欧洲央行管委Makhlouf表示，现阶段通胀企稳，无需急于降息。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision Insights - The market anticipates a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates during the July meeting[3] - Since the beginning of 2025, the Federal Reserve has kept rates unchanged due to mixed economic data and tariff concerns[3] - President Trump has increased pressure on the Federal Reserve for rate cuts, indicating a strong desire for lower rates[3] Group 2: Future Rate Cut Conditions - The upcoming meeting may clarify conditions for potential rate cuts, with Powell likely to outline specific criteria[3] - Three scenarios are considered for Powell's communication: maintaining ambiguity, indicating a possible September cut, or outlining conditions for future cuts[3] - The likelihood of maintaining a vague stance is deemed low due to increasing pressure from Trump and potential market volatility[3] Group 3: Market Volatility and Risks - The FOMC meeting precedes significant earnings reports from major tech companies and ongoing US-China trade talks, which may heighten market volatility[3] - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds, weaker global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions that could lead to increased market fluctuations[6]

距离美国的所谓8月1日"关税大限"日益逼近，美欧贸易协议也已经尘埃落定（至少表面上是），"懂王"特朗普自然轻松不少。 关税通牒 当地时间7月28日，特朗普表示，预计美国将对那些没有与华盛顿达成贸易协议的国家征收15%至20%的关税。其表示，美国将很快向大约200个国家发出关 税信函。这一消息很快再度引发全球媒体的热议。 特朗普此前已多次表示"时间有限""更愿意发封信设关税，而非寻求协议"。对于15%到20%的关税税率，特朗普称"我已经算是很友好了"。 另外，虽然美国目前已敲定与多个大国、包括欧盟之间的贸易协议，但不少细节尚未落实，其中存在不少的分歧，各国反对声浪不断高涨。 近日，法国总理贝鲁在社交媒体发文，批评美欧贸易协议。贝鲁在文中将美欧之间的贸易协议称为"冯德莱恩-特朗普协议"。他表示，欧盟始终团结一致捍 卫自身的价值与利益，但最终却选择了屈服，"那是一个黑暗的日子"。 匈牙利总理欧尔班表示，欧美协定比英美协定更为糟糕。欧尔班对欧盟将投资美国、向美方购买军事装备和能源表示强烈质疑，因为欧盟委员会既没有资金 也没有军队。 有分析人士指出，特朗普常常声称某些关税条款已经达成一致，但实际情况并没有他讲的那么明确 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced mixed results on July 28, with the Dow Jones down 0.14%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reached new historical highs [3] - The Nasdaq rose by 0.33%, closing at 21,178.58 points, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.02%, closing at 6,389.77 points [3] Key Events and Data - The upcoming week is termed a "super week" for the U.S. market, with significant events including earnings reports from major tech companies, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, and critical employment and inflation data [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's meeting on July 29-30 is highly anticipated, with a 96.9% probability of maintaining current interest rates and a 3.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut [7] Trade Agreements - President Trump announced a new trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S. and securing commitments for the purchase of $750 billion in U.S. energy products [4][5] - The agreement also includes a $600 billion investment from the EU in the U.S. and a commitment to purchase military equipment [4] Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, eight out of eleven sectors declined, with real estate and materials leading the losses at 1.75% and 1.44%, respectively [9] - The energy and technology sectors led the gains, with increases of 1.15% and 0.77% [9] Notable Company Movements - Nvidia reached a new all-time high with a market capitalization exceeding $4.3 trillion, as it prepares to enter the memory market [10] - Tesla's stock rose by 3.02% following the announcement of a $165 billion chip contract with Samsung [10] - Meta Platforms is expected to report strong Q2 earnings, with projected revenues of $45.5 billion, surpassing market expectations [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.5% this week, with potential dissent from dovish members Waller and Bowman, indicating a possibility of faster rate cuts in the future as more Trump-appointed officials join the board [1] Group 1 - The chief U.S. economist at Platts, Urupeirsi, anticipates that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this week [1] - Dovish members Waller and Bowman may argue for a rate cut, citing restrictive monetary policy due to inflation related to tariffs being offset by other factors [1] - The neutral interest rate is suggested to be close to 3%, which could support arguments for lowering rates [1] Group 2 - Powell is expected to guide the FOMC to wait as long as possible before the next rate cut, with a higher likelihood of a cut in October compared to September [1]

张尧浠：黄金再度回踩看涨支撑、基本面暗示仍待调整 上交易日周一(7月28日)：国际黄金低开走弱，倒垂收跌，贸易谈判和风险情绪回升，推动美元指数强势反弹收阳，打压金价，虽然特朗普言论的本周必 须降息，限制了金价跌幅，但周初的中美贸易谈判和本周的美联储利率决议及非农等仍在令市场观望，而减弱了多头动力，使其维持近日的回落趋势； 不过形态上，有一定的止跌信号，再加上ZZ指标已经显示触底，上升趋势线支撑也再度显现回踩看涨预期，因而，也暗示下方空间有限，昨日低点附近 或100日均线支撑位置，则是可看涨反弹的机会，有望维持震荡三角趋势再度上探3400美元上方。 另外，本周还将迎来美联储利率决议和非农等数据，决议上，市场预期利率保持不变，但特朗普认为美联储本周必须降息，如意外降息，金价将直接强势 反弹，如保持不变，则需关注鲍威尔和点阵图对于后市的利率政策的观点，如偏鸽将利好金价，如偏鹰将继续打压金价。 但如跌破100日均线支撑，则警惕进一步回落至3100美元或3000美元关口的风险。 具体走势上，金价自亚市低开近17美元至3321.78美元，先行震荡走强，于欧盘尾时段录得日内高点3344.99美元，之后转震荡回落，收复日内涨 ...

本周美股迎来"超级周"。 当地时间7月28日，美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.14%，纳指涨0.33%，标普500指数涨0.02%。 纳指与标普500再创历史新高。 本周美股迎来"超级周"，市场静待众多重磅事件、数据，包括多家科技巨头财报、美联储议息会议、特 朗普政府8月1日关税最后期限、非农就业数据及关键通胀数据等。 纳指、标普500指数创新高 特朗普再喊话降息 当地时间7月28日，美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一，纳指与标普500再创历史新高。截至收盘，道指跌 64.36点，跌幅为0.14%，报44837.56点；纳指涨70.26点，涨幅为0.33%，报21178.58点；标普500指数涨 1.13点，涨幅为0.02%，报6389.77点。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44837.56c | -64.36 | -0.14% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 21178.58c | 70.26 | 0.33% | | SPX | 标普500 | 6389.77c | 1.13 | ...

本周美股迎来"超级周"。 当地时间7月28日，美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.14%，纳指涨0.33%，标普500指数涨0.02%。纳指与标普500再创历史新高。 本周美股迎来"超级周"，市场静待众多重磅事件、数据，包括多家科技巨头财报、美联储议息会议、特朗普政府8月1日关税最后期 限、非农就业数据及关键通胀数据等。 纳指、标普500指数创新高 特朗普再喊话降息 当地时间7月28日，美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一，纳指与标普500再创历史新高。截至收盘，道指跌64.36点，跌幅为0.14%，报 44837.56点；纳指涨70.26点，涨幅为0.33%，报21178.58点；标普500指数涨1.13点，涨幅为0.02%，报6389.77点。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DJI | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44837.56c | -64.36 | -0.14% | | IXIC | 纳斯达克指数 | 21178.58c | 70.26 | 0.33% | | SPX | 标普500 | 6389.77c | 1.13 | 0 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.14%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.33% and the S&P 500 saw a slight increase [4] - Nvidia (NVDA.O) increased nearly 2%, Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 3%, and Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) surged 10% [4] - The Hang Seng Index closed up 0.68% at 25,562.13 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.24% to 564.02 points, with a total market turnover of 250.3 billion HKD [5] Group 2 - The international oil market saw a rebound, with WTI crude oil rising 2.85% to $66.70 per barrel, marking a two-week high, and Brent crude oil increasing 2.91% to $69.57 per barrel [3][6] - Gold prices fell for four consecutive days, closing down 0.68% at $3,314.63 per ounce, while silver prices remained unchanged at $38.17 per ounce [3][6] - The U.S. dollar index rose significantly, closing up 1% at 98.633 points, while U.S. Treasury yields mostly increased, with the 10-year yield at 4.417% [3][6]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.14%, the Nasdaq up 0.33%, and the S&P 500 up 0.02% [1][8] - The S&P 500 index reached a new high for the sixth consecutive trading day, while the Nasdaq set a record for the 14th time this month, marking July as the month with the most record highs since December 1999 [8] Sector Performance - Popular technology stocks mostly rose, with notable gains from AMD (up over 4%), Nvidia (up over 1%), and Tesla (up over 3%) [1][9] - The semiconductor equipment and materials sector, along with the oil and gas sector, saw significant gains, with Nabors Industries rising over 6% [1] Commodity Market - WTI crude oil futures rose by 2.38%, closing at $66.71 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 2.34%, closing at $70.04 per barrel [5] - In the precious metals market, COMEX gold futures fell by 0.65% to $3314 per ounce, and silver futures decreased by 0.09% to $38.33 per ounce [4] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.69%, with major Chinese stocks like iQIYI down over 3% and NIO down over 1% [2][11] - Alibaba saw a slight increase of 1.77%, while other Chinese stocks like Pinduoduo and Baidu experienced declines [12][11]