俄罗斯通过"印度清算通道"实现制裁下的资源变现，维持全球第二大原油出口国地位。乌克兰袭击与三方会晤预期引发油价波动，俄油出口将维持"西减东 增"格局，G7油价上限机制面临印度反制。邓正红软实力表示，市场担忧俄罗斯出口石油面临中断风险，石油软实力盘整上行，周一（8月18日）国际油价 走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油9月期货结算价每桶涨0.62美元至63.42美元，涨幅0.99%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油10月期货 结算价每桶涨0.75美元至66.60美元，涨幅1.14%。美国总统特朗普与乌克兰总统泽连斯基及欧洲领导人于美国当地时间18日在华盛顿会晤。特朗普当地时间 17日晚在社交媒体上说，乌克兰"收不回"克里米亚，也无法加入北约。乌克兰总统泽连斯基18日在美国白宫同美国总统特朗普会晤前对媒体说，乌克兰已经 做好同美国、俄罗斯领导人举行三方会晤的准备。 【人物简介】邓正红，中国软实力之父，创立邓正红软实力思想和智库，建立软实力理论、软实力宇宙哲学、软实力函数、软实力指数工具、软实力油价分 析模型、商业模式效度齿轮结构和基于价值创新的科学-技术-产业三椎体模型，开创能源软实力、低碳软实力和产业软 ...

Group 1: Soft Power Ranking - China's soft power ranking has risen from third in 2024 to second globally, with significant growth in six out of eight pillars and two-thirds of specific indicators [1] - The report highlights China's cultural influence and innovation as key drivers of this soft power enhancement [2] Group 2: Cultural Influence and Digital Media - The rise of Chinese digital cultural products, including web series, literature, and games, has broken cultural barriers and showcased China's cultural appeal and competitiveness [3] - By the end of November 2024, approximately 6,000 translated Chinese web novels were available on overseas platforms, attracting nearly 300 million users [2] - The sales revenue of Chinese self-developed games in overseas markets reached $18.557 billion in 2024, with titles like "Genshin Impact" and "Black Myth: Wukong" gaining international acclaim [2] Group 3: Tourism and Economic Impact - In the first half of 2025, domestic tourism in China reached 3.285 billion trips, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, with total consumption exceeding 3.15 trillion yuan [3] - The number of foreign tourists benefiting from tax refunds in China increased by over 90%, indicating a growing interest in the Chinese market [3] Group 4: Development Philosophy - China's development philosophy has gained international recognition, with many developing countries seeking to learn from China's experiences in poverty alleviation and economic growth [4] - The transition from poverty alleviation to rural revitalization has seen significant improvements, with rural residents' disposable income in poverty-stricken counties increasing by 24.7% since 2021 [4] Group 5: Global Initiatives and Cooperation - The concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind has been embraced globally, with over 100 countries and regions responding positively to China's initiatives [6] - The Belt and Road Initiative promotes global cooperation and economic growth, establishing new models for international collaboration [7]

Group 1 - International oil prices are under pressure due to a combination of supply-demand imbalance, policy negotiations, and geopolitical risks [1][2] - U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3 million barrels to 426.7 million barrels, contrary to analysts' expectations of a decrease of 275,000 barrels [1][2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for oil supply growth in 2025 while lowering demand predictions, indicating a potential record oversupply in 2026 [1][2] Group 2 - The core contradiction in oil prices has shifted from being dominated by geopolitical risks to a hard landing in supply-demand rebalancing, establishing a short-term downward trend [2] - If U.S. refinery utilization rates decline as expected in late August, combined with lower-than-expected Indian purchases, oil prices may hit new annual lows [2] - The increase in U.S. crude oil inventories and net imports, along with subdued exports due to tariff policies, creates rigid short-term oversupply pressure [2][3] Group 3 - Tariff policies have disrupted trade, leading to decreased U.S. crude oil export competitiveness, which undermines the country's energy soft power [3] - The threat of secondary sanctions is rising, with U.S. Treasury Secretary warning that if the upcoming U.S.-Russia meeting fails, sanctions may escalate [3] - The geopolitical risk premium is diminishing, as the upcoming U.S.-Russia meeting is expected to address the ongoing regional conflict, but the effectiveness of the meeting remains uncertain [3]

Group 1 - The resurgence of inbound tourism in China is attributed to visa-free policies and the country's growing global appeal, as highlighted by a recent Pew Research Center report showing an increase in positive perceptions of China worldwide [1] - The cultural richness of China, exemplified by cities like Beijing, Jinggangshan, and Shanghai, reflects a blend of historical depth, revolutionary heritage, and modern vitality, showcasing the integration of hard and soft power [1] - The ongoing cultural revival in China is characterized by the successful fusion of ancient traditions with modern innovations, emphasizing the importance of preserving historical cultural foundations while adapting them for contemporary life [2] Group 2 - China's economic stability amidst external challenges is supported by continuous upgrades in manufacturing, rapid advancements in research and development, and effective macroeconomic policies that bolster both domestic and international trade [3] - Recent adjustments by multiple institutions to increase China's economic growth forecasts indicate a positive outlook for the country's economic vitality and resilience [3] - Understanding China's modernization requires a deep exploration of its historical roots, revolutionary memories, and active practices, positioning China as a "stabilizing anchor" for the world and a contributor to a multipolar future [3]

Core Insights - The Thai government is committed to protecting and preserving the nation's cultural values and natural heritage, ensuring future generations can learn and appreciate them [1] - The government is actively promoting the transformation of cultural heritage into tourism value, positioning it as a key driver for economic growth [1] - Tourism, as a core pillar of Thailand's economy, will enhance national competitiveness and revenue generation through sustainable development of cultural resources [1] Cultural Heritage Ranking - Thailand has been ranked as the richest country in cultural heritage in Asia and 8th globally by U.S. News & World Report for 2024, based on five core factors: accessibility of culture, glorious history, cuisine, cultural tourist attractions, and geographical appeal [1] - Despite tourism revenue accounting for only about 7% of GDP, Thailand remains one of the countries with the highest visitor numbers globally [1] Economic Impact - The ranking reflects Thailand's strong "soft power," attracting global tourists to experience its historical charm, culture, cuisine, monuments, temples, and traditional Thai massage [1] - This aligns with government policies aimed at transforming the cultural industry into a significant force on the international stage, turning "Thai charm" into a powerful economic engine for substantial revenue generation [1]

规则重构中的软实力损耗。当前油价稳定在两个月低点，深层反映市场对"制裁工具化"的适应性调整。美国试图通过对俄油限价维持能源主导权，但催 生"影子油轮"等规避机制，反而削弱制裁效力。俄罗斯通过乌克兰博弈重塑能源流通规则，使欧佩克联盟加速推进增产计划（9月日增54.7万桶），形成"地 缘对冲增产"现象。这种规则体系分裂导致油价陷入窄幅震荡，布伦特原油每桶68美元关口已成为多空力量博弈中枢。 投资者紧盯特朗普与普京会晤细节，油价微涨但前景承压。欧佩克增产与需求疲软形成对冲，地缘博弈加剧市场波动，短期震荡成主旋律。邓正红软实力表 示，投资者等待有关美国总统唐纳德•特朗普与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京会晤的更多细节，以判断原油市场供应前景，石油软实力运行平稳，周一（8月 11日）国际油价微幅走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油9月期货结算价每桶涨0.08美元至63.96美元，涨幅0.13%；伦敦洲际交易所 布伦特原油10月期货结算价每桶涨0.04美元至66.63美元，涨幅0.06%。油价稳定在近两个月的低点附近，市场正等待特朗普与普京的会晤，此次会晤可能为 乌克兰协议铺平道路，并缓解对俄原油的制裁。不过预 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the renewed tensions in US-China relations following Trump's return to the White House, particularly focusing on the imposition of 10% tariffs on all Chinese goods in early 2025 [1][16] - Joseph Nye, a prominent scholar in international relations, warns that a zero-sum game approach between the US and China could lead to severe strategic miscalculations, emphasizing that the world has changed since the Cold War [3][5][12] - The article highlights the interdependence of the US and Chinese economies, noting that in 2024, the trade volume between the two countries reached $688.3 billion, with over 70,000 American companies operating in China [16][18] Group 2 - The article outlines the challenges faced by US companies in abandoning the Chinese market, as many rely heavily on it for sales, with major exports like soybeans and cotton significantly dependent on China [18][22] - It emphasizes China's advantages, including a large domestic market, a comprehensive industrial system, and efficient government policies that allow for quick responses to economic challenges [22][24] - The concept of "positive-sum game" is introduced, where cooperation is encouraged to expand mutual benefits, contrasting with the adversarial approach taken by the US [26][28] Group 3 - The article warns of the potential for small conflicts to escalate into larger crises, drawing parallels to historical events that led to global wars, highlighting the need for strategic foresight [30][35] - It suggests that the US's outdated strategic thinking is causing self-inflicted harm, as decision-makers fail to recognize the interconnected nature of the current global economy [43][45] - The article concludes with a call for US policymakers to heed Nye's warnings and work towards stabilizing US-China relations for mutual benefit [45]

战略定力：坚守长期逻辑的决策韧性。市场情绪扰动：欧佩克联盟增产、非农数据疲软、印度采购暂停等事件引发短期恐慌，但高盛维持原预测不变。定力 支撑点：结构性要素优先，美国经济潜在增长率放缓、经合组织（OECD）库存累积速度加快等慢变量，权重高于地缘政治快变量；核心假设稳固：俄罗斯 供应韧性（折扣策略+中印需求）、美国衰退风险可控，构成预测基石。软实力体现：在信息过载的市场中，高盛通过拒绝短期噪音干扰，彰显其基于深度 研究的战略自信，强化市场对其预测的信任黏性。 资源整合力：多维风险对冲的决策智慧。核心逻辑：软实力的基础在于对分散资源的系统化整合能力。高盛维持油价预测不变的核心，在于其将供应中断风 险（俄罗斯、伊朗制裁）与需求下行风险（美国关税、经济疲软）进行动态对冲评估。供应端：俄罗斯折扣收窄、印度暂停采购等地缘事件可能削减全球原 油供给（上行风险）。需求端：美国经济衰退预期、制造业萎缩、就业市场降温可能抑制石油消费（下行风险）。软实力体现：高盛未因单方面信息（如欧 佩克联盟增产或地缘冲突）调整预测，而是通过整合多维矛盾变量，形成风险平衡的判断，体现了金融机构的系统性资源评估能力。 环境适应力：动态响应市场不确定 ...

特朗普威胁对俄实施二级制裁加剧原油市场动荡，短期推高油价但长期难改供需再平衡趋势。中俄印能源联盟削弱美国制裁效力，欧佩克增产与需求见顶将 压制油价上行空间。邓正红软实力表示，美国总统特朗普重申若俄罗斯未能与乌克兰达成停火协议，美国可能会对其施加经济惩罚，加剧市场对供应趋紧的 担忧，石油软实力向上运行，周二（7月29日）国际油价走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油9月期货结算价每桶涨2.50美元至69.21美 元，涨幅3.75%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油9月期货结算价每桶涨2.47美元至72.51美元，涨幅3.53%。 地缘软实力博弈重构能源格局，多极联盟的抗制裁韧性。中俄印已构建去美元化能源结算体系（本币结算达90%），形成资源自主权软实力联盟。三国明确 表态继续购买俄油，削弱了美国二级制裁的实际威慑力，使政策软实力压制面临结构性失效。欧佩克联盟的调节作用，欧佩克计划8月日增产54.8万桶，其 供应调节能力构成关键市场平衡软实力。该联盟与美俄形成"政策压制-资源自主"的三方博弈，其增产决策将直接影响制裁引发的供应缺口能否被填补。 供需软实力的动态平衡，需求端季节性见顶。当前全球汽油消费旺季接近 ...

Group 1 - The core issue in the current oil market is the interplay between policy soft power suppression and geopolitical risk premium, with the market in a rebalancing phase between policy suppression (US and EU) and resource autonomy (OPEC and Russia) [2] - Trump's erratic tariff policies are causing concerns about economic recession, leading to a withdrawal of long positions in oil and an increase in short positions, reflecting investor pessimism about demand [2][3] - OPEC's production increase expectations and the performance of major Asian oil importers, China and India, are critical variables influencing oil prices [1][2] Group 2 - OPEC predicts that by 2025, daily oil demand from non-OECD Asian countries will increase by 610,000 barrels, with China contributing 210,000 barrels and India 160,000 barrels [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has a more conservative forecast, estimating an increase of 81,000 barrels per day for China and 92,000 barrels for India, with a total increase of 352,000 barrels per day for non-OECD Asian countries [1] - Geopolitical risks, such as the ongoing Middle East conflicts and supply disruptions in Iraq, are providing structural support for the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices [3]