Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Turkey's inflation will decrease to 33% by the end of 2025, down from nearly 50% at the end of 2024, aligning with the Turkish Central Bank's forecast range [1] Group 1 - The report indicates that while short-term indicators show improvement, the inflation outlook still faces risks [1] - The IMF emphasizes the need for Turkey to implement deeper structural reforms to enhance productivity and reduce external vulnerabilities [1]

Group 1 - The IMF projects Turkey's inflation to decrease to 33% by the end of 2025, down from nearly 50% at the end of 2024, aligning with the central bank's forecasts [1][2] - Turkey's inflation rate fell to 32.87% in October, but remains high, prompting the central bank to adjust its year-end inflation forecast from 25%-29% to 31%-33% [2] - The IMF emphasizes the need for Turkey to tighten fiscal and monetary policies further, including raising real policy rates and delaying interest rate cuts to ensure sustained inflation decline [2][3] Group 2 - The IMF acknowledges Turkey's fiscal consolidation efforts, projecting the budget deficit to decrease from 4.7% of GDP in 2024 to 3.6% in 2023, with a slight increase to 3.7% by 2026 [2] - Structural reforms are deemed essential for Turkey to achieve higher potential growth, with the IMF highlighting the importance of enhancing productivity and reducing external vulnerabilities [1][3] - The Turkish banking system remains robust, with adequate capital and liquidity levels, and the exit from the foreign exchange-protected deposit mechanism indicates a shift towards more market-oriented macroeconomic policies [3]

Core Insights - UBS Asset Management held its annual flagship event, The Red Thread Global Investment Outlook, in Hong Kong, where the focus was on the transition from "quantity expansion" to "sustainable and innovation-driven development" as suggested by China's 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The main theme of high-quality growth is expected to drive sector rotation and valuation shifts over the next twelve months [1] - Investor sentiment is improving, with global investors, including long-term funds and hedge funds, actively participating in cornerstone investments and secondary market trading of Chinese stocks [1] Investment Trends - Currently, foreign capital is primarily entering the Chinese market through ETFs rather than actively managed funds, indicating that the market is still in a "technical repair" phase [1] - For sustained capital inflow, investors need to see ongoing structural reforms and signs of sustainable growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Slovenia's GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating a slower economic recovery than previously expected [1] Economic Growth Forecast - Slovenia's GDP is projected to grow by 0.8% in 2025, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the October forecast [1] - The growth forecast for 2026 has been lowered by 0.1 percentage points to 2.2%, with a further increase to 2.3% expected in 2027 [1] - The economy experienced a contraction in Q1 of this year but rebounded in Q2 and Q3, with an overall growth rate of 0.8% anticipated for the year [1] Inflation and Long-term Projections - If food and energy price increases slow down, inflation is expected to stabilize around 2% by 2030 [1] - Mid-term GDP growth is expected to stabilize at approximately 2.1% [1] Structural Challenges - The IMF highlights ongoing structural reform challenges, including the need for improved efficiency in the public sector and tax system [1] - Slovenia needs to find additional funding sources for pension and long-term care systems [1] - Key challenges include labor shortages, administrative barriers, enhancing the innovation environment, and providing incentives for promising businesses, necessitating increased investment to boost productivity [1]

（原标题：2026年财政法案：阿尔及利亚国民议会通过文本） 审议期间，委员会逐项听取修正案提出者的意见，讨论重点包括：减轻部分税费负担、进行有针对 性的财政调整、修改敏感预算条款，以及提升国家经济吸引力的措施。经过多轮讨论，委员会采纳了新 修正案并对部分条款进行修改，使法案更契合国家的经济和社会发展目标。文本在保持财政可持续性的 同时，更好地支持国家正在实施的结构性改革，并更加贴合公众期待，包括税制现代化、促进生产型投 资以及公共支出的合理化。 在国民议会通过后，法案将提交给国民院（Conseil de la Nation，阿国民院）进行二次审议，该程 序完成后，《2026年财政法案》将于明年初正式生效。 新闻网站Algérie 360，11月18日报道，阿尔及利亚国民议会(APN) 于2025年11月18日在议长布加利 主持的全体会议上正式通过《2026年财政法案》草案。这一通过标志着阿尔及利亚在当前经济改革加 速、财政框架需不断调整的背景下迈出的重要立法步骤。 在表决前，财政与预算委员会提交了补充报告，显示议员们围绕文本提出了12项修正建议，内容涉 及税收政策、促进增长机制以及改进公共管理绩效等领域。相关 ...

UNICEF此次人员变动是联合国机构一系列裁员和重组行动中的最新一例。11月18日，世界卫生组织表 示，到明年年中，其员工人数将减少近1/4，即超过2000个岗位。国际劳工组织也在考虑裁减多达295个 职位，并将数十名工作人员迁走，原因是该组织面临"严峻"的现金流问题。 路透社称，由于美国和欧洲主要捐助国大幅削减对外援助支出，联合国各机构正面临严峻的经费压力和 结构性改革需求。据联合国秘书长古特雷斯介绍，截至去年年底，联合国会员国拖欠会费高达7.6亿美 元。据英国《卫报》此前报道，联合国将在2026年削减超5亿美元预算，并裁减约20%的员工。 【环球时报报道 记者 周扬】联合国儿童基金会（UNICEF）19 日晚表示，因全球对外援助削减，该机 构面临20%的资金缩减，决定将至少70%的员工从纽约和日内瓦迁至成本较低的办公地点，例如罗马、 布达佩斯、伊斯坦布尔和瓦伦西亚等地。今年 5 月，UNICEF就表示，将把欧洲和中亚区域办事处与中 东和北非区域办事处合并为一个区域办事处，新总部将设在约旦安曼。 瑞士《日内瓦论坛报》19日报道称，位于日内瓦的UNICEF欧洲和中亚区域办事处或有约300个岗位被 迁出。瑞士外 ...

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised the economic growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region to 3.3% for 2025 and 3.7% for the next year [1] Economic Outlook - The IMF highlights that oil-exporting countries in the region will benefit from increased oil production, expanded public investment, and economic diversification [1] - Oil-importing countries are expected to gain from lower commodity prices, a recovering tourism sector, and increased government support [1] Structural Reforms - The IMF calls for further structural reforms in the region, including measures to expand infrastructure investment, reduce trade barriers, and improve the business environment [1] Economic Resilience - The IMF's regional director notes that Gulf oil-exporting countries are showing effective economic diversification and enhanced resilience to external shocks [1] Reconstruction Needs - Countries affected by conflicts, such as Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Libya, and Yemen, require substantial funding for economic reconstruction, estimated to be as high as $5 trillion [1] - The IMF emphasizes the importance of infrastructure development and trade integration to help these economies reintegrate into the regional economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. federal government has ended the longest shutdown in history, lasting 43 days, but the situation has exacerbated the already critical federal debt, which has surpassed $38 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and the current federal policies [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Rising U.S. National Debt - The rapid increase in U.S. national debt is attributed to two main factors: a large existing debt stock and high new deficits, leading to a "snowball effect" where new debt is issued to pay off old debt [2][4]. - Structural spending growth, particularly in social security and healthcare, coupled with slow growth in fiscal revenue, has created a mismatch between spending and income, resulting in a deficit structure [4][5]. - The rising cost of debt due to multiple interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to combat economic slowdown and inflation has further expanded the debt scale [4][5]. Group 2: Consequences of High National Debt - In the short term, high national debt will lead to sustained inflation, a loss of the highest credit rating for U.S. Treasury bonds, and increased volatility in bond yields [7][8]. - Long-term effects include erosion of budgetary space for the government, reduced fiscal flexibility during economic downturns, and increased borrowing costs due to rising risk premiums [9][10]. - The societal impact includes intergenerational debt transfer, where the current generation's debt burden will fall on future generations [9][10]. Group 3: Policy Responses and Challenges - The U.S. government has limited policy tools to address the rising debt, with current strategies focusing on increasing revenue through tariffs and reducing spending, but these measures face significant political resistance [10][12]. - Structural reforms are necessary to address the underlying issues of debt, including tax reforms and adjustments to high-spending programs like healthcare and social security [13]. - Achieving a bipartisan consensus on long-term fiscal responsibility remains a significant challenge due to increasing political polarization [13].

Core Insights - Mauritania's government has reached a staff-level agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding the fifth economic program review under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), as well as the fourth review under the Resilience and Sustainability Fund (RSF) [1] Group 1: Reform Achievements - Mauritania has made significant progress in fiscal discipline, governance capacity, and climate resilience, with all fiscal discipline targets achieved and improvements in monetary and exchange rate policy frameworks [2] - Following the IMF Executive Board's approval, Mauritania will receive 6.44 million Special Drawing Rights (approximately $8.7 million) and an additional 59.44 million Special Drawing Rights (approximately $80.6 million) under the RSF framework [2] Group 2: Economic Performance - Mauritania's economy remains strong, with a projected GDP growth rate of 6.3% in 2024 and stabilization at 4.2% in 2025, driven by the recovery in mining sectors such as gold and iron ore, as well as growth in agriculture and fisheries [3] - Inflation is expected to remain below 2% in 2025 due to prudent monetary policy, and international foreign exchange reserves have surpassed $1.46 billion, providing a substantial buffer against external risks [3] - The medium-term outlook indicates an average annual growth rate of around 5% for Mauritania's economy from 2026 to 2029 [3] Group 3: Structural Reforms - Structural reforms are a key focus of the discussions, with an emphasis on accelerating reforms in anti-corruption and governance, including the establishment of a national anti-corruption agency and the implementation of the Asset and Interest Declaration Law to enhance government transparency and rule of law [4] - Climate resilience initiatives will be introduced under the RSF framework, including an automatic fuel pricing mechanism and a "climate contribution" system to address climate change and free up fiscal space [4] - The central bank has implemented a national financial inclusion strategy to promote electronic payments and system interoperability, facilitating financing opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises and vulnerable groups [4] - The IMF representative praised Mauritania's progress in public finance, exchange rate flexibility, and governance systems, reaffirming the IMF's continued support for consolidating economic reform achievements [4]

Core Points - South Africa's Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced a downward revision of the country's 2025 economic growth forecast to 1.2%, influenced by domestic and international factors such as trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The new inflation target has been set at 3% with a 1% fluctuation range, replacing the previous target of 3% to 6%, to better respond to unexpected inflation shocks [1] - The government aims to stabilize public debt at 77.9% of GDP by the 2025/26 fiscal year, marking the first time since the 2008 financial crisis that public debt as a percentage of GDP will not increase [1] Economic Strategy - Structural reforms, particularly in the energy and logistics sectors, are deemed crucial for enhancing economic growth [2] - The strategy for achieving faster growth and healthier finances is based on four pillars: maintaining macroeconomic stability, implementing structural reforms, enhancing national capacity, and supporting infrastructure development [2]