交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年9月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 利多：前期中美互加关税减少，商业库存同比降低。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 利空：贸易谈判继续进行，目前对美出口关税偏高。总 体外贸订单下降，库存增加。新棉即将大量上市。金九 消费不旺。 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：全国棉花产量预计722万吨，新疆再创新高。ICAC9月报：25/26年度产量2550万 吨，消费2550万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度产量2562.2万吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存 1592.5万吨。海关：8月纺织品服装出口265.4亿美元，同比下降5%。8月份我国棉花进口7万 吨，同比减少51.6%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比增加1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market continues to focus on the listing of new cotton. The domestic cotton spot market is mainly new - cotton pre - sales in the 2025/26 season, with stable to slightly discounted prices and relatively good pre - sales transaction atmosphere. The 2024/25 season spot is decreasing. The domestic cotton textile market has seasonal rigid - demand purchases, slow de - stocking, and weak prices. ICE cotton lacks upward momentum due to new US cotton listings and poor export sales [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,405 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.92% and a night - session closing price of 13,490 yuan/ton with a 0.63% increase. CY2511 closed at 19,610 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.86% decline and a night - session closing price of 19,760 yuan/ton with a 0.76% increase. ICE US cotton 12 was at 66.27 cents/pound with a 0.20% increase. The trading volume of CF2601 was 253,456 lots, a decrease of 68,886 lots from the previous day, and the position was 741,549 lots, an increase of 4,299 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 11,944 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the position was 6,640 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,397, a decrease of 186 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 12, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,677 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,390 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Shandong was 15,005 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan or 0.21% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 14,971 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan or 0.31% from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,001 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan or 0.28% from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 73.83 cents/pound, unchanged. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan or 0.17% from the previous day, and the arrival price was 21,497 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spread between CF1 - 5 was 0, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot market offers are mostly for 2025/26 new - cotton pre - sales, with stable to slightly discounted prices and good pre - sales transaction atmosphere. The 2024/25 spot is decreasing. Recently, the purchase price of seed cotton is stable and slightly weak, with the lower purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton with a lint percentage of 40% at about 5.9 - 6.1 yuan/kg and the higher purchase price at about 6.2 - 6.35 yuan/kg. The pre - sale price of new cotton in Kashgar in 2025/26 is around 14,500 yuan/ton, and the pre - sale basis is CF01 + 1000 - 1050, for delivery before mid - October. The lower pre - sale price of the 2025/26 new - cotton blind box is 14,650 - 14,750 yuan/ton, and the pre - sale basis is CF01 + 1050 - 1100, for delivery at the end of September and before mid - October [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market has seasonal rigid - demand purchases, with cautious purchases by traders and slow de - stocking. The price is negotiated according to the order volume. The price of pure - cotton cloth is stable and slightly weak, and the transaction atmosphere is weak. Currently, large new orders for weaving factories are few, and small orders are the main source to maintain production [2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate around 66 cents/pound. The new US cotton has started to be listed, and poor export sales make ICE cotton lack upward momentum [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 to 2 [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年9月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：全国棉花产量预计722万吨，新疆再创新高。ICAC9月报：25/26年度产量2550万 吨，消费2550万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度产量2562.2万吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存 1592.5万吨。海关：8月纺织品服装出口265.4亿美元，同比下降5%。8月份我国棉花进口7万 吨，同比减少51.6%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比增加18.18%。农村部9月25/26年度：产量636万 吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存822万吨。偏空。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15043， ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, in the fourth quarter, with new cotton hitting the market, the expected output is over 7.3 million tons, subjecting Zhengzhou cotton futures to significant hedging pressure. Consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period was lackluster, but the overall industrial chain showed slight improvement with gradually decreasing finished - product inventories. The price range is expected to be between 12,500 - 15,000 yuan/ton [1][38]. - Internationally, macro - factors still bring great uncertainty to the cotton market. The Fed may cut interest rates within the year, potentially supporting US cotton prices. Fundamentally, the supply of cotton in the Northern Hemisphere will gradually increase in the fourth quarter, while consumption remains stable, with no major fundamental contradictions. The operating range of US cotton is expected to be between 60 - 75 cents/pound [2][38]. - The recommended operation strategy for Zhengzhou cotton is mainly band trading [3][39]. 3) Summaries by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Review - In the third quarter of 2025, Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a trend of weakening in a range and then breaking down. The price of the main contract was roughly between 13,450 - 14,350 yuan/ton. Influenced by factors such as good cotton growth in Xinjiang, extension of the Sino - US tariff suspension period, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the price fluctuated [5]. - In the third quarter of 2025, ICE US cotton showed a weakening trend in a range, with the main contract price between 65.8 - 69.50 cents/pound. Affected by factors like high Brazilian cotton exports, Indian tariff exemptions, and changes in US weather and USDA reports, the price fluctuated [6]. b) Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply**: Most institutions predict an increase in the cotton planting area in the 2024/25 season, mainly driven by the expansion in Xinjiang. The comprehensive meteorological conditions in the cotton - growing areas were favorable, laying a good foundation for an increase in yield. Different institutions have different yield forecasts, with the report's estimate ranging from 7.3 - 7.7 million tons. The final yield depends on the weather during the harvest period, but a bumper harvest is likely [8][10][11]. - **Seed - cotton Purchase Price**: As of September 22, 2025, the average boll - opening rate in Xinjiang was about 83.2%. The expected purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton is 6.2 - 6.4 yuan/kg, and the current purchase price of hand - picked seed cotton is around 7.2 yuan/kg. Zhengzhou cotton futures above 14,000 yuan/ton face significant hedging pressure [14]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a 40% increase from the previous month but a 51.6% decrease year - on - year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import was 590,000 tons, a 72.6% year - on - year decrease. Future imports are expected to show a short - term month - on - month slow increase and a long - term low - level oscillation, with an annual import volume of about 1.2 - 1.4 million tons [19]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: Since September, the decline of Zhengzhou cotton futures has affected textile enterprises' sentiment, with cotton yarn prices dropping by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. However, the decline in cotton yarn prices was smaller than that of cotton, widening the cotton - yarn price spread and slightly improving textile enterprises' profits. The operating rate of textile enterprises did not rise significantly during the peak season, while that of weaving enterprises increased relatively significantly. Since August, the finished - product inventories of both types of enterprises have been decreasing [21][25][27]. c) International Market Analysis - **Global Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA's September cotton supply - demand report, in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume are expected to increase, while the beginning and ending inventories will decrease. The ending inventory will reach a four - year low [30]. - **Fed's Interest - rate Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. There are still two interest - rate meetings in 2025, and most Fed members expect two more interest - rate cuts totaling 50 basis points within the year. The expectation of interest - rate cuts may lead to a weaker US dollar, which may support US cotton prices [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased this week with a weekly decline of about 2.30%. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish approach towards the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract [8][9]. - According to the USDA report, from September 12 - 18, 2025, the export signing volume of US upland cotton decreased while the shipment volume increased. Domestically, there is a strong expectation of cotton production increase in northern Xinjiang. The purchase price of seed cotton has declined, and downstream spinning mills are less enthusiastic about restocking. The orders of terminal clothing and manufacturing enterprises have not improved significantly, and the cotton yarn inventory is accumulating, so the cotton price is expected to remain weak [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategy for Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract [8]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to the change of foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [9]. - **Market Review**: The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased by about 2.30% this week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: US cotton export signing volume decreased and shipment volume increased. In China, there is a strong production increase expectation in northern Xinjiang, the purchase price of seed cotton declined, downstream demand is weak, and the cotton price is expected to be weak [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract decreased by about 0.32% this week. As of September 16, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton futures decreased by 53 hands, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 8738 hands, and the net short positions decreased by 8685 hands [14]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of September 18, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 86,100 bales. The international cotton spot price was 78.15 cents per pound, down 0.95 cents per pound from last week [18]. - **Futures Market**: The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased by about 2.30%, and the price of cotton yarn futures 2511 contract decreased by about 0.63%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were - 21,472 hands, and in cotton yarn futures were - 120 hands. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3397, and that of cotton yarn futures was 0 [23][29][35]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 26, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,043 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,615 yuan per ton [42][53]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of September 25, the imported cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 14,181 yuan per ton, down 124 yuan per ton from last week; the imported cotton quota price was 13,336 yuan per ton, down 191 yuan per ton from last week. The imported cotton yarn price index for different specifications was also provided [58]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of September 25, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 881 yuan per ton, down 124 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1726 yuan per ton, down 57 yuan per ton from last week [61]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1481,700 tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons or 32.34% from the previous month. The industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 892,000 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous month [64]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In August 2025, China's cotton import volume was about 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons or 51.6%. The imported cotton yarn volume was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [70]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of the end of August, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous month, and the grey cloth inventory was 33.9 days, a decrease of 2.3 days from the previous month [73]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Garment Export Volume**: In August 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 26.54 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. Among them, textile exports were 12.39 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% and a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and garment exports were 14.15 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% [78]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of August 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of domestic garments were 670.83 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.95%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.2% [82]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money options this week is presented, but no specific data is given [83]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: A chart of the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is provided, but no specific analysis is given [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, with new cotton coming onto the market, the Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to show a weak and volatile trend due to high cotton production in Xinjiang, low purchasing enthusiasm from ginneries, and general downstream demand [7][8][51]. - Globally, the cotton production and demand in the 2025/26 season have both increased, and the ending stocks have decreased slightly, presenting a relatively neutral outlook [13][51]. - For US cotton, the production is relatively stable, but the signing progress is poor, and the price is expected to fluctuate [16][51]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In September, the cotton futures prices were weak. The supply side saw a significant increase in cotton production compared to previous years, with a general purchase expectation of 6 - 6.4 yuan/kg, exerting hedging pressure on the market. The downstream demand was average, and the peak season was expected to remain at the current level. The fundamentals of US cotton changed little, and it was expected to fluctuate [6][12]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - In October, with new cotton coming onto the market, there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand is expected to be average, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [7]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - For single - side trading, the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak and volatile. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the preface summary, in September, the cotton futures prices were weak. The supply side had high production, and the demand side was average. The US cotton fundamentals changed little and were expected to fluctuate [12]. 3.2.2 International Market - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production increased by 230,000 tons to 25.622 million tons compared to the previous month, with China increasing by 220,000 tons and India by 110,000 tons. The demand also increased, and the ending stocks decreased slightly [13][14]. 3.2.3 United States - The new US cotton has a good quality rate, but the signing progress is at a low level in the same period over the years. The 2025/26 production is expected to be 2.87 million tons, an increase of 300,000 tons compared to the previous year. As of September 14, the cumulative signing volume was 901,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.61%, and the cumulative shipment volume was 104,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 84.96%. China's cumulative signing volume was 104,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 84.96%, and the cumulative shipment was 0 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 100%. The drought situation has improved [16]. 3.2.4 Other Countries - In India, the cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season decreased by 312,000 hectares compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas was higher than normal. In Brazil, as of September 13, the cotton harvesting progress was 96.6%, and the processing progress was 36%. The new flower exports declined in the short term, and the quality indicators such as micronaire value and strength declined compared to last year [21][23]. 3.2.5 Domestic Market - Supply side: As of mid - September, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 30,580 tons from the previous month. In August 2025, 72,700 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 77,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import was 585,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72.7%. The domestic - foreign price difference was around 1,400 yuan/ton. - Demand side: The peak season demand was average, and the boost to the market was limited. As of mid - September, the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 862,100 tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons from the previous month. The yarn inventory was 25.43 days, and the grey cloth inventory was 31.56 days. In August, domestic demand was average, and the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 104.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The textile and clothing exports were average. From January to August 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were 197.274 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.25%. - New crop: The national cotton planting area in 2025 was adjusted up by 2.71 million mu to 47.306 million mu, and the total output was adjusted up to 7.415 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The market focus has shifted to the new cotton purchase price, and the purchase price is around 6 - 6.3 yuan/kg [26][28][29]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - International: The global cotton production and demand have increased, but are still at a medium level over the years, and the ending stocks have decreased. The US cotton production is relatively stable, but the demand is not optimistic, and the price is expected to fluctuate [51]. - Domestic: In October, with new cotton coming onto the market, there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand is average, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [51]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak and volatile. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [8]

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton showed a weak and volatile trend. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,083 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 2024/25 northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was mostly above CF01 + 1500, and the pre - sale basis of 2025/26 northern Xinjiang double 29 cotton was mostly above CF01 + 900 [7] - The pure cotton yarn market was average, with the peak season underperforming expectations and weaker than previous years. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement, and spinning mills sold at market prices. Cotton yarn prices were generally stable with a slow downward trend. The all - cotton grey fabric market maintained shipments, and grey fabric prices were stable. Overseas, U.S. cotton had a slightly lower good - to - excellent rate, an increased drought coverage in cotton - growing areas, and improved weekly export data, but overall it was in a weak and volatile range. Domestically, the purchase price of cottonseed was generally stable, but new cotton acquisition was slow due to local hail and rainfall in northern Xinjiang. Demand - side inventory was still decreasing steadily, but overall demand was weaker than the same period last year. In the short term, with limited new cotton supply, it would be weak under the pressure of a potential bumper harvest after the festival [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to the latest survey by the China Cotton Association, the estimated total cotton output in China in 2025 will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, the highest since 2013. Xinjiang's cotton output is expected to be about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, USD - CNY exchange rate, and USD - Indian rupee exchange rate [17][18][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The cotton market presents a complex situation. The spot trading of domestic cotton is sluggish with low inventory and few offers, and the spot sales basis is mostly stable. The purchase price of seed cotton is temporarily stable, but farmers are hesitant. The domestic cotton - textile enterprise market has general spot trading, with cotton yarn prices fluctuating slightly and the sales of cotton - cloth weakening. The ICE cotton futures declined due to the strengthening dollar, and the market is awaiting the US Department of Agriculture's weekly sales report data [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,555 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.11% and a night - session closing price of 13,520 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%. CY2511 closed at 19,860 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.02% and a night - session closing price of 19,765 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.48%. ICE cotton futures (December contract) closed at 66.14 cents/pound with a decline of 0.71%. The trading volume and positions of CF2601 decreased, while the positions of CY2511 increased [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,716, a decrease of 199 compared to the previous day, and the effective forecast remained unchanged at 12. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts and effective forecasts were both 0 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,827 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% compared to the previous day; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,540 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.10% compared to the previous day. The prices in Shandong and Hebei decreased. The 3128B index was 15,062 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% compared to the previous day. The international cotton index (M:CNCottonM) was 74.21 cents/pound, an increase of 0.62% compared to the previous day. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count remained unchanged, and the arrival price increased by 0.05% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 compared to the previous day's spread. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The spot trading of domestic cotton is cold, with low inventory and few offers. The spot sales basis is mostly stable. The purchase price of seed cotton is temporarily stable, but the actual trading volume at the lower price of 6.1 - 6.2 yuan/kg is small, and farmers are observing. The price for 2024/25 Dongjiang Hami machine - picked 3129/29B with less than 3.5 impurities is mostly CF01 + 900 - 1000, with a small number of lower quotes at 850 - 900 for inland warehouse self - pick - up [2] - **Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises**: The spot trading atmosphere of the pure - cotton yarn market is average. The price of pure - cotton yarn fluctuates slightly in the short term, and the market is waiting for the price guidance after the new cotton is listed. The sales of the cotton - cloth market are average, and the transactions are continuously weakening. The sales of medium - and low - count yarn cards are sustainable, while the prices of regular plain and twill fabrics are under pressure. The quoted price of cotton - cloth is stable, and the actual order price is negotiated according to the quantity [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined again due to the strengthening dollar, and the market is paying attention to the US Department of Agriculture's weekly sales report data [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - New cotton listing pressure weighs on cotton futures prices [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,610 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.80%, and the overnight closing price was 13,575 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%. The trading volume was 429,911 lots, an increase of 103,594 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 737,548 lots, an increase of 26,552 lots. The closing price of CY2511 was 19,675 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.30%, and the overnight closing price was 19,665 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%. The trading volume was 12,216 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 16,034 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The closing price of ICE Cotton No. 12 was 66.25 cents/pound with a decline of 0.08% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 4,096, a decrease of 136 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 12, unchanged from the previous day. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan or 0.80% from the previous day. The price of Nanjang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,595 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 0.68% from the previous day. The price in Shandong was 15,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day. The price in Hebei was 15,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.33% from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,224 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan or 0.39% from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 73.86 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent or 0.85% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.24% from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,433 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan or 0.01% from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous day's spread, and the spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was sluggish, with low inventory and few offers. The basis for spot sales was mostly stable. Recently, the purchase price of seed cotton was slightly weaker. The price of hand - picked cotton with about 39 - 40% lint and less than 12% moisture in Xinjiang was 7.15 - 7.35 yuan/kg, and the price of machine - picked cotton was 6.1 - 6.25 yuan/kg. The sales basis of 2024/25 Nanjang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with less than 3.5% impurities was mostly CF01 + 1300 - 1400 for inland self - pick - up [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The sentiment in the pure - cotton yarn market further weakened, and prices declined slightly in some areas. Some autumn and winter orders were replenished, and the inventory of spinning mills decreased to some extent, but the decline rate was slower than in previous years, and overall demand this year was lower than in previous years. The sales of all - cotton grey fabric market weakened in some areas, with small - order deliveries maintained. There were also small - order transactions recently, but large orders did not appear [2]. - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures continued to decline slightly yesterday, affected by the decline in crude oil and other agricultural products, but the decline narrowed [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity values is in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points as expected, but due to overly dovish expectations, commodities and stocks fell after the rate cut. Entering the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the operating rates of the downstream industry chain are gradually increasing but still lower than the same period in previous years. With no new supply, the current domestic cotton inventory is at a historically low level, but there are expectations of increased production in the long - term. Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price of US cotton futures rose and then fell this week. As of Friday, the December contract of US cotton futures closed at 66.3 cents per pound, down 0.46 cents per pound from the previous week, a decline of 0.69%. The spread between December and March of US cotton weakened slightly, at -2 cents per pound, down 0.09 cents per pound from the previous week. Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton fell. As of Friday, the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,720 yuan per ton, down 140 yuan per ton from the previous week, a decline of 1.01%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,319 yuan per ton, down 71 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis strengthened, at 1,528 yuan per ton, up 161 yuan per ton from the previous week. The spread between January and May of Zhengzhou cotton weakened slightly, at 15 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry Information**: As of the week of September 19, the spinning mill operating rate was 66.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous week and down 5.8 percentage points from the same period last year; the weaving mill operating rate was 37.9%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous week and down 14.5 percentage points from the same period last year. The weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.14 million tons, 520,000 tons less than the same period last year. In August 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons. From January to August 2025, China imported 590,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.05 million tons [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: After the Fed's rate cut, short - term commodities and stocks fell. The current fundamentals show that although the operating rates of the downstream industry chain are increasing, they are still lower than in previous years. The domestic cotton inventory is low, but there are expectations of increased production in the long - term. Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: On September 19, 2025, the basis was 1,528 yuan per ton, the spread between January and May of Zhengzhou cotton was 15 yuan per ton, the spinning immediate profit was -1,107 yuan per ton, the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 203 yuan per ton, and the FC index M with 1% tariff was 13,457 yuan per ton, and with sliding - scale duty was 14,258 yuan per ton. The short - term cotton price may continue to fluctuate [10]. 2. Spread Trend Review - The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, US cotton contract spreads, and external market spreads, to show the spread trends of different periods and varieties [24][26][28] 3. Domestic Market Situation - **Production and Imports**: The report shows the data and trends of China's cotton processing, import volume, US exports to China, and cotton yarn imports through various charts [38][40][43][45] - **Downstream Operations**: It presents the operating rates of spinning and weaving mills, national sales progress, cotton inventory, and spinning mill raw material and finished - product inventory through charts [48][50][53][55] 4. International Market Situation - **US Market**: The report shows the US cotton planting situation, production, yield, planting area, export signing progress, export shipping volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio through various charts [59][61][63][67][69] - **Brazilian Market**: It presents Brazil's cotton planting area, yield, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio through charts [72][75][78] - **Indian Market**: The report shows India's cotton planting area, yield, consumption, import and export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio through charts [80][83][86]