Core Viewpoint - The international precious metals market experienced a significant decline, with various metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium seeing substantial drops in prices [1][2]. Price Movements - On December 29, precious metals faced a sharp decline, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 4.45%, COMEX silver futures plummeting by 7.2%, spot gold falling over 4%, spot silver dropping over 9%, spot palladium declining over 15%, and spot platinum decreasing over 14% [9]. - The following day, December 30, the market saw a general rebound, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.2%, spot gold increasing by 0.17%, COMEX silver futures up by 7.88%, spot silver rising by 5.66%, and NYMEX platinum futures gaining 4% [9]. Market Analysis - UBS warned that the rapid increase in precious metal prices is largely due to insufficient market liquidity, indicating a potential for a swift decline [11]. - Analysts from Capital Economics noted that the current prices of precious metals have risen to levels that are difficult to justify based on fundamentals, predicting that silver prices could fall to around $42 per ounce by the end of next year [11]. - Hu Long Futures suggested that silver is currently outperforming gold, with higher short-term volatility and amplitude. They indicated that the silver market is in a "frenzy stage," advising ordinary investors against hasty participation [11].

Core Viewpoint - The financial market experienced significant volatility, with precious metals like gold and silver witnessing sharp declines after a period of rapid price increases, leading to a broader sell-off in related stocks and indices [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold futures on COMEX fell by 4.45% to $4,350.2 per ounce, while silver futures dropped by 7.2% to $71.64 per ounce, with London spot silver seeing a decline nearing 9% [1] - In the U.S. stock market, Harmony Gold fell over 8%, and Pan American Silver dropped by 5.7%, contributing to slight declines in the Dow and Nasdaq indices [1] Group 2: Margin Requirements - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced an increase in trading margin requirements for precious metals, with silver margins raised by 13.6%, gold by 10%, and platinum by 23% [3] - This increase in margin requirements is seen as a measure to curb excessive speculation in the market, forcing leveraged investors to either add cash or liquidate positions, leading to a chain reaction of selling [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - Recent hawkish comments from multiple Federal Reserve officials indicated a strong opposition to early interest rate cuts, with expectations of a rate cut in early 2026 dropping from 70% to 47% [4] - The Fed's stance has increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver, further pressuring their prices as the dollar strengthens [4] Group 4: Decrease in Safe-Haven Demand - The recent decline in geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-China trade relations, has led to a reduction in safe-haven demand for precious metals [5] - Additionally, significant profits accumulated from the previous price surge have prompted many investors to lock in gains, exacerbating the sell-off during market panic [5] Group 5: Future Market Outlook - Analysts are divided on the future of precious metals, with UBS warning that silver could drop to $42 per ounce by the end of 2026, while CITIC Construction believes that the fundamentals remain strong due to tight supply and robust industrial demand [5]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified, and investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2] Summary by Directory Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 0.20% to $4352.30 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 7.88% to $76.02 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.04% at 986.34 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver closed up 5.36% at 18792 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of December 30, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous day at 1071.99 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 149.46 tons to 16455.42 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 14.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 85.1%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.2%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 48.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 6.5% [1] - In the early morning of the 31st, the Fed's December meeting minutes showed that the FOMC agreed to cut interest rates in the December meeting, but officials had serious differences. If inflation gradually declines as expected, most officials think further rate cuts are appropriate. The committee will start buying short - term Treasury bonds as needed to maintain an adequate supply of reserves and will remove the total limit on the standing repurchase operation [1] Market Logic - The Fed's December meeting minutes showed that the FOMC agreed to cut interest rates in December, but officials had serious differences. The decision - making process reflects the dependence of the future rate - cut rhythm on economic data and the divergence of policy paths. The market's expectation of a rate cut in January next year has remained below 20% recently, and it declined slightly on Tuesday [1] - CME Group raised the performance margins of gold, silver, lithium and other metal futures after the close on December 29, which triggered long - position profit - taking in the precious metals market. On Monday, precious metals fell sharply. On Tuesday, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 149.46 tons, indicating strong buying support for silver [1] - On December 30, the US dollar index rose 0.23% to 98.22. On December 30, COMEX gold rose first and then fell, while COMEX silver rebounded significantly [2] Trading Strategy - Due to the intensified short - term volatility of precious metals, investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified, and investors are advised to adjust positions and control risks [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - COMEX gold futures fell 4.45% to $4350.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 7.2% to $71.64 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed down 4% at 975.8 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver closed down 8.74% at 17,237 yuan per kilogram [1] 3.2 Important News - As of December 29, the持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.86 tons to 1071.99 tons, while the持仓 of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 84.6 tons to 16305.96 tons [1] - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 16.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 83.9%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 47.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 6.9% [1] - Trump confirmed that the US military attacked a large - scale facility in the Venezuelan operation. He also stated that if Iran continues to develop ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons, he supports strikes against Iran [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January next year remains within 20%. CME Group announced a significant margin adjustment on December 26, raising the performance margins of gold, silver, lithium and other metal futures after the close on December 29, which triggered long - position profit - taking. On December 29, the US dollar index fell slightly by 0.04% to 98.00, and both COMEX gold and silver declined significantly with silver fluctuating violently throughout the day [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Due to the intensified short - term volatility of precious metals, investors should adjust positions and control risks [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Short - term silver prices are experiencing violent fluctuations. The CME's increase in precious metal futures margins reflects concerns about market volatility. Investors are advised to assess their risk tolerance and control investment risks. Gold has a relatively smaller fluctuation range due to its slower previous rise [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content - **Market Performance**: On December 26, 2025, London spot silver rose over 10% to $79 per ounce. On December 29, it opened above $80 per ounce, reaching a high of $83.971 per ounce and then quickly falling to near $75 per ounce [3]. - **Margin Adjustment**: The CME will comprehensively raise the performance margins of gold, silver, lithium and other metal futures after the close on December 29. The initial margins of COMEX100 - ounce gold futures (GC) Non - HRP and HRP contracts will be raised by 10%, and those of COMEX5000 - ounce silver futures (SI) Non - HRP and HRP contracts will be raised by over 13% [3]. - **Historical Reference**: In 2011, the CME raised silver futures margins five times from April 25 to May 5, increasing the initial margin requirement from 6% to 12%, which led to a sharp short - term decline in silver futures prices [3].

Group 1 - Report Core View - On December 26, 2025, the London spot silver rose by over 10% and reached $79 per ounce. The CME Group announced a significant margin adjustment, increasing the initial margins for gold, silver, and lithium futures contracts after the close on December 29. The initial margins for COMEX 100 - ounce gold futures (GC) Non - HRP and HRP contracts were raised by 10%, and those for COMEX 5000 - ounce silver futures (SI) Non - HRP and HRP contracts were increased by over 13%. The market believes this reflects the exchange's deep concern about the abnormal fluctuations in the precious metal market [2]. - On December 29, the London spot silver opened above $80 per ounce, reaching a high of $83.971 per ounce and then quickly dropping to near $75 per ounce. In 2011, the CME Group also raised silver futures margins multiple times, causing a sharp short - term decline in silver futures prices. Given the short - term volatility of silver, investors are advised to consider their risk tolerance and control investment risks. Gold has a relatively smaller fluctuation range due to its slower previous price increase [2]. Group 2 - Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report.

从库存数据来看，伦敦金银市场协会(LBMA)2025年11月的白银库存已降至2.72万吨，与历史最高库存 3.67万吨相比，下降了25.9%，显示出欧洲现货供应的紧张局势。而上海期货交易所(SHFE)截至12月11 日的白银库存更是仅为780.6吨，与其历史峰值3075.53吨相比，锐减了近75%，表明亚洲市场实物白银 同样面临极度短缺的状况。 尽管纽约商品交易所(COMEX)的白银库存年内增长超过50%，当前库存达到1.42万吨，但由于市场对美 国关税政策及物流瓶颈的担忧，这部分库存难以有效回流至伦敦以缓解当地的短缺问题。在此背景下， 大量白银被ETF等投资工具实物锁定，进一步加剧了LBMA体系内可用于即时交割的流动性紧张状况。 因此，当市场买盘集中涌现时，伦敦等核心交割地的可交割实物严重不足，直接触发了挤仓机制，推动 白银期货价格在全球市场同步飙升。 此外，近期铂金价格也呈现出同步走强的态势，同样受到现货短缺与流动性挤仓的影响。据彭博社报 道，一个月期铂金租赁利率持续维持在10%以上的高位，虽然较7月超35%的峰值有所回落，但仍远高 于接近零的正常水平，这反映出持有者惜售情绪浓厚，可交割现货极度稀缺的现实 ...

10月23日，黄金和白银在周二经历大幅抛售后持续震荡，当日两者价格分别创下四年和五年来的最快跌 幅。然而，GTC泽汇资本认为，尽管短期市场波动剧烈，但造成此前市场过热的基本条件仍然存在，整 体供需格局未发生根本性改变。市场分析人士普遍指出，本次调整为投资者提供了更健康的买入机会。 在接受Kitco News采访时，abrdn的ETF投资策略主管罗伯特·明特表示，周二的抛售虽然剧烈，却有助 于缓解黄金和白银的超买状态。他指出："如果上周你觉得黄金和白银价格过高，现在市场已经更健康 了。"GTC泽汇资本认为，投资者应逐步适应贵金属市场的高波动性，尤其是白银，由于供应持续紧 张，其价格短期内可能仍将出现大幅波动。 明特指出，过去四年白银市场持续出现显著供应缺口，主要由于工业需求上升，但由于地上库存充足， 市场尚未立即感受到短缺压力。目前市场正处于实物金属无法满足即时需求的阶段。他表示："白银长 期供需紧张，但市场未予以足够关注。价格在今年初出现快速调整也并不意外，同时部分投资者在高位 获利了结也在预料之中。"GTC泽汇资本认为，这种供需格局可能在短期内难以得到根本改善，因此投 资者应保持谨慎并关注波动机会。 今年以 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices have experienced a decline, falling below $4240 after reaching a peak of $4274.8 earlier in the day, with a notable drop below the $4300 mark last Friday [1] - Silver prices have also seen a significant drop, marking the largest decline in recent stages [1] - Industry institutions have warned that after a rapid increase in gold prices, there is a potential for adjustments and increased volatility [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has issued a notice regarding the complex and volatile international situation, advising relevant parties to take measures for risk prevention and to maintain market stability [2] - Recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict include Ukrainian President Zelensky expressing willingness to participate in talks with U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin, indicating a potential diplomatic engagement [3] - Trump has stated that he had a lengthy conversation with Putin discussing the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and subsequent U.S.-Russia trade issues, claiming significant progress was made [3]

Group 1 - International gold and silver prices experienced a sharp decline, with gold dropping over 2% at one point and currently down 1.64% at $4254.69 per ounce, while silver fell 5.26% to $50.493 per ounce [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued a notice highlighting the complex international situation and significant volatility in the precious metals market, urging relevant parties to take measures for risk prevention and to maintain market stability [3] - Bitcoin has fallen below $107,000, with market conditions leading to record forced liquidations, and the cryptocurrency sector continues to struggle for a sustained rebound [3] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market showed weak performance, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices declining, while the Dow Jones remained flat [5] - There are indications of a potential meeting between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump within the next two weeks, as preparations for the summit in Budapest are reportedly underway [6]