Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories present a mixed picture, with an increase on July 14 but a decrease in the SHFE inventory compared to last week, remaining neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is trending downwards, suggesting a bearish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players is long and increasing, indicating a bullish sign [2]. - Expectations include a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, geopolitical disturbances, a proposed 50% US copper tariff, and increased market volatility [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of copper's various factors is a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish signals, with complex market expectations influenced by policy, inventory, and geopolitical factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves the co - existence of domestic policy easing and an escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [3]. Spot - Information on spot prices, including the location, mid - price, and price changes, as well as inventory types, totals, and changes, is presented but not fully detailed in the given text [6]. 期现价差 - Not detailed in the provided content Exchange Inventory - Copper inventory on July 14 increased by 900 tons to 109,625 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week [2]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - Not detailed in the provided content Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows detailed data from 2018 - 2024 [20][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In June 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 32.778%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure, and this may continue next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.7595%, a month - on - month increase of 0.70 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.40 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 39%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.00 percentage points [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 441.76 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,035.1614 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 29.22%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support prices in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The refinery's recent production increase has raised supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventories are continuously decreasing. Crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3,528 - 3,596 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: Refineries have increased production, raising supply pressure [8]. - Demand: Overall demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost: Strengthening crude oil supports prices in the short term [9]. - Expectation: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short term, with asphalt 2509 in the 3,528 - 3,596 range [10]. - Factors: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand due to strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. - Logic: High supply pressure and weak demand recovery [15] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Various contract data for asphalt are presented, including price changes, inventory changes, and开工率 changes. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 0.15%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.52% [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - Charts show the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China over the years [20] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Mainly presents the spread trends of different contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, and their ratio trends, as well as the cracking spread trends of crude oil [25][27][30] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The chart shows the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt over the years [37] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: Includes asphalt profit and the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt [40][43] - **Supply - side Analysis**: Covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, maintenance loss volume estimation [46][48][51] - **Inventory Analysis**: Involves exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio [66][70][73] - **Import and Export Analysis**: Presents the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trend of South Korean asphalt [76][79][80] - **Demand - side Analysis**: Includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream mechanical demand, asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [82][85][88] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [107][108]