Group 1: Report Title and General Information - Report title: Cotton Weekly Report: Fast De - stocking, Cotton Prices Slightly Bullish in Fluctuation [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Futures practice certificate number: F3013727 [1] - Consulting practice certificate number: Z0014425 [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is influenced by both macro - factors and fundamentals. Considering potential increased purchases from countries like Vietnam, the US cotton price is expected to be slightly bullish in fluctuation. The Zhengzhou cotton price also has the potential to be slightly bullish in fluctuation if the current de - stocking speed is maintained [7][14][23] Group 3: International Market Analysis US Cotton Market - The US cotton market is mainly affected by macro - factors. With potential increased purchases from countries like Vietnam, the price is expected to be slightly bullish in fluctuation [7] - As of June 8, the planting rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - planting states in the US was 76%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 4 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The squaring rate was 12%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and the same as the five - year average. The good - to - excellent rate was 49%, 7 percentage points lower than last year and 1 percentage point lower than the five - year average [7] - As of the week ending June 5, the weekly signing volume of 2024/25 US upland cotton was 1.36 million tons, a 45% week - on - week decrease and a 51% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 0.82 million tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2024/25 US upland cotton was 5.36 million tons, a 25% week - on - week decrease and a 19% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [7] - As of June 6, the number of un - priced contracts of the ON - CALL 2507 contract held by sellers decreased by 1511 to 12276, a decrease of 30,000 tons from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of the 24/25 annual sellers decreased by 1511 to 12276, equivalent to 280,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of ICE sellers increased to 51692, equivalent to 1.17 million tons, an increase of 152 from last week [7] Global Cotton Situation - According to the latest USDA June data, the global cotton production in 25/26 was revised down by 178,000 tons to 25.47 million tons, with China's production increasing by 218,000 tons, India's decreasing by 217,000 tons, and the US's decreasing by 109,000 tons to 3.048 million tons. The total consumption was revised down by 70,000 tons to 25.638 million tons, with India's consumption decreasing by 109,000 tons to 555,200 tons. The global ending inventory in June decreased by 344,000 tons to 16.721 million tons, with the US's ending inventory decreasing by 196,000 tons [7] Group 4: Domestic Market Analysis Supply Side - As of May, the national commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.4587 million tons, at a relatively low level compared to historical data. As of June 6, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 3.2092 million tons, a decrease of 128,700 tons (3.86%) from last week. The inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 108,200 tons (4.49%) and that in inland areas decreased by 4,600 tons (1.02%) [14] Demand Side - It is currently the off - season for market consumption. As of the end of May, the yarn inventory days in China were 22.34, and the grey fabric inventory was 32.89, both at relatively low levels compared to historical data. As of June 12, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 72.2%, a 2.43% decrease from the previous period. The cotton sales situation is relatively fast. As of June 5, the national new cotton sales rate was 88.2%, with a cumulative sales volume of 5.889 million tons, an increase of 163,000 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 729,400 tons compared to the four - year average [14] Overall Situation - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price is affected by macro - factors such as Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries, which bring uncertainties. From the fundamental perspective, if the current de - stocking speed is maintained, the cotton price may be slightly bullish in fluctuation [14] Group 5: Option Strategies - On June 12, 2025, relevant data of several cotton option contracts are provided, including the option contract name, underlying contract price, closing price, price change rate, implied volatility (IV), Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, theoretical leverage, and actual leverage [19] - The 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton was 10.4973. The position PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 0.9529, and the trading volume PCR was 0.6548. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. The option strategy is to wait and see [21] Group 6: Futures Trading Strategies - The trading logic is similar to the analysis of the Zhengzhou cotton price. The price is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals. The strategies are as follows: for single - sided trading, the US cotton price is expected to be slightly bullish in fluctuation, and the Zhengzhou cotton price is expected to be bullish in fluctuation; for arbitrage and options, the strategy is to wait and see [23] Group 7: Weekly Data Tracking - The report presents data on the price difference between domestic and international cotton, the price difference between September and January contracts, the operating load of pure - cotton spinning mills and full - cotton grey fabric mills, yarn and grey fabric inventory days, cotton inventory (including commercial, industrial, and reserve inventories), and the basis of cotton futures and spot [25][26][28]

Report Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation before new weather problems occur in US cotton - producing areas or significant changes happen to US trade agreements. The USDA's June supply - demand report provides support, but it still lacks upward drivers due to uncertain US tariff policies and good weather for new US cotton crops [18]. - Domestic cotton futures are in a stage with unclear fundamental drivers, and their trends follow the overall financial market sentiment. Concerns about tightening domestic cotton inventories support spot prices and basis, but the deteriorating downstream business restricts the upward momentum of cotton futures. It is necessary to monitor whether the inventory reduction speed slows down. Currently, cotton futures are expected to be in an oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the weather in Xinjiang and external market impacts [1][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data | Futures | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Change % | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - continuous | 68.15 | 68.54 | 67.02 | 67.90 | - 0.24 | - 0.35 | 158748 | 26765 | 147821 | 36029 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous | 13355 | 13600 | 13345 | 13495 | 135 | 1.01 | 1014870 | 336485 | 532642 | 1992 | | Cotton Yarn Main - continuous | 19615 | 19860 | 19605 | 19715 | 85 | 0.43 | 33060 | 13379 | 19858 | 7266 | [4] 2. Fundamentals 2.1 International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton Fluctuation**: ICE cotton maintained an oscillatory trend this week. In the first half - week, it declined due to good weather in US cotton - producing areas and concerns about US cotton export prospects. After the USDA released its monthly supply - demand report on Thursday, it rebounded as the USDA raised the export forecast for the 2024/25 US cotton season and lowered the production and inventory forecasts for the 2025/26 season [1][4]. - **USDA June Supply - Demand Report**: - **US Cotton Balance Sheet**: The USDA raised the 2024/25 US cotton export by 400,000 bales to 11.5 million bales, causing the ending inventory in 2024/25 to drop by 400,000 bales to 4.4 million bales. It also cut the 2025/26 US cotton production by 500,000 bales to 14 million bales, leading to a 900,000 - bale decrease in ending inventory to 4.3 million bales [5]. - **Global Cotton Balance Sheet**: The USDA cut the 2024/25 global ending cotton inventory by 1.11 million bales, mainly due to reduced production in India and Central Asia. It also cut the 2025/26 global cotton production by 820,000 bales and consumption by 320,000 bales [5]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending June 5, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts decreased by 45% week - on - week and 51% compared to the four - week average. The 2025/26 US upland cotton cumulative contracts decreased by 30% year - on - year. The 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments decreased by 25% week - on - week and 19% compared to the four - week average. The total sales volume of 2024/25 US upland and Pima cotton accounted for 109% of the annual forecasted exports, and the cumulative export shipments accounted for 82% of the total annual contracts [6]. - **Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: Monsoon stagnation has affected sowing progress. Domestic yarn mills have weak export demand. The Cotton Corporation of India holds 6800,000 bales of cotton inventory. Cotton imports in March decreased by 30% from February but were higher than last year. The cumulative imports in the first eight months of this season reached 473,000 tons [8]. - **Brazil**: May cotton exports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The cumulative exports from July to May were higher than the same period in the 2023/24 season. On June 11, the Esalq spot price index was about 78.60 cents per pound [9]. - **Pakistan**: New cotton on the market is pressuring domestic prices. The production is likely to be between 6.5 million and 7.5 million bales. New seed cotton prices are around 8400 - 8800 rupees per 40 kg. A sales tax policy adjustment has different impacts on different market players [10]. - **Bangladesh**: May garment exports were strong. After Eid al - Fitr, spinning and weaving enterprises gradually resumed work. The cumulative export value in the current fiscal year (July/May) increased by 10% compared to the same period in the 2023/24 fiscal year [10]. - **Australia**: April cotton exports decreased to the lowest monthly level since April 2022. The cumulative exports in the first nine months of this season were lower than the same periods in the past two years [11]. - **Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates**: As of the week ending June 13, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 74%, 65%, and 58% respectively [11]. 2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Spot and Basis**: From June 13, domestic cotton futures first rose and then fell, while spot prices increased steadily, and the basis shifted upward. Spot trading was weaker than last week, with some textile enterprises making rigid - demand purchases [12]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of June 13, the total number of No. 1 cotton registered and forecasted warehouse receipts was 11,076, equivalent to 465,200 tons. Among them, there were 10,257 registered warehouse receipts for Xinjiang cotton and 496 for domestic cotton [12]. - **Downstream Market**: - **Cotton Yarn Market**: Affected by rising raw material prices, some textile enterprises raised their quotes at the beginning of the week, but trading was still light. Profits continued to deteriorate, and inventories accumulated. The national startup rate increased slightly, mainly due to the resumption of work in Xinjiang after the Eid al - Adha festival [13][14]. - **Cotton Fabric Market**: Demand remained weak, and the off - season atmosphere was obvious. The startup rate was basically flat. Orders were scarce, and inventories increased. Mills continued to operate at a loss and maintained a "use - as - you - go" procurement strategy [14]. 3. Basic Data Charts The report includes charts on Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory, textile enterprises' cotton inventory, weaving enterprises' yarn inventory, spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory, cotton fabric enterprises' cotton fabric inventory, yarn - spinning enterprises' startup rate, cotton - fabric enterprises' startup rate, cotton yarn profit, cotton fabric profit, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [15][16][17]. 4. Operation Suggestions ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, and domestic cotton futures are expected to be in an oscillatory trend. Attention should be paid to the weather in Xinjiang and external market impacts [18].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: June 13, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Recommendations - Zhengzhou cotton futures fluctuated. The latest China Cotton Price Index for Grade 328 was 14,852 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Different regions had various cotton basis quotes. The cotton yarn market had slightly better but still weak trading, with prices stable and difficult to increase. Spinning mill profits deteriorated due to strong cotton and weak yarn. The cotton grey fabric market was sluggish, with prices remaining stable and weak. After the end of the Eid al-Adha festival in Xinjiang, local weaving factories gradually resumed work, but the overall operating rate was low [7] - Overseas, the shipment progress of old - crop cotton was good, and the good - to - excellent rate was weaker than the same period last year, supporting the foreign market. In the domestic market, with a stable or slightly increasing planting area, the new - crop cotton output was expected to be stable or slightly increase. There was a high risk of high - temperature heat damage in the budding period in most cotton - growing areas in southern Xinjiang this week. The downstream yarn and grey fabric sectors continued to weaken, with weak market demand, stable or increasing finished - product inventories, and a stable or decreasing operating rate of inland spinning mills. Downstream profits gradually deteriorated. In the short term, the fundamental drivers were limited, and the Zhengzhou cotton price was in a difficult situation. Attention should be paid to the performance at the upper pressure level [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to the USDA's weekly crop growth report, as of the week ending June 8, the U.S. cotton planting progress was 76% (79% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 80%), the budding rate was 12% (13% in the same period last year), and the good - to - excellent rate was 49% (56% in the same period last year) [9] - According to CONAB, as of June 7, 2025, the cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 1.4% (0.9% last week and 1.7% in the same period last year) [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provided various data charts, including China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates such as USD/CNY and USD/INR [16][18][26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Cotton market is affected by multiple factors including domestic demand, international supply - demand changes; domestic cotton spot trading is cold, and the US cotton market shows fluctuations due to supply - demand adjustments [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,520 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15% and a night - session decline of 0.63%; CY2509 closed at 19,770 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.10% and a night - session decline of 0.35%; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 67.53 cents/pound with a daily decline of 0.25%. Trading volume and open interest of CF2509 decreased, while CY2509's open interest increased [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Zhengzhou cotton's warehouse receipts decreased by 25 to 10,769, and effective forecasts increased by 14 to 364; cotton yarn's warehouse receipts remained at 2, and effective forecasts increased by 2 to 2 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: Domestic spot prices showed different trends, with some regions rising and some falling. For example, Shandong's price rose by 54 yuan/ton (0.36%), and Hebei's price rose by 59 yuan/ton (0.40%), while the international cotton index M decreased by 0.08% [1] - **Spread Data**: CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton; the spread between northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 remained unchanged at 1,230 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Overall trading was cold, spinners' purchasing willingness was weak, and sales basis was firm. Different regions had different basis quotes, such as 2024/25 southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 mostly quoted at CF09 + 1100 - 1300 [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: Spinners raised yarn prices by 200 - 300 yuan, but sales followed slowly. In the traditional off - season, fabric mills replenished stocks on a need - to - basis, and traders' speculative demand was insufficient. Spinners' operating rates continued to decline, and market confidence was low [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton 12 first fell and then rose. Due to poor weekly sales data, it once hit a one - and - a - half - month low. After the USDA released the June supply - demand report, it rebounded as the USDA lowered the 2025/26 US cotton production forecast to 14 million bales (from 14.5 million bales in the May report) and raised the 2024/25 US cotton exports to 11.5 million bales (from 11.1 million bales in the May report), reducing the 2025/26 ending stocks to 4.3 million bales [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report indicates that cotton has insufficient upward momentum. The domestic cotton spot market has average trading, and the cotton - textile market has entered a slack season with weakening trading and mostly falling prices. The ICE cotton rebounded due to factors such as the dollar's decline, crude oil's rise, and concerns about the slow sowing progress [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2509 closed at 13,275 yuan/ton with a - 0.34% daily decline, and its trading volume was 203,391 lots, a decrease of 60,819 lots from the previous day. CY2507 closed at 19,525 yuan/ton with a - 0.10% daily decline, and its trading volume was 6,105 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day. ICE cotton 07 closed at 66.18 cents/pound with a 1.67% increase [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 11,102, a decrease of 55 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 374, a decrease of 6 from the previous day. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, with no change [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,407 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,193 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 3128B index was 14,569 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan from the previous day, a - 0.06% decline [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 60 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day's spread. The spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of domestic cotton spot was average, and the spot basis was temporarily stable. The lower sales basis of 2024/25 South Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with less than 3.5 impurities was around CF09 + 850, and most quotes of the same quality were above CF09 + 900, for self - pick - up in Xinjiang [2]. - **Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market weakened and entered the slack season. Tightly spun/Compact - spun 21 - 26 count cotton yarns and high - grade 40 count cotton yarns had relatively good sales, while other varieties were sluggish. Prices mostly declined, and spinning mills had difficulty in making high - price transactions and mainly negotiated for sales [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton rebounded, closing with a 1.67% increase. It was affected by the dollar's decline, crude oil's rise, and concerns about the slow sowing progress. As of the week of June 1st, the US cotton sowing progress was 66%, compared with 68% in the same period last year and a 5 - year average of 69% [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Cotton shows a volatile trend with a lack of driving forces. The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view [1][4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2509 closed at 13,410 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15% and a night - session closing price of 13,400 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%. Its trading volume was 173,996 lots, an increase of 8,451 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 760,814 lots, a decrease of 976 lots [1] - CY2507 closed at 19,650 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.33% and a night - session closing price of 19,620 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.15%. Its trading volume was 5,635 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 14,692 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - ICE Cotton 07 closed at 66.06 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.59% [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 11,359 sheets, a decrease of 50 sheets from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 327 sheets, a decrease of 21 sheets [1] - Cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 15 sheets, a decrease of 7 sheets from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0 sheets, an increase of 22 sheets [1] - **Spot Price Data**: - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,468 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The price in Shandong was 14,618 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The price in Hebei was 14,514 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The 3128B index was 14,608 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The international cotton index M was 74.88 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.54% from the previous day [1] - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,771 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - **Spread Data**: - The CF9 - 1 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,060 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, and the mainstream basis remained firm. The basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was CF09 + 800, and that of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang Corps machine - picked 4129/29 - 31B with impurity within 3 was CF09+1300 - 1400. The freight for cotton shipped out of Xinjiang by truck was basically stable [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The atmosphere in the pure - cotton yarn market was average, and trading could be maintained. Yarn prices were mainly stable, but the industry was skeptical about the sustainability of orders and overall confidence was not strong. The all - cotton grey fabric market was weak, with obvious insufficient orders and average shipments. Weaving mills' quotations were stable, and actual orders could be negotiated according to quantity [2] - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures rose slightly due to the weakening of the US dollar [3]

2025 年 5 月 22 日 棉花：震荡走势 缺乏明显驱动 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 CF2509 | 单 位 元/吨 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 0.34% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 13480 | 夜盘涨幅 0.30% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CY2507 | 元/吨 | 13,440 19,735 | 0.38% | 19755 | 0.10% | | | ICE美棉07 | 美分/磅 | 66.05 | -0.11% | | - | | 期 货 | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | CF2509 | 手 | 315,010 | 171,555 | 754,145 | 4,350 | | | CY2507 | 手 | 5,674 | -1,999 | 18,319 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | 11,45 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年5月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 棉花： 1、基本面：中美谈判取得进展，互降关税。USDA5月报：25/26年度产量下降，消费增 加，期末库存不变。海关：4月纺织品服装出口241.9亿美元，同比增1.5%。3月份我国 棉花进口7万吨，同比减少81.4%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比减少31%。农村部4月24/25年 度：产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14577，基差1187（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部24/25年度4月预计期末库存831万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势偏空； ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton declined by over 2% in the week ending May 16, pressured by the bearish USDA May supply - demand report, increased old - crop warehouse receipts, and favorable weather in major US cotton - growing areas. The domestic textile industry's operation is stable, but the downstream confidence is weak, with开机率 decreasing due to poor profits and limited new orders. The rebound of domestic cotton futures is mainly driven by market optimism from Sino - US talks, but there is a risk of decline if Xinjiang weather remains good and textile enterprises'开机率 continues to drop. Currently, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to fluctuate between 12,500 - 13,900 [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - ICE Cotton Main Continuation: Open at 67.61, High at 68.89, Low at 64.75, Close at 65.14, Down 1.58 or 2.37%, Volume 120,492 lots, Volume Change 19,586 lots, Open Interest 113,188 lots, Open Interest Change 7,367 lots - Zhengzhou Cotton Main Continuation: Open at 12,945, High at 13,480, Low at 12,920, Close at 13,390, Up 440 or 3.40%, Volume 1,295,371 lots, Volume Change 487,287 lots, Open Interest 572,606 lots, Open Interest Change - 1,478 lots - Cotton Yarn Main Continuation: Open at 19,205, High at 19,855, Low at 19,160, Close at 19,620, Up 400 or 2.08%, Volume 32,098 lots, Volume Change 9,847 lots, Open Interest 20,605 lots, Open Interest Change - 1,578 lots [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton**: Pressured by the bearish USDA May supply - demand report, increased old - crop warehouse receipts, and good weather in major US cotton - growing areas, ICE cotton declined. For the 2024/25 old - crop, USDA raised US cotton exports by 200,000 bales, but less than expected. The estimated ending stocks of 4.8 million bales pressured the July contract. For the 2025/26 new - crop, with a 11.7% year - on - year decrease in area and a 15.2% abandonment rate, production is expected to reach 14.5 million bales, and ending stocks will increase by 400,000 bales to 5.2 million bales [1][5] - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending May 8, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing was 27,700 tons, up 86% week - on - week and 2% above the four - week average. Weekly shipments were 74,700 tons, down 17% week - on - week and 5% below the four - week average. The total signed sales of 2024/25 US upland and Pima cotton reached 2.6296 million tons, accounting for 109% of the annual forecasted exports. The cumulative export shipments were 1.997 million tons, accounting for 76% of the total annual signed volume. New flower pre - sales were poor, and Pakistan continued to cancel contracts due to weak domestic demand [6] - **Other Cotton - Producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: In February, cotton imports decreased month - on - month, and so did the exports of cotton yarn and textile clothing. As of April 30, the Cotton Corporation of India sold about 200,000 bales of cotton, reducing its inventory to 7 million bales. The arrival volume this season has reached 27.5 million bales. The daily arrival volume is about 27,000 bales, mostly from Maharashtra. In February, raw cotton imports were 49,126 tons, down 17% from January but higher than last year. The cumulative imports in the first seven months of this season reached 439,237 tons, mainly from Australia and the African Franc Zone. In February, raw cotton exports were 37,651 tons, down 8% from the previous month and 69% from February 2024. Bangladesh is the main destination. Cotton yarn exports in February were 92,100 tons, slightly lower than in January and 8% lower than in February 2024. The total cotton yarn exports in the first seven months of this year were 625,064 tons, 8% less than in the same period of 2023/24. Textile exports in February were $2.05 billion, down 6% month - on - month but slightly higher than in February 2024 [8] - **Brazil**: Recent trading was light. CONAB slightly raised the 2024/25 cotton production forecast to 3.905 million tons, mainly due to the increased planting area in Bahia. About 60% of the 2025 - season cotton has been sold through primary channels. Farmers are hesitant to sell at current prices. In Mato Grosso, about 16% of the 2026 - season production has been sold. In April, raw cotton exports were 239,145 tons, similar to March and last year. Turkey is the largest buyer, followed by Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. The cumulative exports from July to April exceeded 2.55 million tons, more than in the same period of 2023/24 [9] - **Pakistan**: Cotton demand is low. Favorable weather has promoted sowing, but water shortages in some areas of Sindh still hinder field operations. In Punjab, sowing progress is faster than last year, exceeding 60% of the planned target, while in Sindh, the sowing completion rate is 33%. The local cotton market is inactive. Ginning mills are eager to clear inventory, but few spinning mills are willing to buy due to low profits [10] - **Australia**: Cotton exports in March were low. The production report is good, with an expected output of about 5.5 million bales, potentially the highest since 2022/23. However, untimely rainfall during the critical growth period may affect cotton quality, and the market is closely watching the early grading results [10] - **Bangladesh**: Cotton imports in April remained stable. Many spinning mills have good orders and replenishment needs, but difficulties in opening letters of credit still hinder transactions. In April, cotton imports were 148,449 tons, slightly up month - on - month and 12% up year - on - year. African Franc Zone cotton is the main import source, followed by Brazilian and Indian cotton. The total imports in the first nine months of 2024 were 1.25 million tons, up 16% year - on - year [11] - **Southeast Asian Textile Industry Operation Rates**: As of the week ending May 16, India's textile enterprises'开机率 was 75.5%, Vietnam's was 66%, and Pakistan's was 59% [11] Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Price and Transaction**: Domestic cotton futures and spot prices rose significantly in the week ending May 16, but spot transactions became lighter. After Sino - US tariff withdrawals, although some orders returned and backlogged orders were re - shipped, new orders were limited. The profit of downstream industries deteriorated as the price increase of cotton yarn and grey cloth was less than that of cotton, leading to low willingness to replenish raw materials [1][2][12] - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of May 16, the registered warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton were 11,548 lots, and the forecasted warehouse receipts were 365 lots, totaling 11,913 lots, equivalent to 500,346 tons. Among the 2024/25 registered warehouse receipts, 11,015 were Xinjiang cotton and 533 were local cotton [12] - **Downstream Market**: The transaction in the pure - cotton yarn market improved, especially in the second half of the week. The prices of 40 - 60 count cotton yarns increased by 300 - 500 yuan/ton. The profit of inland spinning mills was slightly negative, while that of Xinjiang spinning mills was good. Spinning mills' cotton yarn inventory first increased and then decreased, currently at a moderately low level, and the开机率 was stable. The overall situation in the all - cotton grey cloth market improved slightly. After the Sino - US joint statement, some traceable orders returned, but the overall order volume recovery was not obvious. The inventory of grey cloth remained high, and the开机率 of weaving mills was about 50%. Weaving mills were not willing to buy cotton yarn and mainly purchased as needed [13][14] 3. Basic Data Charts - Charts include Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning mills' cotton inventory (weekly), weaving mills' yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory (weekly), cotton yarn enterprises'开机率 (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises'开机率 (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [16][17][18] 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton futures are weak. Without new weather problems in US cotton - growing areas or major changes in US trade agreements, the upward momentum of ICE cotton is insufficient. The rebound of domestic cotton futures is mainly due to market optimism. If Xinjiang weather remains good and textile enterprises'开机率 continues to decline, Zhengzhou cotton futures may fall. Currently, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to fluctuate between 12,500 - 13,900 [20]

棉花早报——2025年5月15日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 棉花： 1、基本面：中美谈判取得进展，互降关税。USDA5月报：25/26年度产量下降，消费增 加，期末库存不变。海关：4月纺织品服装出口241.9亿美元，同比增1.5%。3月份我国 棉花进口7万吨，同比减少81.4%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比减少31%。农村部4月24/25年 度：产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14484，基差1039（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部24/25年度4月预计期末库存831万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方，偏多。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势偏空； ...