were 10,939 warehouse receipts and 369 valid forecasts, totaling 11,308 [39]. 3.1.8 U.S. Cotton Export Situation - As of May 29th, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the current year increased by 109,800 bales, and the net export sales in the next year were 39,000 bales [42][47]. 3.1.9 U.S. Weather Situation - Not elaborated in terms of its impact on the market in the provided content, only the data source is given [52]. 3.2后市展望 (Market Outlook) - The domestic market lacks continuous upward momentum but has limited downward space due to low inventory and a strong Xinjiang basis. Short - term Zhengmian may remain in an oscillatory state. The international market also lacks drivers and maintains an oscillatory trend, with the U.S. cotton planting progress still behind but the lag narrowing and export data improving [53].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Macro Changes Desensitized, Zhengzhou Cotton Turns to Fluctuation - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report" [2] - Report Date: April 20, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Analysis Futures Prices - Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fell slightly this week, with a weekly decline of 0.66%. ICE cotton futures turned to a fluctuating trend, with a weekly increase of 0.15% [8] Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index continued to decline. The 3128 index dropped by 59 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index decreased by 66 yuan/ton [12] Import Situation - In March, 70,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year-on-year increase of 30,000 tons [17] Inventory Situation - In March, the commercial cotton inventory was 4.8396 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19,800 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 959,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 59,600 tons [22] Downstream Inventory - In March, the yarn inventory was 19.15 days, a year-on-year decrease of 4 days. The grey fabric inventory was 28.7 days, a year-on-year increase of 0.05 days [27] Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices dropped significantly. The price of rotor-spun 10-count cotton yarn decreased by 20 yuan/ton compared to last week, the price of carded 32-count cotton yarn fell by 80 yuan/ton, and the price of combed 40-count cotton yarn declined by 30 yuan/ton [32] Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 84. The number of warehouse receipts was 9,833, and the valid forecasts were 2,828, totaling 12,661 [36] US Cotton Exports - As of April 10, according to the USDA weekly export sales report, the net sales of US upland cotton for the current year increased by 202,000 bales, and the net sales for the next year were 66,000 bales [40][41] US Weather - The drought index in the main cotton-producing areas of the US remained basically the same month-on-month, with a slight increase in drought in Texas [45] Group 3: Core Views - Domestic market: This week, the Zhengzhou cotton market turned to a slight fluctuation and became desensitized to macro events. The market lacks upward momentum, but there is strong support at the 12,000 yuan/ton level. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate and wait for new catalysts [45] - International market: The bottom support for US cotton is emerging. However, there is currently a lack of strong factors to drive it higher. Continued attention should be paid to macro changes [45]