Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's potential early maneuvering regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicating that an announcement may come soon despite Jerome Powell's term lasting until May 2026 [1] - Trump may leverage the upcoming vacancy of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler in January 2026 to position a successor, reflecting the administration's emphasis on monetary policy influence [1] - The market's focus is expected to shift towards the selection of the next Fed Chair as the "Big Beautiful Plan" is anticipated to pass in mid-July and trade policies become clearer [1] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank identifies three prominent candidates for the Fed Chair position: Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Chris Waller, each with distinct policy inclinations [2] - Kevin Warsh, a former Fed Governor, is viewed as a frontrunner but has a history of hawkish views, criticizing quantitative easing and recent rate cuts [2] - Chris Waller, currently a Fed Governor, has shown a more dovish stance, suggesting that the Fed could overlook inflation driven by tariffs and lower interest rates [2] Group 3 - Deutsche Bank believes that Trump's call for a significant rate cut indicates a preference for a dovish candidate, with Waller being seen as having a higher chance of success [3] - The report emphasizes that merely having a dovish inclination is insufficient; the new Chair must persuade colleagues to adopt a different policy path, which could be challenging for external candidates with past criticisms of the Fed [3] - Waller's current position as a Fed Governor may provide him with an advantage in navigating the internal dynamics of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [3] Group 4 - The article warns that regardless of the final candidate, the market may test the independence of the next Fed Chair and the credibility of their commitment to achieving inflation targets [4] - The challenge of maintaining independence could be more pronounced if the candidate comes from within the government, especially given Trump's threats to dismiss Powell and calls for substantial rate cuts amid strong economic resilience and rising inflation pressures [4] - The new Fed Chair will face the critical decision of whether to uphold the Fed's hard-won anti-inflation credibility in the current economic context [4]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell marks a significant moment in their relationship, with Trump urging for interest rate cuts while Powell emphasizes the Fed's independence in monetary policy decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Meeting Details - Trump and Powell met for the first time since Trump returned to the White House, discussing economic growth, employment, and inflation [1]. - Powell reiterated that monetary policy decisions will be based on detailed, objective analysis and will not be influenced by political pressures [1][2]. - The meeting is seen as a potential thawing of the previously tense relationship between Trump and Powell, although some reports suggest it may also represent increased pressure from Trump on the Fed [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Stance - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the third consecutive time, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [2][3]. - Fed officials are concerned about the impact of Trump's tariffs and policy uncertainty on the economy, as well as persistent inflation levels [3][4]. - Market predictions suggest that the Fed may cut interest rates twice later this year, in September and December [5].

白宫新闻秘书Leavitt：5月29日稍早，美国总统特朗普和美联储主席鲍威尔的确在白宫会面。 特朗普告诉鲍威尔，他犯了一个错，"不降息是错误的"。 ...

这位BIS总经理的警告正值美国、日本、欧州债券收益率持续攀升之际——市场普遍预期这些政府将通 过扩大债务融资来增加支出。 卡斯滕斯强调，若政府债务违约，可能引发全球金融体系动荡并威胁货币稳定，因为央行可能被迫为政 府债务融资，导致"财政支配货币政策"的困局。"其后果将是通胀攀升与汇率急剧贬值。基于这些风 险，财政当局遏制公共债务攀升已刻不容缓。" 国际清算银行（BIS）总经理卡斯滕斯（Agustin Carstens）周二在日本央行主办的东京会议上发出严厉 警告：随着利率攀升导致部分国家财政路径不可持续，全球各国政府必须遏制公共债务的"无休止"增 长。 卡斯滕斯指出，全球金融危机后的长期低利率环境曾让巨额赤字和高负债显得"可以承受"，使得财政当 局能够回避削减开支或增税等艰难抉择。然而，"超低利率时代已经结束。在公众对政府承诺的信任开 始动摇之前，财政当局整顿财政的窗口期非常短暂。" 他警告称，"市场已逐渐意识到，某些财政路径根本不可持续。面对巨大的财政失衡，金融市场可能突 然失稳。"因此，他强调，"多数经济体必须立即启动财政整顿，敷衍应对已行不通。" 作为"央行的央行"，BIS致力于促进各国央行间货币与财政 ...

三、利率政策僵局：贸易战阴影下的按兵不动 美联储本月连续第三次维持利率在4.25%-4.50%区间不变，鲍威尔在演讲中虽未直接提及货币政策，但强 调"贸易战的不确定性"是决策关键。特朗普近期多次指责美联储"降息太迟"，声称"美国没有通胀"，但美联储官员普遍认为，政府关税政策已导致经济前景 模糊，此时降息可能加剧市场波动。芝加哥联储行长古尔斯比23日更表示，"一切选项都在桌面上"，但需等待贸易局势明朗化。 四、政治博弈：鲍威尔的 坚守与特朗普的困境 鲍威尔的连任任期将于2026年5月结束，而特朗普政府的施压已引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧。尽管特朗普4月曾改口称"无意解雇鲍 威尔"，但其持续的舆论攻击与关税政策仍在挑战美联储的决策空间。分析指出，最高法院的裁决虽未完全排除罢免可能，但已显著提升了政治成本，鲍威 尔短期内地位稳固。与此同时，美联储对贸易战风险的审慎态度，也凸显了货币政策在政治干预与经济现实间的艰难平衡。 这场演讲不仅是鲍威尔对个人职业操守的宣誓，更是美联储在政治风暴中的一次立场宣示。在普林斯顿大学的象征意义加持下，鲍威尔以"服务公民"的呼 吁，将机构辩护升华为对公共价值的捍卫，为这场持续的权力博弈增 ...

作 者丨胡慧茵 吴斌 编 辑丨李莹亮 和佳 江佩佩 周一，受中美经贸会谈利好消息提振，美股开盘全线大涨。截至美股最新收盘，美股三大指 数 均 大 幅 收 涨 ， 纳 指 涨 4 . 3 5% ， 标 普 5 0 0 指 数 涨 3 . 2 6% ， 均 创 3 月 3 日 以 来 收 盘 新 高 ； 道 指 涨 11 6 0 . 7 2点，涨幅2 . 8 1%，创3月2 7日以来收盘新高。 截至最新美股收盘，大型科技股多数上涨，亚马逊涨超8%，Me t a涨超7%，苹果、特斯拉涨 超6%，英伟达涨逾5%，谷歌、英特尔涨逾3%，微软涨超2%；奈飞跌超2%。 纳斯达克中国 金 龙 指 数 大 幅 收 涨 5 . 4% ， 创 4 月 4 日 以 来 新 高 ， 万 得 中 概 科 技 龙 头 指 数 （ DRAG ） 上 涨 4 . 2 9% 。 中 概 股 普 涨 ， 文 远 知 行 涨 超 2 7% ， 小 马 智 行 涨 近 1 2% ， 小 鹏 汽 车 、 哔 哩 哔 哩 涨 近 8%，京东、拼多多、理想汽车涨逾6%，蔚来、阿里巴巴、百度涨超5%。 W 万得美国科技七巨头指数[MAGS] 50359.21 ...

据第一财经报道，美债是支撑美国政府和经济的重要根基，其重要性已经显露。彼时，美国国债遭遇大幅抛售——不少 市场人士就预判，此次美股无法做到的事情，美债市场也许能做到，即美债收益率的大幅持续攀升会令特朗普政府在对 等关税政策上"眨眼"。市场人士强调，此次导致美债和美元指数下跌的原因更加结构性、系统性。 美国总统特朗普（资料图） 中辉期货资管部投资经理王维芒表示，尽管特朗普暂缓对部分国家加征关税，但政策的不确定性加剧了市场对美国经济 衰退和通胀反弹的预期，削弱了美债的避险属性。另外，对冲基金通过高杠杆做多美债现券、做空期货，依赖低波动率 环境套利。特朗普关税政策引发市场剧烈波动，波动率指数飙升至年内高点，导致基差交易爆仓，基金被迫抛售现券以 补充保证金。当前基差交易规模已达1万亿美元，平仓压力导致长债收益率飙升。与美债收益率关系密切的降息进程，近 期变数颇多。 近年来，美国政府对美联储政策的干预逐渐增强。特朗普在二次执政期间，已多次对美联储的决策表达不满并施加压 力，这使得外界对美联储能否独立、科学地制定货币政策产生了担忧。今年2月，特朗普签署了一项行政命令，宣称"掌 握重大行政权力的官员必须接受民选总统的监督" ...

Group 1 - The current assessment of the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy is premature, with the Federal Reserve needing to consider both inflation risks and potential economic growth suppression [1] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy is exacerbating economic instability, affecting consumer and investment willingness, and dragging down economic growth [1] - The independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is emphasized as crucial for the success of the U.S. economy, countering political pressure for interest rate cuts [1][2] Group 2 - Recent increases in U.S. Treasury yields and a weakening dollar may further pressure the economy, with potential consequences for domestic financing costs and the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [2] - The Federal Reserve's credibility is highlighted as its most valuable asset, built on objective, transparent, and data-driven decision-making [2] - The impact of tariff policies on low-income households is a concern, as these groups are more reliant on low-margin imported goods and have less capacity to combat rising prices [2][3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is attentive to the effects of monetary policy on low-income groups, aiming to achieve price stability and maximum employment to provide upward mobility opportunities [3] - Long-term economic expansion without inflation is seen as beneficial for narrowing employment and income gaps, particularly for low-wage and less-educated workers [3] - A society with higher economic mobility enhances the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission, encouraging labor market participation and investment in skills [3]

智通财经4月20日电，美联储官员古尔斯比表示，经济学家们一致认为，货币政策独立于政治干预是极 其重要的。希望美国不会陷入一种货币独立性受到质疑的局面。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is evolving from a verbal dispute into a systemic crisis, challenging the independence of the Federal Reserve and the credibility of U.S. monetary policy [1][5]. Group 1: Political Dynamics - Trump has publicly criticized Powell, calling him "slow and incompetent," and has suggested that he could easily replace him if desired [1][3]. - The White House is reportedly exploring the possibility of replacing Powell, with former Fed governor Kevin Walsh as a potential successor [1][5]. - This power struggle is not merely about policy differences but poses a broader challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve and the stability of the global financial system [1][8]. Group 2: Powell's Position - Powell, appointed by Trump, has maintained the Fed's traditional independence and has resisted political pressure to implement monetary easing [3][6]. - His commitment to data-driven policy adjustments, especially in the context of ongoing inflation and high interest rates, has frustrated Trump, who seeks a more compliant monetary policy to support his re-election efforts [3][6]. - The potential removal of Powell could set a dangerous precedent, undermining the Fed's operational independence and transforming it into a political tool [5][8]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Trump's economic policies, including tax cuts and trade wars, have contributed to inflation and economic instability, which he now attributes to Powell's actions [6]. - Economists and market participants largely support Powell, warning that political pressure on the Fed could lead to higher inflation and unemployment [6][8]. - The credibility of the Fed, built on its commitment to non-political decision-making, is at risk if the independence of the institution is compromised [6][8].