Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall analysis of cotton is neutral, with multiple factors showing both positive and negative signals. The US Department of Agriculture's August report significantly lowered cotton production, which is bullish. The Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract should focus on the battle at the 14,000 mark in the short - term. If it can stand above 14,000, there is upward momentum; otherwise, the future trend will be weak [4]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton production, consumption, and inventory. The USDA's August report shows a production of 2539.2 million tons and consumption of 2568.8 million tons, with an ending inventory of 1609.3 million tons. The rural department's July 2025/26 forecast shows a production of 625 million tons, import of 140 million tons, consumption of 740 million tons, and ending inventory of 823 million tons. Overall, it is considered neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,214, with a basis of 1059 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast of ending inventory is 823 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is bullish, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The US Department of Agriculture's August report significantly lowered cotton production, which is bullish. The short - term focus of the Zhengzhou Cotton 01 contract is on the 14,000 mark [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Forecast**: In August, the total global cotton production is 2539.2 million tons (a decrease of 39.1 million tons from July), consumption is 2568.8 million tons (a decrease of 3 million tons from July), and ending inventory is 1609.3 million tons (a decrease of 74.2 million tons from July) [10]. - **ICAC Global Forecast**: For the 2025/26 period, global production is 2590 million tons (an increase of 40 million tons or 1.6% year - on - year), consumption is 2560 million tons (basically flat), ending inventory is 1710 million tons (an increase of 26 million tons or 1.6% year - on - year), and global trade volume is 970 million tons (an increase of 36 million tons or 3.9% year - on - year) [12]. - **Chinese Ministry of Agriculture Forecast**: In July 2025/26, production is 625 million tons, import is 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and ending inventory is 823 million tons [4]. - **Other Data**: In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In June, China's cotton imports were 3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%; cotton yarn imports were 11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [4]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is bullish [4].

Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] Key Points 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton futures) has been fluctuating and adjusting. The latest price index of 328-grade cotton is 15,214 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of 2024/25 Xinjiang Kashi lint 3129/29B/impurity within 3.5 is still in the range of CF09+1050 - 1200, but the quantity is scarce, and most quotes are above CF09+1200. The basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine-picked 4129/29B/impurity within 3.5 is mostly above CF09+1450, with a small amount lower than this price, all for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7]. - The pure cotton yarn market has slightly improved as the peak season approaches. Low-price resources have decreased, and the trading center has slightly increased, but market operations remain cautious. Downstream fabric mills and traders have not made large-scale restocking actions. The all-cotton grey fabric market has shown little improvement, with only partial sales slightly better. Currently, fabric mills still have few orders, and the inquiry and trading situation in the domestic market has not improved significantly, while only a small number of export orders have been placed [7]. - According to the US Department of Agriculture's Tuesday supply and demand report, due to a significant reduction in the planting area, the US cotton production and ending stocks are far lower than market expectations, and bullish sentiment has been quickly released. Without weather speculation, the market is closely watching the subsequent export sales data for the 2025/26 season to verify the actual demand intensity after the USDA's production cut. In the short term, the external market is difficult to break out of the range-bound pattern [8]. - In the domestic market, the China Cotton Association's survey of cotton growth and expected production in July shows that the total production is expected to be 6.895 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. There are still some differences in the expected opening price of new cotton. Ginners expect it to be 6 yuan/kg or lower, while farmers mostly expect it to be around 6.5 yuan/kg. Some post-point pricing resources of new cotton have started pre - sales, with the basis of 41 double 29 - grade resources around 850 - 1000 yuan/ton. The downstream market has shown a marginal improvement. There has been a slight increase in sample orders for grey fabrics, and the sales of cotton yarn have also improved slightly after the cotton price stabilized. The finished product inventory has stopped accumulating, and the operating rate has temporarily stabilized. With the weakening of external market support, Zhengzhou cotton is fluctuating and adjusting. Attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high resistance level [8]. 2. Industry News - In July 2025, the China Cotton Association surveyed the cotton growth situation and expected production. The national cotton planting area is 44.823 million mu, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The expected yield per mu is 153.8 kg, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The total production is expected to be 6.895 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the Zhengzhou cotton futures spreads (CF1 - 5, CF5 - 9, CF9 - 1), China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and exchange rate data (USD/CNY, USD/INR) [16][18][30]

Report Title - New Crop's High-Yield Expectation Limits the Increase of Cotton Futures Price [1] Core View - The new crop's high-yield expectation restricts the increase of cotton futures prices. The cotton market shows a complex situation with different trends in various aspects such as futures prices, spot trading, and market demand [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Cotton Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: CF2601 closed at 14,130 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.07% and a night - session closing price of 14,120 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% change; CY2511 closed at 20,195 yuan/ton with a 0.90% daily increase and a night - session closing price of 20,185 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% change; ICE Cotton 12 closed at 67.7 cents/pound with a - 1.08% daily change [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 645,549 lots, an increase of 329,664 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 784,336 lots, an increase of 34,927 lots; the trading volume of CY2511 was 10,265 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 19,810 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 8,006, a decrease of 81, and the effective forecast was 281, a decrease of 1; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 74, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 0, with an increase of 74 [2] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,142 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day with a 0.66% increase; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase; the 3128B index was 15,188 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase; the international cotton index M was 75.93 cents/pound, an increase of 2 cents/pound with a 2.21% increase [2] - **Price Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton; the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macro and Industry News Domestic Cotton Spot Situation - The spot trading of cotton slightly improved, but the improvement was limited. Spinning mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases, and the spot basis was generally stable. Different regions had different basis ranges for cotton sales [2][3] Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises' Situation - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market slightly improved, with increased sales. Spinning mills raised their quotes, and the price center of cotton yarn slightly increased. The all - cotton grey fabric market was partially better, but the overall improvement was limited, with only small orders being traded. Downstream inquiries and orders recovered moderately. Dyeing mills' orders were average, and some expected an improvement in September orders. The loom factory's operating rate recovered to a limited extent, and the inventory level remained high but showed a downward trend [2][3] US Cotton Situation - The ICE cotton futures slightly declined yesterday. After two consecutive days of increases, ICE cotton had a technical adjustment. However, the significant downward adjustment of the 2025/26 US cotton production forecast in the USDA's August supply - demand report is expected to support the ICE cotton futures [2][4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral situation. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [6]

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 8 月 13 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1：行情回顾 海外市场，下一年度新棉签约进度同比偏慢，CFTC 基金净多持仓维持低位运 行，外盘维持宽幅区间震荡重心略有下移，关注 8 月 USDA 供需报告指引。国内市 场，距离新花上市还有 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Cotton and Cotton Yarn Weekly Report 20250808: New Cotton Growth Generally Good, Focus on Peak Season Demand Boost" [1][2][8] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Cotton is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the price center is expected to decline later. The short - term macro situation has uncertainties, demand expectations are weak, new cotton planting area may continue to increase, and structural supply has attracted market attention, forming a phased support. In the medium and long term, the global cotton supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose, domestic production may remain high, demand expectations are poor, and the supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve. Therefore, the rebound space of cotton is limited, the overall market is still under pressure, and the operation suggestion is to short after the rebound [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Supply and Demand - **Supply - demand Balance**: From 2021/22, due to the macro - economic downturn and the impact of the epidemic, cotton consumption was frustrated, but production remained at a relatively high level, and domestic cotton shifted from destocking to stockpiling with a downward price center. In 2024/25, production was at a high level, imports decreased, and demand was relatively stable, with sufficient supply. In 2025/26, production is expected to be good, but demand is still under pressure due to macro and policy disturbances, and the supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose. According to the July 2025 cotton information network data, in 2025/26, cotton production is expected to be at a high level, consumption is basically stable, imports have decreased significantly, and the ending inventory has decreased [12][13] - **New Cotton Growth**: Cotton is usually sown in May and harvested in mid - September. In 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the national output reached about 685 million tons, a 13.8% increase from the previous year. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, and under normal climate conditions, the new - season output is expected to be high, and currently, the new cotton growth is generally good, with the whole Xinjiang cotton entering the peak flowering and boll - setting stage [19] - **Inventory Situation**: In the 2023/24 season, cotton supply was sufficient with a high carry - over inventory. Currently, it is in the destocking period, with significant destocking of commercial inventory. The market is concerned about the possible short - term structural supply shortage, but the industrial inventory remains at a high level, and the overall industrial and commercial inventory is still high. As of the end of June, the commercial inventory was 282.98 million tons, a decrease of 62.89 million tons from the previous month, and the industrial inventory was 90.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.81 million tons from the previous month [23][24] - **Import Situation**: The issue of Xinjiang cotton has affected the domestic cotton - using pattern. In 2024, the issuance of sliding - duty quotas was less than expected, and cotton imports showed a downward trend. Recently, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has widened, and attention should be paid to cotton imports. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were 30,000 tons, a 25% decrease from the previous month and an 82.1% decrease from the same period last year. In 2025, the cumulative cotton imports were 460,000 tons, a 74.3% decrease year - on - year [34][43] - **Downstream Demand**: Overseas interest - rate cuts and US tariff policies are uncertain, and the Xinjiang cotton issue remains unresolved, so the foreign trade situation is expected to be severe. Although domestic policies are boosting the economy, the demand recovery remains to be seen. Recently, the sales of downstream yarns in some areas have improved, and grey - cloth orders have increased, but overall orders are still insufficient, the operating load is low, and finished - product inventory has increased. In June 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles were 127.5 billion yuan, a 1.9% increase year - on - year and month - on - month. From January to June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 13.078 billion US dollars, a 0.76% increase year - on - year [47][52] Policy - Reserve Rotation - The state adjusts the cotton market supply and demand through policies such as state - reserve cotton rotation to stabilize cotton prices. In 2023, the state - reserve cotton rotation out started on July 31 and ended on November 14, effectively supplementing market supply and ensuring the stable operation of the cotton market. The planned rotation out was 1.2121 million tons, the actual transaction was 0.8639 million tons, the transaction rate was 71.27%, and the average transaction price was 17,430.49 yuan/ton [55][57] Global Supply and Demand - **Overall Situation**: In the 2024/25 season, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption has recovered significantly, and the stock - to - use ratio has increased slightly. In the 2025/26 season, global production is expected to decrease slightly, demand will recover, and the ending inventory will continue to increase. The new cotton in the Southern Hemisphere is in the growth and harvest period with an optimistic production outlook, while the major producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere are in the sowing and growth period. The weather in the US cotton - producing areas is basically normal, and the sowing in India is behind schedule compared with the same period last year [66] - **Major Countries' Situations** - **United States**: In the 2024/25 season, the US cotton planting area increased, the harvest area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and production increased. In the 2025/26 season, the planting area decreased, the harvest area remained high, the yield per unit is expected to decrease, and production is expected to recover. US textile and clothing demand has recovered, but subsequent demand remains to be tracked. Last week, US cotton contract signings declined, and shipments increased [72] - **Brazil**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB), the total cotton production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is expected to increase to 3.938 million tons, a 7.2% increase year - on - year [72] - **India**: As of July 18, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 10.587 million hectares, 256,000 hectares lower than the same period last year [72] Spread and Basis - The report provides data and trends on cotton spreads (such as 1 - 5 spread, 9 - 1 spread, 5 - 9 spread) and basis (such as cotton 01 basis, 05 basis, 09 basis) [79][84]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The cotton market is experiencing a narrow - range oscillation. The domestic cotton spot trading is increasingly sluggish with stable basis, the cotton yarn market has minor changes, and the cotton fabric market has limited improvement in production and sales with high inventory. The ICE cotton futures declined due to the rising dollar and weak new - crop exports [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents a. Cotton Fundamental Data - **Futures**: For CF2601, the yesterday's closing price was 13,835 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.11%, and the night - session closing price was 13,825 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%. The trading volume was 196,806 lots, a decrease of 52,459 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 748,215 lots, a decrease of 2,804 lots. For CY2511, the yesterday's closing price was 19,705 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.03%, and the night - session closing price was 19,715 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.05%. The trading volume was 6,245 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 15,633 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The ICE cotton futures (December contract) closed at 66.36 cents/pound, a decline of 0.84% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 8,329, a decrease of 135 compared to the previous day, with 348 valid forecasts (no change). The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 88 (no change), and the valid forecasts increased by 88 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,687 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The prices in Shandong and Hebei increased by 20 yuan/ton and 18 yuan/ton respectively. The 3128B index was 15,191 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan/ton. The international cotton index M was 74.39 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.36%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the arrival price was 22,128 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spreads**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: According to TTEB, the domestic cotton spot trading is increasingly sluggish, and the spot basis is generally stable. Different regions have different sales basis levels [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market has minor changes. The knitting market in Guangdong has slightly improved, while the weaving market remains dull. The overall market feedback is average, and the cotton yarn prices are mainly stable. The cotton fabric market is cautious, with some improvement in orders for some fabric mills, but the overall order situation has not improved significantly. It is expected that the fabric mills' sales will gradually accelerate in August, and inventory will be digested, but currently, the increase in orders is limited, and the production and sales improvement is limited with high inventory [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined again yesterday due to the rising dollar and weak new - crop exports [3]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6].

Group 1 - Recent cotton futures prices have experienced a rise and subsequent decline, with no significant improvement in the fundamental market conditions, leading to intense long-short market battles [1] - Cotton consumption averaged around 750,000 tons per month from March to May, with June consumption at 697,000 tons and 320,000 tons in the first half of July, indicating that the first half of the year exceeded expectations [1] - The strong cotton consumption during the "golden three silver four" months is attributed to good export data and increasing production capacity in Xinjiang, which is expected to reach 30 million spindles by 2025, creating a localized tight supply situation [1] Group 2 - The cotton spinning mills' operating rate has decreased to 47.8% as of July 25, down to last year's levels, while the overall weaving mills' operating rate is at 44.4%, also lower than the previous year [1] - Raw material inventory for spinning mills is at 30.8 days, with finished goods inventory at 30.1 days, indicating a slowdown in accumulation [1] - Weaving mills have a cotton yarn inventory of 5.4 days, with a slight replenishment, while the finished goods inventory for cotton fabric is at 37.2 days, showing significant accumulation, particularly in the fabric segment, leading to a lack of confidence in the market outlook [1] Group 3 - There is a divergence in market discussions regarding the ability of the 2509 contract bulls to take delivery, with no significant cancellation of warehouse receipts observed, but an increase in effective forecasts [2] - The 2509 contract's delivery logic suggests that the market may revert to a backwardation state, with expectations of a return to near parity levels [2] - The market anticipates a bumper crop of 7.2 million tons for the new season, with favorable planting conditions and expectations of early new cotton sales, although high basis levels complicate next year's basis trading [2] Group 4 - The withdrawal of bulls from the 09 contract has confirmed the lack of cost-effectiveness in taking delivery, while the validation of the 9-1 price spread remains ongoing [3] - As September approaches, market focus will shift to new cotton negotiations, with potential for localized rush buying [3]

Core Viewpoint - Cotton prices are experiencing fluctuations, with mixed growth conditions for U.S. cotton, indicating potential supply and demand challenges in the market [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The closing price for cotton futures (contract 2509) was 13,655 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or -0.15% from the previous day [1] - The spot price for 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,081 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a national average price of 15,169 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: U.S. Cotton Growth Conditions - As of August 3, the blooming rate of U.S. cotton in 15 major planting states was 87%, which is 3 percentage points slower than the same period last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five-year average [1] - The setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five-year average [1] - The quality rate was 55%, which is 10 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five-year average [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Internationally, the supply side is minimally affected by weather this year, with a potential oversupply in the global cotton market for the 2025/26 season [1] - U.S. cotton planting area exceeded expectations, and drought conditions have improved, but new export contracts are weak, leading to a lack of upward momentum in international cotton prices [1] - Domestically, cotton commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, with low import volumes expected in the third quarter and tight inventory before the new cotton harvest [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The good growth conditions for new cotton and strong production expectations may pressure cotton prices in the fourth quarter, with uncertain demand prospects for the second half of the year [1] - The strategy suggests that due to ample global cotton supply in the new year and a lack of upward drivers in the industry, cotton prices may face short-term pressure and fluctuations [1]

Industry - The industry is cotton [1] Date - The report date is August 6, 2025 [2] Researchers - Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton reduced positions, changed contracts, and fluctuated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 15,169 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream low basis for 2024/25 Beijiang Corps machine - picked 4129/29B/impurity within 3.5 was in the range of CF09 + 1400 - 1500, and most sales bases were above CF09 + 1500, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream sales basis for 2024/25 north and south Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B/impurity within 3.5 was around CF09 + 1300 - 1500, and the Corps' goods were quoted around 1550 - 1750 for self - pick - up in the inland [7] - The price of the pure cotton yarn market continued to decline, with a decline of about 300 yuan/ton. Many inland spinning enterprises still limited production. Due to the loss of cotton yarn, the price - concession efforts were not large, and the decline of Xinjiang spinning enterprises was relatively larger. The spot market transaction of all - cotton grey cloth continued to be insufficient. The sample orders of weaving factories were worse than the same period of previous years. Currently, there were few actual orders, mostly just for necessary needs. It was expected that the factory production would continue to be sluggish in the first ten days of August, and weaving factories would still produce conventional varieties, and it was expected to improve in the middle of the month [7] - Internationally, as of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period last year), the budding rate was 87% (90% in the same period last year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (59% in the same period last year), and the boll - opening rate was 5% (7% in the same period last year). The growth of U.S. cotton was stable but the progress was still slightly slow, and the outer market maintained range - bound fluctuations. Domestically, the actual sown area of this year increased year - on - year. Xinjiang cotton was in the full - bloom stage, and there was still an expectation of a bumper harvest. The downstream of the industry was still weak. The inventory of cotton yarn products accumulated again, and the operating rate of inland spinning enterprises decreased. After the short - term pessimistic sentiment was released, the market fluctuated and stabilized. The near - month contracts were approaching delivery, and the expectation of new cotton listing was advanced, so the overall market was under pressure [8] Industry News - The Pakistani government announced that since July 1, 2025, it would impose an 18% tariff on imported cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton cloth, and implement a new tax policy on e - commerce platforms, levying an 18% sales tax and a 5% service tax respectively [9] - According to USDA, as of the week ending August 3, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was 55% (the same as the previous week and 45% in the same period last year), the boll - setting rate was 55% (44% in the previous week and 59% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 58%), the full - boll rate was 5% (7% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 6%), and the budding rate was 87% (80% in the previous week, 90% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 89%) [9] Data Overview - The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures, including various data on cotton price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, inventories, and exchange rates [7][8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillation", indicating that the short - term demand is average and the supply is in a loose pattern, and the market may fluctuate within a range [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the cotton market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that the supply is bearish as the shortage of old - crop inventory is gradually priced in while the weak reality of new - crop bumper harvest is not. The demand is neutral due to over - capacity in spinning and high operating rates. The overall view is that the market will oscillate in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. The shortage of old - crop inventory is gradually priced in, and the weak reality of new - crop bumper harvest is not yet priced in [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. Spinning over - capacity and high operating rates lead to strong industrial demand for cotton [3] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The national commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the national industrial inventory remains at a high level [3] - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. This week, the basis of Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, with the basis of Xinjiang Shuang 28 spot at 1000 - 1200. The spread between September and January contracts of Zhengzhou cotton strengthened continuously this week [3] - **Profit**: Bearish. Spinning in Xinjiang has a slight loss, and spinning in the inland has a serious loss. The spread between yarn and cotton prices is running at a low level [3] - **Valuation**: Neutral. The current absolute price is at a neutral level in the past four years [3] - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for supporting the long - term demand for domestic cotton, which is bullish for far - month contracts. Internationally, Sino - US trade negotiations are in a short - term deadlock, and the tariff exemption period is extended again, which is bearish in terms of sentiment [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillation. Short - term demand is average, and supply is in a loose pattern, so the market may fluctuate within a range [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Lightly short the CF01 contract; Arbitrage: Reverse spread between CF1 - 5 contracts [3] 3.2 Cotton Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Upstream Planting - **Area Forecast**: The forecast shows an increase in cotton - planting area. The first survey in 2025 shows that the national cotton - planting area is expected to be 4159.9 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 1.88%, and the area in Xinjiang is expected to be 3678.8 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 3.18% [5][8][9] - **Yield per Unit Area**: The report provides historical data on cotton yield per unit area in the whole country and Xinjiang from 2013 to 2025. For example, in 2025, the national yield per unit area is expected to be 149.9 kg/mu, and that in Xinjiang is expected to be 158.5 kg/mu [10] 3.2.2 Mid - stream Situation - **Inventory**: There is inventory accumulation of finished products. The raw material and finished - product inventories of yarn mills and weaving mills are presented in the form of historical data of multiple years [18][19] - **Factory Load**: The operating rate is declining. The loads of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills are shown in historical data of multiple years [25][26] - **Yarn Mill Profit**: There are losses. The immediate spinning profit and the spot spread between yarn and cotton are presented in historical data of multiple years [29][30] 3.2.3 Downstream Situation - **Inventory**: At a seasonal high. The inventories and finished - product inventories of textile and clothing enterprises above designated size are presented in historical data of multiple years [32][33] 3.2.4 Import and Export Situation - **Domestic Import**: The report shows historical data on the monthly and cumulative imports of domestic cotton and cotton yarn from 2018 to 2025 [37] - **US Cotton Export** - **Overall**: The signing volume is at the lowest in recent years, and the shipment is seasonally increasing [39] - **To China**: Significantly decreased year - on - year, at a low level in the same period [48] - **To Pakistan**: Significantly increased year - on - year, at a high level in the same period [54] - **To Vietnam**: The signing and shipment volumes have significantly increased year - on - year [60] - **To Bangladesh**: The shipment volume has decreased year - on - year [67] 3.3 Cotton Capital - related Data - **Zhengzhou Cotton Basis**: Oscillating at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton 09 and 01 contracts is presented in historical data of multiple years [73][74] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Spread**: The spreads between Zhengzhou cotton 09 - 01 and 01 - 05 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [77] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Position**: The position of the 09 contract has declined rapidly. The positions of Zhengzhou cotton 09 and 01 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [79][80] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipt**: The virtual - to - real ratio of the 09 contract has declined rapidly. The total number of warehouse receipts and forecasts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the 09 contract are presented in historical data of multiple years [84][85] - **Management Fund's Net Long Position in US Cotton Futures**: The net long positions and the proportion of long positions of management funds in US cotton futures and options are presented in historical data of multiple years [91][92] - **US Cotton Spread**: In a deep contango state. The spreads between US cotton 05 - 07 and 07 - 12 contracts are presented in historical data of multiple years [95][96]