隔夜美股，受软件股抛售潮和美伊对峙升温影响，大型科技股走弱，三大指数全线走低。 纳斯达克指数近乎跌去年内涨幅 | TAIN ISAAL | 1327.020 | -8.54% | 5.32亿 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FICO.N | | | | | APPLOVIN | 461.790 | -4.39% | 25.30亿 | | APP.O | | | | | 财捷(INTUIT) | 434.090 | -10.89% | 25.03亿 | | INTU.O | | | | | CROWDSTRIKE | 421.730 | -3.90% | 11.92亿 | | CRWD.O | | | | | 新思科技(SYNOPS | 419.140 | -8.46% | 17.03亿 | | SNPS.O | | | | | 微软(MICROSOFT | 411.210 | -2.87% | 186.91亿 | | MSFT.O | | | | | CYBERARK SOFT | 406.670 | -4.82% | 2.02亿 | | CYBR.O | | | | | 儒博科技 ...

【导读】纳斯达克指数近乎跌去年内涨幅 隔夜美股，受软件股抛售潮和美伊对峙升温影响，大型科技股走弱，三大指数全线走低。 纳斯达克指数近乎跌去年内涨幅 美东时间2月3日（周二），美股高开低走。受软件股抛售和地缘政治影响，三大指数全线走低。纳斯达克指数盘中跌幅达2.39%，美股科技巨头走弱。 截至收盘，标普500指数跌0.84%，报6917.81点；纳斯达克综合指数跌1.43%，报23255.19点；道琼斯工业平均指数跌0.34%，报49240.99点。纳斯达克指数 近乎跌去年内涨幅。 美股科技七巨头中，仅微软收涨，英伟达、脸书、亚马逊跌幅均超过2%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业平均 | 49240.99c | -166.67 | | -0.34% | 2.45% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23255.19c | -336.92 | | -1.43% | 0.06% | | 标普500 | 6917.81c | -58.63 | | -0.84% | 1.06% | | 名称 | 现价 | ...

Market - US stock market closed lower with tech stocks being sold off, resulting in the Nasdaq almost erasing its gains for the year [2][4] - Nvidia's stock fell 2.84% for the third consecutive day, while Microsoft dropped 2.87% for four days in a row; however, Walmart and PepsiCo saw their stock prices rise [3][4] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks Chinese stocks, fell 0.94%, with notable movements including a 4.06% increase in Xpeng Motors and a 2.82% decrease in Alibaba [4] Commodities - Oil prices rose slightly after a previous drop of over 4%, with Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate both experiencing gains [5] - Precious metals saw a significant rebound, with gold prices increasing by 5.96% to $4939.38 per ounce, and silver futures rising over 11% [6] Companies - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang denied rumors of a stalled investment with OpenAI, stating that the investment plan is proceeding as scheduled and that Nvidia will participate in OpenAI's next funding round [29] - Intel's CEO Pat Gelsinger announced a focus on the GPU market, indicating that the shortage of storage chips is expected to last until 2028 [30] - AMD's outlook disappointed some investors, with projected Q1 sales of approximately $9.8 billion, which, while above analyst expectations, fell short of some forecasts exceeding $10 billion [31] - Novo Nordisk's stock plummeted 11% after announcing a forecasted decline in sales and profits for the year, particularly in the US market [32] - Apple announced the integration of AI capabilities from Anthropic and OpenAI into its flagship programming tool, Xcode, enhancing software development efficiency [33] - Texas Instruments is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire Synaptics for approximately $7 billion, which could impact the semiconductor industry [34] - Waymo secured $16 billion in funding to expand its robotaxi services to over 20 cities globally, maintaining its control under Alphabet [39] - Oracle's $5 billion mandatory convertible preferred stock offering was significantly oversubscribed, indicating strong market interest despite a 2.9% drop in its stock price [40]

传奇投资者瑞・达利欧（Ray Dalio）周二警告称，在地缘政治紧张局势持续发酵、资本市场波动加剧 的背景下，世界正处于资本战争的边缘。 达利欧在迪拜世界政府峰会上接受CNBC记者丹・墨菲（Dan Murphy）的采访时表示，全球已濒临资本 战争的边缘——所谓资本战争，是指资金被武器化，各国通过贸易禁运、封锁资本市场准入、将债务持 有权作为杠杆等手段展开博弈。 "我们正站在边缘，"达利欧称，"这意味着尚未陷入资本战争，但已离其非常近；而由于各方相互的担 忧，我们极易跨过这道门槛，跌入资本战争的泥潭。" 他援引了近期特朗普政府推动将丹麦属地格陵兰岛纳入美国管控引发的紧张局势升级，作为这一观点的 佐证。 达利欧警示，持有美元计价资产的欧洲投资者正心生"担忧"，他们害怕自身可能遭到制裁；而"美国方 面也会产生相应的担忧，担心无法获得欧洲的资本流入，或是欧洲不再增持美国资产"。 据路透社援引花旗集团的研究数据，去年4月至11月期间，欧洲投资者占海外购买美国国债总额的 80%。 "资本、资金，是关键所在，"达利欧周二表示，"如今我们看到资本管制正在全球各地落地，而谁会成 为受影响的一方，仍是未知之数。所以我们确实身处边 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion emphasizes the interconnectedness of debt cycles, capital flows, domestic politics, and international conflicts, highlighting the increasing complexity and risks in the current economic environment [4][5]. Group 1: Debt Dynamics - Debt operates similarly for individuals and governments, with the ability to increase debt being manageable when it is low relative to income. However, as debt increases, it constrains spending and leads to financial issues [5]. - The relationship between debt and assets is highlighted, where one party's debt is another's asset, creating expectations for returns on bonds held [5]. - The current global debt situation is concerning, with increasing geopolitical tensions adding layers of risk, leading to potential capital wars and concerns over dollar-denominated debt [5]. Group 2: Shift to Gold - Central banks are altering their reserves, increasingly turning to gold, which is now considered the second-largest currency [6]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to central banks and sovereign wealth funds accumulating gold as a safer form of currency [6]. - The historical context of currency systems shows that currencies either tie to hard assets like gold or are fiat currencies, with the latter being prone to collapse under excessive debt [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Gold is viewed as a fundamental currency with lower risks of devaluation or confiscation, making it a preferred asset during financial crises [7]. - The historical patterns of currency collapse suggest that fiat currencies lead to inflation and higher gold prices, reinforcing gold's role as a stable store of value [7]. - The recommended allocation of gold in an investment portfolio is between 5% to 15%, depending on other assets and the investor's risk tolerance [9]. Group 4: Tactical vs. Strategic Allocation - The approach to gold should be strategic rather than tactical, focusing on long-term asset allocation rather than short-term market timing [8]. - Investors are advised to determine their gold allocation based on strategic asset allocation principles rather than reacting to market fluctuations [9]. - Tactical adjustments to gold holdings should be considered during periods of high risk, such as currency crises or economic conflicts, while maintaining a baseline allocation during stable periods [9].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ A股三大指数今日涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指涨0.27%，收报4151.24点；深证成指涨0.09%，收报14342.89点；创业板指跌0.57%，收报3323.56点。 沪深京三市成交额达到29926亿，较昨日放量709亿。 行业板块涨少跌多，贵金属、珠宝首饰、采掘行业、有色金属、小金属、煤炭行业涨幅居前，光伏设备、医疗器械、医疗服务、生物制品、航天航 空板块跌幅居前。 个股方面，上涨股票数量超过1700只，逾80只股票涨停。贵金属与有色金属板块掀涨停潮，中金黄金、四川黄金、湖南黄金、西部黄金、湖南白 银、白银有色、北方铜业、铜陵有色、中国铝业等多只股票涨停。 01 贵金属继续狂飙！ 今天现货黄金日内暴涨100美元，现货黄金站上5280美元/盎司，日内涨1.91%。纽约期金站上5310美元/盎司，日内涨3.71%。本月以来累计涨超970 美元，累计涨幅超22%。 A股贵金属板块中中金黄金、四川黄金、湖南黄金、西部黄金、湖南白银、白银有色涨停！白银LOF涨停，本月累计涨幅112%，溢价率49.49%。 | 晓程科技 | 70.60 +20.01% | | 233.89 | | ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant market volatility triggered by Japan's fiscal concerns and the U.S. claim over Greenland, leading to a sell-off in both U.S. and Japanese financial markets [1][2] - Japan's total debt has reached 240% of its GDP, and the proposed tax cuts by the government are expected to increase fiscal risks, causing a spike in the yield of 30-year Japanese government bonds by over 25 basis points in a single day [1][2] - The article highlights that the current situation is not a liquidity crisis but a re-evaluation of Japan's fiscal credit risk, as the government seeks to implement tax cuts while the market reacts negatively [1][2] Group 2 - The prolonged period of quantitative easing in Japan has created structural vulnerabilities, with rising bond yields not strengthening the yen but instead leading to its depreciation due to declining fiscal credibility [2][3] - The U.S. financial market's liquidity is heavily influenced by low-yield yen carry trades, and the U.S. government's aggressive stance on Greenland has raised concerns about potential fractures in U.S.-European relations [2][3] - The article notes that both the U.S. and Japan are facing systemic risks due to their reliance on quantitative easing, which is undermining their monetary credibility and prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market turmoil in the US and Japan is driven by Japan's fiscal policy changes and the US's aggressive stance on Greenland, leading to significant financial market volatility and concerns over credit risk in both countries [1][2][3] Group 1: Japan's Fiscal Policy and Market Reaction - Japan's Prime Minister announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives and proposed tax cuts, raising concerns about increasing fiscal risks as Japan's debt reaches 240% of GDP [1] - The announcement led to a sharp sell-off in Japanese long-term bonds, with the 30-year bond yield rising over 25 basis points in a single day [1] - The market's reaction is not a liquidity crisis but a reassessment of Japan's fiscal credit risk, as the government seeks to implement tax cuts while facing high debt levels [1][2] Group 2: Impact on Global Markets - The low-yield Japanese yen, a major currency for arbitrage trading, has weakened due to rising bond yields and declining fiscal credibility, which may lead to increased inflation and pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [2] - The US financial market is also affected by concerns over the US's hardline stance on Greenland, which has raised fears of a rift in US-European relations, prompting potential retaliatory measures from European countries [2][3] - The possibility of the EU selling off its $10 trillion in US assets could lead to significant market turmoil, as both the US and Japan face systemic risks due to their reliance on quantitative easing and accumulated fiscal risks [3] Group 3: Shift in Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly turning to gold and other precious metals as a hedge against systemic risks arising from the credit issues in the US and Japan [3] - Chinese assets are being viewed as a safe haven, prompting China to accelerate the opening of its capital account and the internationalization of the renminbi, while also focusing on domestic reforms to ensure stable economic growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Danish pension fund AkademikerPension has initiated a significant move by announcing the liquidation of its $100 million holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds, signaling a potential shift in European capital away from the dollar amid rising geopolitical tensions and U.S. fiscal concerns [1][5][11]. Group 1: Fund Actions and Implications - AkademikerPension, managing approximately $25 billion, is known for its high ethical investment standards and serves 170,000 Danish academic professionals [3][5]. - The fund's decision to divest from U.S. government bonds is primarily driven by concerns over the deteriorating fiscal situation of the U.S. government, with a budget deficit reaching $1.78 trillion last year [5][11]. - The liquidation is seen as a symbolic warning of European capital's potential withdrawal from the dollar, despite the relatively small scale of the divestment in the context of the $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market [5][12]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 8.1 basis points, reaching a high of 4.31%, marking a five-month peak [6][8]. - The U.S. stock market reacted negatively, with major indices experiencing significant declines, and the VIX index, which measures market volatility, surged to its highest level since November [8][18]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The European nations collectively hold over $12 trillion in dollar-denominated assets, with approximately 40% of foreign-held U.S. Treasury securities owned by European countries [12][14]. - Analysts warn that if European investors reduce their exposure to U.S. assets, it could lead to uncontrollable increases in U.S. interest rates, exacerbating the fiscal challenges faced by the U.S. government [14][19]. - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with potential for increased financial conflict as highlighted by Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, who cautioned about the risks of a "capital war" [17][19].

Core Viewpoint - The Danish pension fund AkademikerPension plans to fully divest from U.S. Treasury bonds due to concerns over the U.S. fiscal situation and escalating tensions between Denmark and the U.S. regarding Greenland [3][5][9]. Group 1: Financial Concerns - AkademikerPension's decision to divest is primarily driven by worries about the U.S. government's financial health, which is described as "terrible" amid a backdrop of a debt crisis [3][10]. - The U.S. budget deficit reached $1.78 trillion last year, with only a slight decrease of just over 2% expected compared to the fiscal year 2024, despite significant tariff policies implemented by President Trump [4][10]. - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to Aa1 in May, citing budget deficits and high borrowing costs in a high-interest-rate environment [4][10]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - The divestment coincides with increasing tensions between the U.S. and Denmark, as President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on European countries if Denmark does not sell Greenland to the U.S. [3][5][10]. - European leaders are reportedly considering retaliatory tariffs and other economic measures in response to Trump's policies, raising concerns among investors about potential large-scale asset sales of U.S. holdings by European nations [11]. - The geopolitical turmoil has led to a significant rise in U.S. and global bond yields, indicating heightened investor anxiety, with the dollar and U.S. stock markets declining while gold prices reached historic highs [11].