Core Viewpoint - Toll Brothers is considered a strong buy-and-hold stock due to its operational quality, cash flow, capital return, and long-term supply-demand outlook, but faces risks in 2025 due to macroeconomic conditions impacting the housing market [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a strong FQ3 with robust profitability and ample capital returns, but guidance for deliveries fell short, indicating potential changes in Q4 and early Q1 [2][7] - The capital return is deemed safe in 2025, with cash flow sufficient to cover dividend payments while maintaining financial health, despite increased liabilities [9] - The annual dividend is $1.00, with a dividend yield of 0.76% and a payout ratio of 7.42% [9] Group 2: Market Conditions - The market reaction suggests it may be peaking, with stock price declining nearly 3.0% in pre-opening trading, indicating resistance at critical levels around the low-$130s [2] - Leading indicators show weakness, including a 4% decline in signed contracts, a 10% decline in backlog, and a 19% contraction in backlog value [8] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is unlikely to make aggressive interest rate cuts to spur housing demand, with only an 82% chance for a 25-basis point cut at the September meeting [5][7] Group 3: Stock Performance and Analyst Sentiment - Analysts maintain a Moderate Buy rating with a 65% bullish bias, but price target uptrend has stalled, suggesting potential downward pressure on stock action [11] - Stock repurchases reduced the count by an average of 4.6% for the quarter, although the pace may slow in the future [10] - Toll Brothers was not included in a list of top stocks recommended by leading analysts, indicating a preference for other investment opportunities [12]

Group 1 - The price of physical gold from King Tai Fu is quoted at 1001 CNY per gram on August 21, 2025, a decrease of 4 CNY per gram compared to the previous trading day [1][2] - Platinum price is quoted at 503 CNY per gram on the same day, an increase of 2 CNY per gram compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has maintained stable interest rates since December, with an 85% probability of a rate cut in September according to CME's FedWatch tool [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to deliver a keynote speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on August 22, 2025, where investors will focus on his stance regarding labor market support measures versus inflation risks [3]

美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为81.9% 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为18.1%，降息25个基点的概率为81.9%；美联储 10月维持利率不变的概率为8%，累计降息25个基点的概率为46.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 45.5%。 8月21日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1287，上调97.00点。 美联储会议纪要：同意维持利率不变 经济前景不确定性仍然较高 美联储公布联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）7月29日至30日的会议纪要。会议纪要显示，美联储同意将 联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%-4.5%之间。在本次会议的货币政策讨论中，委员们一致认为，尽管 净出口波动影响了数据，但近标表明，上半年经济活动增长有所放缓。通胀率仍然略高，经济前景的不 确定性仍然较高。 来源：新浪网 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Group 1 - Trump is considering firing a Federal Reserve official, Lisa Cook, due to allegations of mortgage fraud related to her housing applications [2][3] - Allegations state that Cook submitted fraudulent information on two mortgage applications for properties in Michigan and Georgia, claiming both as her primary residence [3][4] - The accusations have led to a weakening of the dollar, a narrowing of U.S. Treasury yields, and an increase in gold prices [5] Group 2 - The incident marks an escalation in the White House's attacks on the Federal Reserve, with FHFA Director Bill Pulte becoming a prominent critic of Fed Chair Jerome Powell [8] - Cook, nominated by Biden in 2022, has aligned her voting stance with Powell and the majority of the FOMC during her tenure [8] - Recent criticisms from Trump and his appointees come as the market anticipates potential interest rate cuts from the Fed in the upcoming meetings [8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are under short-term pressure due to a strong US dollar and market anticipation of the Federal Reserve's annual meeting [2][4] - As of August 20, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 768.70 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 3.98 yuan per gram compared to the futures main price of 772.68 yuan per gram [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 13.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 86.1% [1] Group 2 - International gold price closed at 3315.03 USD per ounce, down 0.52%, with domestic SMM spot prices following the downward trend [3] - International silver price closed at 37.36 USD per ounce, down 1.68%, with a sluggish spot market transaction [5] - The silver market is expected to remain weak in the short term, influenced by declining industrial prices and a strong dollar [4][6]

8月15日，据CME《美联储观察》显示，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为7.9%，降息25个基点的概率 为92.1%。美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为3.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为41.7%，累计降息50个 基点的概率为55.2%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, and capital flows. Key events include Malaysia's increase in the September export tax on crude palm oil, expected low sunflower seed production in Ukraine, and potential impacts of weather on US crops. [1][9][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude oil, US soybeans, and others, are presented. Currency exchange rates such as the US dollar index and several other currencies against the US dollar are also provided. [1] Spot Market Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included. [2] Important Fundamental Information Weather in Production Areas - US soybean - producing states are expected to have higher - than - normal temperatures and mostly median precipitation from August 18th to 22nd. A slow - moving front in the US Midwest will bring rain and temperature changes, which may benefit some crops but also cause flooding in some areas. [5][8] International Supply - related News - Malaysia has raised the reference price and export tax of crude palm oil for September. Indonesia has saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange through the use of palm - based biodiesel. Forecasts for US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales are provided. Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volumes for a specific period are predicted. Argentina's soybean sales data is released. Ukraine's rapeseed and sunflower seed production is expected to decline. The Baltic Dry Index has risen. [9][10][11][12] Domestic Supply and Demand - On August 13th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased, while the trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The national oil mill operating rate declined. Price changes of various agricultural products and livestock products are reported. [14][15][16] Macro News International News - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts in September and October are high. The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut rates. US mortgage application and oil reserve data are provided. The IEA has lowered global oil demand growth forecasts. UAE's refined oil inventory has decreased. [18][19] Domestic News - The US dollar/renminbi exchange rate has decreased (renminbi appreciation). The central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations and achieved a net withdrawal of funds. China's July financial statistics show the growth of M2, M1, and M0. [20] Capital Flows - On August 13th, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 27.391 billion yuan, with 5.129 billion yuan in commodity futures (including inflows in agricultural and chemical futures and outflows in black - series futures) and 22.262 billion yuan in stock index futures. [24]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is actively seeking a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with Christopher Waller being a leading candidate due to his willingness to base policy on forecasts rather than existing data and his deep understanding of the Federal Reserve system [1][4] Group 1: Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair - Christopher Waller is currently the most prominent candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position, having met with Trump's team to discuss the role [1] - Other candidates include former Federal Reserve official Kevin Warsh and current White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, both of whom are also in contention for the position [1][2] - Trump has narrowed the candidate list to three individuals, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bentsen, Vice President JD Vance, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick [2] Group 2: Waller's Background and Experience - Waller was nominated to the Federal Reserve in 2020 and previously served as the research director and executive vice president of the St. Louis Fed [4] - He has engaged in public debates with influential economists, including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, and has successfully argued that inflation could be reduced without significantly increasing unemployment [4] - Waller has emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence for the proper functioning of the U.S. economy [4] Group 3: Recent Federal Reserve Decisions - Despite pressure from Trump, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate, with Waller and fellow board member Michelle Bowman voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut due to signs of a weakening labor market [3] - A recent employment report indicated a sharp slowdown in job growth over the past three months, supporting Waller and Bowman's dissenting opinions [3] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process has shown a divide in opinions, with some members believing the labor market remains strong and advocating for patience in adjusting interest rates [3]

据外媒报道，知情人士透露，在美国总统特朗普的顾问们为鲍威尔寻找替代者之际，美联储理事沃勒正 成为担任美联储主席的热门人选。 知情人士称，特朗普的顾问们对沃勒愿意基于预测而非当前数据来调整政策，以及他对整个美联储体系 的深刻了解印象深刻。 这些因讨论私人审议而要求匿名的人士表示，沃勒已就该职位与总统的团队会面，但尚未与特朗普本人 会面。 上周，沃勒是投票反对央行连续第五次维持基准利率不变的两名美联储理事会成员之一。他和他的同事 鲍曼两人都倾向于降息25个基点，理由是劳动力市场出现越来越多的疲软迹象，另外，二者均由特朗普 提名。 在美联储宣布维持利率不变的决定几天后，一份就业报告显示，在截至7月份的前三个月里，就业增长 急剧放缓，这证实了沃勒和鲍曼异议的可信度。 知情人士称，前美联储官员凯文·沃什和现任特朗普国家经济委员会主任的凯文·哈塞特也仍在竞争之 列，该职位将在鲍威尔的主席任期于2026年5月届满时空出。 白宫发言人库什·德赛（Kush Desai）在一份声明中说，"特朗普总统将继续提名最称职、最有经验的人 选，然而，除非消息来自特朗普总统本人，否则任何关于人事决定的讨论都应被视为纯粹的猜测。" 美联储的一 ...

今日CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为6.4%，降息25个基点的概率为 93.6%。美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为33.9%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为64%。 ...