Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The cotton market is waiting for the end of adjustment. The current situation shows a mixed picture with some factors indicating weakness and others suggesting a wait - and - see attitude. The trend strength of cotton is neutral [1][2][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Cotton Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: CF2605 closed at 14,675 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.44% daily increase and 14,490 yuan/ton in the night session with a - 1.26% increase; CY2603 closed at 20,690 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.50% daily increase and 20,535 yuan/ton in the night session with a - 0.75% increase; ICE US cotton 3 was at 64.48 cents/pound with a 0.12% increase [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2605 yesterday was 646,858 lots, a decrease of 198,137 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,200,876 lots, an increase of 1,238 lots; the trading volume of CY2603 was 9,754 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 16,816 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 7,388, an increase of 199, and the effective forecast was 2,299, an increase of 51; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 20, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 17, an increase of 3 [1] - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan or - 0.39% from the previous day; the price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan or - 0.39%; the price in Shandong was 16,033 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan or - 0.39%; the price in Hebei was 15,882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan or - 0.66%; the 3128B index was 15,930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan or - 0.39%; the international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 72.46 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.48%; the price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the arrival price was 21,044 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan or 0.01% [1] - **Spreads**: The CF3 - 5 spread was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous day; the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 830 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot basis quotes are relatively stable. The sales basis of 2025/26 North Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3 is mostly at CF05 + 950 or above. The freight for cotton out of Xinjiang by truck has dropped significantly [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn is generally stable, but the trading atmosphere is weak. The operating rate of downstream weaving enterprises is low, with most orders being small and short - term. The inventory of grey cloth is higher than the same period in previous years, and the purchasing intention of weaving factories is weak [2] - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly. Although the strengthening of the US dollar has an adverse impact on ICE cotton, there is no new negative news in the international cotton market. ICE cotton is in a low - level oscillating pattern, and the market is in a wait - and - see state before the USDA monthly supply - demand report next week [2] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is an integer in the [- 2, 2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of about 0.62%. The US cotton export signing volume continued to decline, while the domestic cotton market supply was relatively sufficient, and the inventory continued to increase. The downstream textile enterprises had limited orders, and some weaving mills might have an early holiday. However, the market generally expected a decline in the cotton planting area in the new year, which supported the cotton market to a certain extent. The short - term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro and policy factors [8] Summary by Directory 1. Week - by - Week Highlights Summary Market Review - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of about 0.62% [8] Market Outlook - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 98,000 bales, a decrease of 27% from the previous week and 49% from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume was 154,000 bales, an increase of 9% from the previous week and 18% from the average of the previous four weeks. The domestic cotton market supply is relatively sufficient, and the inventory continues to increase. The downstream textile enterprises have limited orders, and some weaving mills may have an early holiday. The short - term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise [8] Future Trading Tips - Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market US Cotton Market - This week, the price of the US cotton March contract rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.78%. As of December 30, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 81,162 lots, an increase of 722 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 112,119 lots, an increase of 46 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 30,957 lots, a decrease of 676 lots from the previous week [14] Foreign Cotton Spot Market - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the net increase in export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 98,000 bales, a decrease of 27% from the previous week and 49% from the average of the previous four weeks. This week, the international cotton spot price was 75.05 cents per pound, an increase of 0.75 cents per pound from the previous week [20] Futures Market - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Cotton 2605 contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of about 0.62%. The cotton yarn futures 2603 contract rose 0.51%. As of this week, the net positions of the top twenty in cotton futures were - 177,522 lots, and the net positions of the top twenty in cotton yarn futures were - 1,948 lots. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 7,388, and the number of cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts was 20 [23][30][34] Spot Market - As of January 9, 2026, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,930 yuan per ton. The spot price of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 21,300 yuan per ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 15,130 yuan per ton; CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 24,300 yuan per ton [45][55] Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost - As of January 9, 2026, the sliding - scale duty price of imported cotton was 13,729 yuan per ton, a decrease of 201 yuan per ton from the previous week; the quota price of imported cotton was 12,599 yuan per ton, a decrease of 323 yuan per ton from the previous week. As of January 8, 2026, the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 20,155 yuan per ton; C32S was 21,326 yuan per ton; JC32S was 23,080 yuan per ton [59] Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit - As of January 9, 2026, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 2,263 yuan per ton, an increase of 637 yuan per ton from the previous week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,475 yuan per ton, an increase of 759 yuan per ton from the previous week [63] 3. Industry Situation Supply Side - As of the end of November 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, an increase of 59.82%, and 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, an increase of 0.21%. The in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 939,600 tons, an increase of 51,400 tons from the end of the previous month. In November 2025, China's total cotton imports were about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%; from January to November 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64%. In November 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons [68][75] Mid - end Industry - As of the end of November 2025, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days from the previous month. The grey fabric inventory was 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days from the previous month [78] Terminal Consumption - In November 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 23.87 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%, a month - on - month increase of 7.20%. Among them, textile exports were 12.28 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1%; clothing exports were 11.59 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing were 864.54 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 13.90%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.9%, a month - on - month increase of 20.83% [84][88] 4. Options and Stock - related Markets Options Market - This week's implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton is presented in the report, but specific data is not detailed [89] Stock Market - The report shows the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [92]

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) are experiencing a gradual increase, with the current price at 64.50 cents per pound, reflecting a 0.16% rise from the opening price [1]. Group 1: Cotton Futures Market Overview - On January 8, the ICE cotton futures opened at 64.82 cents per pound, reached a high of 64.91 cents, a low of 64.46 cents, and closed at 64.62 cents, marking a decrease of 0.60% [2]. - As of January 2, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported that the number of unpriced sell orders for U.S. cotton (ON-call) was 46,251 contracts, a decrease of 1,927 contracts from the previous week. The unpriced buy orders stood at 88,321 contracts, down by 706 contracts [2]. - The ICE cotton futures saw a reduction in unpriced contracts for sellers, with 18,662 contracts reported, a decrease of 1,977 contracts from the prior week [2]. Group 2: Pricing and Profitability - The average price for 3128 grade cotton delivered nationwide was 15,883 yuan per ton, down by 280.00 yuan per ton [2]. - The price for 32s pure cotton yarn remained stable at 22,089 yuan per ton, while the spinning profit was reported at -1,382.3 yuan per ton, an increase of 308.00 yuan per ton [2]. Group 3: Export Dynamics - Brazil exported a record 452,500 tons of cotton in December, driven by high demand from Asian countries [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Cotton Futures Daily Report [1] - Report date: January 6, 2026 [1] - Report cycle: Daily [1] - Researcher: You Zhenqi (Qualification No.: F3012673; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0012990) [1] Group 2: Futures Market - The closing price of the main cotton futures contract CF2605 was 14,855 yuan/ton, up 1.05% [2]. - The intraday high was 14,885 yuan/ton, the low was 14,640 yuan/ton [2]. - The trading volume was 394,098 lots, and the turnover was 2.909 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Spot Market - The basis of the CF2605 contract on the day was 960 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 6.15% [4]. - The spot reference price (Xinjiang 15,450 yuan/ton) was higher than the futures price [4]. - The basis remained unchanged from the previous trading day, maintaining a significant positive structure [4]. Group 4: Influencing Factors - As of December 15, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.349 million tons, and the industrial inventory was 983,900 tons [5]. - The China Yarn Price Index (C32S) was reported at 21,240 yuan/ton [5]. - The spot price of Xinjiang cotton was 15,450 yuan/ton, supporting the stability of the basis [5]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Domestic cotton prices are supported by the expectation of tightened supply and the recovery of high - value - added cotton product exports [6]. - However, the high commercial inventory and cautious downstream procurement restrict the upside space [6]. - It is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of the new import quota regulations and RMB exchange rate changes [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market maintains a strong trend. The price of domestic cotton futures and spot has increased, while the ICE cotton futures rose but lacked a clear fundamental upward driver, leading to a narrowing of the increase at the end of the session. The price of pure - cotton yarn showed a mixed trend, with the prices of medium - and low - count yarns weakening and high - count yarns remaining firm. Spinning mills' and weaving mills' operating rates were not optimistic [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data** - CF2605 closed at 14,855 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 1.36% and 15,030 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 1.18%. CY2603 closed at 20,875 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 1.46% and 21,020 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.69%. ICE US cotton 3 closed at 65.14 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.77% [1]. - CF2605 had a trading volume of 503,809 lots yesterday, a decrease of 131,926 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 1,205,941 lots, an increase of 45,691 lots. CY2603 had a trading volume of 10,324 lots yesterday, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and an open interest of 18,697 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - The number of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts was 6,824 yesterday, an increase of 706, and the effective forecast was 2,570, a decrease of 681. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 20 yesterday, an increase of 1, and the effective forecast was 17, an increase of 1 [1]. - **Spot Data** - The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,690 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 1.29%. The price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was also 15,690 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 1.29% [1]. - The price in Shandong was 15,768 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.77%. The price in Hebei was 15,742 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.90% [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,711 yuan/ton, an increase of 96 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.61%. The international cotton index M: CNCottonM was 72.54 cents/pound, an increase of 0.44 cents/pound from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.61% [1]. - The price of pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn was 21,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.19%. The arrival price of pure - cotton combed 32 - count yarn was 20,958 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.01% [1]. - **Spread Data** - The CF3 - 5 spread was - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 840 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. (2) Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot** - The trading atmosphere of domestic cotton spot was good, with active trading of spot fixed - price contracts and fair trading of partial locked - basis contracts. The fixed - price quotes of 2025/26 Nanjiang Kashgar machine - picked 3129/29B with impurities within 3.5 were mostly above 15,500 (on a conditioned weight basis), and those of the same - quality Beijiang machine - picked cotton were mostly above 15,700 (on a conditioned weight basis), for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream basis of 2025/26 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked cotton in Shandong and Henan warehouses was mostly CF05 + 1500 - 1700, and the number of low - basis offers decreased, for self - pick - up in the inland [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises** - The price center of pure - cotton yarn moved slightly upward locally, but the overall trading was light. Recently, the market of medium - and low - count yarns (including rotor - spun yarns) was weak due to poor terminal sales, and discounts were common in actual transactions, resulting in a continuous narrowing of enterprise profit margins. The demand for combed high - count yarns (40S and above) remained strong, and the sales were stable. Inland spinning mills continued to slightly reduce their operating rates to avoid inventory backlog risks and were mainly digesting previous orders. The operating rate of downstream weaving mills remained low [2]. - **US Cotton** - The ICE cotton futures rose yesterday, affected by the continuous increase in Chinese cotton prices and the possible further reduction of the cotton planting area in the US in 2026. However, the ICE cotton futures still lacked a clear fundamental upward driver, so the increase narrowed at the end of the session [2]. (3) Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market factors, with upward potential in the long - term, but there may be short - term回调 risks. The report expects US cotton to trade in a range and Zhengzhou cotton to trend upward with possible short - term corrections. For the cotton market, it is recommended to be cautious in trading strategies. The cotton yarn market has weak demand, with prices remaining stable and trading light [6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts all closed higher, with trading volume and open interest changes varying. CY01 remained flat, while CY05 and CY09 closed higher. Trading volume and open interest also changed accordingly [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B was 15,615 yuan/ton, and the price of Cot A was 74.30 cents/pound. The price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70 yuan/ton, while the price of viscose staple fiber remained unchanged [2]. - **Spread**: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads all had different degrees of change [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of December 30, the drought index in the main US cotton - producing areas continued to rise, and it is expected to worsen in Q1. As of December 19, ICE cotton futures' ON - CALL data showed a decrease in the number of un - priced contracts. As of December 27, the progress of cotton planting in Brazil in the 2025/26 season accelerated, but it was still behind the average of the past three years [4][5]. Trading Logic - The rumored reduction in cotton production in Xinjiang has been gradually confirmed. Cotton sales are progressing rapidly, and there are positive expectations for consumption. China's signing of US cotton contracts also provides upward momentum. Overall, the cotton fundamentals are strong, but there may be short - term回调 risks [6]. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend upward with possible short - term corrections [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold off on trading [9]. - **Options**: Hold off on trading [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Today, the price of pure cotton yarn remained stable, with light trading. After the New Year's Day holiday, most spinning mills have resumed production, but the downstream demand is weak, and the market's purchasing enthusiasm is low, with most buyers making small - order purchases as needed [10]. Third Part: Options - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [12]. - **Options Strategy**: Hold off on trading [14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and foreign cotton price spread, cotton basis for different months, spreads between cotton yarn and cotton futures contracts, and spreads between different cotton futures contracts [16][19][23][24].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that cotton futures prices on the ICE are experiencing fluctuations, with a recent increase noted in the trading session on January 5, where prices rose to 64.40 cents per pound, marking a 0.61% increase from the opening price of 64.30 cents per pound [1] - On January 2, the opening price for cotton futures was 64.28 cents per pound, with a closing price of 63.87 cents per pound, reflecting a decrease of 0.64% [2] - As of January 4, 2025, the cumulative public inspection of cotton reached 28.9834 million bales, totaling 6.5425 million tons, which is a year-on-year increase of 13.7% [2] Group 2 - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the cotton production in 2025 is projected to be 6.641 million tons, an increase of 477,000 tons or 7.7% compared to the previous year [2] - As of January 3, 2026, the cumulative public inspection volume of the new cotton year reached 6.4946 million tons [2]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2605 closed at 14,560 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.87%, and 14,570 yuan/ton at night with a night - time increase of 0.07%. CY2603 closed at 20,605 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.56%, and 20,575 yuan/ton at night with a night - time decrease of 0.15%. ICE US Cotton 3 closed at 64.3 cents/pound yesterday with a decrease of 0.06%. The trading volume of CF2605 was 537,129 lots, a decrease of 127,069 lots from the previous day, and the position was 1,139,140 lots, a decrease of 10,656 lots. The trading volume of CY2603 was 10,923 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the position was 20,870 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 5,212, an increase of 127 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 3,973, an increase of 211. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 19, unchanged from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 2, an increase of 17 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,416 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.78%. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.79%. The price in Shandong was 15,581 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.01%. The price in Hebei was 15,564 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.03%. The 3128B index was 15,543 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan from the previous day with a growth rate of 0.01%. The International Cotton Index: M: CNCottonM was 72.75 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous day. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,021 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous day with a decline rate of - 0.07% [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan from the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish. The basic price quotes were basically the same as the basis price quotes. The mainstream lower - selling basis of 2025/26 Northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B with impurity within 3.5 was in the range of CF05 + 900 - 1000 for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The mainstream basis of 2025/26 North - South Xinjiang machine - picked 3130/30 with impurity within 3 in Shandong and Henan warehouses was mostly in the range of CF05+1500 - 1600 for self - pick - up in the inland [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn remained stable overall, and the trading was average. Recently, the price of cotton yarn has risen slightly, but the weak downstream demand has blocked the price increase transmission, and the profit of yarn mills has been under continuous pressure. There is a game between the year - end pressure of selling goods for cash and the rising raw material cost. The sales of the cotton grey fabric market are still dull, and the grey fabric price is difficult to follow the increase. Currently, textile mills have insufficient orders, mainly small and scattered orders [2] - **US Cotton**: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures rose and then fell for the third consecutive day. Affected by the strengthening of the US dollar, the market is concerned about the US cotton export sales data to be released on Thursday [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong with upward potential in the long - term due to factors like the expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area, fast sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity. However, there may be short - term回调 risks as cotton prices rose rapidly on Friday [6][7]. - The US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish with short - term回调 risks. For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [8][9][10]. - The cotton yarn market is expected to回调 in the short - term due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is light, and the full - cotton grey fabric market has weak sales [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 95, 100, and 100 respectively; CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts decreased by 350, 95, and 160 respectively. The trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased [2]. - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B increased by 262 to 15541 yuan/ton, Cot A remained at 74.20 cents/pound, and the prices of some other varieties had different changes [2]. - **Spread**: In the cotton and cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the spreads and their changes varied; in the inter - variety spreads, the spreads and their changes also showed different trends [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - **US Retail and Inventory Data**: In October 2025, the US clothing and apparel retail sales reached $27.128 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.72% and a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative retail sales reached $264.202 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. In September 2025, the US clothing and apparel retailer inventory was $58.488 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39% and a month - on - month increase of 0.48%. In September 2025, the inventory - to - sales ratio was 2.17, a year - on - year decrease of 0.15 and a month - on - month increase of 0.03 [4]. - **Zhangjiagang Cotton Inventory**: As of December 22, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 34,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39%. The proportion of cotton from different countries changed. The inventory had a net increase, and it is expected that Brazilian cotton will continue to increase, while Australian cotton will mainly be out of storage [5]. - **National Cotton Inspection**: As of December 28, 1088 cotton processing enterprises nationwide had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.204 million tons. Among them, 1013 enterprises in Xinjiang had an inspection weight of 6.131 million tons, and 75 enterprises in the inland had an inspection weight of 73,000 tons [5]. Trading Logic - The expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area, fast sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills' production capacity support the fundamentals of cotton. China's recent signing of US cotton contracts also provides upward momentum for US cotton. The cotton price has an obvious upward trend, but there may be short - term回调 risks [6][7]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: US cotton is expected to trade in a range, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bullish with short - term回调 risks [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait - and - see [9]. - **Options**: Wait - and - see [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The Zhengzhou cotton futures are at a high level but are expected to回调 in the short - term due to weak downstream demand and sufficient supply. The trading in the pure cotton yarn market is light, and only medium - and high - count yarns are performing well. The full - cotton grey fabric market has weak sales, and small and medium - sized weaving mills are expected to have holidays during the New Year's Day [10]. Third Part: Options - **Option Contract Data**: The report provides data on option contracts such as CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC, including closing prices, price changes, implied volatility, and other indicators [12]. - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [12]. - **Option Strategy**: Wait - and - see [14]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based domestic and international cotton price spread, cotton 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01 spreads, and CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 spreads [16][19][23][24].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE3 | 月合约结算价 | 64.24 | 涨 | 23 | 点，5 | 月 | 65.49 | 涨 | 29 | 点，7 | 月 | 66.58 | 涨 | 31 | 点；成 | 交约 | 2.6 | 万手。 | | | | | | | | | | 郑棉总成交 | 452688 | 手，持仓 | 1132769 ...