Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that cotton will maintain a volatile trend. The fundamental driving force for the rise in cotton prices remains weak, and the current market is mainly influenced by market sentiment [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,460 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.04%, and the night - session closing price was 13,495 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.26%. The closing price of CY2601 was 19,725 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.10%, and the night - session closing price was 19,805 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.41%. The price of ICE US cotton 3 was 63.93 cents/pound with an increase of 0.24%. The trading volume of CF2601 was 295,438 lots, an increase of 27,671 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 945,741 lots, an increase of 14,640 lots. The trading volume of CY2601 was 20,225 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 20,948 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,244, a decrease of 1,259 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 1,221, an increase of 74. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 17, a decrease of 10, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 27 [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,376 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,363 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Shandong was 14,852 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan or 0.03%. The 3128B index was 14,796 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan or 0.03%. The international cotton index M was 71.77 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.04%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,590 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan or 0.04% [1]. - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan from the previous day's spread. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 920 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading has changed little, with textile enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases and having weak purchasing willingness. The spot fixed - price quotes are stable, and the spot sales basis is also stable. The current cotton outbound freight by truck has increased steadily. The freight from Northern Xinjiang's Kuitun to Shandong's Heze is about 665 yuan/ton, and from Southern Xinjiang's Aksu to Shandong's Heze is about 695 yuan/ton [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The overall trading of pure - cotton yarn is average, with stable quotes and a downward - shifting transaction focus. Some high - count combed yarn prices have increased steadily. Recently, textile enterprises are mainly delivering previous orders, with few new orders. Small and medium - sized textile enterprises produce as needed, with little inventory pressure and good sales. Some large - scale textile enterprises have a decline in the production - sales ratio, a slight increase in inventory, and a certain reduction in the operating rate. High - quality yarns such as pure Australian cotton in traceability orders are selling well, and some manufacturers are rushing for exports [2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures first declined and then rose, mainly affected by market sentiment, and the fundamental driving force for the rise in cotton prices remains weak [2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 to 2 [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cotton prices continued to fluctuate around 13,500 this week. With cost support from the spot market, the downside is limited. It presents an opportunity for mid - to long - term long positions to enter the market at low prices and target distant contracts [4][5]. - The textile industry is in the off - season, but short - term benefits from China - US negotiations have led to a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include a slight increase in seed cotton purchase prices, a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US. Negative factors are a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and the traditional consumption off - season [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton prices fluctuated around 13,500. The ICAC November report forecasts a 2025/26 production of 25.4 million tons and consumption of 25 million tons. The USDA November report predicts a 2025/26 production of 26.145 million tons, consumption of 25.883 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.532 million tons. In October, textile and clothing exports were $22.262 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63%. China imported 90,000 tons of cotton in October, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%, and 140,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. The Ministry of Agriculture's November 2025/26 forecast shows production of 6.6 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.45 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Hints - The textile industry is in the off - season. Short - term benefits from China - US negotiations have led to a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US. Domestic new cotton picking is almost finished. With cost support, the downside of futures prices is limited, and it's a good time for mid - to long - term long positions to enter the market at low prices and target distant contracts [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus Not provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In 2025/26, global production is expected to be 26.145 million tons, consumption 25.883 million tons, and ending inventory 16.532 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, and exports [11][12]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In 2025/26, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, yield per hectare is 835.13 kg, production is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [14]. - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In 2025/26, production is 6.6 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.45 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [15]. - **Other Data**: There are also data on polyester fiber prices, spinning mill profits, cotton yarn imports, cotton yarn production start - up rates, and weaving mill start - up rates [18][20][25]. 3.5 Position Data Not provided in the report.

Report Overview - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton futures market showed a fluctuating upward trend. With the Xinjiang seed - cotton purchase almost finished, the market's expectation of the 2025/26 Xinjiang cotton output increased. The downstream market remained weak, but the overall finished - product inventory increased slightly. Considering the limited short - term fundamental changes, it is advisable to try to go long on Zhengzhou cotton at low prices [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and closed higher. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,779 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang was between 14,600 - 14,800 yuan/ton (public standard). The cotton yarn market's trading weakened, with fewer new orders for spinning mills and a decline in operating rates. The price of pure - cotton yarn was generally stable with a slight decline, while high - count combed yarn prices were relatively firm. The sales of cotton grey cloth were still differentiated, and the price was stable with a weakening trend [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Given the limited short - term fundamental changes, try to go long on Zhengzhou cotton at low prices [8]. 3.2 Industry News - According to the USDA's weekly crop growth report, as of the week of November 16, the U.S. cotton picking rate was 71%, compared with 76% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 72%. As of November 18, 2025, 1,039 cotton processing enterprises across the country had processed and conducted notarized inspections on cotton, with a cumulative inspection of 3.2727 million tons, an increase of 101,900 tons from the previous day. Among them, Xinjiang's inspection volume was 3.244 million tons, an increase of 101,200 tons [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates such as the U.S. dollar against the Chinese yuan and the U.S. dollar against the Indian rupee [16][18][19][21][28][30].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bearish [2] Core View of the Report - ICE cotton futures rebounded, but with persistent seasonal supply pressure and rising commercial cotton inventories, Zhengzhou cotton hit a monthly low. The textile industry entered the off - season, with weakening domestic demand and limited growth in the return of foreign trade orders. Spinning mills had a weak willingness to replenish stocks, so Zhengzhou cotton maintained a weak operation [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 234,402 lots, and the open interest was 941,760 lots. The settlement prices were 13,415 yuan/ton for January, 13,420 yuan/ton for May, and 13,590 yuan/ton for September. The ICE December contract's settlement price was 62.57 cents, up 21 points; the March contract was 64.39 cents, up 33 points; the May contract was 65.57 cents, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 63,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 17, the basis price of machine - picked new cotton in Shihezi, Xinjiang, for the 2601 contract in Xinjiang warehouses was 1060 - 1100 yuan/ton, stable compared to last Friday, and the pick - up price was 14,460 - 14,550 yuan/ton, down 20 - 30 yuan/ton from last Friday [2] - According to the USDA's November 2025 US cotton supply - demand forecast report, the 2025/26 US cotton planting area was 56.427 million mu, the harvested area was 44.729 million mu, and the abandonment rate remained unchanged at 20.7% [2] - In September, Indonesia imported 26,000 tons of cotton, a 35.5% decrease from the previous month (about 40,000 tons) and a 30.3% decrease year - on - year (37,000 tons), the smallest monthly import since March [2] - On November 17, the cotton yarn futures increased in volume and decreased in open interest, with prices falling, while the spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The textile market was lukewarm, with most cotton yarn prices stable, some enterprises offering small discounts, and overall good sales of Xinjiang cotton yarn, especially for 40S and 60S yarns [2] Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures rebounded, but due to continuous seasonal supply pressure, rising commercial cotton inventories, the textile industry's off - season, weakening domestic demand, limited growth in the return of foreign trade orders, and spinning mills' weak willingness to replenish stocks, Zhengzhou cotton maintained a weak operation [2] Trading Strategy - Close the put option and hold the call option for the previous at - the - money straddle option of the 01 contract; hold the call option with an exercise price of 13,500 yuan/ton for the 05 contract [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The pressure of new cotton listings still suppresses cotton futures prices. The overall market shows a weak trend, with cotton spot trading being light, and the cotton textile industry in a traditional off - season with cautious market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Cotton Futures Data - **Prices and Changes**: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,450 yuan/ton, down 0.30%, and the night - session closing price was 13,445 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The closing price of CY2601 was 19,695 yuan/ton, down 0.48%, and the night - session closing price was 19,710 yuan/ton, up 0.08%. The price of ICE US cotton 3 was 64.14 cents/pound, down 0.68% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 210,406 lots, an increase of 6,629 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 918,018 lots, a decrease of 24,420 lots. The trading volume of CY2601 was 13,433 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 23,504 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 4,401, an increase of 221, and the effective forecast was 643, a decrease of 235. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 28, a decrease of 2, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 30 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Cotton Spot Prices**: The price of northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,454 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.28% compared to the previous day; the price of southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,393 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan or - 0.28%. The prices in Shandong and Hebei also showed slight declines [1]. - **Yarn Spot Prices**: The price of pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 20,490 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the arrival price was 21,100 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan or - 0.18% [1]. 3.3 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot Situation**: Cotton spot trading was light, and sales basis was mostly stable, with a decrease in low - basis goods. The one - price quotes for northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (2025/26, 3129/29B, impurity within 3.5) were above 14,550 yuan/ton, and the point - price basis was mostly above CF01 + 1050. The mainstream lower sales basis for southern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (2025/26, 3129/29 - 30B, impurity within 3) was between CF01 + 900 and 1050 [1][2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises Situation**: Pure cotton yarn trading was light, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment. Downstream markets focused on shipments, and spinning mills' sales slowed down, with inventory slightly increasing. The all - cotton grey fabric market had a differentiated trading situation, with clothing grey fabric sales being flat and home textile grey fabric sales continuing. Orders were mainly inquiries for export orders, and the increase in domestic spring - summer orders was limited [1][2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures fell below the October low because the US Department of Agriculture raised the production and ending inventory estimates of US cotton for the 2025/26 season [1][2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2, 2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [4].

Industry - The industry under research is cotton [1] Report Date - The report was released on November 13, 2025 [2] Researchers - The researchers include Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 is 14,851 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market shows different price ranges and basis levels for different cotton qualities. The overall trading in the pure cotton yarn market is marginally weakening, with new orders insufficient and differentiation among varieties. The profit of weaving factories is around the break - even line. Some local all - cotton grey cloth prices have increased, and the overall price is stable. The shipment of all - cotton weaving factories has increased locally, and the inventory has decreased. Internationally, the US government shutdown crisis shows signs of improvement, and the NASS monthly supply - demand report is scheduled for November 14. Domestically, the seed cotton purchase is gradually ending, the purchase price has declined from the peak, and the market is concerned about changes in production expectations. The import of US cotton may pick up. As of the end of October, the commercial cotton inventory level is slightly higher than that of last year. The downstream terminal demand remains tepid but has some resilience, and there has been a marginal improvement in local downstream demand recently. The textile and clothing export in October declined both year - on - year and month - on - month, but the weekly data shows that the operating rate of textile enterprises has increased slightly and the finished product inventory has decreased. The supply pressure is increasing during the peak season of new cotton listing and processing [7][8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For futures contracts, CF2601 closed at 13,570 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 255,193 lots and an open interest of 564,881 lots, a decrease of 9,024 lots. CF2605 closed at 13,580 yuan/ton, down 0.41%, with a trading volume of 8,345 lots and an open interest of 264,282 lots, an increase of 2,505 lots. CF2609 closed at 13,745 yuan/ton, down 0.33%, with a trading volume of 280 lots and an open interest of 6,169 lots, an increase of 54 lots. In the spot market, the 328 - grade cotton price index is 14,851 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. The price of machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang is mainly between 14,600 - 14,800 yuan/ton (gross weight), and the basis is in different ranges. The basis of grade 41 machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang is mainly above CF01 + 900 [7] - **Analysis of Market Conditions**: The international market is waiting for the US NASS monthly supply - demand report. Domestically, the seed cotton purchase is approaching the end, the purchase price has dropped, and the market is concerned about production expectations. The import of US cotton may increase. The downstream demand is tepid but has some resilience, and the operating rate of textile enterprises has increased slightly while the inventory has decreased [8] 2. Industry News - From November 3 - 9, the large - scale machine - picking of cotton in Xinjiang was basically completed. Picking in northern Xinjiang has ended, and the purchase volume is scarce. Picking in southern Xinjiang is in the final stage. As the picking nears the end, the quality of seed cotton has declined from the peak, and the purchase price has also decreased. The machine - picked cotton purchase price is mostly between 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg, and the high - quality seed cotton purchase price remains around 6.4 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The purchase price of hand - picked cotton in Xinjiang has also slightly decreased, ranging from 6.8 - 7.1 yuan/kg. As of 24:00 on November 11, the cumulative public inspection of cotton in Xinjiang in the 25/26 season was 260,000 tons, and the national cumulative public inspection was 2.62 million tons [9][10] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to the Chinese cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, and US dollar - Indian rupee exchange rate [17][18][19][21][29][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Cotton futures prices are slightly falling due to a lack of upward - driving factors. The cotton market shows different trends in different segments, with domestic cotton spot having good trading but the cotton - textile market being sluggish, and ICE cotton futures continuing to decline [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,515 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.33% daily increase, and its overnight closing price was 13475 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% to - 0.20% overnight increase. CY2601 closed at 19,790 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.33% daily increase, and its overnight closing price was 19750 yuan/ton. ICE cotton futures closed at 64.82 cents/pound yesterday with a - 0.93% daily increase. The trading volume of CF2601 was 381,126 lots, an increase of 181,748 compared to the previous day, and its position was 941,724 lots, a decrease of 5,344. The trading volume of CY2601 was 14,275 lots, a decrease of 1,999, and its position was 24,392 lots, an increase of 1,045 [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,884, an increase of 265, and the effective forecast was 1,135, a decrease of 19. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 31, an increase of 12, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 7 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan compared to the previous day with a - 0.34% change. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,418 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan with a - 0.28% change. The price in Shandong was 14,878 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan with a 0.09% change. The price in Hebei was 14,873 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan with a 0.02% change. The 3128B index was 14,851 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan with a 0.06% change. The international cotton index: M: CNCottonM was 73.04 cents/pound, a decrease of 1 cent with a - 0.94% change. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 20,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan with a - 0.15% change. The arrival price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 21,203 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan with a - 0.03% change [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 compared to the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading is good, and the overall basis is stable. The mainstream lower sales basis of 2025/26 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurities within 3 is CF01 + 900 - 1050, and for 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurities within 3.5, it is mostly CF01 + 900 and above [2] - **Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is still sluggish, with new orders being weak. Due to the weakening of seasonal rigid demand, traders and downstream weavers are cautious in purchasing. The price of pure - cotton yarn is generally stable [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures continued to fall yesterday, approaching the October low again, affected by the decline in crude oil and the market's cautious attitude towards the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton are neutral. The 25/26 annual production, consumption, and inventory data from different institutions show a balanced situation overall. For example, the ICAC 11 - month report indicates a production of 2540 tons and consumption of 2500 tons in the 25/26 period [4]. - Currently, new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, and the production may be less than previously estimated. The export tariff to the US has decreased by 10% compared to the previous period. The futures main contract 01 is approaching delivery, with limited downside space, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include a slight increase in seed cotton purchase prices, a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US. Negative factors are a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, a large amount of new cotton about to be listed, and the current traditional consumption off - season [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 - Different institutions have different estimates of cotton production, consumption, and inventory in the 25/26 period. For example, the ICAC 11 - month report shows a production of 2540 tons and consumption of 2500 tons; the USDA 9 - month report shows a production of 2562.2 tons, consumption of 2587.2 tons, and an ending inventory of 1592.5 tons; the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's November 25/26 forecast has a production of 660 tons, imports of 140 tons, consumption of 740 tons, and an ending inventory of 845 tons [4]. - In September, textile and clothing exports were 24.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. Cotton imports were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%; cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [4]. 3.2每日提示 - The basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,842, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1282, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture's November 25/26 forecast of ending inventory is 8.45 million tons, which is bearish [6]. - The market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - Main positions: The net short positions are decreasing, but the overall position is still bearish [6]. 3.3今日关注 - There is no specific content marked as "今日关注" in the report. 3.4基本面数据 - Global production, consumption, import, export, and ending inventory data from the USDA's September forecast are presented, showing the situation of different countries and regions. For example, in terms of production, the total global production in the 25/26 period is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons [14]. - The Chinese cotton supply - demand balance sheet shows data on initial inventory, sown area, yield per unit area, production, imports, consumption, ending inventory, domestic cotton average price, and the Cotlook A index from 2023/24 to 2025/26 [17]. 3.5持仓数据 There is no specific content about "持仓数据" in the report. 3.6预期 - New cotton is gradually coming onto the market, and production may be less than previously estimated. The export tariff to the US has decreased by 10%. The futures main contract 01 is approaching delivery, with limited downside space, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The cotton market lacks upward momentum, and cotton futures prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The ICE cotton futures are in a low - level oscillation, waiting for the US Department of Agriculture's monthly supply - demand report on Friday [1][3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,560 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15% and a night - session close of 13,535 yuan/ton with a 0.18% decline. CY2601 closed at 19,855 yuan/ton with a 0.05% daily decline and 19,820 yuan/ton at night with a 0.18% decline. ICE US cotton 12 closed at 63.93 cents/pound with a 0.64% decline. Trading volumes of CF2601 and CY2601 decreased by 115,823 and 1,999 hands respectively compared to the previous day, while their positions increased by 8,762 and 1,045 hands respectively [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Forecasts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts increased by 325 to 3,619, and the effective forecast decreased by 237 to 1,154. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 19, and the effective forecast increased by 7 to 12 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,534 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.14% from the previous day. The price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,458 yuan/ton, also down 20 yuan or 0.14%. The 3128B index was 14,842 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.01%. The international cotton index M was 73.73 cents/pound, up 1 cent or 1.22% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 0, and the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 970, with no change compared to the previous day [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading showed little change, with overall performance being average, and the spot basis remained stable. Different regions in Xinjiang had different sales basis prices [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The cotton yarn market was lukewarm, with 40 - count yarn having better sales. Due to the reduction of Sino - US trade tariffs, traceability orders improved. Spinning mills had high operating intentions due to good cash flow. Cotton yarn prices mostly remained stable, and there was a differentiation in the sales of cotton grey cloth [2]. - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures declined slightly, and both the international market and US cotton itself lacked upward drivers, so the ICE cotton futures remained in a low - level oscillation [3]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market are neutral. The new cotton is gradually coming onto the market, and the production may be lower than previously estimated. The tariff on exports to the US has decreased by 10%. The short - term support level for the futures main contract 01 is around 13,500, and it is expected to continue with a volatile and bullish trend [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No information provided in the report 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton year. ICAC's November report shows a production of 25.4 million tons and consumption of 25 million tons. USDA's September report indicates a production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, and cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. The Ministry of Agriculture's November forecast for the 2025/26 year shows production of 6.6 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.45 million tons [5]. - **Expected Situation**: New cotton is gradually coming onto the market, with possible lower production than previously estimated. The tariff on exports to the US has decreased by 10%. The short - term support level for the futures main contract 01 is around 13,500, and it is expected to continue with a volatile and bullish trend [6]. - **Base Difference**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 14,844, and the base difference is 1264 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is a bullish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's November 2025/26 year forecast for ending inventory is 8.45 million tons, which is a bearish signal [7]. - **Market Trends**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish signal [7]. - **Main Positions**: The positions are bearish, with net short positions increasing, and the main trend is bearish [7]. - **Bullish Factors**: The purchase price of seed cotton has slightly increased, and the commercial inventory is lower year - on - year. The tariff on exports to the US has decreased by 10% [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: Overall foreign trade orders have decreased, inventory has increased, a large amount of new cotton is about to come onto the market, and it is currently the traditional off - season for consumption [9]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided in the report 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September)**: The total global production in the 2025/26 year is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; and ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [15][16]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 2025/26 year, global production is 2.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,000 tons (1.6%); global trade volume is 0.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with narrower year - on - year fluctuations [17]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: For the 2025/26 year, the estimated production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [19]. 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the report