Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are pressured by crude oil trends and may test the support at 4,500 ringgit. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures are in a downward adjustment, seeking support at 9,500 yuan, with a chance of a weak rebound but continued downward pressure [1]. - CBOT soybean oil may rise if the US biodiesel policy is favorable. In China, if the zero - tolerance policy for Brazilian soybeans is relaxed, soybean supply will increase, dragging down the spot basis [1]. - Rapeseed oil prices are affected by geopolitical events. The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy and the development of the Middle East conflict. Spot prices fluctuate with the market, and the basis fluctuates within 20 yuan/ton [1]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are affected by a stronger US dollar and inflation concerns. US cotton production is expected to be around 3.05 million tons. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation between 65 - 70 cents/pound. In China, the cotton price may also oscillate widely due to the balance of long - and short - term factors [2]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures reach a five - month high, supported by energy prices. Brazilian sugar production may be affected by the preference for ethanol production. Indian sugar production is approaching the end of the season. Short - term raw sugar is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. In China, sugar imports in January - February exceed expectations. The spot market has weak sales but stable prices, and the futures market is strong but limited by weak production and sales in February and increased industrial inventory [4]. Red Dates - Affected by macro funds and the good quality of new dates, the futures market rebounds slightly from the low - valuation range, but the upside is limited by weak market conditions. In the off - season, the consumption end is weak, inventory reduction is slow, and the number of futures warehouse receipts registered is decreasing year - on - year. It is recommended to short on rebounds [6]. Apples - The apple spot market shows a more obvious structural differentiation. Good - quality apples have a better trading atmosphere, while ordinary apples in Shandong have inventory pressure. The national apple cold - storage inventory is at a historical low, which supports the futures price. There is a short - term risk of price correction, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of ordinary apples and weather changes [11]. Corn and Corn Starch - The supply and demand of corn in the Northeast and North China are relatively balanced, and prices are stable. The demand from deep - processing enterprises exists, but feed enterprises' demand for high - priced corn is average, and wheat substitution is increasing. Policy wheat auctions may squeeze corn demand. Corn prices are under pressure but limited by low social inventory, and the operation range is 2,350 - 2,420 yuan/ton [14]. Meal - The US soybean futures are oscillating around 1,160 cents, with mixed long - and short factors. The domestic soybean meal market has fully priced in concerns about shutdowns and supply continuity. The concern about delayed arrivals of Brazilian soybeans is easing, and the spot market is weak. Short - term inventory is expected to be tight, and soybean meal is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, waiting for the planting intention report at the end of March [16]. Pigs - The futures and spot prices of pigs continue to decline, and market sentiment is pessimistic. The large number of pig sales, high slaughter weight, and weak price difference between fat and lean pigs are not conducive to secondary fattening. In the off - season, downstream procurement recovers slowly, and the increase in slaughter volume has limited impact. The market focuses on secondary fattening and frozen product storage. The price may stop falling after breaking 10,000 yuan/ton, and the spot price is expected to continue to bottom out [18]. Eggs - On the supply side, the price of culled chickens is high and shows a downward trend, and farmers' willingness to cull chickens has increased. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly but is still at a relatively low level. The overall supply is relatively loose, and the inventory pressure is not large this week. On the demand side, the demand is slightly boosted by the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, but the supply is sufficient, and the price increase is limited. The terminal demand is weak, and the egg price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: The 05 - 09 spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased, with decreases of 16.22%, 59.26%, and 9.24% respectively. The spot and futures prices of various oils also changed to different degrees [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The palm oil warehouse receipts decreased by 100% to 0 [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 remained unchanged, while the price of cotton 2609 increased by 0.23%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 33.33%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 1.07%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.24%, while the valid forecast increased by 22.06% [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price and CC Index of 3128B increased, while the FC Index:M: 1% decreased. The spreads between 3128B and futures contracts and between CC Index:3128B and FC Index:M: 1% all increased [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The weekly inventory decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory increased by 14.5%, the import volume decreased by 19.0%, the bonded area inventory increased by 9.8%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 1.2%, the grey fabric inventory days increased by 0.3%, the spinning enterprise's processing profit decreased by 4.8%, the retail sales of clothing and textiles increased by 7.7%, the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and textiles decreased by 82.9%, and the export volume of textile yarns and clothing decreased [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 decreased by 0.44% and 0.40% respectively, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.90%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 3.77%, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the valid forecast increased from 0 to 520 [4]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in Nanning and Kunming decreased, and the basis increased. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) increased, and the spreads between imported sugar and Nanning prices also increased [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative sugar production and sales nationwide and in Guangxi decreased, the sugar sales rate decreased, the industrial inventory increased, and the sugar import volume increased significantly [4]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: The prices of red date 2605, 2607, and 2609 all increased, and the 5 - 7 and 5 - 9 spreads also increased. The open interest increased by 0.41%, the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the valid forecast increased by 45.98%, and the sum of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts increased by 1.87% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade red dates remained unchanged, and the basis decreased [6]. Apples - **Futures Market**: The price of apple 2605 decreased by 0.71%, the price of apple 2610 decreased by 0.09%, the basis decreased by 6.35%, the 5 - 10 spread decreased by 4.25%, the open interest decreased by 10.12%, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 6.26% [8]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at some fruit wholesale markets increased [8]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2605 decreased by 1.33%, the Jinzhou Port FAS price increased by 0.21%, the basis increased by 370.00%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 61.54%, the Shekou Port market price remained unchanged, the north - south trade profit increased by 35.71%, the Brazilian CIF duty - paid price decreased by 0.76%, the import profit increased by 14.08%, the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 19.09%, the open interest decreased by 1.61%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [14]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2605 decreased by 1.18%, the average price of corn starch decreased by 0.13%, the basis increased by 16.48%, the Weifang spot price decreased by 0.33%, the Changchun spot price remained unchanged, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 150.00%, the 05 spread between starch and corn decreased by 0.26%, the Shandong starch profit remained unchanged, the open interest decreased by 2.06%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [14]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.90%, the futures price of M2605 decreased by 0.73%, the basis decreased by 2.49%, the spot basis quote remained unchanged, the Brazilian May shipment basis import crushing profit decreased by 5.6%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 3.6% [16]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.12%, the futures price of RM2605 decreased by 0.99%, the basis decreased by 2.43%, the Canadian July shipment basis import crushing profit increased by 400.00%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained at 0 [16]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract decreased by 0.83%, the basis increased by 9.76%, the spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract 2 remained unchanged, the basis remained unchanged, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.50% [16]. - **Spreads**: The 05 - 09 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, the ratio of soybean to rapeseed meal in the spot market increased by 0.68%, the ratio of oil to meal in the main contract decreased by 0.14%, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spreads in the spot market and 2605 contract remained basically unchanged [16]. Pigs - **Futures Market**: The main contract basis increased by 36.36%, the price of pig 2605 increased by 0.65%, the price of pig 2603 decreased by 3.23%, the 3 - 5 spread decreased by 53.68%, the main contract open interest increased by 2.41%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.81% [18]. - **Spot Market**: The prices in various regions decreased to different degrees, and the slaughter rate decreased by 0.47%, the white - strip price, piglet price, and sow price remained unchanged, the slaughter weight increased by 0.05%, the self - breeding profit decreased by 5.13%, the purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 19.72%, and the number of fertile sows decreased by 0.73% [18]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The prices of egg 04 and 05 contracts decreased by 0.66% and 1.22% respectively, the basis increased by 27.56%, and the 4 - 5 spread increased by 18.35% [20]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price remained unchanged, the egg - chick price increased by 2.86%, the culled - chicken price increased by 1.25%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 1.24%, and the breeding profit increased by 9.98% [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic inventory de - stocking trend remains unchanged. Short - term consumption resilience limits the depth of zinc price correction, and there is a possibility of re - inflation in the long - term under the interest rate cut cycle [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$21.57 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,130 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of 110 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,020 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 15 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,030 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On December 18, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,000 yuan/ton, closed at 23,030 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 92,275 lots, and the open interest was 52,902 lots. The highest price was 23,105 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,965 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of December 18, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 122,200 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 99,400 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Downstream rigid - demand procurement continues to repair the spot premium. Domestic consumption shows resilience, and social inventory is declining. Overseas inventory has increased sharply, and the premium has turned into a discount. The export window for Chinese zinc ingots has closed, but the concentrated delivery is not expected to last, and the absolute inventory level is still low. The TC of zinc mines continues to decline. High - altitude areas in China have started to reduce production, resulting in a decrease in domestic ore supply. However, smelters' procurement demand and enthusiasm remain high, and the TC of zinc mines is expected to decline slightly. The comprehensive smelting losses of smelters have expanded, and the supply in December may still be lower than expected, with a significant decrease in supply pressure compared to the previous period [5] Strategy - **Single - side**: Cautiously bullish - **Arbitrage**: Inter - period positive spread arbitrage [6]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The market for lithium carbonate is currently in a state of destocking, and prices continue to rise. However, there are still differences in the market. Whether the price can remain stable above 100,000 yuan/ton remains to be seen. Supply - side incremental expectations and the slowdown of destocking may suppress price increases. Short - term, it is advisable to wait and see [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis - On December 15, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 98,080 yuan/ton and closed at 101,060 yuan/ton, with a 1.40% change in the closing price compared to the previous settlement price. The trading volume was 699,601 lots, and the open interest was 662,185 lots (634,283 lots the previous day). The current basis is - 3,190 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 15,260 lots, a change of 210 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, battery - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 93,500 - 96,800 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 92,000 - 93,300 yuan/ton, both with a change of 650 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,220 US dollars/ton, a change of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. News about Bolivia's new president's plan to terminate some lithium - mining contracts with China has strengthened the expectation of tight lithium carbonate supply [1] Group 4: Inventory Situation - The current spot inventory is 111,469 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,133 tons. Among them, smelter inventory is 19,161 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1,606 tons), downstream inventory is 42,738 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 957 tons), and other inventory is 49,570 tons (a month - on - month increase of 430 tons). December is expected to maintain a destocking pattern, but the speed has slowed down [2] Group 5: Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly wait and see in the short term; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for pure benzene is neutral to bearish [4] - The investment rating for styrene is also neutral to bearish [6] 2. Core Views Pure Benzene - Supply: This week, the operating rate of pure benzene increased slightly, with supply rising and significant domestic supply pressure. There are few planned maintenance activities, and future supply is expected to remain at a high level. Ship reports indicate a large number of arrivals in the first 10 days of November, and the overall import volume in November is expected to be high [4] - Demand: The main downstream product, styrene, has low profit margins, leading to many planned future maintenance activities. The overall operating rate of downstream industries has declined again, and demand is expected to remain low in the short term [4] - Inventory: With a large number of incoming ships, port inventory is expected to accumulate in November [4] - Valuation: The BZN spread is low, indicating that the valuation of pure benzene is low [4] - Outlook: There is a mismatch between supply and demand for pure benzene, but the improving gasoline blending demand in Europe and the United States may provide some support. Future demand for pure benzene is expected to be weak, and combined with high supply, the fundamentals are expected to remain weak in the short term. OPEC+ has announced a suspension of production increases in the first quarter of next year, and a potential inflection point may occur in the first quarter of next year [4] Styrene - Supply: Due to a large number of maintenance activities, both the operating rate and production of styrene have declined, and the overall future supply is expected to be low [6] - Demand: The overall downstream demand has decreased, and the overall operating rate has declined. There are new PS installations in operation, and new ABS installations may come online in mid - November. The finished product inventory pressure in downstream industries remains, and demand is expected to recover slowly [6] - Inventory: With many styrene maintenance activities, overall inventory is expected to decrease in November [6] - Valuation: The BZ - SM spread is low, indicating that the valuation of styrene is low [6] - Outlook: Styrene supply has tightened significantly, and inventory may decrease in November. Considering the overseas gasoline blending support for pure benzene, styrene is expected to trade sideways in the short term. Some far - month spreads have reached a risk - free level, which is worth attention [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Supply - The operating rate of pure benzene has been at a high level, and the supply is abundant. There were new maintenance activities at Zhongyuan Ethylene last week. Looking at the annual data, the supply situation is relatively stable, with the total supply in 2025 ranging from 252.88 to 280.26 million tons in different months [4][14][50] - Many enterprises have ongoing or planned maintenance, such as Changyi Petrochemical, Jincheng Petrochemical, etc., with some having undetermined restart times [15] Demand - The overall operating rate of downstream industries is expected to decline, and the profit margins remain low. The main downstream products, including styrene, caprolactam, adipic acid, etc., have shown varying degrees of demand weakness [4][16][27] Inventory - Last week, the inventory at East China ports was 11.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4 million tons. From the monthly data, the inventory is expected to accumulate from November to December, with the port inventory change showing an upward trend in some months [43][50] Valuation - The BZN spread is low, indicating a low valuation of pure benzene [43] External Market Support - The US - Asia arbitrage window has been closed, but the overseas gasoline blending demand may provide some support. In different regions, the demand for pure benzene varies: in North America, chemical demand is weak but gasoline blending demand is good; in Western Europe, demand is weak; in Asia, supply is sufficient, and the consumption of three S products is weak [44][49] Styrene Supply - The supply of styrene in November is expected to decline due to a large number of maintenance activities. There were no new maintenance installations last week, and supply in November and December is expected to be low [54][58] - Many enterprises have carried out or planned maintenance, such as Zhenhai Liande Phase II, Satellite Petrochemical, etc. [56] Demand - The overall downstream demand has decreased, but the profit margins of downstream industries are relatively good. The consumption of downstream products such as ABS, EbS, etc., shows different trends in different months [6][72][93] Inventory - As of now, the inventory at East China ports has decreased to 17.48 million tons, and at South China ports to 2.1 million tons. With the reduction in overall supply, inventory is expected to continue to decline [91] Valuation - The BZ - SM spread is low, indicating a low valuation of styrene [6] External Market Support - In Western Europe, demand is weak, and in Asia, demand is also relatively weak [7]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The methanol market in China is experiencing high import levels despite a slight decrease in September, with government measures aimed at controlling production capacity to prevent oversupply risks [1][2]. Group 1: Import and Market Dynamics - In September, China's methanol import volume is estimated at 1.6384 million tons, a decrease of 121,400 tons from the previous month, representing a decline of 6.9% [1]. - The early morning trading in Jiangsu Taicang showed spot prices for methanol ranging from 2,245 to 2,255 RMB/ton, with basis negotiations around -100 to -105 RMB/ton [1]. Group 2: Government Regulations - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with six other departments, issued a notice on the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)", emphasizing strict control over new refining capacity and careful determination of new ethylene and paraxylene production scales to mitigate the risk of oversupply in the coal-to-methanol sector [1]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Forecasts - Ningzheng Futures reports that domestic methanol production remains high, with downstream demand recovering, but overall market sentiment is weak, leading to a forecast of short-term price fluctuations with support around 2,350 RMB/ton [2]. - Hualian Futures indicates that while production rates and import volumes remain high, traditional demand is under pressure, and port inventories are at elevated levels, suggesting continued downward pressure on methanol prices [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper prices rose first and then fell. The main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.42%, closing at 79,910 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and global instability persists. Domestically, the consumption season is approaching, but downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is mediocre, mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory was 148,875 tons, with a slight decrease last week, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week [3]. - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply in 2025 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.42%, closing at 79,910 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariff issues affected copper prices, and global instability persists. Domestically, the consumption season is approaching, but downstream consumption willingness is average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is mediocre, mainly driven by rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 148,875 tons, with a slight decrease last week, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 PMI - No specific content about PMI is provided in the report. 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [10][13]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [14][18]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 Processing Fees - Processing fees are at a low level [21]. 3.3.2 CFTC Positions - There is an outflow of non - commercial net long positions in CFTC [23]. 3.3.3 Futures - Spot Price Spread - No specific content about the futures - spot price spread is provided in the report. 3.3.4 Import Profits - No specific content about import profits is provided in the report. 3.3.5 Warehouse Receipts - No specific content about warehouse receipts is provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories present a mixed picture, with an increase on July 14 but a decrease in the SHFE inventory compared to last week, remaining neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is trending downwards, suggesting a bearish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players is long and increasing, indicating a bullish sign [2]. - Expectations include a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, geopolitical disturbances, a proposed 50% US copper tariff, and increased market volatility [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of copper's various factors is a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish signals, with complex market expectations influenced by policy, inventory, and geopolitical factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves the co - existence of domestic policy easing and an escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [3]. Spot - Information on spot prices, including the location, mid - price, and price changes, as well as inventory types, totals, and changes, is presented but not fully detailed in the given text [6]. 期现价差 - Not detailed in the provided content Exchange Inventory - Copper inventory on July 14 increased by 900 tons to 109,625 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week [2]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - Not detailed in the provided content Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows detailed data from 2018 - 2024 [20][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In June 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 32.778%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure, and this may continue next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.7595%, a month - on - month increase of 0.70 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.40 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 39%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00 percentage points [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 441.76 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,035.1614 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 29.22%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support prices in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The refinery's recent production increase has raised supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventories are continuously decreasing. Crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3,528 - 3,596 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: Refineries have increased production, raising supply pressure [8]. - Demand: Overall demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost: Strengthening crude oil supports prices in the short term [9]. - Expectation: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short term, with asphalt 2509 in the 3,528 - 3,596 range [10]. - Factors: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand due to strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. - Logic: High supply pressure and weak demand recovery [15] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Various contract data for asphalt are presented, including price changes, inventory changes, and开工率 changes. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 0.15%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.52% [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - Charts show the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China over the years [20] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Mainly presents the spread trends of different contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, and their ratio trends, as well as the cracking spread trends of crude oil [25][27][30] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The chart shows the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt over the years [37] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: Includes asphalt profit and the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt [40][43] - **Supply - side Analysis**: Covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, maintenance loss volume estimation [46][48][51] - **Inventory Analysis**: Involves exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio [66][70][73] - **Import and Export Analysis**: Presents the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt [76][79][80] - **Demand - side Analysis**: Includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream mechanical demand, asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [82][85][88] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [107][108]