国外 1. 瑞银：欧洲央行的降息周期可能已经结束 瑞银分析师表示，欧洲央行的降息周期可能已经结束，预计在9月政策会议上将把存款利率维持在2%不 变。尽管我们预计2025年下半年欧元区经济将因美国关税而陷入停滞，且未来几个季度通胀水平将持平 或低于2%的目标，但欧洲央行料不会再进一步降息。这一判断主要基于欧盟正推出大规模财政刺激： 一方面，欧盟加强国防支出；另一方面，德国加大基础设施投资。分析师认为，这些措施将从2026年初 开始逐步显现效果，为经济提供支撑。 2. 盛宝银行：降息预期+工业需求驱动，白银长期基本面向好 受宏观经济支撑、工业需求增长以及供应短缺等多重因素推动，白银价格突破了40美元关口，为2011年 9月以来首次。最新报40.70美元/盎司。盛宝银行分析师奥勒·汉森在一份报告中表示，随着市场对美国 降息预期升温，白银正与黄金一同走高。此外，地缘政治风险加剧，以及特朗普试图罢免美联储理事库 克所引发的对美联储独立性的担忧，进一步推升了贵金属吸引力。与此同时，太阳能、电动汽车和电子 产品的广泛应用持续带动白银消费增长。尽管银价波动性通常高于黄金，但其长期基本面向好。与黄金 相比，白银估值相对较低，叠 ...

Market Overview - U.S. stock index futures are all down ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures down 0.58%, S&P 500 futures down 0.72%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.94% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 1.46%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.20%, France's CAC40 down 0.36%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.83% [2][3] Oil Prices - WTI crude oil increased by 2.72% to $65.75 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 1.60% to $69.24 per barrel [3][4] Economic Insights - Morgan Stanley predicts that the U.S. stock market will continue to rise due to strong corporate earnings and an anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5] - UBS warns of seasonal risks in September, historically the worst month for U.S. stocks, despite strong performance in August driven by EPS revisions [5] - UBS also forecasts that the Federal Reserve will initiate a series of rate cuts totaling 100 basis points starting in September due to stable inflation and a weakening labor market [6] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its Q3 U.S. GDP forecast to 1.6% due to a larger-than-expected trade deficit [6] Company News - Tesla has received only over 600 orders since launching in India, significantly below expectations, attributed to high tariffs and infrastructure challenges [9] - Starbucks reports a significant increase in sales due to the return of its seasonal pumpkin spice products, marking a turnaround in its sales performance [10] - Kraft Heinz announced plans to split into two publicly traded companies to boost growth, focusing on condiments and grocery products [10] - NIO reported a total revenue of 19.0087 billion yuan for Q2, a 9% year-over-year increase, with vehicle deliveries reaching a record high [11]

步入9月，市场翘首以盼的大件事-美联储议息即将来袭。此前，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克森霍尔央行研 讨会上的发言强化了市场对9月降息的预期，而是否真如预期般加息，市场又将迎来怎么样的冲击？黄 金行情蓄势待发，领峰贵金属（igoldtg.top/krHkvj）送上9月交易点差礼，更低门槛，享超值每手回赠高 达$26回赠福利！ 鲍威尔强化9月降息预期，金价强劲反弹 近日，联储主席鲍威尔在杰克森霍尔央行研讨会上的发言强化了市场对9月降息的预期，受鲍威尔讲话 的直接刺激，现货黄金价格一度强劲上涨1%。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的FedWatch工具显示，交易 员目前预计9月降息25个基点的可能性为85%，高于鲍威尔讲话前的75%。 高盛交易员认为，如果8月非农就业增长低于10万人，特别是在政治压力面前，将有助于确定9月降息。 图源：网络 此外，最新的通胀数据延续反弹，鲍威尔预计关税对通胀的影响将在未来几个月继续积累，同时表示影 响时间与程度的目前仍具有不确定性，不过认为这些影响大多为一次性的，这也是鲍威尔敢释放降息信 号的关键因素之一。所以目前通胀与就业之间的风险权重正在发生变化，美联储开始向就业风险方面倾 向，不过需要注 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.58%, S&P 500 futures down 0.72%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.94% [1] - European indices also declined, with Germany's DAX down 1.46%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.20%, France's CAC40 down 0.36%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.83% [2][3] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil increased by 2.72% to $65.75 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 1.60% to $69.24 per barrel [3][4] Economic Insights - Morgan Stanley predicts that the US stock market will continue to rise due to the combination of expected Fed rate cuts and strong corporate earnings, indicating a "beginning of the cycle" phase for the US economy [5] - UBS warns of seasonal risks in September, historically the worst month for US stocks, despite strong performance in August driven by EPS revisions [5] - Goldman Sachs has lowered its Q3 US GDP forecast to 1.6% due to a significant increase in the trade deficit, which expanded by $18.7 billion to $103.6 billion [6] Individual Company News - Tesla has received over 600 orders since its launch in India, which is below expectations, attributed to high tariffs and local market challenges [9] - Starbucks reported a significant increase in sales due to the return of its seasonal pumpkin spice products, marking a strong week for sales in the US and Canada [10] - Kraft Heinz announced plans to split into two publicly traded companies to boost growth, focusing on condiments and grocery products [10] - NIO reported Q2 revenue of 19.0087 billion yuan, a 9% year-over-year increase, with vehicle deliveries in August reaching a record high of 31,305 units, up 55.2% year-over-year [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, the market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September due to inflation and consumer sentiment. Despite supply disruptions, overall supply is sufficient, and demand may show a "not-so-peak season" pattern. The price is expected to consolidate at a high level [2][3][5] - For alumina, the price is expected to remain weak as supply stays high, and the surplus will gradually be reflected in social inventory [12][13] - For electrolytic aluminum, the price may be supported by the expected rate cut and the upcoming consumption season. Attention should be paid to inventory trends and overseas project progress [16][20] - For casting aluminum alloy, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The industry is affected by policy changes, and the supply is tightening [22][27][28] - For zinc, the price may be range-bound and bullish in the short term due to external support and the consumption season, despite the oversupply situation [33][35][36] - For lead, the price may rise slightly as smelter production cuts increase [40][41] - For nickel, the price may fluctuate strongly in the short term due to macro events and potential supply disruptions [44][45][46] - For stainless steel, the price is expected to follow the upward trend of nickel and show a strong oscillation [48][51][52] - For tin, the price may remain volatile as the demand peak season has not materialized [55][58][59] - For industrial silicon, the price may rebound in the short term due to supply - side reform expectations and increased demand from polysilicon [61][63][64] - For polysilicon, the price is expected to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high [67][68][69] - For lithium carbonate, the price may continue to decline in the short term and is waiting for a stabilization signal [70][73][74] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2510 closed at 79,660 yuan/ton, down 0.06%, and the open interest increased. The spot market was weak due to high prices [2] - **Important Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary, a call from the German economic minister, a production cut at a Chilean mine, and other news [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro data strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The supply decreased in August and September, but imports increased. Consumption showed a weakening trend [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Consolidate at a high level for single - side trading. Consider cross - market positive arbitrage and cross - month arbitrage. Wait and see for options [5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2510 rose 18 yuan to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price declined [7] - **Related Information**: Spot transactions, capacity operation, warehouse receipts, and production cuts due to environmental protection [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The spot market became more active, but the price is expected to fall. The overall supply is high, and warehouse receipts may increase [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2510 rose 50 yuan to 20,720 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price increased [16] - **Related Information**: PMI data, inventory changes, and overseas project progress [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The expected rate cut and inventory trends are the focus. Overseas projects are progressing as planned [20] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of casting aluminum alloy 2511 rose 25 yuan to 20,300 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot price was stable in most regions [22] - **Related Information**: Policy changes in the recycled aluminum industry, inventory changes, and import/export data [22][23][26] - **Trading Logic**: Policy changes affect the industry, and the supply is tightening. The price may be stable and slightly bullish [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate at a high level for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][28][29] Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2510 rose 0.59% to 22,325 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was average [31] - **Related Information**: Inventory increase and a production cut at a smelter [32] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc concentrate is sufficient, but the refined zinc output may decrease in September. Demand may improve in the consumption season [33][35] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and bullish in the short term for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36] Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.06% to 16,850 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot market had low procurement enthusiasm [38] - **Related Information**: Implementation of a new electric bicycle standard [39] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and smelter production cuts are increasing. Demand remains weak [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may rise slightly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42] Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell 240 to 122,530 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot premium decreased [44] - **Related Information**: Unrest in Indonesia, new RKAB quota regulations, and project awards [45] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro events may increase price volatility. Although the unrest has not affected production, there are potential risks [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate strongly for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [46][49] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of SS2510 rose 85 to 12,960 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price was stable [48] - **Important Information**: Rising nickel prices and global stainless - steel production data [51] - **Logic Analysis**: The price follows the upward trend of nickel. Inventory decreased slightly, and the consumption season may bring optimism [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Strong oscillation for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage [52][53] Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2510 rose 210 yuan/ton to 273,980 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased. The spot market was quiet [55] - **Related Information**: Statements from the US Treasury Secretary and a production cut at a smelter [56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's dovish stance continues. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and demand is in the off - season [58] - **Trading Strategy**: Volatile for single - side trading. Wait and see for options [59][60] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of industrial silicon rose 1.13% to 8,470 yuan/ton. The spot price was mostly stable [61] - **Related Information**: A silicon - field standardization workshop will be held during the silicon industry conference [62] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The demand from the silicone industry may weaken, while that from polysilicon may increase. Supply is becoming more abundant. The price may rebound [63] - **Strategy**: May rebound in the short term for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. No options strategy [64] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The futures price of polysilicon rose 3.97% to 51,875 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable [67] - **Related Information**: Domestic polysilicon prices increased [68] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Although production may increase in September, sales restrictions and potential production cuts may drive the price up [68] - **Strategy**: Hold long positions and take partial profits near the previous high for single - side trading. Reverse arbitrage for 11 and 12 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold call options [69] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of the 2511 contract fell 3,260 to 72,620 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price decreased [70] - **Important Information**: Porsche's business adjustment, a new battery factory, and a lithium sulfide project [71][72] - **Logic Analysis**: Battery and cathode production is expected to increase in September, but supply may be affected. The price may continue to decline [73] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for stabilization for single - side trading. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [74][75]

链接您与财富 次美联储降息周期中 会表现如何? 近期,在美联储降息预期的推动下,金价持续走高。展望后市,华尔街 投行们积极土调了黄金价格展望,多家机构认为明年站上4000美元 盎司不是梦。 今年以来COMEX黄金期货价格狂飙 3700 2025.9.1 3545.8 3500 3300 3100 2900 2700 2500 125-01-03 025-08-03 25-03-03 125-04-03 025-05-03 025-07-03 25-02-0 025-06-0 90年代以来,美联储降息周期中黄金资产表现 降息时段 降息幅度 BP 降息期间COMEX 黄金期货表现 13 2 | 1995.07.06-1996.01.31 | 75 | 5.94% | | --- | --- | --- | | 1998.09.29-1998.11.17 | 75 | -1.04% | | 2001.01.03-2003.06.25 | 550 | 29.48% | | 2007.09.18-2008.12.16 | 500 | 16.43% | | 2019.08.01-2020.03.16 | 225 | 6. ...

摘要 1、今天，A股三大指数震荡下跌，科技板块跌幅居前，创业板指跌近3%，发生了什么？ 2、A股牛市还在吗？9月该如何布局？机构看好5大板块！基金投资指南来了。 3、 牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1415 篇白话财经- - 今天，A股再遇调整，创业板指跌近3%，有超4000只个股下跌。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/9/2，不作投资推荐） 两市成交额2.87万亿元，盘面上，银行、贵金属等防御板块逆势上涨，通信、半导体、电子元件等科技板块跌幅居前。 分析人士指出，短期 或有颠簸，但牛市不改。当前市场成交活跃度较高，情绪较好，后续仍有"十五五"规划等中长期政策、制度改革的潜在利好， 震荡向上的格局有望延续。 A股突然下跌，原因何在？ 今天，A股出现调整，科技板块熄火，但两融余额创历史新高，市场情绪依然高涨，同时，机构观点认为短期调整不改牛市趋势。 1、A股下跌原因。 分析人士认为，A股出现跷跷板效应， 高股息资产表现活跃， 银行 、电力等板块上涨。而科技主线回调，算力产 ...

来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：博时基金） 一、美国宏观经济数据 美国7月PCE未超预期，但仍维持高位，服务价格上涨拉升核心通胀。美国7月PCE同比上涨2.6%，与预 期值和前值一致；美国7月PCE环比上涨0.2%，与预期持平，低于前值0.3%。美国7月核心PCE同比上涨 2.9%，与预期持平，高于前值2.8%；美国7月核心PCE环比上涨0.3%。与预期、前值一致。 美国7月耐用品订单继续减少，但核心耐用品订单强力反弹，二者差异源于飞机订单的波动。美国7月耐 用品订单环比下降2.8%，跌幅小于预期值-3.8%和前值-9.4%；美国7月扣除运输类耐用品订单环比上升 1.1%，高于预期值0.2%和前值0.3%；美国7月扣除飞机非国防资本耐用品订单环比上升1.1%，高于预期 值0.2%和前值-0.6%。 美国7月新屋需求较前月大幅回落。美国7月新屋销售环比减少0.6%，不及预期0.5%和前值4.1%；美国7 月新屋销售共65.2万户，好于预期63万户，不及前值65.6万户。 二、主要指数相关情况 1、 一周指数表现 上周（8月25日-29日），标普油气指数整周上涨3.37%，纳斯达克100指数整周下跌0.35%，标普5 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold continues its bullish momentum, reaching a new historical high above $3500, supported by Federal Reserve rate cut bets and geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have extended their upward trend for six consecutive days, surpassing $3500 [1] - The rebound of the US dollar from a one-month low has temporarily limited further gains in gold [1][3] - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for further trading guidance [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The market anticipates a potential increase in the ISM Manufacturing PMI from 48 in July to 49 in August, although it remains in contraction territory [3] - A disappointing ISM data release could lead to renewed selling pressure on the dollar, potentially supporting gold's record rise [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical developments between Russia and Ukraine continue to bolster gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Ukrainian President Zelensky's announcement of plans for deeper strikes into Russia after recent attacks on Russian energy assets has drawn attention [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold is targeting further increases, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) close to 71, not yet severely overbought [6] - The bullish crossover of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) with the 50-day SMA supports gold's strong performance [6] - The new record high of $3509 sets the stage for a challenge at the psychological level of $3550, while any pullback would first test the intraday low of $3475 [6]

除了降息预期，持续走弱的美元是另一个关键支撑因素。今年以来，黄金价格与美元指数（DXY）呈现出强烈的负相关关系。与此同时，投资者正大举重返黄 金市场， 黄金ETF在经历了连续四年的资金流出后，今年迄今已录得约440吨的净流入， 显示市场情绪已发生根本性转变。 摩根士丹利将2025年第四季度黄金目标价设定为 3800美元/盎司 ，截止发稿，现货黄金上涨0.5%至3496美元/盎司，这意味着金价还有约8%的上涨空间。 对于白银，该行给出的目标价为40.9美元/盎司，并指出其价格存在超预期上行的可能性。 降息风暴将至：历史数据揭示黄金上涨密码 一系列对贵金属极为有利的宏观催化剂正在汇集，形成一场"完美风暴"。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利分析师Amy Gower和Martijn Rats在9月1日的研究报告中指出， 美联储降息周期开启、美元持续走弱、交易所交易基金 （ETF）资金流入以及实物需求复苏等多重利好因素正在酝酿，为黄金和白银价格提供强劲支撑。 最直接的催化剂来自货币政策的转向。摩根士丹利预计，美联储将在9月16日至17日的会议上宣布降息25个基点，并在年底前再降息一次。历史经验表明，美 联储开启降息周期对 ...