（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京12月2日电欧洲央行管理委员会成员科赫尔在接受《信使报》采访时表示，欧洲央行不需 要对围绕其2%通胀目标的微小偏差做出反应，而应该保留实力，以便在政策变化变得必要时能够做出 反应。 科赫尔说："我们不能也不应该通过货币政策进行微观管理。我们正在金融市场看到非常高的估值，尤 其是在美国的AI相关股票中。因此，确保金融稳定至关重要。"科赫尔表示，欧洲银行非常稳定，但问 题可能会从美国溢出，这需要保持一定程度的警惕。 ...

韩国央行周四宣布，将7天期回购利率维持在2.5%不变，连续第四次按兵不动。这一决定符合市场预 期，24位受访经济学家中有21位此前预测利率将保持不变，其余3位则预计降息25个基点。 韩国央行行长李昌镛将于下午举行新闻发布会，预计将就政策利率路径、委员投票情况及房地产与汇率 风险作出进一步说明。市场关注其是否仍将宽松视为可行选项，或转向更强调金融稳定的立场。 同日，韩国央行更新了宏观经济预测：将2025年实际GDP增长预期上调至1.0%，2026年增长预期由8月 预测的1.6%上调至1.8%。这一调整主要反映第三季度在强劲出口和私人消费稳步复苏支撑下的产出表 现。通胀方面，2026年消费者物价指数（CPI）预测从1.9%上调至2.1%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 尽管整体价格趋势基本符合预期，但10月份核心CPI同比上涨2.4%，为2024年7月以来最快增速，略高 于预期。央行指出，未来通胀"预计将逐渐放缓"，理由包括油价同比下行及旅游成本趋于稳定。 另一位分析师Hyosun Kwon则认为，当前暂停"看起来不像是暂停，而更像是宽松周期的结束"，因更坚 实的增长和房价上行压力使政策制定者有空间等待。 韩国央行表示 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.50%, aligning with market expectations and reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Growth Projections - The Bank of Korea forecasts a GDP growth rate of 1.0% for this year and 1.8% for next year, with domestic demand expected to recover primarily through consumption [7][9]. - Recent surveys indicate an upward revision of growth forecasts, with expectations for this year's growth increasing from 0.9% to 1.0% and next year's from 1.6% to between 1.8% and 1.9% [7][9]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Considerations - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged is influenced by rising inflation, ongoing economic improvements driven by consumption and exports, and the need to assess domestic and international policy conditions [7][9]. - The Bank of Korea's cautious stance on further monetary easing is attributed to high household debt levels, risks in the real estate market, and recent signs of rising inflation [10]. Group 3: Financial Stability Risks - The monetary policy committee has highlighted the need to be vigilant regarding risks associated with housing prices, household debt, and increased volatility in exchange rates [9][10]. - The depreciation of the Korean won against the US dollar has raised concerns, with local funds increasing overseas investments, potentially triggering actions from the National Pension Service [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the financial stability vulnerabilities in the Eurozone remain high due to uncertainties surrounding trade agreements and the long-term impacts of U.S. tariff policies [1] - The report highlights that risks emanating from the U.S. have become a significant macro-financial vulnerability factor, particularly due to persistent large fiscal deficits and rising debt servicing costs [1] - Concerns regarding the credibility of U.S. fiscal policy are exacerbated by a substantial current account deficit, which undermines the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasury securities and contributes to a weakening dollar [1] Group 2 - The potential for a resurgence in trade policy uncertainty is noted, which could further impact financial stability in the Eurozone [1] - The depreciation of the dollar may amplify the effects of U.S. tariffs on Eurozone exporters, indicating a direct link between U.S. economic policies and European market conditions [1]

新华社法兰克福11月26日电（记者马悦然）欧洲中央银行26日发布的最新一期金融稳定评估报告指出， 由于贸易协议的不确定性及关税对经济金融的长期影响，欧元区的金融稳定脆弱性仍处于高位。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has indicated that financial stability risks in the region are "rising," with high asset valuations susceptible to significant adjustments, and fiscal challenges in some countries potentially testing investor confidence [1] Group 1: Financial Stability Risks - The ECB's latest financial stability assessment report highlights that market sentiment could shift suddenly due to deteriorating growth prospects or disappointing news regarding artificial intelligence (AI) applications [1] - Concerns over high public debt in some developed economies may exert pressure on the global bond market, potentially leading to shifts in international capital flows and impacting currencies [1]

Core Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) has highlighted that financial stability vulnerabilities in the Eurozone remain high due to uncertainties surrounding trade agreements and the long-term impacts of tariffs [1][2] Group 1: Financial Stability Risks - Financial stability vulnerabilities are still at elevated levels, with high asset valuations posing a risk of significant adjustments that could challenge non-bank financial institutions [2] - The fiscal outlook for some developed countries is under pressure, raising concerns in the market that could impact the global bond market and weaken the Eurozone's competitiveness [2] - The banking system faces credit and financing risks, particularly related to exposure to companies sensitive to tariffs, which could challenge banks during economic downturns [2][3] Group 2: Economic and Structural Challenges - Despite improvements in the balance sheets of Eurozone businesses and households, the corporate sector remains vulnerable to tariff impacts, which could affect household debt repayment capacity [3] - Structural challenges such as slow digitalization, low productivity, population aging, and climate change may pressure asset balance sheets and increase financing costs [2] - The ECB emphasizes the importance of maintaining and enhancing the resilience of the financial system in the current uncertain macro-financial and policy environment [4]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's analysis predicts that the Bank of Korea will maintain the benchmark interest rate at 2.5% during the monetary policy meeting on the 28th, due to a complex macroeconomic environment and multiple policy constraints [1] Internal Pressures - The Bank of Korea is cautious about further easing monetary policy, primarily due to three internal pressures: high household debt levels, upward risks in the real estate market, and recent signs of rising inflation [1] - These factors collectively strengthen financial stability considerations, limiting the space for interest rate cuts [1] External Environment - The external environment also diminishes the necessity for an immediate shift to a more accommodative policy [1] - The weakening of the Korean won raises concerns about imported inflation [1] - Additionally, South Korea's GDP growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations, indicating some inherent economic resilience, which reduces the urgency for rate cuts to stimulate growth [1]

Core Insights - The current financial system remains resilient, supported by strong asset positions of households and businesses, as well as adequate capital levels in the banking sector [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's latest Financial Stability Report highlights ongoing risks and vulnerabilities, particularly in asset valuations, the structural shift of corporate lending from traditional banks to private credit, and the increasing role of hedge funds in the U.S. Treasury market [2][5][8] Group 1: Asset Valuation - Asset valuations for stocks, corporate bonds, leveraged loans, and real estate are currently above historical benchmarks, indicating a potential risk of price corrections [5][6] - The risk compensation expectations are at historically low levels, which could either revert to normal, remain subdued, or weaken further [5][6] - Despite the potential for asset price declines, the overall resilience of the financial system suggests that a repeat of systemic failures like those seen during the Great Recession is unlikely [5][6] Group 2: Private Credit Expansion - Private credit has doubled in size over the past five years, raising concerns about the rapid growth of non-bank lending to non-public companies [6][7] - The private credit model allows long-term investors to fund private companies, which may lack access to traditional bank financing, potentially enhancing financial stability and economic growth [6][7] - However, the complexity and interconnectedness of leveraged entities in this space could create pathways for unexpected losses to affect the broader financial system [6][7] Group 3: Hedge Funds in Treasury Market - Hedge funds have significantly increased their holdings in U.S. Treasury securities, with their share rising from 4.6% in Q1 2021 to 10.3% in Q1 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [8][9] - The sensitivity of hedge fund positions to market changes poses a risk of liquidity crises if they are forced to sell off large amounts of Treasuries simultaneously [8][9] - The trading strategies employed by hedge funds, particularly relative value strategies, could amplify market instability during periods of stress [8][9] Group 4: Impact of Artificial Intelligence - The rapid development of AI in financial services presents both opportunities and challenges for financial stability, particularly in algorithmic trading [10][11] - Generative AI can analyze vast amounts of data and deploy complex trading strategies, which may introduce risks if not properly monitored [10][11] - While AI has the potential to enhance market efficiency, it also raises concerns about market manipulation and the opacity of decision-making processes [10][11][12]

Group 1 - The interest rate market is still pricing in no rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December [1] - The Japanese Prime Minister indicated plans to issue new bonds for economic funding, but the total bond issuance will be lower than last year [1] - The Japanese Cabinet approved an economic stimulus package exceeding 21 trillion yen [1] Group 2 - SoftBank issued 46 billion yen in bonds, continuing its record-breaking bond issuance trend [1] - Vanke plans to further divest businesses and assets with low strategic relevance to improve cash flow and debt structure [1] - 15 newly issued technology innovation bond ETFs this year have each exceeded 10 billion yuan in scale, with the total bond ETF scale increasing by over 540 billion yuan this year [1] Group 3 - Insurance companies have issued over 70 billion yuan in bonds this year, with perpetual bonds becoming the main source of capital replenishment [1] - China Reinsurance has been approved to issue 4 billion yuan in 10-year redeemable capital replenishment bonds [1] - The Bond Connect Northbound trading recorded a transaction volume of 572.3 billion yuan in October, with an average daily transaction of 31.8 billion yuan [1] Group 4 - Wuhan Holdings successfully issued the second phase of its 2025 technology innovation perpetual corporate bonds [1]