今日截至14:10，科创人工智能ETF华夏(589010)下跌1.35%，盘中出现较大回调，跌幅一度超2.5%，午 盘震荡筑底后跌幅逐渐收窄。下跌或可看作对世界人工智能大会期间涨幅的消化，AI长线逻辑不改， 回调或为良好的买入布局机会。持仓股方面，芯原股份领跌4.52%，澜起科技、寒武纪、金山办公、天 准科技等跌幅超2%。 流动性方面，盘中换手超20%，成交总量达1500万，市场交投活跃。 消息方面，继6月7日首个"国医AI分身"发布后，8月1日，固生堂再发布10大"国医AI分身"，覆盖肿瘤 科、皮肤科、消化内科等8大中医核心专科领域。此次规模性拓展，是固生堂持续推进"中医+AI"战略落 地的又一次重要突破。通过构建可复制、标准化的产业体系，固生堂进一步夯实技术与模式优势，为中 医AI商业化奠定坚实基础。 中信证券表示，美国OBBBA法案有望通过固定资产、研发费用折算调整的税收优惠政策，在2025年为 北美四大CSP（亚马逊、META、谷歌、微软）释放约400亿美元增量现金流。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 考虑到头部科技企业的AI战略、云业务景气度、算力紧缺程度，税收优惠带来的现金流有望再投入至 AI基础设施 ...

Core Insights - The meeting held on July 28 emphasized the promotion of high-quality development in the information and communication industry, aiming to consolidate and enhance competitive advantages and leading positions [1] - The communication industry is currently underweight, with capital expenditure on computing power maintaining high growth, and the domestic market accelerating in line with global AI development [1][2] - By 2025, the AI computing power industry chain is expected to continue accelerating, benefiting the communication industry and related sectors [1] Group 1 - The meeting highlighted the need to promote the popularization and quality improvement of 5G and gigabit optical networks, as well as the ongoing "signal upgrade" initiative [1] - There is an increased focus on the construction and layout of computing power centers to enhance resource supply capacity and utilization efficiency [1] - Domestic AI application breakthroughs are anticipated, with significant capital expenditure growth from internet companies starting in 2024 [1] Group 2 - The communication industry is entering a period of technological iteration and policy dividends by 2025, with new productivity directions like AI and quantum communication driving growth [2] - Recovery in the inventory of cellular IoT modules is expected, alongside continued construction of communication facilities such as base stations, optical cables, and data centers [2] - Companies are advised to focus on opportunities arising from the intersection of technology commercialization, policy catalysis, and performance certainty [2]

Core Viewpoint - The communication industry is experiencing a positive turnaround in fund holdings, with a market value share of 3.90% in Q2 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.31 percentage points, returning to the top ten sectors [1][3]. Group 1: Fund Holdings and Market Position - In Q2 2025, the communication sector's fund holdings ranked fifth among 31 primary industries, with the top five being electronics, power equipment, food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, and banking, with respective shares of 17.22%, 9.80%, 9.55%, 9.04%, and 7.90% [3]. - The AI industry chain remains a focal point, with the top three companies in the communication sector by fund holding market value being NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Hudian Co., with market values of 31.207 billion yuan (up 123.28%), 28.788 billion yuan (up 124.58%), and 12.311 billion yuan (up 178.32%) respectively [3]. Group 2: Industry Outlook and Growth Potential - The communication industry maintains an "overweight" rating, driven by the ongoing high growth phase of capital expenditure in computing power, closely aligned with the global AI development trajectory [2]. - Significant capital expenditures are anticipated in the domestic AI sector, with Alibaba projecting that its investment in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years will exceed the total of the past decade, while Tencent's capital expenditure is expected to triple year-on-year to 10.7 billion USD in 2024 [2]. - The AI computing power industry chain is expected to continue accelerating in 2025, with evolving demand in inference capabilities, presenting broader growth opportunities for the communication sector [2].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting an "Overweight" rating based on expected performance exceeding the market benchmark by more than 10% over the next 6-12 months [33]. Core Insights - The North Exchange A-shares saw a trading volume of 27.45 billion yuan on July 21, 2025, an increase of 4.99 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with the North Exchange 50 Index closing at 1452.34, up 2.38% [2][9]. - The report highlights significant market drivers, including the launch of the 1.2 trillion yuan Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which is expected to stimulate related industries such as tunnel equipment and engineering consulting [4][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-scarcity and strong alpha attributes in specialized and innovative enterprises, particularly in new power equipment and smart hardware sectors [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - On July 21, 2025, the North Exchange A-shares had 268 companies, with 208 rising, 4 flat, and 56 declining. The top five gainers included Iron Tuo Machinery, Jikang Instruments, and Wuxin Tunnel Equipment, each rising by 30% [2][16]. - The North Exchange Specialized and Innovative Index closed at 2477.21, up 2.0% [2][9]. Important News - A humanoid robot project by UBTECH won a record bid of 90.51 million yuan, with plans to deliver 500 units within the year, indicating a growing market for robotics [19]. - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is set to begin construction, which may open growth opportunities in related sectors [20]. Key Company Announcements - Runpu Food announced that its major shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 1.76 million shares, representing 1.99% of the total share capital [21]. - Xuchang Intelligent won 13 projects from the State Grid, totaling 153 million yuan, enhancing its market presence [29].

Summary of TSMC Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Manufacturing Key Points Revenue Growth and Capital Expenditure - TSMC expects a revenue growth rate of approximately 25% over the next five years, driven by technological barriers [2][3] - Capital expenditure guidance for 2025 is set between $35 billion and $42 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 34% [2][3] Profit Margin Risks - The company faces risks from the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar and the migration of manufacturing to the U.S., which could lead to a decline in gross margins by about 1% annually [2][4] - Despite these risks, TSMC anticipates that its gross margin will only decline by 1% per year, which is a relatively optimistic forecast [4][5] AI and HPC Revenue Growth - TSMC is positioned as a key player in the AI computing supply chain, with AI-related revenue expected to double from 2024 to 2025 and maintain a growth rate of around 45% from 2025 to 2029 [2][6] - High-Performance Computing (HPC) accounts for 60% of TSMC's revenue, with quarterly revenues ranging from $14 billion to $15 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of nearly 80% [4][14] Product Pricing and Margins - The average selling price (ASP) of TSMC's products increased by 3% to $8,088, significantly higher than competitors like SMIC [2][8] - The gross margin for Q2 was reported at 58.6%, with only a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points due to increased capacity utilization and ASP growth [2][8] Capacity Expansion and Technology Transition - TSMC plans to expand its 5nm capacity in the second half of 2025 to meet growing customer demand, transitioning some 7nm capacity to 5nm and further to 4nm [4][10] - The company confirmed that its 5nm capacity is currently very tight, which is a core issue for expansion [7][9] Market Dynamics and Competitor Analysis - Despite ASML's weaker performance and subdued EUV equipment investments, TSMC's end-user demand remains strong, indicating potential for upward adjustments in capital expenditures [2][7] - TSMC's wafer prices are projected to increase by 19% in 2025, followed by 12% in 2026 and 7% in 2027 [11] Industry Valuation and Investment Sentiment - TSMC's valuation is aligned with its profit growth, maintaining a price-to-earnings ratio of around 25 times, with a target price-to-book ratio of approximately 7 times [13][25] - Investors are attracted to TSMC due to its expected 25% revenue growth over the next five years and high visibility within the hardware cycle [25] Currency Impact - The recent appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar by approximately 10% could impact TSMC's gross margins and stock price, necessitating close monitoring of this risk [22] Semiconductor Industry Trends - The global semiconductor industry has been experiencing growth since mid-2023, with a long-term growth rate of around 20%, although most sectors are in cyclical fluctuations [23] - The data center segment is expected to grow by 30% to 40% annually, contributing significantly to the overall industry growth [23][24] Conclusion - TSMC is well-positioned for future growth, particularly in AI and HPC sectors, despite facing some risks related to currency fluctuations and manufacturing shifts. The company's strategic focus on advanced technologies and capacity expansion is expected to drive revenue and maintain competitive advantages in the semiconductor industry.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward trend in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, particularly driven by the technology sector and communication stocks [1] - Galaxy Securities anticipates that the AI computing power industry chain will continue to recover in the second half of the year, presenting new investment opportunities [1] - Specific sub-sectors showing potential include operators, optical communication, satellite internet, and quantum technology [1] Group 2 - The dual innovation sector is expected to have high elasticity in a bull market scenario, with a price fluctuation limit of 20%, making it a leading indicator in A-share rebound trends [1] - Investors without stock accounts are advised to consider the Guotai CSI Science and Technology Innovation 100 ETF linked C (019867) and linked A (019866) [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that capital market reforms will enhance mechanisms supporting the development of technology growth enterprises, with a focus on sectors like biomedicine, artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy [1] - Reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, such as the establishment of a growth tier, the resumption of listing standards for unprofitable companies, and the introduction of a third set of standards for the Growth Enterprise Market, will significantly increase market support for technology companies, creating more investment opportunities in related fields [1] - The AI computing power industry chain is expected to recover continuously, presenting new investment opportunities, particularly in sub-sectors like operators, optical communications, satellite internet, and quantum technology [1] Group 2 - The ChiNext 50 ETF tracks the ChiNext 50 Index, which can experience daily fluctuations of up to 20%. This index, published by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, selects 50 stocks with larger market capitalization and better liquidity from the ChiNext market, aiming to reflect the performance of the most representative and influential companies in the market, especially focusing on technology innovation sectors like information technology and healthcare [1]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of "capacity reduction," which is reflected in the decline of capital expenditure, the abandonment of existing projects, and the guidance for the survival of the fittest among existing enterprises. This capacity reduction is a slow variable that will elevate the long-term profitability capability [3] - The current strong performance of the A-share market suggests a growing focus on long-term positive factors, although the current fundamental expectations and profit-making effects are not yet at bull market levels. The company's market outlook remains unchanged, predicting that 2026-27 will be the core period of the bull market, with signs of index improvement starting in Q4 2025 [3] - The article notes that the capital expenditure of internet platforms may improve, serving as a driving force for stock prices in the domestic AI computing power industry chain. In the short term, the market is highly focused on sectors such as electric equipment, steel, and building materials [3] Group 2 - Service consumption is recovering, with a notable expansion in the price decline of white liquor and pork. Year-on-year growth rates have been continuously rising since the beginning of the year [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance on July 2, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% to 3454.79 points, the ChiNext Index down 1.13% to 2123.72 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.61% to 10412.63 points [1] - A total of 1943 stocks rose while 3282 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 13769 billion yuan, a decrease of 892 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance - Marine economy stocks surged, particularly in aquaculture and deep-sea technology, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [4] - The steel sector saw a rebound in the afternoon, with stocks like Shengde Xintai and Chongqing Steel reaching their daily limit [4] - The banking sector remained active, with major banks like China Construction Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank reaching historical highs [4] - Semiconductor stocks experienced significant declines, with several companies dropping over 6% [4][5] Future Market Expectations - Zhongyuan Securities predicts a steady upward trend for the A-share market in the short term, supported by increased long-term capital inflow and stable ETF growth [6] - Yingda Securities suggests a relatively positive mid-term market outlook, with expectations of continued upward movement due to financial support policies and potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [6] - Dongguan Securities notes that the upcoming half-year report disclosures and policy expectations will enhance market drivers [6] - Overall, the market is expected to experience fluctuations, with potential opportunities in sectors like new consumption, media, and non-bank financials [7][8]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight decline with over 3200 stocks in the red, as the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.42%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.84% [1] - Overall market sentiment remains weak, with a lack of strong fundamentals and fragmented capital expectations, leading to short-term speculative behavior [1][6] Sector Performance - **Banking Sector**: Strong performance with banks like China Construction Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank reaching new highs [1] - **Marine Economy**: Stocks related to the marine economy surged, with companies like Giant Sway and ShenKong Co. hitting the daily limit [2] - **Aquaculture**: The aquaculture sector also showed strength, with stocks like China National Fisheries reaching the daily limit [1] - **Engineering Machinery**: The sector saw a rise, with Southern Road Machinery hitting the daily limit [1] - **Solar Energy**: The photovoltaic sector was active, led by glass and silicon materials, with Yamaton hitting the daily limit [1][3] - **Declining Sectors**: Multi-financial concept stocks fell sharply, with Aijian Group hitting the daily limit down, and the semiconductor industry chain also faced a pullback [1] Institutional Insights - **Shenwan Hongyuan**: Predicts that positive factors will accumulate between 2026-2027, indicating a potential bull market, but acknowledges the current market is still distant from a bull market initiation [4] - **Xinda Securities**: Anticipates possible market fluctuations in July, but believes the extent will be manageable. A shift towards optimism in earnings or policy could lead to a return to a bull market in late Q3 or Q4 [5] - **Orient Securities**: Emphasizes that the current market lacks a solid foundation for a broad rally, with short-term hotspots remaining speculative [6]