Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting, citing slightly elevated inflation and a robust job market, while noting a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Economic activity growth has slowed in the first half of the year, influenced by fluctuations in net exports [2]. - The unemployment rate remains low, indicating a solid job market [2]. - Inflation is still slightly above the target level of 2% [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to hold the interest rate is aimed at achieving maximum employment and maintaining long-term inflation at 2% [2]. - The committee will continue to monitor economic data and risks before making further adjustments to the interest rate [2]. - The committee is committed to reducing its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities [2]. Group 3: Voting Members - Support for the monetary policy decision came from several key members, including Jerome Powell, John Williams, and others [3]. - Opposing views were expressed by Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, who favored a 25 basis point rate cut [3].

今夜美联储7月利率决议，"维持利率不变"几乎板上钉钉，但市场的关注点早已转向主席鲍威尔的表 态：9月是否会降息？两位鸽派理事的罕见"异议"是否将打破共识？特朗普施压、经济数据放缓、关税 影响待解……一场暗流正在汹涌。 9月降息预期升温 美联储今年仅剩三次政策会议。据花旗经济学家Veronica Clark分析，基于6月美联储官员预测的中位数 显示今年将降息两次25个基点，这使得9月降息看起来很可能实现。 "一般官员仍处于观望模式，但9月是非常合理的，"Clark表示。 然而，银行政策研究所(Bank Policy Institute)首席经济学家Bill Nelson指出，关税对通胀的传导仍未完全 显现，鲍威尔可能会保持选择余地，直到对经济方向有更多清晰认识。在下次9月16-17日会议前，决策 者将看到两份就业报告和更多通胀、支出及住房数据。 根据联邦基金期货合约定价，投资者已将9月降息概率定价在60%以上。美联储官员可能不希望这一概 率在审查经济数据前进一步上升。 历史罕见的"官员异议"可能登场 分析认为，如果美联储在会后声明中继续将就业市场描述为"稳固"，可能引发担心美国就业形势更加脆 弱的官员投下反对票 ...

进入7月的最后一周，本周市场继续聚焦美股财报季（包括亚马逊、苹果公司、Meta Platforms和微软）的同时，市场迎来美联储利率决议、美国季度GDP和 非农作为重磅压轴行情，同时关注在美国关税最后期限逼近之前，周末已经和欧盟达成框架协议后，是否有更多的国家和美国达成贸易协议，将共同决定市 场进入8月份行情的方向。 周一：美国达拉斯联储商业活动指数 周一市场数据清淡，可聚焦美国7月达拉斯联储商业活动指数，预计继续维持负值。 周二：美国职位空缺、消费者信心指数 周二关注美国6月JOLTs职位空缺，该指数是美国商业，工业和政府的职位空缺月度报告，从职位空缺的变化可以直接观察美国就业需求的变化，所以该数 据公布可以提前带来就业行情。同时段会公布美国7月谘商会消费者信心指数，预计有望延续改善的趋势。 周三聚焦德国第二季度GDP初值，可能会录得温和的增长，但警惕数据是否会意外低于预期则可能陷入萎缩，同时段的欧元区GDP报告将共同影响市场对于 欧元区经济前景的判断，并影响欧元和欧洲股指的表现，前值显示欧元区经济小幅优于预期，促使欧央行在上周暂停降息。 重点聚焦当晚美国美国第二季度实际GDP年化季率初值，前值意外录得负值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in initial jobless claims may mask the true weakness of the labor market, as highlighted by Oliver Allen from Pantheon Macroeconomics [1] Group 1: Labor Market Analysis - Despite the decrease in initial jobless claims, the labor market's weakness may not be accurately reflected due to seasonal adjustments affected by summer maintenance shutdowns in auto factories [1] - The current level of continuing claims for unemployment benefits remains high, indicating a slow but steady deterioration in the labor market [1]

Group 1 - The latest PMI data indicates that the Bank of England faces dual pressures from a weak labor market and rising prices [1][2] - The UK composite PMI fell from 52.0 in June to 51.0 in July, showing only slight growth in business activity [1] - Employment numbers decreased at the fastest rate in five months, with the employment index dropping to 45.1, the lowest since February [1] Group 2 - Concerns over weak demand are affecting hiring decisions, with input price inflation in business activities rising as suppliers attempt to offset tax increases and rising wage costs [2] - The Bank of England is in a dilemma regarding whether to prioritize inflation or employment, leading to potential divisions in the upcoming August meeting [2] - Market expectations lean towards a rate cut announcement in the August 7 meeting, despite June's inflation rate rising to 3.6%, above the 2% target [2] Group 3 - Economic forecasts suggest that the UK economy will maintain slow and steady growth this year and next, with expectations of two more rate cuts in August and November [3] - The anticipated economic growth rate for the UK this year is 1.1%, consistent with previous forecasts, and expected to rise slightly to 1.2% by 2026 [3] - Inflation is projected to remain above the 2% target until the end of 2026, with average inflation rates of 3.2% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026 [3]

神译局是36氪旗下编译团队，关注科技、商业、职场、生活等领域，重点介绍国外的新技 术、新观点、新风向。 编者按：产品副总裁半年投递500份简历，亲历就业市场剧变：中层岗蒸发、AI岗认知混乱、薪资区间 下移、投资人干预招聘决策成常态。就业市场该何去何从？双方都在摸索。文章来自编译。 她什么工作都申请过了。这是她的领悟。 "哎呦，乔，我做到了。什么工作我都申请过了。" "萨姆"（Sam）就是这样开始我们对话的。这话让我忍不住大笑起来。 我得赶紧先介绍一下背景。 萨姆曾经是产品副总裁，项目管理出身。自从去年年底被裁员后，她就一直失业在家，到现在快六个月 了。 上周，萨姆惊讶地发现，经过她六个月的不懈努力之后，她已经把自己勉强够格的工作全都申请了个 遍。无一遗漏。她再也无事可做了。已经没有她没仔细筛过的职位描述，也没有她没研究和联系过的公 司，更没有人脉圈子里她还没"骚扰"过的人了。 于是她给我打电话，约我出来喝咖啡。 虽有夸张，但萨姆确实申请了数百个职位，"可能超过500个"，她说。她已经经历了数十次初筛和"肯定 超过50轮"的面试车轮战。 如果说眼下正在爆发求职战，那么以下就是萨姆从战场前线学到的。 对ATS（招 ...

澳洲联储主席布洛克：就业市场的领先指标并未表明失业率将上升。其他劳动力市场指标，如空缺率， 一直保持稳定。 ...

Core Insights - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes indicate that the labor market has not slowed down as expected, suggesting resilience in employment conditions [1] - The risk of a severe global economic downturn has decreased, reflecting a more stable international economic environment [1] Group 1 - The employment market remains robust, contrary to previous expectations of a slowdown [1] - Global economic risks have lessened, indicating improved economic stability [1]

Economic Overview - In July, economic prices increased while volumes decreased, indicating a search for rebalancing in supply and demand, with marginal economic growth expected to slow down[1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase, with the year-on-year decline in growth narrowing, primarily driven by the "anti-involution" policy expectations[1][45] Real Estate Market - The sales sentiment in the real estate market weakened, with both month-on-month and year-on-year growth turning negative; the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities decreased by 15.85% compared to June[2][11] - It is anticipated that first-tier city housing prices may stabilize by the end of the year, while second-tier cities may see stabilization by June next year[2][48] Industrial Demand - Industrial demand showed a mild recovery, with the rebar production rate increasing to 43.06%, up 0.87 percentage points from June, while prices slightly decreased by 0.16%[15] - The average operating rate for asphalt plants rose to 32.4%, indicating a recovery in demand, with asphalt inventory decreasing by 7.31%[18] Consumer Behavior - July consumer spending is expected to remain resilient, supported by a surge in tourism during the summer, with domestic tourism projected to exceed 2.5 billion trips, recovering to over 115% of 2019 levels[26] - The average daily subway ridership in major cities increased, reflecting a rebound in travel demand during the summer[23] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include unexpected intensification of global trade frictions, geopolitical conflicts, and policy effects falling short of expectations[3]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a 25 basis point interest rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting, highlighting a critical divergence in monetary policy as inflation approaches targets while the job market shows signs of weakness [1][5]. Economic Data Insights - Waller's perspective stands out within the Federal Reserve, as he identifies a significant slowdown in private sector job growth and a continuous decline in wage growth, indicating pressure on the labor market [3]. - The June employment report supports Waller's concerns, showing a slight decrease in the unemployment rate but complicating job data interpretation due to a sharp reduction in foreign labor [3]. Inflation Analysis - U.S. inflation data bolsters Waller's argument, with the core inflation rate falling below expectations for the fifth consecutive month. He emphasizes the stability of inflation expectations and moderate wage growth, suggesting that policy should focus on core inflation levels near the 2% target, rather than temporary tariff-induced fluctuations [5]. Diverging Opinions within the Fed - Despite Waller's stance, many Federal Reserve officials believe it is premature to cut rates while inflation remains uncontained and there are no clear signs of economic recession. This divergence creates uncertainty for the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting [7]. - Waller and Vice Chair Michelle Bowman share a consensus that the primary risk has shifted from inflation to the job market, warning that the mission of ensuring full employment is increasingly at risk [5][7]. Market Reactions - Wall Street traders have begun to bet on the probability of a rate cut, leading to subtle changes in the bond market yield curve. However, Waller cautions that any policy adjustments should be gradual, reflecting a nuanced understanding of the economic turning point [7].