短期情绪主导 行情反复加剧 正信期货鸡蛋周报 2025-6-23 正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 观点小结 | 鸡蛋 | 短期观点 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 本周样本养殖企业淘鸡价格小幅上升， 淘鸡日龄持续下降，大小码价差小幅下降，鸡苗价格持 | | | | 续下降。 | | | | 目前供需边际有所改善，但淘鸡相对蛋价处于历史同期高位，7月20日入伏之前产蛋率也不会快 | | | | 速下滑，节前备货就算提前启动，或是供给后置，或是透支需求，所以现货季节性反弹还为时尚 | 中性 | | | 早。 | | | | 但对于鸡蛋期货而言，其持仓呈现分散化与投机属性并存的特点，导致期货经常出现抢跑行情， | | | | 尤其是近期地缘风险导致原油大涨，带动商品整体多头氛围。 | | | 需求 | 本周主销区销量小幅下降，主产区发货量小幅上升，流通库存和生产环节库存小幅下降。 | 偏空 | | | 目前正处超长梅雨季，实际消费或将受到抑制。 | | | 利润 | 养殖利润小幅上升，明显低于综合成本，处于近4年同期最低水平。 近期蛋价的反弹是成本上移、电商促销以及季节性看涨 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-18 出栏略有减少，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13815元/吨，较前交易日变动+35.00元/吨，幅度+0.25%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格14.28元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差 LH09+465，较前交易日变动-35；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 14.63元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.05元/公斤，现货基差LH09+815，较前交易日变动+15；四川 地区外三元生猪价格13.98元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09+165，较前交易日变动-35。 据农业农村部监测，6月17日"农产品批发价格200指数"为112.83，与昨天持平，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指数为112.86， 与昨天持平。截至今日14:00时，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.23元/公斤，比昨天下降0.7%；牛肉63.54 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.1%；羊肉59.46元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；鸡蛋7.25元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；白条鸡16.89 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.8%。 市场分析 综 ...

行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 6 月 13 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 上周现货价格继续弱稳的状态，端午后其实走货情况相对前期有一定好转， 但一方面小码蛋上量仍然较多，另一方面梅雨季即将来临，各方拿货仍显谨慎， 从现货市场来看，未来一段时间预期仍是弱稳。根据 2025 年气象预测和传统历法 推算，今年预 ...

Report Overview - Industry: Eggs [1] - Date: June 10, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The spot price of eggs is expected to remain weak in the short - to - medium term. Futures should be treated bearishly or sell out - of - the - money call options. Monitor the situation of culled hens. If the spot price stabilizes in mid - to - late June, short positions should exit; if the spot price continues to decline during the rainy season in June, short positions can be held cautiously [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: For egg contracts 2507, 2508, and 2509, prices decreased, with declines of 1.18%, 1.35%, and 1.08% respectively. The trading volume of 2507 was 139,636, 2508 was 129,143, and 2509 was 58,582. The change in open interest of 2507 was - 5,506, 2508 was 7,737, and 2509 was 6,453 [7]. - **Spot Price**: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.77 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day; in the main selling areas, it was 2.99 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Given the expected long and rainy plum - rain season, futures are bearish in the short - to - medium term. Watch the culling of hens. If the spot price stabilizes in mid - to - late June, short positions should exit; if it continues to fall during the plum - rain season, short positions can be held [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens**: As of the end of May, the monthly存栏量 was about 1.334 billion, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 7.2% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In April, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 46.99 million, an increase from March and the same period in 2024 [9]. - **Culled Hens**: The culling volume increased in May, with an average culling age of 521 days as of May 29, 11 days earlier than the previous week and 15 days earlier than the previous month [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents data on the monthly存栏量 of laying hens, egg - farming profits, the average price in the main producing areas, the seasonal trend of the 06 contract, the basis of the 06 contract, and the 08 - 09 spread [10][16][20]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 9 日 鸡蛋：产业仍存抵抗情绪 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2507 | 2,859 | -0.63 | 69,678 | | 7,559 | | | 鸡蛋2509 | 3,709 | -0.32 | 6,762 | | 3,437 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋7-8价差 | | -694 | | -693 | | | | 鸡蛋7-9价差 | | -850 | | -837 | | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 2.80 | | 2.90 | | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.58 | | 2.58 | | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 2.80 | | 2.90 | | | | 湖北现货 ...

25年3-4月补栏量依旧较高，对应25年7-8月新开产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前期利润积累，抗风险能力 增强，产能出清或需要时间，整体高补苗量下，远期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。 6月5日全国鸡蛋生产环节平均库存0.94天，较前一天增0.02天；流通环节库存1.03天，较前一天持平。 消息面回顾： 周四，主产区鸡蛋均价为2.84元/斤，较前日持平，主销区鸡蛋均价为3.06元/斤，较前日持平。鸡蛋单 斤成本约3.5元，同比下降3.85%，窄幅震荡。 截至2025年6月6日当周，鸡蛋期货主力合约收于2859元/500千克，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周减持 5300手。 本周（6月3日-6月6日）市场上看，鸡蛋期货周内开盘报2930元/500千克，最高触及2933元/500千克，最 低下探至2856元/500千克，周度涨跌幅达-2.46%。 机构观点汇总： 方正中期期货：基本面上，当前整体消费即将进入淡季，鸡蛋将会再次进入年度供强需弱，蛋价迎来季 节性次低点。2025年上半年蛋鸡产业周期可能继续下行，蛋价中期跌破养殖成本的概率仍然较高。操作 上，农产品整体氛围出现反复，拖累蛋价重心下移，鸡蛋期价绝对价格偏低，0 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.06」 鸡蛋市场周报 现货持续低位运行 期价维持偏弱震荡 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议：短期观望为主。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 Ø 鸡蛋： Ø 行情回顾：本周鸡蛋低位偏弱震荡，09合约收盘价为3709元/500千克，较前一周-48元/500千克。 Ø 行情展望：随着节后鸡蛋步入季节性需求淡季，且目前蛋鸡存栏量处于高位，前期补栏的蛋鸡新 开产压力较大，鸡蛋供应比较充足。同时，受湿热天气影响，鸡蛋存储成本增加，下游经销商采 购谨慎，蛋价或持续处于同期偏低水平。不过，供应宽松的预期在盘面已有体现，期价估值总体 不高，如果后期现货价格持续偏低，或将迫使老鸡淘汰积极性提升和降低补栏积极性，对远期价 格有所利好，关注现货价格对蛋鸡存栏的影响。盘面来看，现货价格持续处于低位，拖累期价总 体偏弱，不过，跌势有所放缓。 「 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term strategy is to wait and see [7] - This week, the egg price fluctuated at a low level. The closing price of the 09 contract was 3,757 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 5 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The firm corn spot price supports the egg cost, and there is restocking demand at low prices. The pre - Dragon Boat Festival stocking also provides some support. However, the current egg - laying hen inventory is high, the pressure of newly - opened production of previously replenished hens is large, and the egg supply is sufficient. Affected by hot and humid weather, the egg storage cost increases, and downstream dealers are cautious in purchasing. If the spot price remains low, it may increase the enthusiasm for culling old hens and reduce the enthusiasm for replenishment, which is beneficial to the long - term price. The low spot price drags down the futures price [8] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy: Short - term wait - and - see [7] - Egg market: This week, the 09 contract of eggs fluctuated at a low level. The corn price supports the cost, and there is restocking demand and pre - festival stocking support. But the hen inventory is high, the supply is sufficient, the storage cost is high, and the downstream is cautious. Low spot prices may affect the hen inventory, and the low spot price drags down the futures price [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and position: The 09 contract of egg futures fluctuated at a low level, with a position of 100,108 lots, an increase of 12,014 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 3,548, a slight decrease in net short position [14] - Futures warehouse receipts: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 0 [18] - Spot price and basis: The egg spot price was 2,916 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 32 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 07 contract futures price and the spot average price was - 22 yuan per ton [24] - Futures monthly spread: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was 222 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a medium level in the same period [28] - Related product prices: As of May 29, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.69 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of monitored vegetables was 4.3 yuan per kilogram [34] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side: As of March 31, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was 112.35, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51%. The national new chick index was 138.68, a month - on - month increase of 20.46% [39] - Hen culling: As of March 31, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was 96.76, a month - on - month decrease of 18.30%. The national culling age was 510 days [45] - Feed raw materials: As of May 29, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,379.8 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2,920 yuan per ton [49] - Feed price and profit: As of May 23, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.27 yuan per hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.78 yuan per kilogram [56] - Egg - laying hen chicks and culled hens: As of May 23, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was 4.15 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was 10.24 yuan per kilogram [60] - Egg exports: In April 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,792.51 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.12% and a month - on - month decrease of 110.81 tons [65] 3.4 Representative Company - Xiaoming Co., Ltd.: Only the PE change chart is provided, no specific data [67]

Group 1: Report Summary and Strategy Suggestion - Strategy suggestion: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [7] - Market review: This week, the egg price fluctuated slightly downward. The closing price of the 09 contract was 3762 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 26 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [8] - Market outlook: The firm spot price of corn supports the egg cost. The egg price is at a low level this year, and there is restocking demand at low prices. Pre - holiday stocking before the Dragon Boat Festival may provide some support. However, the current egg - laying hen inventory is high, and the pressure of newly - laid eggs from previously replenished hens is large. The supply of eggs is relatively sufficient, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change. If the spot price remains low, it may boost the enthusiasm for culling old hens and reduce the enthusiasm for replenishment, which is beneficial to the forward price. Pay attention to the impact of the spot price on the egg - laying hen inventory. The spot price has been low, dragging the futures price to oscillate weakly at a low level [8] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - The 09 contract of egg futures fluctuated slightly downward, with a position of 88094 lots, an increase of 7908 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 4069, and the net short position decreased slightly compared to last week's - 6681 [14] Futures Warehouse Receipt - As of Friday, the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs was 3 [18] Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of eggs was reported at 2948 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 283 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 07 contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 18 yuan per ton [24] Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was reported at 191 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a medium level in the same period [28] Related Commodity Spot Prices - As of May 22, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 20.67 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was reported at 4.2 yuan per kilogram [34] Group 3: Industrial Chain Supply Side: Inventory and Replenishment - As of March 31, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was reported at 112.35, a month - on - month decrease of 3.51%. The national new chick index was reported at 138.68, a month - on - month increase of 20.46% [39] Culling Index and Age - As of March 31, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was reported at 96.76, a month - on - month decrease of 18.30%. The national culling age of hens was reported at 510 days [45] Feed Raw Material Prices - As of May 22, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2374.51 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 2940 yuan per ton [49] Feed Price and Breeding Profit - As of May 16, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.16 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.8 yuan per kilogram [55] Egg Chicken and Culled Chicken Prices - As of May 16, 2025, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 4.15 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled chickens was reported at 10.44 yuan per kilogram [60] Egg Export Volume - In April 2025, the total egg export volume was 12792.51 tons, an increase of 1680.12 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 15.12%, and a month - on - month decrease of 110.81 tons compared to the previous month [65] Group 4: Representative Company Xiaoming Co., Ltd. - The report shows the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd. [67]

行业 鸡蛋 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 日期 2025 年 5 月 22 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...