分析师们指出，在2025年前六个月，黄金价格上涨了近25%。"近期的价格上涨是由在政策高度不确定 和地缘政治紧张局势加剧的情况下强劲的需求所驱动。2025年第一季度，黄金交易所交易基金（ETF） 的资金流入急剧回升，将投资需求推至2022年以来的最高水平。央行的购买继续提供支撑，反映了其储 备管理策略。" 作者们写道，预计近期强劲的需求将持续，受全球不确定性和地缘政治风险高企的支撑，"预计2025年 黄金价格将上涨约35%（同比），然后在2026年温和回落，因为一些普遍存在的不确定性开始减 退，"他们说。"尽管如此，预计到2025-26年，黄金价格仍将远高于历史常规水平——比2015-19年的平 均水平高出约150%。前景风险偏向上行，地缘政治发展预计仍将是不确定性的主要来源。" 白银也保持了其2024年的强劲势头，在2025年上半年上涨了近20%。"尽管白银价格涨幅强劲，但金银 比在2025年初进一步攀升，高于其10年平均水平，延续了其稳步上升的趋势，"他们指出。"这部分反映 了在不确定性和地缘政治紧张局势加剧的情况下，黄金作为避险资产的相对需求更强。" 展望未来，世界银行预计白银需求将保持强劲，这得益于这 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices showed a strong performance, with spot silver rising nearly 1% to $36.63 per ounce, reaching a high of $36.81 since June 18, indicating potential for further increases if it breaks above $37.50 [1] - Platinum and palladium prices surged, with palladium increasing over 8% to $1,136.68 per ounce, a new high since October 31, 2024, and platinum rising 5.1% to $1,423.26 per ounce, close to its highest level since September 2014 [1] - The rise in platinum and palladium prices is primarily driven by speculative buying, as investors believe the market is tight and prices are undervalued [1] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reported increased demand for platinum jewelry in China, exacerbating the supply-demand gap and pushing prices higher [1] - Short-term speculation may lead platinum prices to spike to $1,500, but a subsequent drop to $1,200 is anticipated, while palladium may fall to around $1,050 by mid-July [1] Economic Context - The performance of gold prices is closely linked to U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policies, with the market optimistic about potential interest rate cuts [2] - The U.S. stock market saw a broad increase, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq approaching historical highs, reflecting optimism about three expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2] - Mixed economic data presents a challenge, with Q1 GDP revised down to a contraction of 0.5% and consumer spending growth downgraded from 1.2% to 0.5%, indicating weakening economic momentum [2] - The labor market shows signs of strain, with initial jobless claims rising to the highest level since November 2021, suggesting a slowdown in hiring due to tariff policies and economic uncertainty [2] - Durable goods orders rebounded by 16.4% due to strong demand for commercial aircraft, but overall economic activity signals remain soft [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated a wait-and-see approach regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation [3] - Richmond Fed President Barkin and San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that tariff effects could justify a rate cut in the fall, but a July cut is considered premature [3] - Market expectations show a 90% probability of a September rate cut, while the probability for July is only 20%, highlighting a divergence in views [3] - The importance of PCE data is emphasized as a potential catalyst for short-term gold price fluctuations [3] - The U.S. dollar and Treasury market performance also significantly influence gold prices, with the dollar falling to its lowest levels against the euro and pound since 2021 [3] Market Trends - Current silver market conditions indicate a price consolidation phase, suggesting strategies for support long positions and resistance short positions [6] - Technical indicators for silver show K-line operating near the lower band, with support at $35.69 [7] - MACD indicators suggest a downward trend, with market activity decreasing, advising caution in trading and recommending light positions [7] - Suggested trading strategies include placing short positions near $37.00 with a stop loss at $37.38 and a take profit target between $35.90 and $335.60 [7]

Group 1: Global Economic Uncertainty - Uncertainty has become the biggest theme in the global economy this year, driven by geopolitical conflicts and trade protectionism [1][2] - Economic activity is slowing down due to high uncertainty, leading companies to hesitate in investment and consumers to reduce spending [2][3] - The impact of uncertainty is global, with fluctuations in U.S. economic data affecting GDP growth and other countries like China and Ireland increasing exports to boost their economies [2][3] Group 2: China's Economic Resilience - Despite facing uncertainties, China's economy shows strong resilience, with GDP growth expected to remain above 5% in the second half of the year [3][9] - The performance of China's economy in the coming quarters will depend on global economic trends and domestic policy measures [3][9] - The adjustment in the real estate sector and external uncertainties are key challenges for China, alongside weak indicators in PPI, CPI, and private enterprise investment [3][9] Group 3: Opportunities for Smaller Economies - Smaller countries must balance caution with policies that support business development amid trade tensions and uncertainties [4] - High tariff policies may create new trade opportunities for underdeveloped countries, but the outcomes depend on negotiation processes [4] Group 4: Financial Market Volatility - Economic uncertainty has intensified global financial market volatility, posing challenges for market participants [6] - Central banks are lowering interest rates in response to current conditions, but long-term tariff policy changes remain a core concern [6] - Maintaining flexibility and resilience is crucial for navigating unprecedented market volatility [6][7] Group 5: Globalization Trends - Despite rising protectionism and geopolitical conflicts, globalization is not expected to end, although its dynamics may change [8] - Companies need to adapt to new cross-border business opportunities and regulations as more countries engage in bilateral and multilateral trade agreements [8] - The evolving landscape of globalization requires a nuanced understanding, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia, which have seen significant changes in trade and capital flows [8]

标准普尔道琼斯指数公司固定收益和大宗商品主管Nicholas Godec表示："我们正在见证一个转型中的住 房市场。房价普遍快速上涨的时代似乎已经结束，取而代之的是一个更具选择性的环境，当地基本面因 素比全国性趋势更为重要。" 更多卖家开始挂牌出售房屋，这对许多长期住房供应紧张的美国城市来说是一种可喜的缓解。根据凯投 宏观的说法，尽管市场供应进一步宽松可能会帮助抑制价格上涨，但更有可能只是令涨幅维持在较低水 平。该公司助理经济学家Harry Chambers表示："我们的基本预期是，房价仍将继续上涨，但短期内涨 幅将放缓。" 据悉，在美国20个主要城市中，纽约的房价同比涨幅最大，为7.9%;芝加哥房价同比上涨6%，底特律房 价同比上涨5.5%。仅有两个大都市出现房价同比下跌——坦帕房价同比下跌2.2%，达拉斯房价同比下 跌0.2%。Nicholas Godec指出："可负担能力问题对此前过热的市场打击最为严重，而价格水平相对合 理、历来稳定的市场则重新吸引了投资兴趣。" 智通财经APP获悉，由于买家减少，美国4月份房价涨幅放缓。标准普尔CoreLogic Case-Shiller的数据显 示，4月全美房价指数 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - The economy in the second half of 2025 may not decline significantly, and bond yields and the stock market may rise. If the economy doesn't decline significantly, bond market funds may flow out, and stock market funds may flow in, leading to a potential shift in asset allocation from bonds to stocks [4] - The current asset price reflects the consistent expectation of high uncertainty about the future economy. The bond market has priced in "increased loose monetary policy in the second half of the year" in advance, and the stock market shows high cost - effectiveness [2] - The reason for the consistent expectation of asset prices may come from historical experience, but the economy in the second half of 2025 may be better than the market's expected decline, with GDP growth likely to be above 5% [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Current Asset Price and Market Expectations - Bond market: The bond market has priced in "increased loose monetary policy in the second half of the year" in advance, with a significantly flattened yield curve, and most bond market funds are bullish and holding positions waiting for price increases [2] - Stock market: The stock market shows high cost - effectiveness. Compared with domestic deposits and bond yields, the dividend yield is high, and compared with overseas stock markets, the domestic stock market valuation is low [2] Reasons for Consistent Expectations of Asset Prices - Since 2021, the economic rhythm has been "economic pressure, policy support, economic pressure". After policy support ends, the economy usually faces downward pressure again, causing the stock market to fall and bond yields to decline [2] - From the perspective of GDP targets, in 2023 and 2024, the GDP targets were just achieved. Given that the GDP growth rate in the first half of 2025 was relatively high, the market expects a decline in the second half [3] Economic Situation and Outlook - From 2021 to September 2024, it was similar to the "three - phase superposition" from 2011 to 2015. After continuous de - leveraging, the current social financing growth rate has fallen to match the economic target [3] - Local government implicit debt rectification occurs about once every five years. After each shock, the economy usually rebounds. After the debt - resolution plan was introduced on November 8, 2024, the economy is expected to rebound [4] - In September 2024, the economy may have reached a double inflection point. In the second half of 2025, it may show "stable social financing and stable economy", with GDP growth likely to be above 5%, better than the market's expected decline [4] Asset Allocation Outlook - Bond market: If the economy doesn't decline significantly in the second half of the year, bond market funds may gradually flow out, similar to the situations in 2009 and 2020. The rhythm may be "stock market rise - bond yield lagged rise - capital interest rate rise last" [4][5] - Stock market: If the economy doesn't decline significantly in the second half of the year, off - market funds will gradually enter the stock market [5]

Table_First|Table_Summary 华福证券 固定收益点评 2025 年 6 月 20 日 美联储为什么难降息 总统特朗普已数次"喊话"降息，但25年已过半仍未迎来年内首次降息，在相较理想 的通胀数据支撑下，美联储为什么仍如此难下降息决定？通过解读本次议息会议，我 们认为站在美联储角度，incoming data固然是重要决策，但evolving outlook可能 更为重要。目前关税可能引发的通胀仍未在数据层面被观察到，进口商主要提供的是 关税政策前囤积的库存商品，无法反应最终会由供应链上哪个环节承担主要关税。据 联储预测，通胀升温可能会于夏季出现，同时，威尔也反复提及目前就业市场的稳定 提供给美联储继续观察的机会，叠加关税政策还未敲定，因此，按兵不动的决策目前 难以被改变。 有关何时能开启降息，我们认为仍会落于此三种情形：①关税明确性的轻落地，很可 能是市场此前所预期的10%以内的关税，会给予联储较为明确的关税不会持续性产生 通胀的信号。②关税落地虽略高于预期，但在较长一段时间内，通胀依旧能维持稳定 甚至下行。 ③失业率等关键指标持续性落入衰退区间，引发衰退式降息。 ➢ 票委决议与预期 美 ...

英国央行官员Lombardelli：英国经济面临不确定性，这使得央行按兵不动。 ...

英国央行：将继续对经济和地缘政治环境中日益增加的不确定性保持高度敏感。 ...

鲍威尔：经济不确定性已经回落，但仍然偏高。 ...

Group 1 - Retail sales in the U.S. fell by 0.9% month-on-month in May, marking the largest decline of the year and the second consecutive drop since April [1] - The decline in retail sales was primarily driven by the automotive sector, indicating that consumers are cutting back on spending due to concerns over tariff policies and personal financial situations [1] - Out of 13 categories covered in the report, 7 experienced a decline in sales, particularly in building materials, gasoline, and motor vehicle sales, which had previously seen a surge due to pre-tariff stockpiling [1] Group 2 - Consumer spending in restaurants and bars faced its largest drop since the beginning of 2023, reflecting reduced confidence among consumers [1] - The confidence of U.S. home builders unexpectedly fell to a two-and-a-half-year low in June, with the housing market index dropping from 34 to 32, indicating high inventory levels and potential buyers waiting for more reasonable prices [1] - The New York Fed reported that manufacturing activity in the state unexpectedly contracted in June, with the overall business conditions index declining nearly 7 points to -16, remaining in contraction for the fourth consecutive month [1]