2025年，适度宽松的货币政策为经济回升向好和金融市场稳定运行营造了适宜的货币金融环境。中央经 济工作会议明确2026年要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，人民银行将全面贯彻落实会议精神，加大逆周 期和跨周期调节力度，促进经济稳定增长和物价合理回升。一是总量方面，灵活高效运用降准降息等多 种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目 标相匹配。2025年社会融资规模中，债券等贷款以外的融资方式占比已超过50%，预计2026年增速仍将 超过全部社会融资规模增速。二是价格方面，健全市场化的利率形成、调控和传导机制，理顺政策利率 向各类市场利率的传导关系，进一步做好明示贷款综合融资成本工作，推动规范融资中间费用，促进社 会综合融资成本低位运行。综合施策、稳定预期，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。三是 结构方面，发挥好结构性货币政策工具的激励引导作用，优化工具管理，继续做好金融"五篇大文章"， 加力支持扩大内需重点领域。四是传导方面，做好政策沟通和预期引导，加强货币政策和财政、产业等 政策在需求管理、结构调整方面的协调配合，进一步畅通传导机制。 1月5日至6日，中国人 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance on the iron ore market, with a reminder to pay attention to risk control [2]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The I2605 contract increased in price with rising positions. The macro - environment features a continued moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, which boosts market confidence. In terms of supply - demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrivals increased. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills increased slightly, and port inventories continued to rise. Although ports are in a stock - piling trend, mill inventories are at a medium - low level, with potential for future stockpiling. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 828.00 yuan/ton, up 27.00 yuan. The position volume is 666,581 hands, up 25,713 hands. The I 5 - 9 contract spread is 23.5 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 15,395 hands, up 4,518 hands. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts are 1,800.00 hands, down 600.00 hands. The Singapore iron ore main contract's quote at 15:00 is 109 US dollars/ton, up 2.53 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 869 yuan/dry ton, up 8 yuan. The price of 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 868 yuan/dry ton, up 7 yuan. The price of 56.5% Chaote powder ore at Jingtang Port is 771 yuan/dry ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 40 yuan, down 20 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (the previous day) is 106.65 US dollars/ton, up 0.85 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 2.97, down 0.07. The estimated import cost is 861 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 3,213.70 tons, down 463.40 tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,824.70 tons, up 96.90 tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 16,721.79 tons, up 101.83 tons. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 8,946.54 tons, up 86.35 tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,054.00 tons, down 77.00 tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) are 22 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 36.56 tons, down 0.25 tons. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 0.00%, down 58.66%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 0.00 tons, down 45.90 tons. The BDI index is 1,830.00, down 21.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 22.20 US dollars/ton, up 0.26 US dollars. The iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.13 US dollars/ton, down 0.17 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 78.96%, up 0.66%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 85.28%, up 0.32%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,987 tons, down 213 tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.95%, up 3.10%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 14.73%, up 2.14%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 17.24%, up 0.80%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 19.72%, up 2.82% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,158.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.1 tons, showing a slight rebound. The current inventory is slightly lower than the average since the fourth quarter. On January 5, Australian iron ore producer Fenix Resources released its Q4 2025 operations update. The company shipped 1.241 million wet tons of iron ore in the quarter, breaking through one million tons in a single quarter for the first time and setting a new record [2].

| | | 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 同比仍缺乏增量。进口方面，印尼 11 月出口量大幅增加，缓解了对印尼供应受限的担忧；不过进口窗口仍 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 保持关闭状态。需求端，近日下游按需采购，库存继续下降，现货升水500元/吨；LME库存持稳，现货升 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 水上涨。技术面，持仓增量价格上涨，多头氛围增强。观点参考：预计沪锡短期强势运行，测试前历史高 免责声明 点，上方关注36-38。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 沪锡产业日报 2026-01-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡( ...

高盛近期的报告认为，2026年中国央行可能进行两次10个基点的降息。 中新社北京1月7日电 (陶思阅)2026年中国人民银行工作会议近日召开，会议释放了一系列政策信号。中 国央行表示，2026年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升金融服务实体 经济高质量发展质效。 围绕货币政策，会议作出一系列部署：把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考 量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，引导 金融总量合理增长、信贷投放均衡，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目 标相匹配。 在东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青看来，2026年中国央行或主要通过下调政策利率、结构性货币政策工具 利率和个人住房公积金贷款利率，来引导企业和居民贷款利率下行。 这意味着2026年居民房贷利率、消费贷利率和经营贷利率都有下调空间，政府和企业债券融资成本也会 跟进下调。王青预计，2026年中国央行或将降息两次，降息幅度在20至30个基点。 汇丰银行环球投资研究大中华区首席经济学家刘晶表示，新型政策性金融工具或将继续发挥"准财政"工 具的作用，2026 ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：宏观预期提振情绪 盘面震荡反弹 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2026 年 1 月 7 日 逻辑：近日央行工作会议强调，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，继续实施 适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和 跨周期调节力度；把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的 重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。刺激黑色金属板 块情绪回暖。昨日， ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy for 2026, focusing on enhancing financial services for high-quality economic development and deepening financial reforms and higher-level opening-up [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Development - The PBOC will implement a flexible and efficient use of various monetary policy tools, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, to maintain ample liquidity and support balanced credit growth [2][3]. - The focus will be on promoting high-quality economic development and a reasonable recovery of prices as key considerations for monetary policy [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Risk Management - The PBOC aims to effectively manage financial risks in key areas by enhancing macro-prudential management and maintaining financial stability [3]. - A mechanism will be established to provide liquidity to non-bank institutions under specific scenarios, and there will be a focus on strengthening regulatory enforcement in financial markets [3]. Group 3: Financial Reform and Opening-Up - The PBOC will continue to optimize mechanisms like "Bond Connect" and "Swap Connect," supporting the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center and enhancing Hong Kong's status [3]. - There will be encouragement for more eligible foreign entities to issue Panda bonds, facilitating cross-border financial services [3]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Management - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) emphasizes building a more convenient, open, secure, and intelligent foreign exchange management system for 2026 [5]. - Key tasks include deepening foreign exchange facilitation reforms, supporting the development of new trade formats like cross-border e-commerce, and enhancing the management of trade credit reporting [5]. Group 5: Safeguarding Foreign Exchange Reserves - The focus will be on ensuring the safety, liquidity, and value preservation of foreign exchange reserves, with plans to revise the Foreign Exchange Management Regulations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy for 2026, focusing on enhancing financial services for high-quality economic development and deepening financial reforms and higher-level opening-up [3] Group 1: PBOC's Key Work Areas for 2026 - The PBOC will focus on seven key areas, including the flexible and efficient use of various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [3][4] - The PBOC aims to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate and optimize mechanisms like "Bond Connect" and "Swap Connect" [3][4] - The central bank will enhance financial support for key sectors such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [4] Group 2: Financial Risk Management - The PBOC will leverage macro-prudential management to mitigate financial risks in key areas and strengthen regulatory enforcement in financial markets [4] - A mechanism will be established to provide liquidity to non-bank institutions under specific scenarios [4] Group 3: Financial Reform and Opening-Up - The PBOC will continue to optimize the "Bond Connect" and "Swap Connect" mechanisms and support the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center [4] - The central bank will facilitate the use of the Renminbi in trade and investment and improve cross-border financial services [4] Group 4: Foreign Exchange Management - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) aims to create a more convenient, open, secure, and intelligent foreign exchange management system in 2026 [7] - Key tasks include deepening foreign exchange facilitation reforms and steadily advancing high-level institutional opening in the foreign exchange sector [8] - SAFE will support the development of new trade formats like cross-border e-commerce and enhance trade credit reporting management [8]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy for 2026, focusing on enhancing financial services for high-quality economic development and deepening financial reforms and higher-level opening-up [1][2]. Monetary Policy - The PBOC will implement various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, to maintain ample liquidity and support balanced credit growth [2][3]. - The central bank aims to keep the RMB exchange rate stable at a reasonable level while preventing excessive fluctuations [2][3]. Financial Services - The PBOC plans to improve the financial support framework for key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [3]. - There will be a focus on enhancing the bond market, particularly the "technology board," and increasing credit support for consumer services and agriculture [3][4]. Financial Risk Management - The PBOC will strengthen macro-prudential management and financial stability measures, including establishing mechanisms for providing liquidity to non-bank institutions under specific scenarios [3][4]. - Continuous efforts will be made to combat illegal activities in financial markets and enhance regulatory enforcement [3][4]. Financial Reform and Opening-Up - The PBOC will optimize mechanisms like "Bond Connect" and "Swap Connect," support the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, and facilitate the use of RMB in trade and investment [3][4]. - The central bank encourages more eligible foreign entities to issue Panda bonds [3][4]. Foreign Exchange Management - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) aims to create a more convenient, open, secure, and intelligent foreign exchange management system in 2026 [5][6]. - Key tasks include deepening foreign exchange facilitation reforms, supporting the development of new trade formats like cross-border e-commerce, and enhancing the management of trade credit reporting [6]. External Risk Mitigation - SAFE will strengthen macro-prudential management and expectation management to maintain a stable foreign exchange market amid external shocks [6].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy, enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to support high-quality economic development and financial stability [2][4]. Group 1: PBOC's Key Work for 2026 - The PBOC will focus on seven key areas in 2026, including the effective use of various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [2][4]. - The PBOC aims to maintain liquidity and ensure a relatively loose financing environment, guiding reasonable growth in total financial volume and balanced credit allocation [4]. - The central bank will work to stabilize the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level while preventing excessive fluctuations [4]. Group 2: Enhancing Financial Services - The PBOC plans to improve the financial policy framework to support key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [5]. - There will be a focus on high-quality development of the bond market, particularly in the "technology board" sector, and increasing credit support for consumer services [5]. - The PBOC will enhance macro-prudential management and financial stability tools to mitigate risks in key financial sectors [5]. Group 3: Financial Reform and Opening Up - The PBOC will continue to optimize mechanisms like "Bond Connect" and "Swap Connect" to facilitate international financial cooperation [5]. - Support will be provided for the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center and the consolidation of Hong Kong's status [5]. - The PBOC encourages more eligible foreign entities to issue panda bonds, enhancing cross-border financial services [5]. Group 4: Foreign Exchange Management - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) emphasizes building a more convenient, open, secure, and intelligent foreign exchange management system [8]. - Key tasks for 2026 include deepening foreign exchange facilitation reforms and supporting the development of new trade formats like cross-border e-commerce [8]. - SAFE will implement policies for overseas lending and domestic foreign exchange loan management to ensure the safety and liquidity of foreign exchange reserves [10].

促进社会综合融资成本低位运行 据央行发布，2026年中国人民银行工作会议于1月5日-6日召开。会议强调，2026年继续实施适度宽松的货币政 策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度；着力扩大内需、优化供给，防范化解风 险、稳定社会预期。记者梳理发现，本次会议确定的2026年工作总基调基本与中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025 年第四季度例会表述一致。 本次会议央行具体部署了2026年七项重点工作。会议强调，2026年把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货 币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽 松，引导金融总量合理增长、信贷投放均衡，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目 标相匹配。 1月6日，央行发布2026年中国人民银行工作会议内容。会议总结了2025年央行货币政策执行成效，并部署2026年 七项重点工作。 会议提出，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策的集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力 度；加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融支持。2025年，央行支持发挥汇金公司"类平准基 ...