受贸易紧张局势和鲍威尔降息信号推动，现货黄金突破4180美元/盎司，再创历史新高，日内上涨0.9%。 下载财联社APP获取更多资讯 准确 快速 权威 专业 7x24h电报 头条新闻 VIP资讯 实时盯盘 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that officials may halt balance sheet reduction in the coming months, acknowledging signs of tightening in the money market [1] - Powell noted that since the September FOMC meeting, inflation and employment outlooks have remained largely unchanged, but he emphasized increasing signs of weakness in the labor market [1] - Powell hinted at the possibility of a 25 basis point rate cut later this month, despite the government shutdown complicating the Fed's understanding of the economic situation [1] Group 2 - A YouGov survey revealed that 57% of American adults believe the economy is worsening, the highest percentage since 2024, reflecting concerns over government shutdowns, inflation, and partisan divisions [2] - The report highlighted that economic slowdown, declining consumer confidence, layoffs, high inflation, and trade wars are impacting economic prospects, particularly for middle and low-income groups [2] - Despite potential Fed rate cuts, ongoing uncertainty and layoffs pose challenges to economic recovery, with unresolved issues related to government shutdowns and rising prices likely exacerbating public pessimism [2]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential for interest rate cuts this month due to a deteriorating labor market, despite the impact of the government shutdown on economic assessments [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Powell's remarks reinforced expectations for further rate cuts, with a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October according to CME FedWatch [1][7] - Analysts believe Powell's statements have paved the way for the Fed to announce the end of its balance sheet reduction at the upcoming policy meeting [6] - The market is increasingly confident in a rate cut, with some analysts stating that the October cut is almost certain given the ongoing risks in the labor market [6][7] Group 2: Labor Market Insights - Powell noted that the employment and inflation outlook has not changed significantly since the last meeting, but risks to employment have increased [2][3] - He emphasized the slow hiring pace and the likelihood of a further decline in the unemployment rate, with job vacancies decreasing [2] - The government shutdown has led to missing non-farm payroll data, making private sector employment reports the primary source of employment data [2] Group 3: Quantitative Tightening (QT) Status - Powell suggested that the Fed's long-standing plan for balance sheet reduction may be nearing its end, with careful monitoring of liquidity indicators [4][5] - He acknowledged signs of tightening liquidity but assured that the Fed would take cautious measures to avoid a repeat of the 2019 market stress [4][5] - Since mid-2022, the Fed has been reducing liquidity through QT, with the balance sheet currently at $6.6 trillion [4]

Market Performance - On October 14, US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.44%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.16% and 0.76% respectively [2][3] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Nvidia dropping 4.41%, resulting in a market value loss of over $200 billion (approximately 14,000 million RMB) [1][4] Tech Sector Insights - The Wind data indicates that the Wind US Technology Seven Giants Index decreased by 1.26% [4] - Individual stocks such as Amazon and Tesla also saw declines of over 1% [4] Semiconductor Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 2.28%, with Intel and Broadcom experiencing drops of over 4% and 3% respectively [4] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index decreased by 1.95%, while the Wind Chinese Technology Leaders Index fell by 1.52% [6] Commodity Market - On October 14, international precious metal futures showed mixed results, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.64% and COMEX silver futures declining by 0.17% [8] - Crude oil prices also fell, with the main US oil contract down 1.51% and Brent crude down 1.63% due to oversupply concerns and weak demand [8] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed may halt balance sheet contraction in the coming months, acknowledging signs of tightening in the money market [10] - Powell suggested potential support for another rate cut this month, citing increasing risks in the labor market [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated the possibility of a rate cut in October due to the deteriorating labor market, despite the impact of the government shutdown on economic assessments [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Powell's remarks reinforced expectations for further rate cuts, with a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October according to CME FedWatch [1][7]. - Analysts believe Powell's statements have solidified the market's belief in a rate cut, with some suggesting that the October cut is almost certain due to ongoing labor market risks [6][7]. Group 2: Labor Market Insights - Powell noted that the employment and inflation outlook has not changed significantly since the last meeting, but risks to employment have increased, prompting the September rate cut [2][3]. - He emphasized the slow hiring pace and the potential for further declines in the unemployment rate, with job vacancies decreasing [2][3]. Group 3: Quantitative Tightening (QT) Status - Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve's long-term plan for reducing its balance sheet (QT) may be nearing its end, with careful monitoring of liquidity indicators [4][5]. - The Fed's balance sheet has been reduced to $6.6 trillion since mid-2022, and Powell acknowledged signs of tightening liquidity in the banking system [5][6]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, U.S. stock markets showed a rebound, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing up 0.44% after initially dipping [7]. - Major tech stocks experienced declines, while some banks like Wells Fargo and Citigroup saw significant gains due to better-than-expected earnings [7].

今日必读🍳特朗普威胁切断对华食用油等贸易🕊️鲍威尔发言巩固10月份降息预期🔪高盛通知员工将有新一轮裁员获取免费中文电子报《彭博财经早茶》，洞悉全球市场动态。Catch up on what's moving China's markets in our free Chinese language newsletter. https://t.co/c3JZyziDsZ ...

当地时间10月14日，美股收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.44%，标普500指数跌0.16%，纳指跌0.76%。美股大型科技股多数下跌，英伟达跌4.41%，市值一夜缩水 逾2000亿美元（约合人民币超14000亿元）。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美联储可能在未来几个月停止收缩资产负债表，他承认货币市场出现紧缩"迹象"。鲍威尔暗示可能准备支持本月再次降息。 美股大型科技股多数下跌 美油主力合约收跌1.51%；布伦特原油主力合约跌1.63%。国际能源署发布看空预测，同时欧佩克+产量增加，供需面呈现过剩迹象，叠加市场担忧需求疲 软，导致油价承压。 当地时间10月14日，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一。Wind数据显示，截至收盘，道指涨0.44%，标普500指数跌0.16%，纳指跌0.76%。 美股大型科技股多数下跌，万得美国科技七巨头指数下跌1.26%。个股方面，英伟达跌超4%，亚马逊、特斯拉跌超1%。 | < W | 万得美国科技七巨头指数(MAGS) 62681.38 -802.91 -1.26% | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | lle li lle li de la trib ...

美联储主席鲍威尔周二警告称，美国劳动力市场显示出进一步的困境迹象，暗示他可能准备支持本月晚 些时候再次降息。鲍威尔指出："就业的下行风险已经上升。"这是迄今为止最强烈的暗示，表明美联储 官员认为他们有足够的证据支持将美国借贷成本再次下调25个基点。鲍威尔补充说，即使没有新的劳工 统计局数据（因政府关门而推迟），私人制作的就业市场指标以及美联储内部研究也提供了足够的理 由，表明就业市场正在降温。"现有证据"表明"裁员和招聘人数仍然很低"，而"家庭对就业机会的看法 和企业对招聘困难的看法继续呈下降趋势"。这些言论表明，鲍威尔在货币政策上变得更加鸽派。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that officials may halt the balance sheet reduction in the coming months, acknowledging signs of tightening in the money markets [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - Powell stated that bank reserves remain "ample," but officials are closely monitoring various indicators to determine when to stop the reduction [2] - Since the September FOMC monetary policy meeting, inflation and employment outlooks appear largely unchanged, although signs of labor market weakness are increasing [3][4] - Powell noted that even without government data during the shutdown, the "downside risks to employment seem to have risen" [5] Group 2: Future Rate Decisions - Powell retained the possibility of a rate cut in October, emphasizing that officials face a challenging choice between prematurely ending the fight against inflation and delaying support for the labor market [6] - Market reactions to Powell's comments were evident in the widening of dollar swap spreads, with the Bloomberg Dollar Index dropping to a daily low and U.S. Treasury yields declining following his remarks [7]

Market Overview - US stock markets opened lower on October 14, with the Nasdaq index dropping over 1% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 365.99 points, or 0.79%, while the Nasdaq index decreased by 336.65 points, or 1.48% [2] - The S&P 500 index also saw a decline of 63.04 points, or 0.95% [2] Commodity Performance - Crude oil prices continued to decline, with WTI crude dropping over 2% to $58.24 per barrel [5] - Gold prices rebounded after a short-term adjustment, with international spot gold rising by 0.5% to $4130.11 per ounce [5][6] Company Highlights - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) saw a counter-trend increase, with a latest gain of 2.48% as Oracle Cloud plans to deploy 50,000 AMD AI chips in the second half of 2026 [2] - Chinese stocks listed in the US experienced a broad decline, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index dropping over 3% [3][4] Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected a 3.2% growth for the global economy in 2025, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the July forecast [1]