Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a price increase, with rising spot prices and a weakening basis, indicating a potential shift in supply-demand dynamics [1][6]. Supply - Iron element production from January to July increased by 18 million tons, a growth rate of 3.1%, with production levels stabilizing in July compared to June [3]. - The production of rebar and hot-rolled steel has shown stability and slight recovery, with rebar production at 2.11 million tons and hot-rolled steel at 3.23 million tons [3]. Demand - The demand for the five major steel products remained stable year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 0.2%, while production saw a larger decline of 1.3% [4]. - Domestic demand has decreased, but external demand has increased significantly, offsetting the decline in domestic consumption [4]. Inventory - Recent production levels have aligned with demand, leading to a stabilization of inventory levels, with total inventory for the five major materials increasing by 154,000 tons to 13.52 million tons [5]. - Rebar inventory increased by 77,000 tons to 5.46 million tons, while hot-rolled steel inventory rose by 28,000 tons to 3.48 million tons [5]. Cost and Profit - The cost of production is rising due to the recovery of coking coal supply, while steel prices are also increasing, leading to improved profit margins for steel mills [2]. - The current profit ranking for steel products is as follows: billet > hot-rolled > rebar > cold-rolled [2]. Market Outlook - The black metal market is showing signs of recovery, with a balance between supply and demand during the off-season, and expectations of a transition to peak demand [6]. - Short-term inventory pressure is low, and the upcoming shift to peak demand is expected to support steel prices [6].

消息面 在7月份快速上涨后，7月最后一天热卷价格出现下跌，本轮下跌幅度较大，截止到8月1日全国均价为 3455.68元/吨，较7月30日累计下跌67.5元/吨。 本周热卷库存总量为186.18万吨，较上周环比增加6.50万吨(+3.62%)，包含15个城市，共计47个仓库。 8月1日，上期所热轧卷板期货仓单57174吨，环比上个交易日减少598吨。 机构观点 西南期货：热卷基本面大逻辑与螺纹钢没有明显差异，走势或与螺纹钢保持一致。从技术面来看，钢材 期货形态明显转弱，短期或延续回调。策略上，投资者可关注回调后的低位买入机会，注意仓位管理。 申银万国期货： 当前钢厂盈利率持平未明显降低，铁水仍处高位缓慢回落的情况下，钢材供应端压力逐步体现。钢材库 存延续去化，钢材出口虽面临关税和反倾销影响，但钢坯出口保持强劲。整体钢材市场供需矛盾暂不 大。短期出口暂无明显减量，表需数据维持韧性，宏观预期较强带动黑色商品多数出现上涨，钢材市场 供需双弱且库存变化不大，原料端情绪有所回落带动成材阶段性走弱，调整看待，政治局会议结束，地 产方面未有更多表述，盘面有此前预期回落，维持后市震荡偏强看涨格局。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In May, steel production was stable at a high level, with a slight decline in late - May due to some steel mill maintenance. The weekly output of rebar decreased from 2.33 million tons to 2.2 million tons, while that of hot - rolled coil increased from 3.19 million tons to 3.29 million tons. In June, demand weakened and export slowed down, accumulating off - season contradictions [3][14]. - Steel demand will face both internal and external pressures. Construction material demand weakened, and plate demand was weak. Real estate investment was sluggish, and infrastructure was stable but not strong. The apparent demand for rebar dropped to 2.29 million tons. The manufacturing industry was in a contraction range, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances weakened. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil dropped to 3.21 million tons. Export resilience weakened, with steel exports increasing by 8.2% year - on - year from January to April, but the new export order index in May shrank to 42% [3]. - In the next month, steel prices will face continuous pressure. Terminal real estate investment will continue to decline, and due to poor data on new housing starts and construction areas, combined with seasonal patterns, the apparent demand for construction materials will decline. The domestic manufacturing industry will continue to contract, the demand for automobiles and home appliances will slow down, and overseas tariff impacts will lead to weak demand for hot - rolled coils. Overall, steel demand will face both internal and external pressures, and the steel price center is expected to move further down. The market is still concerned about crude steel production control policies [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In May, the steel market was under pressure and declined. After the May Day holiday, steel prices rose and then fell, with weak supply and demand. The blast furnace operating rate remained high, and electric furnaces reduced production due to losses. The demand side was suppressed by the decline in real estate investment. On May 12, the Sino - US tariff negotiation reached an agreement, boosting market sentiment, but the steel price rebound was short - lived. In the second half of the month, steel prices broke through downward after narrow - range fluctuations. Weak reality (declining off - season demand) and weak expectations (weak real estate + export pressure), combined with high supply and cost loosening, drove steel prices down. In June, supply - demand contradictions may further accumulate [8]. 2. Steel Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Steel mills' production is stable, and supply pressure remains high - From January to April, China's pig iron, crude steel, and steel production were 288.85 million tons, 345.35 million tons, and 480.21 million tons respectively, with cumulative year - on - year increases of 0.8%, 0.4%, and 6%. In April, crude steel production decreased by 7.3% month - on - month due to blast furnace maintenance and weak demand. In May, steel production was stable at a high level, with blast furnace hot metal production remaining at around 2.44 million tons per day. The average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel was about 2.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.08%; the weekly output of five major steel products was 8.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The production structure was differentiated, with long - process better than short - process. Electric furnace losses increased, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.2% to 33.8% [14]. 2.2 Steel inventory reduction slowed down, and factory inventory increased - In May, steel inventory continued to decline, but the decline narrowed. The absolute inventory was at a historical low, and the differentiation between varieties intensified. As of June 5, the total inventory of five major steel products was 13.64 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 million tons), the social inventory was 9.31 million tons (a decrease of 0.92 million tons), and the factory inventory was 4.33 million tons (an increase of 0.09 million tons). After the May delivery, the number of warehouse receipts decreased significantly. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil will gradually enter the accumulation cycle [19]. 2.3 Demand enters the off - season, and pressure increases - Construction steel demand is weak and entering the off - season. Real estate investment is sluggish, and infrastructure is stable but not strong. The apparent demand for rebar dropped to 2.29 million tons. The manufacturing industry is in a contraction range, and industries such as automobiles and home appliances are weak. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil dropped to 3.21 million tons. Export resilience weakened, and subsequent exports are under pressure [22]. 2.4 External risks still exist - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. Real estate investment continued to decline, and housing steel - using indicators continued to decline significantly. Infrastructure investment grew steadily, with the issuance of special bonds accelerating. In May, manufacturing steel - using showed internal differentiation and weakening external demand. Steel exports faced short - term pressure relief but were still blocked in the medium term. From January to April 2025, China's cumulative steel imports were 2.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%, and cumulative exports were 37.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [28][31][46]. 3. Market Outlook - Supply side: In May, steel production was stable at a high level. In June, demand weakened and export slowed down, accumulating off - season contradictions. - Demand side: Steel demand will face both internal and external pressures. Construction material demand will weaken, and plate demand will be weak. Overall, steel demand will continue to face double pressures, and the steel price center is expected to move further down. The market is still concerned about crude steel production control policies [48][51].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 更新时间：2025年06月05日08时09分 一、螺纹、热卷 报告导读： 消息面上，有传言称外蒙将上调煤炭资源税至 20%，目前尚没有该国官方消息发布。 特朗普将钢铝关税提高至 50%，可能对钢材出口形成更大的 压力。 目前政策面利多基本兑现，前期中美贸易紧张局势缓解也体现在价格中 。房地产仍处于筑底过程中，对钢材的需求仍边际减弱。上周我的钢 铁公布的数据显示，产量有所回落，厂库下降，社库继续回落，总库存下降，表观需求环比微幅上升，数据对期价有所提振。从需求的季节性规律 看，表观需求高峰期已过，随着雨季和高温天气的到来，需求将进一步走弱。限产传闻对市场提振作用有限。钢企普遍认为，行业确实需要减产， 但近期钢企亏损状况有所改善，企业主动减产的动力偏弱。整体来看，目前市场逐渐由强现实向弱现实转变 ，弱预期也没有发生实质性的改变。从 技术上看，价格跌破了近期的震荡区间，形成向下的有效突破，短线在消息面刺激下的反弹不影响趋势的延续 。 操作建议： 空单持有 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | ...

综述：供需双增下，5月钢价低位宽幅震荡 基本面二维四象 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 投资咨询部 黑色金属小组 研究员：曹帅 从业资格号：F03088816 投资咨询号：Z0019565 初审： 沈欣萌：从业资格号：F3029146 投资咨询号：Z0014147 复审： 李雨馨：从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 数据来源：同花顺，安粮期货投资咨询部 市场分析：市场分析：钢材前期较低迷的基本面已在价格结构中逐步体现，远强 近弱，contango 结构弱化，当前钢材估值中性偏低。从成本库存来看，随着宏 观扰动消退叠加需求修复，原料价格震荡运行，钢材成本中枢动态构建。钢材社 会库存及钢厂库存双双去库。预计钢价 5 月偏强运行，建议逢低偏多思路对待。 一、螺纹钢 4 月行情回顾：关税阴霾下，钢价偏弱震荡 图 1：螺纹钢期货价格走势 数据来源：同花顺，安粮期货投资咨询部 二、螺纹钢市场结构：Congtango 弱化；05 贴水 10，10 贴水 01 三、供给端：开工率及铁水大幅上涨，钢材供应压力增大 数据分析：截至 2025 年 5 月 02 号，Mysteel 调研的 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The steel market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling last week, with minor fluctuations. The production of rebar and hot-rolled coils diverged, with rebar production slightly decreasing and coil production increasing. Rebar continued to reduce inventory, and the supply and demand of hot-rolled coils were also good. However, the impact of increased tariffs on hot-rolled coil demand has not been fully released, and there is still an expectation of weakening demand in the market. Meanwhile, the apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly after reaching its peak, and there is a strong expectation that the demand for building materials has reached its peak. Currently, the supply and demand of steel are in a good state, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The market may continue to fluctuate under the influence of raw material prices and demand expectations [3][6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The steel market rose first and then fell last week, with the iron ore on the raw material side remaining strong. The increase in hot metal data last week supported the ore price. Due to the increase in tariffs, the expectation of weakening steel exports has persisted, causing minor fluctuations in the black market prices [3]. - In terms of industries, rebar production decreased slightly, hot-rolled coil production increased, and the total steel inventory continued to decline. The rebar 2510 contract rose by 25 yuan/ton, a 0.81% increase; the hot-rolled coil 2510 contract rose by 23 yuan/ton, a 0.72% increase; and the iron ore 2509 contract rose by 10 yuan/ton, a 1.14% increase [3]. - The peak rebar demand declined last week, the steel mill capacity slightly decreased, and the total rebar inventory continued to decline. The fundamentals of rebar supply and demand were good, and the inventory reduction cycle continued. However, the peak annual rebar demand may have occurred and may gradually decline later. The capacity of hot-rolled coils continued to increase, demand slightly increased, and the total inventory decreased. The fundamentals of hot-rolled coils should pay attention to the impact of trade policy changes on exports [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, steel supply continued to grow last week. Rebar production decreased slightly, while coil production increased. The capacity of major steel coil products has been continuously recovering recently, while the apparent demand for rebar has declined, and the apparent demand for coils has slightly increased. The total steel inventory decreased [5]. - The sales of building material rebar decreased significantly compared to the previous week, increasing the probability that the annual rebar demand has reached its peak. The weekly production of building material rebar was 2.2911 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons. The weekly production of hot-rolled coils was 3.175 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons. The weekly production of five major steel products was 8.7584 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 31,300 tons. The total inventory of five major steel products was 15.3424 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 504,100 tons [5]. - The demand for rebar decreased by 138,800 tons, the rebar inventory decreased by 308,300 tons, and the steel mill's rebar capacity slightly decreased, maintaining inventory reduction. The hot-rolled coil capacity increased by 31,000 tons, the apparent demand slightly increased by 2,000 tons, and the coil inventory decreased by 68,600 tons [5]. Market Outlook - The steel market may continue to fluctuate under the influence of raw material price costs and demand expectations. Although the supply and demand of steel are currently in a good state, there is an expectation of weakening demand. The impact of increased tariffs on hot-rolled coil demand has not been fully released, and the demand for rebar may have reached its peak [6]. - The hot metal production reached a new high last week, and the supply and demand of raw material ore were balanced, with no downward pressure on prices. The demand for raw material ore remains relatively stable [6].