就降息节奏，高盛认为继9月之后，美联储将在今年10月和12月的会议上各降息一次，随后在2026年第 一季度末及第二季度末分别再次降息，最终使利率水平达到3.0%-3.25%，这一预期与市场目前的共识基 本一致。慕天辉表示，更为宽松的货币政策和持续增长的背景将有利于股票市场，高盛在亚洲地区的观 点是超配中国市场。 高盛9月19日举办亚太及中国资本市场动态媒体交流会。会上，高盛首席亚太股票策略分析师慕天辉 （Timothy Moe）与首席中国股票策略分析师刘劲津预计美联储将继续降息，并表示美元走弱将为亚洲 股市创造有利环境，高盛继续超配中国股票。 上证报中国证券网讯（年悦 记者 汤立斌）高盛9月19日举办亚太及中国资本市场动态媒体交流会。会 上，高盛首席亚太股票策略分析师慕天辉（Timothy Moe）与首席中国股票策略分析师刘劲津预计美联 储将继续降息，并表示美元走弱将为亚洲股市创造有利环境，高盛继续超配中国股票。 刘劲津介绍了目前高盛对中国股票市场的看法。他认为，A股市场目前的估值仍然具有支撑性，散户情 绪明显改善，且随着"反内卷"政策持续推进，未来几年企业盈利有望每年提高大约2%。行业方面，高 盛过去两个月 ...

Core Insights - The report from Daiwa emphasizes that the weakening of the US dollar has a more significant impact on emerging markets, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks than potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - A "soft landing" for the US economy would be beneficial for emerging market equities, while weak US economic data could prolong dollar weakness, increasing demand for currency hedging and enhancing liquidity support for emerging markets and the Chinese market by the end of 2025 [1] Market Conditions - The Asian market is currently in a risk-on environment, with the MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) index rising approximately 10% since July [1] - Key drivers for this market performance include easing geopolitical risks, favorable regional policies, and market expectations regarding the potential resumption of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [1]

今日周五(9月19日)亚盘时段，国际白银目前交投于41.95一线上方，今日开盘于41.78美元/盎司，截至发稿，国际白银暂 报42.00美元/盎司，上涨0.50%，最高触及42.16美元/盎司，最低下探41.62美元/盎司，目前来看，国际白银盘内短线偏 向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 美联储在9月会议上宣布降息25个基点，为去年12月以来的首次，同时暗示年内将进一步降息。较低的利率降低了持有 无收益资产的机会成本，从而为银价提供支撑。 在需求端，光伏产业的快速发展继续推高对白银的需求。作为光伏产业核心材料，白银消费量保持高位。 市场调查显示，沙特主权财富基金近期持续增持银ETF，显示大型机构投资者对贵金属的长期价值保持信心。同时，美 元走弱趋势也增强了大宗商品的整体吸引力。 另一方面，部分地缘政治风险的缓解限制了银价的避险溢价。随着俄乌局势有所缓和，避险情绪减弱可能限制银价进一 步突破。 美国总统特朗普在与英国首相基尔·斯塔默表示，俄乌冲突的解决比预期更复杂，但他对近期取得积极进展仍抱有希 望。 市场分析师指出："虽然全球需求和美元走弱为银价提供了坚实支撑，但在地缘紧张情绪降温的情况下，银价的上涨空 间可能受到限 ...

当地时间9月17日，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）公布最新利率决议，降息25个基点，将联邦基 金利率目标区间从4.25%—4.5%降至4.00%—4.25%，符合市场预期，这是美联储今年以来的首次降 息。 美联储声明指出，近期指标显示，上半年经济活动增长放缓。就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升但仍处于 低位。通胀率有所上升，且仍处于略高水平。 最新公布的点阵图显示，预计今年年内还将再降息两次（各25个基点），比6月的预测多出一次。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，降息50个基点未获广泛支持，他认为无需迅速调整利率，可以把今天的举动看 作是风险管理式的降息。 美联储公布利率决议后，市场反应剧烈，美股三大指数短线冲高后迅速跳水，截至收盘，道指涨 0.57%，报46018.3点；标普500指数跌0.1%，报6600.3点；纳斯达克指数跌0.33%，报22261.3点。 FOMC强调，委员会致力于在更长时期内实现"最大就业"和"2%通胀"的目标。当前经济前景的不确定性 依然较高。委员会密切关注其"双重使命"两方面的风险，并判断就业面临的下行风险有所上升。 本次并未像上次那样重申：美国的失业率仍低、劳动力市场稳健、通胀依旧略为高企 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market continues to rise, while the AH premium has reached a phase low, leading to a divergence in opinions regarding the overvaluation of Hong Kong stocks [1] - Some industry insiders believe that the current AH premium is at a reasonable level based on the existing exchange rate and market environment, with potential for further narrowing of the AH premium amid a mid-term trend of RMB appreciation and USD weakening [1] - Hong Kong assets may benefit from abundant global liquidity and the return of foreign capital, especially if the US further cuts interest rates to improve global liquidity and AI companies continue to deliver strong performance [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, leading to a weakening of the US dollar, with the dollar index dropping below 97, marking a new low since July 7 [1][3] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will accelerate its rate cuts, with expectations of four consecutive 25 basis point cuts in September, October, December, and January, aiming for a target range of approximately 3.375% by January [2][3] - The shift in rate cut expectations is based on recent soft inflation and employment data, providing the Fed with the policy space to move towards a neutral interest rate level [2][3] Group 2: Currency Exchange Rates - The Chinese yuan has been appreciating against the US dollar, with the onshore yuan reaching a high of 7.1047 and the offshore yuan breaking the 7.1 mark, reaching 7.09756 [3][4] - Analysts attribute the yuan's strength to the anticipated Fed rate cuts and a strong domestic stock market, which has led to increased foreign capital inflows [4][5] - The yuan's appreciation is expected to continue, with predictions of a moderate upward trend as the market adjusts to the Fed's monetary policy changes [5][6] Group 3: Economic Implications - The weakening dollar and strengthening yuan may enhance the flexibility of China's monetary policy, potentially benefiting small and medium enterprises by lowering financing costs [7] - The overall economic sentiment is improving, with expectations that if domestic credit and consumption recover, the yuan could experience a significant appreciation [6][7] - The combination of external and internal factors is driving the yuan's performance, with a focus on the Fed's actions and the yuan's middle rate adjustments [6][7]

【9月17日现货黄金冲上3700点，受多因素影响走势强劲】9月17日，隔夜市场现货黄金冲上3700整数关 口，COMEX黄金期货涨0.23%，报3727.5美元/盎司，SHFE黄金收涨0.19%。美联储降息预期、美元走 弱、地缘事件不确定性，共同推动黄金走势。 周二，美元持续疲弱，美元指数下跌0.74%，最低报 96.54，触及近两个月低点。美元兑欧元跌至2021年9月以来最低水平，跌幅达0.9%。 数据显示，美国8 月零售销售环比增长0.6%，高于预期的0.2%，前值由0.5%修正为0.6%，消费数据韧性足。周四凌晨美 联储会议召开，降息几成定局。 因美国总统新提名的美联储理事米兰将参加本次FOMC会议，预计公 布的点阵图将更鸽派。2025年全年降息次数指引将在2次和3次之间。 此外，需关注白宫对鲍威尔及其 他理事的持续施压，美联储独立性担忧或加剧市场波动。同时，要关注美联储9月议息会议及会后的季 度预测报告。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 ...

Market Overview - The gold market has recently seen a significant increase, with spot gold breaking through 3700, reaching a new historical high, driven by a weak US dollar and declining US Treasury yields [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision is highly anticipated, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut, which could influence future interest rate paths and subsequently affect gold prices [2][4] - Geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, providing support for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold maintains a bullish trend but is currently in a consolidation phase, suggesting a cautious approach to buying [4] - Key support is identified at 3665, with potential upward targets at 3710 and 3750 if the bullish trend continues [4] - If gold unexpectedly drops below 3665, it may enter a high volatility phase, with further support at 3620 [4] Oil Market Overview - International oil prices are experiencing high volatility, with Brent crude oil at $67.48 and WTI at $63.32 [5] - Concerns over Russian oil supply due to increased attacks on its refineries are driving market sentiment [5] - The oil market is influenced by three main factors: supply concerns from Russia, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, and mixed signals from Middle Eastern geopolitical relations [5] Technical Analysis - Oil - The oil market is currently in a weak consolidation phase, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range [6] - Short-term trading strategies suggest buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with resistance levels at 66.0-67.0 and support levels at 63.0-62.0 [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current spot gold price closed at $3678.73 per ounce, with a rise of approximately 1%, reaching a record high of $3685.47 during the session [2] - Multiple factors contributing to the gold price surge include a weak US dollar, declining US Treasury yields, and investor anticipation of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting [2][4] - The market expects the Federal Reserve to announce its first interest rate cut since December, which is driving the bullish sentiment in gold [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The gold market remains in a strong bullish trend, with key support at the historical high of $3674 and a critical support level at $3660 [4] - If gold breaks below $3660, it may continue to adjust, with further attention on the 3640-3635 region [4] - Short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with resistance levels at 3715-3725 and support at 3680-3670 [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices are experiencing high volatility, with Brent crude at $67.48 per barrel and WTI at $63.32 per barrel [5] - Concerns over Russian oil supply due to increased attacks on its refineries are driving market sentiment [5] - The oil market is influenced by three main factors: supply concerns from Russia, expectations of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, and mixed signals from Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The oil market is currently in a weak consolidation phase, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range [6] - Short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on selling on rebounds and buying on dips, with resistance levels at 64.5-65.5 and support at 62.0-61.0 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is at a critical juncture as of September 2025, influenced by global economic dynamics, monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and inflation levels, with significant attention on upcoming Federal Reserve data [1] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Safe-haven attribute: Geopolitical tensions continue to drive demand for gold during crises or uncertain times [3] - Stability: Gold remains relatively stable over the long term, not easily devalued by external factors or other currencies [3] - Weakening dollar: The depreciation of the dollar makes gold more attractive for non-US investors, as purchasing gold with other currencies becomes cheaper [3] - Federal Reserve rate cuts: Market expectations for rate cuts have made gold more appealing to investors [3] - Media coverage: Increased discussions and reports on rising gold prices enhance investor interest, leading analysts to predict further price increases [3] Group 2: Recent Trading Activity - Gold trading data shows various positions taken, with notable trades on September 1 to September 15, indicating fluctuations in opening and closing prices, as well as profit and loss outcomes [4] - Specific trading strategies suggest a bullish outlook, with recommendations to buy near support levels and target higher price points [5][6]