（声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 出品丨21财经客户端 21世纪经济报道 21君荐读 道指再创新高，美股科技股反弹，甲骨文飙涨9%，金银、原油大涨 国常会部署稳投资，信号明确决心很大 王健林25亿极限自救 SFC 2 悦 读 · 智能 权 威 . r7 o 扫码点击下载 记 者丨张嘉钰 李域 编辑丨黎雨桐 2月10日开盘，贵金属全线下跌，现货黄金一度跌破5000美元，截至7:30，跌幅收窄日内下跌 0.85%。现货白银跌超2%，报81.6美元/盎司。 | | 国际贵金属 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 5015.627 | -43.183 | -0.85% | 16.15% | | 伦敦银现 | 81.628 | -1.745 | -2.09% | 14.04% | | COMEX黄金 | 5045.6d | -33.8 | -0.67% | 15.68% | | COMEX白银 | 81.510d | -0.724 | -0.88% | 14.8 ...

进入2026年，全球资本市场正在上演一出颇具讽刺意味的反转剧。在过去长达二十年的时间里，"新兴市场"这个词在投资圈里几乎成了"永远 的明日之星"的代名词。人们总是预言它们将要崛起，却一次次看着它们在发达经济体的阴影下徘徊。投资者们原本指望从中等收入国家的追 赶效应中获得超额回报，现实却往往是短暂的繁荣之后紧接着漫长的停滞。 然而，在MSCI新兴市场指数在2025年以34%的惊人涨幅碾压发达市场的21%，并在2026年开年短短一个月内再涨9%之后，即便是最顽固的怀 疑论者也不得不重新审视这片曾经的荒原。 在被华尔街冷落了整整二十年后，新兴市场似乎终于迎来了属于自己的高光时刻。 IMF此前曾预测，2026年，新兴市场的产出增长将比发达经济体高出2.4个百分点。这种实打实的增长差，配合上比美国高收益债券更具吸引 力的本币债券回报率，共同构成了新兴市场最坚实的护城河。从这个意义上讲，虽然如今投资新兴市场依然存在风险，但这种风险已经不再是 当年的豪赌了，而更像是一种基于基本面的理性配置。 在资本的眼中，除了成长性，性价比永远是王道。而这也正是当下新兴市场最犀利的武器，它够便宜。 从墨西哥的比索到马来西亚的林吉特，一众货 ...

2026/2/4 下午4:06 研究发布：宏观及债市展望-美联储政策回归中性 中资海外债发行边际回暖 - CSPI Ratings RATING METHODOLOGREPROFILE F> LOGOUT HOME RATINGS PUBLICATIONS PRODUCTS & SERVICES ABOUT US EVENTS Home > Publications 研究发布：宏观及债市展望-美联储政策回归中性 中资海外债发行边际回 暖 03 Feb 2026 © Preview J. Download 2026年2月3日，中国香港。中证鹏元国际今天发布了一篇题为"宏观及债市展望-美联储政策回归中性 中 资海外债发行边际回暖"的研究报告。 本报告的主要内容如下： 美联储政策路径回归中性,消费分化,通胀黏性,就业降温 受通胀黏性与就业降温影响,2026年美联储的政策调整将更趋中性。2025年美国CPI在2%上方形成黏性 区间,高收入群体凭借资产与融资优势支撑消费,服务类通胀展现黏性。展望2026年,美国劳动力市场 预计将进一步降温,但企业更倾向于放缓招聘而非集中裁员,有助于控制下行风险并限制失业率的上升。 结构 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25% to 4065 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.33% [1] - The total market turnover was 2.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 30.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with over 2700 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - The mining and oil sectors saw gains, with stocks like Tongyuan Petroleum and Zhun Oil reaching their daily limit [1] - The fluorochemical sector also performed well, with Tianji Co. hitting the daily limit [1] - Lithium mining and battery sectors were active, with Enjie Co. reaching the daily limit [1] - Conversely, the liquor sector faced declines, with Huangtai Liquor hitting the daily limit down, and Moutai falling by 2.57% [1] - Other sectors such as commercial retail and tourism also saw declines, with Dalian Shengya dropping over 8% [1] Alibaba Concept Stocks - Alibaba concept stocks collectively surged, with Data Port hitting the daily limit and several other stocks like Borui Data and Lijun Thermal Energy rising over 5% [2] - The rise was attributed to the launch of a promotional event by Qianwen, which topped the Apple App Store free application chart [2] Precious Metals - International precious metal prices rebounded, with spot gold rising nearly 1% and silver increasing over 2% [4] - Analysts noted that the current upward trend in gold prices is driven by liquidity expectations and ongoing geopolitical conflicts providing safe-haven demand [5] - The outlook for the metal prices is optimistic, with potential for new highs due to a combination of demand recovery and rigid supply [5] Economic Outlook - Analysts predict a potential recovery in the economy over the next 6-12 months, which could boost market demand and support metal prices [5] - The macroeconomic outlook includes expectations for a "tight then loose" monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, a weaker dollar, and a strengthening of the RMB [6] - The stock market is anticipated to have upward potential, with liquidity being a significant driver of market changes [6]

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of gold prices in 2026 is expected to be characterized by high volatility and structural upward movement, with a baseline scenario maintaining a ±5% fluctuation range and an optimistic scenario potentially seeing a 15%-30% increase, surpassing $6000 per ounce [1][2]. Group 1: Price Predictions - In the baseline scenario, gold prices are projected to fluctuate within a ±5% range due to stable economic conditions and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. - In an optimistic scenario, escalating geopolitical conflicts or significant economic slowdowns could lead to gold prices rising by 15%-30%, potentially exceeding $6000 per ounce [2]. - Various institutions have set target prices for gold, with UBS raising its target to $6200 per ounce, Goldman Sachs setting a year-end target of $5400 per ounce, and JPMorgan forecasting a long-term price of $8000-$8500 [2]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are identified as a key driver for the upward movement of gold prices in 2026, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts totaling 50-75 basis points throughout the year [4]. - Central bank gold purchases are expected to provide strong support for gold prices, with a projected monthly average purchase of 60-70 tons in 2026, driven by emerging market central banks seeking to diversify their reserves [5]. - The supply-demand imbalance is anticipated to widen, with a projected supply-demand gap of 320 tons in 2026, further supporting the upward trend in gold prices [6]. Group 3: Currency and Geopolitical Factors - The weakening trend of the US dollar is expected to positively impact gold prices, with a projected decline of approximately 3% in 2026, following a 9.3%-9.7% drop in 2025 [8]. - Geopolitical uncertainties are likely to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with ongoing global conflicts and political events potentially driving increased investment in gold [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a long-term holding strategy, focusing on central bank purchases and the weakening of the US dollar while ignoring short-term price fluctuations [13]. - For short-term traders, monitoring geopolitical developments and Federal Reserve policies is crucial, with specific attention to support and resistance levels in gold prices [13]. - The choice between physical gold and gold ETFs should be based on individual investment needs, with physical gold being suitable for long-term holders and gold ETFs being more accessible for average investors [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of nickel and stainless steel futures both showed upward trends on February 4, 2026, with nickel experiencing a significant rebound and stainless steel showing a milder upward movement. Due to large price fluctuations and the approaching Spring Festival, it is recommended to mainly adopt range trading strategies. However, considering the ongoing supply disruptions of nickel ore, which support the cost side, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is substantial [1][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 135,400 yuan/ton and closed at 137,680 yuan/ton, a change of 3.78% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 481,566 (-181,798) lots, and the open interest was 99,453 (-2,047) lots. The contract showed a strong rebound, maintaining a high - level operation with a significant upward shift in the price center. The previous panic - driven decline led to an oversold situation, creating a need for technical repair. Additionally, the expectation of domestic liquidity easing and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the London nickel market, driving the Shanghai nickel rebound through the linkage of domestic and foreign markets [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The domestic nickel ore market showed a differentiated consolidation trend. Affected by the price correction of downstream products, the CIF quotes in the domestic market slightly declined, and the trading atmosphere was dull. Philippine mines maintained firm quotes and mainly executed previous orders. However, due to limited downstream acceptance, high - priced resources had difficulty in trading, and buyers generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in a slight increase in the actual bargaining space and a decline in CIF prices. In Indonesia, the market price remained stable, and the new benchmark price and premium for the first half of February were still in effect. The market was in an adaptation and wait - and - see period for the new price system, with no new policies or trading information to guide, and overall trading activities were calm [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 145,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was poor, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands mostly increased. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 150 yuan/ton to 9,400 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 48,072 (-108) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 286,314 (786) tons [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly adopt range trading strategies, but considering the ongoing supply disruptions of nickel ore, which support the cost side, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is substantial [3]. - **Single - side**: Mainly range trading [4]. - **Inter - period**: None [4]. - **Inter - variety**: None [4]. - **Futures - spot**: None [4]. - **Options**: None [4]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 4, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2603 opened at 13,620 yuan/ton and closed at 13,825 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 224,029 (+4,598) lots, and the open interest was 59,820 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a fluctuating upward trend, achieving a recovery driven by Shanghai nickel and cost support. The trading volume moderately increased, and the open interest slightly increased. Overall, it was relatively strong, but the rhythm was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel. The previous continuous decline created a need for technical repair. Additionally, the expectation of domestic liquidity easing and the weakening of the US dollar led to a resonance of domestic and foreign market sentiments, driving the stainless steel rebound [4]. - **Spot**: Trading was light but improved compared to the previous period, and pre - festival restocking orders increased. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,100 (+100) yuan/ton, the price in the Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton, and the premium of 304/2B was 310 to 510 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,030.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - It is recommended to mainly adopt range trading strategies, but considering the ongoing supply disruptions of nickel ore, which support the cost side, one can consider buying on dips if the price correction is substantial [5]. - **Single - side**: Mainly range trading [5]. - **Inter - period**: None [5]. - **Inter - variety**: None [5]. - **Futures - spot**: None [5]. - **Options**: None [5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a "tightening then loosening" monetary policy approach, with a potential for aggressive rate cuts in the second half of the year if Powell maintains a hawkish stance during his term [2][13] - The US dollar is anticipated to weaken further, especially as the dollar index has fallen below 97, driven by a loose monetary policy environment and increased global demand for safety [2][14] Group 2 - The RMB exchange rate is entering a mid-term appreciation channel, with a potential to break above 6.8, aligning with current export growth trends [3][19] - The appreciation of the RMB is seen as a rebalancing of external and internal demand, with policy shifts indicating a growing importance of domestic demand [4][21] Group 3 - Service consumption is expected to grow, with policy support shifting towards the service sector, reflecting a recovery in consumer sentiment post-pandemic [5][22] - CPI is projected to show stronger elasticity compared to PPI, driven by a potential recovery in pork prices and sticky core CPI, particularly in service inflation [6][27] Group 4 - The central bank is likely to adopt a cautious approach to domestic monetary policy easing, focusing on structural tools to provide low-cost funding to support specific sectors [8][29] - The stock market is expected to reach new highs due to ample liquidity and a rebound in profit growth, despite the current economic challenges [9][31] Group 5 - The technology sector is predicted to maintain its momentum, supported by liquidity and a favorable investment environment, particularly in AI companies [10][34] - Gold prices are expected to continue rising, bolstered by a weakening dollar and increased central bank purchases of gold [11][36]

最近刷手机的朋友大概率刷到了人民币升值的消息，可不少人看着"6.9533""上调75个基点"这些数字，心里直犯嘀咕："这到底啥意思？我手里的钱是不是真 的变值钱了？" 不管是计划春节出境旅游的小夫妻、孩子要出国留学的家长，还是喜欢海淘的年轻人，甚至是手里有理财的普通老百姓，都在悄悄关心这事 儿。 毕竟汇率这东西看着抽象，实则和咱的钱包息息相关——换外币能多换点、买进口货能省点、就连股市基金都可能跟着受影响。 2月4日，中国外汇交易中心最新数据显示，人民币兑美元汇率中间价报6.9533，较前一交易日上调75个基点，一举升破6.96关键关口，创下2023年5月以来的 强势表现。 一、先搞懂：75点跳涨意味着啥？换钱能省多少钱？ 可能有人觉得"上调75个基点"没啥概念，咱先把账算明白，这可是真金白银的差别！2月4日人民币兑美元中间价是6.9533，也就是说1美元能换6.9533元人民 币，而前一天还是6.9608，看似不起眼的0.0075的变化，换钱时差别可不小。 咱举几个最常见的例子： - 计划去美国旅游的朋友，换1万美元零花钱，按前一天的汇率得花69608元，2月4日换只需要69533元，直接省了75元；要是换 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fidelity International's fund manager George Efstathopoulos has expressed optimism about gold's future despite recent price declines, indicating a potential buying opportunity if prices drop further by 5% to 7% [1][5] Group 1: Market Actions and Trends - Efstathopoulos reduced his gold exposure from approximately 5% to about 3% prior to a significant drop in gold prices, successfully locking in profits [3][7] - The recent decline in gold prices was influenced by market concerns regarding the potential nomination of Kevin Warsh, perceived as a hawkish candidate for the Federal Reserve [3][7] - Following a historic drop, gold prices rebounded, with a 2.8% increase on Wednesday, surpassing $5,080 per ounce, after a previous day’s increase of over 6% [3][7] Group 2: Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Efstathopoulos highlighted persistent inflation and a weakening dollar as key drivers that could support gold prices in the medium term [3][7] - A survey by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) indicated that over 50% of central banks plan to increase their reserves, which is expected to boost demand for gold as a hedge [4][8] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Efstathopoulos's fund achieved a 20% return last year, primarily gaining gold exposure through ETFs and ETCs, and occasionally through gold mining stocks [4][8] - The fund manager plans to increase gold's allocation back to around 5% in the portfolio, emphasizing the importance of gold for diversification and portfolio stability [4][8]

在近期全球黄金市场剧烈波动的背景下，管理着约30亿美元资产的富达国际(Fidelity International)基金经理乔治.埃夫斯塔索普洛斯(George Efstathopoulos)， 在这种贵金属遭遇四十年来最大跌幅的几天前，大幅减持了黄金持仓。如今，他正打算再度买入。 尽管由于对货币贬值、美联储独立性以及地缘政治紧张局势的担忧引发避险需求，推动金价升至历史新高，但这位基金经理仍选择抛售，使其成功规避了由 于市场极度超买而引发的剧烈调整。 周三，黄金现货价格一度攀升2.8%至每盎司5080美元上方，此前一个交易日跳涨超过6%。该金属于1月29日触及每盎司5595.47美元的历史新高。由于在历 史性价格暴跌之后出现了逢低买入者，这种贵金属已连续两天反弹。 "若黄金市场再度出现5%至7%的回调，我将大举买入，"埃夫斯塔西奥普洛斯周二接受采访时表示，"当前市场已挤出大量泡沫，黄金中期结构性上涨趋势依 然稳固。 埃夫斯塔西奥普洛斯在富达国际协助管理规模约30亿美元的收益与增长策略组合。他指出，此前推动金价创历史新高的核心因素仍未消退。"通胀持续呈现 顽固态势，"他分析道，并补充称美元走弱是另一关键驱动因素 ...