当地时间8月25日，美国总统特朗普以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由，突然宣布解除美联储理事莉萨·库克 的职务。这一被媒体称为史无前例的举动，立即在美国政坛、金融市场与法律界掀起巨浪。仅隔一日， 库克通过律师阿贝·洛厄尔强硬回应：总统无权单方面将其免职，她将继续履职，并将在联邦法院提起 诉讼，寻求司法裁决。 诉讼一旦启动，将触发一场罕见的宪政对决，行政权与独立监管机构的边界何在？ 最高法院曾在1935年汉弗莱遗嘱执行人诉美国案中裁定，总统不得随意罢免独立机构成员，后续判例亦 强化了对美联储理事的免职保护。若法院再次确认该原则，特朗普的闪电解雇将被推翻；反之，美联储 的独立性或被撕开裂缝，未来货币政策已沦为党争工具。 市场已提前感受到寒意。消息公布后，美国两年期国债收益率跳升8个基点，美元指数短线走高，显示 投资者对政策不确定性的担忧。华尔街策略师在研报中写道：如果总统能轻易赶走意见相左的理事，美 联储的信誉将受重创，通胀预期或再度失控。眼下，库克、美联储与白宫三方都在为可能的漫长诉讼做 准备。无论最终裁决如何，这场看似针对个人的闪电战，已演变为关乎美国货币政策独立性与三权分立 根基的深层较量。而夹在宪政之争与普通选民 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is opening the door to interest rate cuts as it adjusts its monetary policy framework, emphasizing the need for flexibility in achieving full employment and price stability [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's New Monetary Policy Framework - The new framework redefines the goals of full employment and price stability, indicating that fixed employment targets are unsuitable due to their variability over time [1]. - The Federal Reserve has shifted away from a "compensatory" inflation strategy, signaling that upcoming rate cuts are preventive rather than aggressive [1][3]. - The adjustment in the monetary policy framework is partly a response to recent significant revisions in employment data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, raising concerns about the reliability of employment statistics [1][2]. Group 2: Challenges and Implications - The current environment presents uncertainties regarding the stability and predictability of decision-making, influenced by potential data distortions in employment and price indices [2]. - Digital technology is transforming the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, complicating the Fed's ability to adapt its framework to these changes [2][3]. - The emergence of decentralized stablecoins is shifting some monetary policy functions from the Federal Reserve to the U.S. Treasury, challenging the Fed's control over macro-financial dynamics [2][3]. Group 3: Global Market Impact - The impact of the Fed's interest rate cuts on global markets will not be uniform but will depend on the economic relationships between countries and their acceptance of dollar-based stablecoins [4]. - Countries need to adjust their risk management strategies in response to the evolving global market dynamics influenced by the Fed's policy changes [4][5]. - The Fed's policy adjustments prompt other central banks to reconsider their traditional frameworks and adapt to new technological and transmission mechanisms [5].

来源：@第一时间微博 【#美联储公布7月货币政策例会会议纪要#：利率维持不变】当地时间20日，美联储公布了7月份货币政 策会议的会议纪要。会议纪要显示，决定维持联邦基金利率在4.25%-4.5%不变。只有美联储负责监管事 务的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒对于维持联邦基金利率目标区间不变的决定投下 反对票，这两名委员支持将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，以防止就业市场进一步疲软。会议指 出美国经济前景不确定性较高，增长放缓，而贸易关税的影响尚未完全显现。此外，特朗普不断施压美 联储主席鲍威尔降息，并多次威胁解除鲍威尔职务，引发外界对美联储货币政策独立性的担忧。 ...

Group 1 - The news reports that the U.S. government has imposed tariffs on imported gold bars, specifically one-kilogram and 100-ounce bars, which has led to fluctuations in gold prices [3] - The White House plans to issue an executive order to clarify misinformation regarding tariffs on gold and other specialty products, aiming to stabilize the market [3] - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials indicate a strong likelihood of interest rate cuts, with Vice Chair Bowman suggesting that the latest employment data supports the case for three rate cuts this year [3] Group 2 - Economic data from the U.S. continues to show weakness, with the ISM non-manufacturing index for July at 50.1, below market expectations and previous values [4] - Market expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve are high, with nearly a 90% probability anticipated [4] - Long-term bullish factors for gold include central bank purchases, ETF investments, and a weakening dollar, with expectations for gold to continue rising in the fourth quarter [4]

至于对特朗普要求美联储快速降息的问题，贝森特表示，"特朗普总统会表明立场，伊丽莎白·沃伦参议 员也会发声。但最终决策权在于保持独立性的美联储。"（新华财经） 据日经新闻报道，在回应有关下一届美联储主席应具备的素质的提问时，美国财长贝森特表示，"新任 主席必须赢得市场信任，具备解析复杂经济数据的能力。FOMC有12票表决权，因此（主席）需要协调 各方、促成共识。我认为更重要的是，这位掌舵人应当具备前瞻思维，而非拘泥于历史数据。当前令我 担忧的是货币政策独立性正遭受侵蚀。这种独立性对经济平稳运行、通胀预期管理至关重要。美联储职 能（不断）向其他领域扩张，已危及这一根本原则。因此下任主席必须能够重新审视整个机构的定 位。" ...

Core Viewpoint - The next Federal Reserve Chair should possess market confidence, and it is necessary for the Federal Reserve to maintain a degree of monetary policy independence for the economy [1] Group 1 - The importance of market confidence in the next Federal Reserve Chair is emphasized [1] - The necessity of a certain level of monetary policy independence for the Federal Reserve is highlighted as crucial for the economy [1]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights three significant events in early August that may drive gold prices upward: a downward revision of non-farm employment data, a key resignation at the Federal Reserve, and political interference in employment statistics [2][3][4] - The downward revision of July's non-farm employment figures to 73,000, below the expected 110,000, along with substantial downward adjustments to previous months' data, reflects a weakening economic backdrop and raises expectations for interest rate cuts, which is favorable for gold's financial attributes [3] - The resignation of a hawkish Federal Reserve member and changes in employment data leadership raise concerns about the independence of monetary policy, potentially leading to a loss of credibility in economic data and a favorable environment for gold prices [4] Summary by Sections Non-Farm Employment Data - July's non-farm employment added 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, with a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June [2][3] - The report notes a structural divide in employment growth, with private sector jobs increasing only by 74,000, the lowest since October of the previous year [3] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the changes in leadership at the Federal Reserve could mirror historical instances where political pressures compromised monetary policy independence, potentially leading to stagflation [4] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve for the September meeting surged from under 40% to nearly 90% following the employment data release [3] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on the gold sector, recommending attention to companies such as China National Gold International, Shandong Gold, and others in the gold mining industry [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a rare significant revision, leading to increased pessimism regarding the U.S. economic outlook [1] - Political interference from Trump on the Federal Reserve raised concerns about the independence of monetary policy, contributing to a decline in both U.S. stocks and the dollar, while gold prices rose [1] - Gold is expected to continue its upward trend, testing resistance levels between 3460 - 3470, maintaining a strong bullish outlook in the medium to long term [1] - The daily chart indicates a bullish morning star pattern, with the market in a 5-wave upward phase, suggesting a higher probability of breaking through previous resistance levels [1] - The ongoing situation in Ukraine may introduce uncertainty into gold price movements [1] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver's recent rebound provides a short-term opportunity for bulls, but caution is advised as the overall trend remains neutral to bearish [3][4] - The daily chart shows silver prices below the recently broken upward channel, indicating a lack of a clear downward channel [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is slightly above 45, indicating a slight improvement in market momentum, but still below the neutral level of 50, suggesting prevailing bearish sentiment [4] - If the rebound continues, bulls may target resistance levels between 37.50 - 38.00 USD, while a drop below 36.00 USD could reignite selling pressure [6] - Short-term trading strategy for silver suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds and considering long positions on pullbacks, with key resistance at 37.50 - 37.70 USD and support at 36.90 - 36.70 USD [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that China's monetary policy will focus on "aggregate adjustment + structural optimization + mechanism innovation" to create a more precise and powerful policy mix [1][2][10] - The People's Bank of China has innovated monetary policy tools, establishing a multi-layered and multi-dimensional policy tool system to address the urgent needs of economic transformation and upgrading [1][3] - Structural monetary policy tools have significantly supported key areas such as technological innovation and green development, with a total balance of 5.9 trillion yuan expected by the end of Q1 2025 [1][3][4] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector has seen a year-on-year growth of 11.9% in medium to long-term loans, with high-tech manufacturing loans growing at an impressive rate of 12% [4] - The introduction of innovative measures such as secondary market government bond trading and stock repurchase has expanded the operational space for monetary policy, playing a crucial role in stabilizing market expectations and preventing financial risks [5][6] - The average annual GDP growth rate from 2021 to 2024 was 8.6%, 3.1%, 5.4%, and 5%, showcasing resilience amid a global economic downturn [6] Group 3 - Despite the positive impacts of monetary policy, challenges remain, including unstable market expectations and uneven distribution of interbank liquidity, which test the wisdom of monetary policy regulation [1][7] - The current low interest rate environment has led to a historical low net interest margin of 1.52% for commercial banks by the end of Q4 2024, complicating their cost management [8] - Recommendations include enhancing the transparency of information, optimizing risk preference matching mechanisms, and innovating structural monetary policy tools to support small and medium-sized banks [9][10] Group 4 - The need for a coordinated mechanism between fiscal and monetary policies is highlighted as essential for stabilizing the economy and boosting market confidence [12][13] - Strengthening the independence of monetary policy is crucial for resisting external shocks, with suggestions to enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate and improve the LPR mechanism [13] - The central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy stance, with potential issuance of special bonds to support large-scale equipment updates and consumption incentives [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates on July 30 has sparked significant uncertainty in the market, with questions surrounding future rate cuts and the political pressures faced by Chairman Powell [1][3][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates for the fifth consecutive time, reflecting internal divisions among decision-makers, which is unprecedented in 32 years [1][6] - Chairman Powell emphasizes the importance of data-driven decisions, indicating that inflation has not fully returned to target levels, and that premature rate cuts could pose new risks [5][6] - The ongoing debate has evolved into a broader discussion about the governance of the U.S. economy, highlighting the tension between short-term economic stimulus and long-term stability [1][7] Group 2: Political Pressures - President Trump has been exerting pressure on the Federal Reserve for months, arguing that high interest rates hinder economic recovery, particularly affecting low- and middle-income groups [5][6] - Trump's public criticisms of Powell and the Fed's actions have intensified, framing the situation as a direct confrontation between the presidency and the central bank [5][7] - The political context is critical, as 2025 is an election year, and economic performance is closely tied to voter sentiment, prompting Trump to push for rate cuts to bolster public support [6][7] Group 3: Market Reactions - Market participants are caught in a dilemma, trying to interpret the conflicting signals from the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve, leading to increased uncertainty [6][7] - The volatility in key economic indicators such as consumption, employment, and investment has left the market yearning for clear signals from the Fed, but each meeting has resulted in a status quo [6][7]