这一切都发生在一个充满挑战的时刻。投资者不仅要应对美国政府停摆造成的经济数据荒，而且现有的指标也显示劳动力市 场疲软，通胀持续高企。美联储正被严重政治化，特朗普政府在抨击美联储独立性的同时，还准备提名明年接替鲍威尔的人 选。 鹰派和鸽派 由19名成员组成的委员会在任何时候都会有12名有投票权的成员，其中包括美联储理事和11家地区联储总裁。 今日 Ultima Markets 为您带来了美联储内部分歧与货币政策路径的深度解析。关键词：美联储分歧、鲍威尔领导力、双向异 议、降息政策、鹰鸽博弈、货币政策路径、经济不确定性 简介：聚焦美联储降息决策中的内部分化态势，解析鲍威尔共识领导力面临的挑战，探讨鹰鸽博弈与经济不确定性对后续利 率政策的影响，助您把握美联储货币政策调整中的市场预期与趋势变化。 随着经济不确定性迷雾日趋浓厚，美联储19人货币政策制定委员会内部的分歧和异议也在加深，这对主席鲍威尔建立共识的 能力提出了终极考验。 美联储上周的降息决定符合市场预期，但这次会议却具有历史意义。美联储以10票赞成、两票反对的结果将指标利率区间下 调25个基点，这是自1990年以来，第三次在拥有投票权的决策者中同时出现双向异议 ...

Core Insights - The sales of corrugated boxes in the U.S. continue to weaken, raising concerns about a disappointing holiday shopping season this year [1] - The third quarter saw the lowest shipment volume of corrugated boxes since 2015, continuing a trend of weakness from the second quarter [1][4] - Major companies in the packaging sector have warned that economic uncertainty is impacting retail and consumer spending [1] Industry Overview - Corrugated boxes are crucial packaging materials for food, daily necessities, and e-commerce shipping, often seen as a leading indicator of retail demand [4] - Typically, October sees a surge in box orders for retailers to stock up for the holiday season, but this year is notably sluggish [4] - A media survey indicated that most box factories reported October orders as "flat or below normal levels" [4] Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators - The U.S. consumer confidence index has dropped to a five-month low, and manufacturing activity has contracted for eight consecutive months [4] - Thomas Hassfurther, President of Packaging Corporation of America, noted a lack of economic momentum and highlighted ongoing trade uncertainties affecting business [4] Company Performance - Smurfit Westrock reported an 8.7% year-over-year decline in box volume in North America for the third quarter, leading to a stock price drop of over 12%, marking the lowest closing price since its listing in July 2024 [4] - International Paper lowered its net sales forecast for this year and 2027, with a nearly 13% drop in stock price following the announcement [5] - CEO Andy Silvernail of International Paper projected a 1% to 1.5% decline in corrugated box shipments for 2024, attributing this to trade uncertainties, weak consumer confidence, and a sluggish real estate market [5] Market Outlook - Industry experts believe that the weak demand for corrugated boxes reflects a lack of manufacturing and retail restocking activity, suggesting that this year's holiday shopping season may fall short of previous years [5] - E-commerce, department stores, and durable goods sectors are facing heightened operational uncertainties [5]

来源：VOGUE 《穿普拉达的女王1》，拍摄时间约为2005年 《穿普拉达的女王2》，2025 于是，我们开始反思：这真的是审美的"降级"吗，还是背后潜藏着更深层的社会反思？ 事实上，安迪的服装风格是有变化的前提的。 在第一部，讲述的是新闻系的女生安迪误打误撞地得到了许多女生梦寐以求的工作——在纽约最著名的 杂志《Runway》担任主编助理。于是，她从一个不会拼写奢侈品牌的女孩，逐渐蜕变成一个真正的时 装编辑。 她经历了从璀璨的《Runway》时装编辑，到最后离职出走，再经由米兰达的推荐，成为纪实的 《Mirror》新闻记者，安迪的穿搭变化似乎与她身份的转变息息相关，而早在第一部的结尾，安迪就已 经用更加舒适的纪实编辑的穿搭，对"曾经精致的自己"进行告别——毕竟职业身份和个人经历的改变， 都会影响她的外在表达。 《穿普拉达的女王1》，影片最后安迪的造型已经从"精致"变得"率性" 不过路透里，安迪又拎起了《Runway》的衣服防尘袋，至于她是否会回到《Runway》，与Miranda在 第二部产生更多交集，倒挺让人期待。 第二部的剧情介绍里，也提到《Runway》杂志财务状况受影响，米兰达的事业开始走下坡路，相 ...

Group 1 - Wall Street is facing a pivotal week characterized by economic uncertainty and policy ambiguity, which may significantly influence market direction [1]

Core Points - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent speech maintained a "hawkish hold" stance, indicating a commitment to high interest rates without signaling an acceleration in tightening measures [2][3] Summary by Sections Inflation Concerns - Powell reiterated that despite a significant decline from peak inflation levels, recent data suggests a stagnation in the downward trend, with inflation still too high and the final push to the 2% target being particularly challenging [3] Interest Rate Outlook - He emphasized the need for patience regarding interest rate cuts, stating that the Fed will only consider lowering rates once there is greater confidence in inflation returning to the 2% target, dispelling market hopes for imminent rate cuts [3] - Future policy decisions will be entirely data-dependent, particularly on inflation, employment, and economic growth metrics, with no pre-set path [3] Potential for Further Rate Hikes - Although not the baseline scenario, Powell indicated that if inflation pressures accelerate again, the Fed is prepared to raise rates further, leaving open the possibility for additional tightening [3] Impact on Gold Market - Powell's remarks created a "mixed impact" on the gold market, contributing to current price fluctuations [4] Bearish Factors for Gold - The expectation of "higher for longer" interest rates due to Powell's firm stance suggests a prolonged high-rate environment, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is a non-yielding asset, thus suppressing gold's upward momentum [5] - The hawkish tone supported the US dollar, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, which could dampen demand [6] Bullish Factors for Gold - Acknowledgment of persistent inflation and a data-dependent approach implies economic uncertainty, leading to continued demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset amid fears that prolonged high rates could eventually harm the economy [7] - Powell's lack of strong hints towards immediate rate hikes was interpreted as a sign that the most hawkish period may be over, alleviating some of the pressure on gold as long as rates do not increase [7] Overall Conclusion - Powell's speech established a "high-pressure ceiling" for the gold market, eliminating expectations for early rate cuts while simultaneously providing support through concerns about economic risks and uncertainties, preventing significant declines in gold prices [8] - The gold market is likely to experience a period of high-level fluctuations, with direction dependent on forthcoming key economic data and clearer policy signals from Fed officials [8] Trading Strategies - Aggressive traders are advised to enter positions if gold prices stabilize around 3950-3955, with a stop loss below 3940 and targets set at 3980 and 4000 [9] - Conservative traders should wait for a clear breakout above 3970 before entering long positions, with a stop loss below 3955 and targets in the 3985-4000 range [9] - For short positions, if gold fails to break through the 3965-3970 range multiple times, a light short position may be considered with a stop loss above 3980 and targets at 3945 and 3930 [9]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are facing downward pressure following a week of significant sell-offs, with New York gold futures dropping below $4000 per ounce, indicating potential further declines in the short term [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - After a period of consolidation, international gold prices rose from around $3300 per ounce to over $4000, reaching a historical high of $4381.21 on October 20, driven by geopolitical changes, global economic uncertainty, Federal Reserve rate cuts, and increased central bank gold purchases [2]. - The most actively traded December gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell approximately 2.9% to close at $4019.70 [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced short-term driving factors, profit-taking by investors following previous price increases, alleviated concerns over international trade tensions, and a rise in investor risk appetite [1]. - Analysts from Citigroup suggest that expectations of trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries, along with the potential resolution of the U.S. government shutdown, may exert downward pressure on gold prices, with a possibility of falling back to $3800 within the next three months [1]. - John Reed from the World Gold Council noted that demand for gold from central banks has weakened compared to previous levels, indicating that a deeper market adjustment could provide some breathing space for professional traders [1].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant decline in gold and silver prices due to improved market risk appetite following preliminary consensus on key economic issues between China and the U.S. [1] - The most actively traded December 2025 gold futures price dropped by $129.9, closing at $3997 per ounce, marking a decline of 3.15% [1]. - Silver futures for December delivery fell by $1.58, closing at $46.830 per ounce, with a decrease of 3.26% [2]. Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting is expected to result in a second consecutive 25 basis point rate cut to support the unstable job market, although this expectation may have already been priced in [1]. - Despite a shortage of physical gold, analysts suggest that the adjustment in the gold market may continue for some time due to weakened short-term driving factors [1]. - Some analysts believe that ongoing economic uncertainty will be the primary factor supporting gold prices, with expectations that gold could reach $5000 per ounce next year [1]. Group 3 - U.S. Treasury Secretary confirmed a shortlist of five candidates to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with a decision expected from President Trump by the end of the year [2].

Core Insights - The annual average price of gold is projected to exceed $4,000 per ounce for the first time in 2026, with an average forecast of $4,275, significantly up from $3,400 predicted in July [1][3] - Gold prices have surged over 50% this year, reaching a record high of $4,381.58, marking the best performance since 1979 [3][14] - Analysts have also raised silver price forecasts, expecting an average of $38.45 per ounce in 2025 and $50 in 2026, up from previous estimates [14] Gold Market Dynamics - The current economic climate, characterized by inflation concerns, high interest rates, and a weaker US dollar, has driven investors towards gold as a safe haven [9][12] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts are expected to make gold more attractive, as lower Treasury yields enhance its appeal [11] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a key portfolio asset rather than a speculative investment, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [12] Silver Market Insights - Silver has experienced a 65% increase this year, reaching an all-time high of $54.47, driven by strong demand in solar technology, electric vehicles, and AI data centers [15] - Analysts predict that silver will continue to face structural supply deficits, supporting its price growth into 2026 [15][16] - Silver is seen as a more affordable alternative to gold, maintaining its demand among investors [16]

Core Insights - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported a 1.5% month-over-month increase in existing home sales for September, reaching an annualized rate of 4.06 million units, the highest level since February this year, aligning with market expectations [1] - Year-over-year, existing home sales rose significantly by 4.1%, with growth observed in the Northeast, South, and West regions, while the Midwest experienced a decline [1] Sales and Pricing Analysis - The median sales price for existing homes in September was $415,200, marking a 2.1% year-over-year increase, continuing a streak of 27 consecutive months of price growth [1] - The median price for single-family homes was $420,700, up 2.3% year-over-year, while the median price for condos and co-ops was $360,300, showing a slight decline of 0.6% [1] Market Dynamics - The inventory of homes for sale surged by 14% year-over-year to 1.55 million units, although this level remains below pre-pandemic benchmarks [1] - The median time from listing to sale increased to 33 days, compared to 31 days last month and 28 days a year ago [2] Financing Conditions - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate decreased to 6.35% in September, down from 6.59% in August, providing support to the market [2] - The typical monthly mortgage payment is now $2,556, reflecting a modest year-over-year increase of 0.6%, the smallest rise in three months [2] Buyer Behavior - First-time homebuyers accounted for 30% of sales, while cash transactions remained at 30%, and investors and second-home buyers dropped to 15% [2] - Despite improved purchasing power, potential buyers are still adopting a wait-and-see approach, as the number of signed contracts for existing homes fell by 0.7% year-over-year as of October 19 [2] Economic Outlook - NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence Yun indicated that declining interest rates and improved income conditions could provide momentum for sales in the fourth quarter, but economic uncertainties pose potential risks [2]

Core Insights - Investors are anxiously awaiting the delayed September CPI inflation report, which is the only key economic data available during this data vacuum period [1][2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the September CPI data, with Goldman Sachs predicting a month-on-month increase of 0.33% and a year-on-year increase of 3.02% [1][3] - The ongoing government shutdown has led to a lack of regular data releases, causing market tension and uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [2] Economic Data Impact - The anticipated CPI data could lead to fluctuations in long-term bond yields, with potential upward pressure if the data exceeds expectations [1][3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has declined this year, reflecting risk-averse sentiment, partly due to credit concerns related to regional banks [3] - Analysts suggest that if the 10-year Treasury yield falls below 3.75%, it may indicate doubts about the U.S. economy achieving a "soft landing" [3] Market Sentiment - The current lack of hard data has left the market in a state of anxiety, as investors are missing critical economic indicators that typically provide insights into the economic direction [2] - There is a strong potential buying interest in the bond market, driven by increasing economic uncertainty [3]