Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories present a mixed picture, with an increase on July 14 but a decrease in the SHFE inventory compared to last week, remaining neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is trending downwards, suggesting a bearish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players is long and increasing, indicating a bullish sign [2]. - Expectations include a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, geopolitical disturbances, a proposed 50% US copper tariff, and increased market volatility [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of copper's various factors is a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish signals, with complex market expectations influenced by policy, inventory, and geopolitical factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves the co - existence of domestic policy easing and an escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [3]. Spot - Information on spot prices, including the location, mid - price, and price changes, as well as inventory types, totals, and changes, is presented but not fully detailed in the given text [6]. 期现价差 - Not detailed in the provided content Exchange Inventory - Copper inventory on July 14 increased by 900 tons to 109,625 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week [2]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - Not detailed in the provided content Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows detailed data from 2018 - 2024 [20][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons on July 11, while the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, high - level inventory destocking, geopolitical disturbances, and the US proposing a 50% copper tariff, the market volatility will intensify [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall analysis of copper includes multiple aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trends, and main player positions, with different indicators showing different trends [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of the impact on copper prices are not elaborated [3]. Daily Summary - A table is provided to show the intermediate price, change, type, total quantity, and increase/decrease of copper in different places, but the specific data is not filled in [5]. Exchange Inventory - The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week, and on July 11, the copper inventory increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons [2]. Bonded Warehouse Inventory - The bonded warehouse inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fees - The processing fees have declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025, and specific data for China's annual supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 are provided [19][21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot market for copper is weakening, putting pressure on prices [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,430 with a daily decline of 0.22%, and the night - session closing price was 78,320 with a decline of 0.14%. The closing price of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,663 with a decline of 0.20%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 17,565 to 81,666, and the position decreased by 2,386 to 178,682. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 1,000 to 19,905, and the position decreased by 1,214 to 281,000. The inventory of Shanghai Copper increased by 1,578 to 23,307, and the inventory of LME Copper increased by 625 to 108,725. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Copper was 37.69% with a decline of 0.19% [1] - **Spot Data**: The LME copper premium/discount was - 21.57, a change of - 20.62 from the previous day. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 25, a change of - 40 from the previous day. The near - month contract to the consecutive - first contract spread was 140, a change of - 110 from the previous day [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: Trump issued trade letters this week, imposing a new round of tariffs on many countries, with the scope of the 50% copper tariff possibly expanding to semi - finished products, which may impact the construction of the US power grid and data centers [1] - **Micro**: The Indonesian Interior Minister asked to relax the copper concentrate export ban on Amman Mineral International. The new LME warehouse in Hong Kong attracted 100 tons of copper stored in "non - warrant" form before its official opening in mid - July. Ivanhoe's Kamoa - Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo had a 11% year - on - year increase in copper production in the second quarter, reaching 112,009 tons. Copper traders are shipping copper to Hawaii for tariff - related trade. First Quantum Minerals' investment in Prospect Resources is key to extending the life of the Sentinel mine in Zambia [1][3] 3. Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, with the value range being an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the copper industry Core Insights - The announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by President Trump has led to a significant spike in copper prices, with COMEX copper reaching a historical high of $5.8955 per pound, marking a 17% increase, the largest single-day rise since 1968 [2] - The tariff is expected to have profound implications for both the U.S. and global copper markets, affecting supply chains and pricing dynamics [1][2] - The demand for copper is primarily driven by the power industry, with significant contributions from the electric vehicle sector, construction, home appliances, and electronics [5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Impact of Tariff on Copper Prices - The 50% tariff on copper imports is set to take effect on August 1, 2025, causing immediate volatility in the global copper market [2] - The COMEX copper price surged to $5.6855 per pound on the announcement date, reflecting a dramatic market reaction [2] Section 2: China's Copper Industry Fundamentals and Tariff Impact - China's copper consumption ranks third among metals, with a strong demand from the power sector and growing needs from the electric vehicle industry [5] - By the end of 2024, China's power generation capacity is projected to reach 3.348 billion kilowatts, a 14.6% increase year-on-year, with solar and wind power capacities growing significantly [6] - China's refined copper production is expected to reach 13.644 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [7] Section 3: Reasons for Imposing Copper Tariff - The tariff is aimed at enhancing national security and supply chain resilience, ensuring a stable supply of critical resources [8] - The U.S. aims to boost domestic copper production by making imported copper more expensive, thereby supporting local producers [9] Section 4: Effects of Tariff Implementation - The tariff is likely to exacerbate price volatility in the copper market, with potential increases in global copper prices due to U.S. market dynamics [10] - U.S. manufacturers may face squeezed profit margins due to higher copper costs, impacting their competitiveness [10] - The tariff will lead to a restructuring of global copper supply chains, as major suppliers like Chile, Canada, and Mexico will seek new markets for their exports [11]

Group 1 - The U.S. is threatening to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports, raising concerns in the automotive industry about increased costs and the potential for these costs to be passed on to consumers [1][3] - Automotive manufacturers are currently relying on inventory to avoid price increases, but the additional costs from tariffs and rising domestic prices are intensifying financial pressures on manufacturers and suppliers [3][4] - The cost of steel, aluminum, and copper accounts for approximately 5% of U.S. automotive production costs, which could rise to 9% with the new tariffs [4] Group 2 - If the 50% tariff takes effect, the price of copper in the U.S. could reach $15,000 per ton, compared to $10,000 in other regions, significantly impacting the automotive industry [4] - The average tariff cost for domestically produced vehicles in the U.S. could be at least $1,700, while imported vehicles from Canada and Mexico could incur tariffs of $3,500, and other regions could face up to $5,700 [4] - The U.S. heavily relies on imported copper, aluminum, and steel, with nearly half of its copper consumption being imported, and domestic production is insufficient for self-sufficiency [4] Group 3 - Some industry experts are skeptical about the actual implementation of the copper tariffs, citing past instances where similar threats were postponed or retracted [5] - The potential for higher inflation due to tariffs may conflict with political realities surrounding the upcoming midterm elections in November 2026, suggesting that the copper tariffs may be short-lived [5]

白宫经济顾问哈塞特表示，美国对铜关税的50%旨在促进美国本土产量。 ...

Group 1 - The implementation of new tariffs on copper imports in the U.S. could potentially increase Freeport-McMoRan's annual profits by $1.6 billion, benefiting from its position as the largest copper producer in the U.S. and having more expansion options than competitors [1] - Freeport-McMoRan accounts for 60% of U.S. copper production and has been developing U.S. mining projects with decades of growth potential without needing to reapply for permits [1][2] - The U.S. currently relies on imports for about half of its copper demand, primarily from Chile, Canada, and Peru [1] Group 2 - Freeport-McMoRan estimated in April that if the copper tariffs are enacted, it could see at least $800 million in profit growth due to price increases, with the current premium over the London Metal Exchange copper price having doubled [2] - The average time to build a mine in the U.S. is nearly 29 years, making it difficult to achieve self-sufficiency in copper production within a decade [3] - The U.S. has only three copper smelters for processing metal into wire and pipe, with one being inactive since 2019, down from seven in 1995 [3] Group 3 - Freeport plans to extract copper from previously deemed waste rock at its U.S. mines, potentially increasing its annual copper output by 800 million pounds by 2027 [4] - Freeport's mines in Arizona, such as Bagdad and Los Angeles, still have room for growth, and the company may expand its U.S. smelting operations [5] - Other smaller copper producers in the U.S. include KGHM, Lundin, and Grupo Mexico [6]

Group 1 - The potential imposition of a 50% tariff on refined copper by the Trump administration could significantly increase costs for U.S. copper buyers, impacting the manufacturing sector that relies heavily on imported copper [1][2] - Chile accounts for approximately 70% of U.S. copper imports, and the Chilean government is actively seeking exemptions from the proposed tariffs, emphasizing the importance of Chilean copper production to U.S. manufacturing [1][2] - Analysts suggest that while the tariffs may increase domestic smelting and boost mining profits, they are unlikely to lead to substantial mining investments in the U.S. due to the long lead time required for new mining projects [1][2] Group 2 - The Canadian government has condemned the proposed tariffs, labeling them as "illegal" and a direct attack on Canadian workers, as Canada is the second-largest supplier of copper to the U.S. [2] - The copper market is expected to remain volatile, with U.S. consumers likely to draw on existing inventories in response to the tariffs, which could affect demand for copper over the next nine months [2] - The U.S. produced 850,000 tons of refined copper from ore last year, with an additional 810,000 tons relying on imports, highlighting the country's significant dependence on foreign copper sources [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The recent rebound of the US dollar index suppresses the upward space of copper prices. If the 50% tariff on copper starts on August 1st, the subsequent arbitrage channel will close, export demand will sharply decrease, and inventory will start to accumulate, with the market trend being bearish. Currently, the market is mainly volatile as there are many uncertainties regarding the copper tariff [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The copper market opened high and weakened during the day. The issue of the Fed's interest - rate cut remains uncertain, and the proposed tariff on copper may extend the Fed's wait - and - see period. As of July 4, 2025, the spot smelting fee is - 43.31 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee is - 4.31 cents per pound. The expected supply shortage may improve. As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1363500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 80800 tons (+6.30%). July is expected to be a seasonal consumption off - season [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high and weakened during the day, closing at 78700. The long positions of the top 20 were 118651 lots, an increase of 2530 lots; the short positions were 115777 lots, a decrease of 3320 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 40 yuan per ton, and in South China was - 30 yuan per ton. On July 10, 2025, the LME official price was 9742 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 10 dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side - As of July 4, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 43.31 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.31 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 23300 tons, a decrease of 9478 tons from the previous period. As of July 10, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 67100 tons, an increase of 2000 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 108700 tons, a slight increase of 625 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 231100 short tons, an increase of 7736 short tons from the previous period [9].

Core Viewpoint - The proposed 50% tariff on copper imports by President Trump will not only include refined copper but also cover semi-finished products, significantly amplifying the market impact of the tariff [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The tariff will apply to semi-finished copper products such as copper wire, copper plates, and copper tubes, which are essential for sectors like power grids, military, and data centers [1][2]. - The implementation of the tariff is set to begin on August 1, 2025, although the final details of the tariff measures are still subject to change [1]. Group 2: Market Impact - Analysts from Huatai Securities predict that the copper price may experience a correction after the tariff is implemented, especially given the traditional off-peak season in July and August, but they view this correction as a potential buying opportunity [1]. - The inclusion of semi-finished products in the tariff could disrupt processors who rely on imported raw materials, leading to increased costs across various sectors, including consumer electronics, automotive, construction, and military [2]. Group 3: Supply Chain Concerns - The U.S. domestic copper production is insufficient to meet demand, necessitating significant imports of semi-finished copper products. Last year, the U.S. imported approximately 800,000 tons of copper and copper alloy semi-finished products [2]. - Any disruption in foreign copper and semi-finished product supply could pose significant challenges for the U.S. power supply [2]. Group 4: Price Predictions - Morgan Stanley suggests that the tariff may positively impact COMEX copper prices due to the nature of the tariff being applied to imports, which will increase costs reflected in domestic prices [3]. - However, the short-term impact on prices may be mitigated by existing inventory levels, which can be consumed before the full effect of the tariff is felt [3]. - HSBC anticipates that a "buying spree" may temporarily elevate copper prices in Shanghai and London, but once the tariff policy is clarified, excess copper may return to the global market, exerting downward pressure on prices [4].