美债收益率若升至5%，美股是否必然承压？ 据追风交易台消息，瑞银（UBS）最新报告指出，关键不在于美债收益率本身，而在于它如何上涨。"收益率上行的路径"是由经济增长驱动还是 由风险溢价（term premium）推动，其对股市的影响截然不同。 报告强调，若由经济增长和企业盈利预期改善推动，标普500有望上行至6200点；若由风险溢价上升（如财政赤字、政策不确定性）驱动，则对美 股尤其是防御板块构成压力。 收益率的变动路径比最终数值更重要 如果谈论美国债券收益率升至5%或更高，那么达到目标的过程将至关重要。 瑞银报告称，10年期美债收益率是全球无风险利率的重要锚，也是股市现金流折现的核心参数。当这一利率上升时，未来现金流的现值下降，从 而对股票估值构成压力。然而，市场并非静态调整，收益率的变化通常与其他变量同步发生，例如企业盈利预期、风险溢价和宏观经济环境。 "收益率从来不是孤岛"，瑞银策略师团队强调。10年期美债收益率的变动通常与股票估值的两大核心要素——风险溢价和盈利预期——同步波 动。真正决定股市走向的，是推动收益率上行的主导因素。 | Factors of investment returns | Ma ...

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 6 月 3 日 增量资金相对均衡，大盘风格为主 ❑大类资产表现复盘：股票市场方面，全球股市普涨，美欧>港股＞A 股。外汇方面， 美元兑人民币汇率震荡下行，英镑兑美元大幅升值。大宗商品方面，原油、白银 价格上涨，黄金价格基本持平。原油价格快速上涨主要受益于 OPEC+增产节奏放 缓和美国库存超预期下降，以及地缘风险支撑。债市方面，美债利率持续上行， 中债利率震荡。 ——A 股流动性与风格跟踪月报（202506） ❑流动性与资金供需：6 月增量资金或有望温和净流入，各类资金或相对均衡。5 月 央行降准降息落地，MLF 加量续作，资金利率低位波动，资金面整体宽松，展望 6 月随着关税对经济的影响逐渐显现，资金面有望维持宽松。关税对美国通胀的影 响在 4 月的数据中仍不明显，市场对美联储降息预期整体降温，全年降息预期收 敛至 1-2 次，首次降息时点推迟至 9 月。5 月股票市场可跟踪资金紧平衡，各类增 量资金相对均衡。资金供给端，新发偏股基金规模有所收窄；市场冲高回落，ETF 转为净赎回；市场风险偏好有所改善，但融资资金仅小幅净流入。资金需求端， 重要股东净减持规模扩大 ...

美债收益率在ISM制造业PMI数据公布后收窄涨幅，10年期国债收益率最后持平于4.422%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the mild increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which rose by only 0.1% for the month, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 2.1%, aligning with Dow Jones' previous forecast but 0.1 percentage points lower than the estimated annual inflation rate [3] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, showed stable monthly and annual growth rates of 0.1% and 2.5% respectively, slightly below market expectations of 0.1% and 2.6%, indicating a further easing of inflationary pressures [3] - Economists express concerns about potential inflation risks triggered by tariffs, despite historical evidence suggesting limited direct impact of tariffs on inflation [3] Group 2 - The bond market reflects complex sentiments regarding long-term economic prospects, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield adjusting by 0.2 basis points to 3.937%, the 10-year yield nearly unchanged at 4.416%, and the 30-year yield rising by 0.6 basis points to 4.929% [3] - The gold futures market is currently showing a bullish trend, with prices trading around 771.80 yuan per gram, up by 0.98%, and reaching a high of 776.16 yuan per gram [1]

Group 1 - The ongoing review of Trump's tariff policy by the courts is causing market volatility, indicating a turbulent summer for Wall Street [1] - The comprehensive tariff policy announced on April 2 has significantly impacted the technology sector, although major stock indices have rebounded to near historical highs by the end of May [1] - The aggressive tariff policy has shaken the confidence of foreign investors holding trillions in U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to labor shortages in agriculture and construction due to immigration restrictions and government spending cuts [1] Group 2 - Despite companies stockpiling goods in the first quarter to cope with tariffs, weak shipping data in May shows continued caution in the business community [2] - The international trade court ruled multiple tariffs illegal, but the execution of this ruling has been temporarily stayed, leaving industries like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors still facing new tariff threats [2] - With the debt ceiling crisis approaching in August and inflation uncertainties, the Federal Reserve is maintaining a wait-and-see approach, suggesting that investors should seize opportunities in high-yielding Treasury bonds before rates decline [2]

Core Viewpoint - Dalio's "3% Solution" is gaining traction among White House officials and Republican leaders as a potential remedy for the U.S. fiscal crisis, despite ongoing efforts to pass a massive spending bill that could disrupt the bond market [1][2] Summary by Sections Proposed Solution - The "3% Solution" aims to reduce the annual deficit as a percentage of GDP from approximately 7% to 3% through three levers: spending cuts, tax increases, and corresponding interest rate reductions [1] Historical Context - Dalio asserts that the 3% Solution has been effective in various instances, with the most recent success occurring in the U.S. from 1991 to 1998 [1] Market Implications - The relationship between U.S. Treasury yields and the budget is critical, as declining confidence in fiscal discipline leads to higher Treasury yields in the bond market [1] Political Challenges - There is a lack of bipartisan interest in substantial spending cuts, and tax increases are also difficult to initiate, which could result in higher interest rates [2] Urgency for Action - Dalio emphasizes that both parties acknowledge the necessity of reducing the deficit to around 3% of GDP to avoid dire consequences, likening the situation to a ship heading towards a reef [2] Potential Triggers for Legislative Action - A debt crisis may serve as a compelling mechanism to prompt lawmakers to take action to avert fiscal disaster [2]

"' 狼 ' 已经逼近家门口 " "大而美"法案难解美国政府债台高筑的困局，导致市场对此并不买账。市场上，美债抛售压力挥之难去，收益率居高难下。 【环球时报报道 记者 倪浩】"我认为一项法案可以规模庞大，也可以很美，但我觉得它很难两者兼得。"美国哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）28日引述 美国亿万富翁马斯克在接受专访时的话报道称，他对此前在众议院通过并得到特朗普支持的"大而美"税收与支出法案（下称"大而美"法案）感 到"很失望"，称其破坏了"政府效率部"（DOGE）团队的工作。该言论引发媒体对马斯克与特朗普的关系，以及美国债务问题的广泛关注。当 前"大而美"法案仍在"难产"中，法案本身的错综复杂和美国内部的严重分歧，进一步增加了法案落地的难度，也使得美国债务上限问题久拖不 决，美债持续震荡。 美国众议院上周以一票优势惊险通过"大而美"法案，接下来该法案提交参议院进行投票。英国《金融时报》报道称，尽管"大而美"法案削减了一 些财政开支，但仍遭到"赤字鹰派"（通常强硬主张通过一系列措施减少财政赤字——编者注）强烈批评。据估计，该法案将在未来十年内增加美 国国债负担逾3.3万亿美元。而马斯克长期以来一直声称，如果赤字不减 ...

两年期美债收益率跌5.35个基点，报3.9386%，日内交投于4.0478%-3.9324%区间。 周四（5月29日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率跌5.93个基点，报4.4180%，日内交投于 4.5370%-4.4121%区间，北京时间18:00-22:00显著下挫。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields is primarily attributed to the "Trump premium" rather than economic cycles or inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Treasury Yields - The long-end Treasury yield increase cannot be solely explained by fundamental factors, as the current rise is significantly higher than typical scenarios of "recession" or "soft landing" [1][2]. - The recent economic growth in the U.S. is marginally weakening under fiscal stimulus, with soft data declines and tariff impacts not favoring long-term economic growth [2]. - The "Trump premium" is influenced by several factors, including Moody's downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit rating, the passage of the "beautiful big law" leading to a projected $3.1 trillion deficit over the next decade, and uncertainties surrounding Trump's long-term reforms [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook on Treasury Yields - There is potential for further decline in Treasury yields, especially with the negative impacts of tariffs yet to fully materialize and the possibility of the Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts [4]. - The projected long-term deficit growth may not fully reflect the fiscal revenue from tariffs, suggesting that the actual deficit expansion might be less severe than anticipated [4]. - Long-term Treasury yields exceeding the nominal growth rate in the U.S. could lead to unsustainable interest payment pressures, indicating a need for a reduction in long-end rates [6]. Group 3: Long-term Debt Solutions - The U.S. may face several long-term debt resolution strategies, including painful deficit tightening, partial restructuring of interest payments, or yield curve control (YCC) [8]. - The likelihood of painful deficit tightening seems low under the current two-party electoral system, as reducing spending programs may not garner sufficient voter support [8].

Group 1: Trade and Economic Policy - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that President Trump's imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded legal authority, emphasizing that the Constitution grants Congress exclusive power over foreign trade [1] - The ruling indicates a potential shift in trade policy and could impact future tariff decisions and international trade relations [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed that most policymakers acknowledged facing "difficult trade-offs" in the coming months, with concerns about rising inflation and unemployment [3] - There are warnings about increasing recession risks and the need to monitor recent volatility in the bond market, which could pose risks to financial stability [3] - Changes in the dollar's safe-haven status and rising U.S. Treasury yields may have long-term economic implications [3] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - International gold prices have seen a significant decline, breaking the key support level of 3280 and reaching around 3245, indicating a bearish trend [4] - The daily chart shows a four-day consecutive decline, with MACD indicators suggesting a potential shift to a bearish trend if it falls below the zero line [4] - Short-term trading strategies suggest selling on rallies around the 3282-93 range, with support targets set at 3260-3250 and further down to 3209 if broken [6]