免责声明 本研究报告由国投期货有限公司撰写,研究报告中所提供的信息仅供参考。报告根据国际和行业通行的准则，以合 法渠道获得这些信息,尽可能保证可靠、准确和完整,但并不保证报告所述信息的准确性和完整性。本报告不能作 为投资研究决策的依据,不能作为道义的、责任的和法律的依据或者凭证,无论是否已经明示或者暗示。国投期货 有限公司将随时补充、更正和修订有关信息,但不保证及时发布。对于本报告所提供信息所导致的任何直接的或者 间接的投资盈亏后果不承担任何责任。 都泓佳 Z0017641 黄恬 Z0021089 表:近三次中央经济工作会议政策要点梳理 | 2025中央经济工作会议 | 2024中央经济工作会议 | 2023中央经济工作会议 | 经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展， | 现代化产业体系建设持续推进，改革 | 经济社会发展主要目标任务即将顺利完 | 开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风险化解 | | | | | | 成。当前外部环境变化带来的不利影响 | 取得积极进展， ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones reached record closing highs, indicating strong control over the U.S. stock market, with rebounds following declines and timely negative news to cool off overheating [1] - The Hong Kong stock market also saw a rise of 1.75% after a prior adjustment and the conclusion of significant meetings [1] Social Financing and Monetary Policy - In the first 11 months of the year, China's social financing increased by 33.39 trillion yuan, with RMB loans rising by 15.36 trillion yuan [1] - As of the end of November, the broad money supply (M2) was 336.99 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 112.89 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [1] Economic Policy and Market Reactions - The People's Bank of China plans to conduct a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to inject liquidity into the market by the end of the year [2] - The central economic work conference did not present significant highlights, but the focus is on establishing a "national unified market" to break local protectionism, benefiting the express delivery industry [2] Industry Trends - The domestic agricultural machinery market is seeing a significant increase in recognition, with tractor exports rising by 35% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - The AI sector is experiencing a surge, with major companies like MiniMax and Zhiyuan planning IPOs, which will increase demand for computing power [5] Stock Performance - Companies in the agricultural machinery sector, such as First Tractor Company, saw stock prices rise over 11% due to increased export growth [3] - In the AI-related sector, stocks like Cambridge Technology and Changfei Optical Fiber Cable rose nearly 8% and over 4%, respectively, driven by the anticipated demand from upcoming IPOs [5] Equipment and Technology Developments - GE Vernova expects to sign contracts for 80 gigawatts of combined cycle gas turbine capacity by the end of the year, indicating strong demand for gas turbines [4] - The global nuclear fusion market is projected to approach 500 billion USD by 2030, with several companies planning to establish commercial fusion power plants by 2040 [4] Excavator Sales Data - In November 2025, excavator sales reached 20,027 units, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%, with domestic sales growing by 9.11% [8] - The total sales of excavators from January to November 2025 were 212,162 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% [8] Company-Specific Developments - Tiangong International is expanding its titanium alloy business and has engaged in discussions with research institutes to innovate in high-end materials [9] - The company is also focusing on high-nitrogen steel for humanoid robot applications, having overcome technical barriers in production [10]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for reform to enhance high-quality development and address "involution" in competition, which is a key task for the upcoming year [1][7] - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is experiencing a recovery, with a 39.48% year-on-year increase in new installations, reaching 252.87 GW in the first ten months of the year [1][5] - The price of silicon materials has risen from 35,400 CNY/ton to 53,600 CNY/ton, indicating a positive trend in the market [1][4] Group 2 - The "involution" phenomenon in the PV industry has led to severe supply-demand imbalances and price wars, eroding profit margins and threatening long-term innovation [2][6] - The establishment of a monitoring and coordination mechanism by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association aims to address market failures and promote cooperative competition [3][6] - The industry has seen a significant increase in market capitalization, with a total market value of 296.8 billion CNY for listed PV companies, reflecting a 39.57% increase since April [5][6] Group 3 - The newly registered platform for polysilicon capacity integration is seen as a key initiative to combat "involution" through market-driven and legal mechanisms [6] - The central economic work conference's focus on creating a unified national market and further reform of state-owned enterprises aligns with the PV industry's efforts to stabilize and innovate [7][8] - The transition from cost competition to value creation in the PV industry is driven by innovation and the need to build a strong domestic market [8][9]

2026年中国经济怎么干？一图读懂！ 中央经济工作会议 12月10日至11日在北京举行 如何做好明年经济工作？ 一图梳理↓ 我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有 改变。要坚定信心、用好优势、应对挑战,不断 巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头。 五个"必须" 240元 - SE S M P 0%列 - 【 的 - 必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好" 0%如果 投资手物和投资于人紧密结合 2%列以普绕内功度应对外部挑战 总体要求 上一篇： - 140 11 12 2 7 2 暨続急中发起工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工 假和国际经贸科争,更好统筹发展和安全 初审：李振斌 复审：王进 终审：周鹤 圆地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大 市场推出设 着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期 征远经济ஜ现员的有效提升和量的合理增长,保 持在线和谐稳起。 ஜ现"十五五"良好开局 政策部署 堅持稳中求過。提质增效 继续要就可到加盟网的财政政策 继续到随着原因的货币政策 增强泵观政策取向一致性和有效性 健全预期管理机制，提振社会信心 2026年经济工作抓好以下重点任务 rtt Extrade and and the will be th ...

央广网北京12月12日消息（记者张棉棉 李思默 王泽华）据中央广播电视总台中国之声报道，中央 经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出，今年是很不平凡的一年，经济社会发展主要目标 将顺利完成。我国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，现代化产业体系建设持续推进，改革开放迈出新步 伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力。 会议认为，通过实践，我们对做好新形势下经济工作又有了新的认识和体会：必须充分挖掘经济潜 能，必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举，必须做到既"放得活"又"管得好"，必须坚持投资于物和投资于 人紧密结合，必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗 争，更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内 需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力。 明年将纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市 场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开 局。2026年中国经济怎么干？ 会议认为， ...

央视网消息：中央经济工作会议指出，明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。如何理解明年财政政策的取向？来看专家的解读。 中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量。专家表示，明年的财政政策取 向与2025年保持了一致。 中国财政科学研究院院长杨志勇称："明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，这是基于对国内外经济形势判断所作出的选择。这也可以看到 政策是一以贯之的，政策是保持相当力度的。跟明年的经济工作的目标来说是相称的，它能够支撑经济目标的实现。" 粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长罗志恒称："从量的角度，我们要确保必要的财政赤字规模、新增债务总规模以及必要的财政支出力 度。通过政府的支出，比如政府采购以及基建工程项目来扩大社会的总需求，来形成居民部门、企业部门的收入，推动经济运行的循环。第二 个就是结构的优化，要坚持将投资于物和投资于人的结合，提高居民的医疗、教育和养老，这样居民的后顾之忧得到了缓解，进而有利于去释 放潜在的消费需求。" 杨志勇称："如果说税收优惠、财政补贴不够规范，它实际上是把统一的市场给它分割成不同的小市场，市场的潜力就没办法充分地挖 掘。所以规范税收优 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing emphasizes the need to fully tap economic potential, combining policy support with reform and innovation, and focusing on both material and human investment to address external challenges [1][4]. Macroeconomic Policy - The conference calls for a more proactive macroeconomic policy that enhances forward-looking, targeted, and coordinated measures, aiming to continuously expand domestic demand and optimize supply [1][8]. - It stresses the importance of maintaining a necessary fiscal deficit and total debt scale while optimizing fiscal expenditure structure and addressing local fiscal difficulties [2][8]. - A moderately loose monetary policy is advocated, with a focus on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, utilizing various policy tools to maintain liquidity [2][8]. Key Tasks - The conference outlines several key tasks, including: 1. Prioritizing domestic demand and building a strong domestic market, with initiatives to boost consumption and increase central budget investment [3][9]. 2. Fostering innovation and enhancing new growth drivers, including improving intellectual property protection in emerging fields [3][9]. 3. Promoting coordinated development and urban-rural integration, while ensuring a stable real estate market and managing local government debt risks [3][9]. Overall Attitude - The conference reflects a more optimistic and determined attitude towards future economic challenges, shifting from a focus on recognizing difficulties to consolidating and expanding economic stability [4][10]. - There is a strong emphasis on structural adjustments and reforms, with a focus on quality and efficiency improvements in macroeconomic governance [4][10]. Future Outlook - The outlook for the A-share market suggests a favorable environment for investment as policy and liquidity converge positively, with expectations for a spring market rally [6][12]. - The bond market is also expected to benefit from the conference's outcomes, with a focus on maintaining fiscal policy stability and potential interest rate cuts in early 2024 [6][12].

核心观点 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。在12月政治局会议的指导精神下开展工作部署。我们认 为在经济工作稳中求进的同时，整体政策取向把握两条主线： 一是更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，二是加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。 如果国际经贸斗争超预期，则政策取向将加大逆周期调节力度；如果外部环境和外需基本稳定，则更侧 重于跨周期调节。 内容摘要 >>一、坚持内需为主导 >>二、创新驱动壮大新动能 会议强调"坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能"。2026年作为十五五开局之年，有望进一步加快发展新 质生产力。"十五五"建议稿对新兴产业和未来产业的发展方向做出指引，在新兴产业方面，加快新能 源、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群发展；在未来产业方面，推动量子科技、生物 制造、氢能和核聚变能、脑机接口、具身智能、第六代移动通信等成为新的经济增长点。 会议提出，制定一体推进教育科技人才发展方案。我们认为教育要更好地为"新质生产力"服务，培养与 科技创新相适应的人才。科技创新已成为影响产业变革的最大变量，这些都对教育的学科专业设置提出 了更高要求。 投资于人将与科技创新相结合，重点培育科技人才，响应 ...

政策探微·经济新象——中央经济工作会议系列评论 评论员 邱延波 市场如流水，如果壁垒高筑，则死水一潭；如果拆墙疏通，便奔流不息。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议确定了明年经济工作重点任务，提出"制定全国 统一大市场建设条例，深入整治'内卷式'竞争"。 这不是空洞的口号，而是实打实的行动指南。这一步棋，旨在用法治的利剑斩断隐性壁垒，让市场规则 像阳光一样普照每个角落。 想想看，过去一些地方为了护着自家企业，搞出"政策洼地"，结果呢？市场被切割得七零八落，资源重 复浪费，企业跨省迁移像过五关斩六将一样艰难。现在，通过"五统一、一开放"的框架——统一市场基 础制度、统一市场基础设施、统一政府行为尺度、统一市场监管执法、统一要素资源市场，并持续扩大 开放——这一切都将迎来转机。 举个简单的例子，统一大市场不是要把全国变成一个大工厂，而是要把全国变成一个大操场——规则一 样、哨子一样、起跑线一样，谁腿长谁就跑前面。以前那种各自为政、小院高墙，将不复存在。 "五统一、一开放"听着像文件语言，其实翻译成大白话就八个字：规则统一，机会均等。 产权保护不 再分国企民企、外企内企；招标投标不再暗藏"本地优 ...

纵深推进全国统一大市场建设从何处发力？服务业扩大开放将如何重塑市场格局？内外贸一体化发展，外贸企业如何进一步拓 市场、增订单？围绕上述热点经济问题，商务部原副部长、中国国际经济交流中心资深专家咨询委员会委员魏建国近日接受中 国经济网记者专访。 全国统一大市场关系你我生活 记者："十五五"规划建议将"全国统一大市场建设纵深推进，超大规模市场优势持续显现"列为主要目标之一。如何看待全国统 一大市场带来的发展机遇？纵深推进全国统一大市场建设从何处发力？ 魏建国：把全国统一大市场看成"暴富机会"，是过于简单化、功利化的解读。全国统一大市场建设本质上是一场深刻的系统性 改革，并非一张能让人瞬间"逆天改命的彩票"。 全国统一大市场建设的最终目的，是让资金、技术、人才、数据等生产要素按照市场规律"动"起来、"转"起来、"跑"起来。这些 生产要素在"跑"的过程中，要实现最佳配置，达到"投入最小、产出最大、效益最优"的目标，还要创造更高的价值，实 现"1+1>3"甚至更好的效果。 结构方面，产业结构与消费结构不匹配的问题需要引起重视。我国已经进入后工业化社会，速度比其他国家快，但消费型社会 的进度相对滞后，产业结构与消费需求脱 ...