2025 年 4 月金融数据点评 4 月金融数据：三个不寻常信号 2025 年 05 月 14 日 ➢ 事件：5 月 14 日，中国人民银行公布 4 月金融数据，新增社融 1.16 万亿 元、预期 1.26 万亿元，新增人民币贷款 2800 亿元、预期 7644 亿元，M1 同比 1.5%、前值 1.6%、预期 3.0%。 ➢ 4 月金融数据有三个不寻常信号值得关注：一是存量财政政策的落地加速， 既对二季度经济形成支撑，也降低了短期内出台增量政策的必要性。二是金融数 据结构上出现了"财政化"的趋势，这不仅体现在政府债对于社融的明显带动， 也体现在政府相关项目对于信贷投向的"主导"。三是股市上涨带动非银存款多 增，进而推升 M2。具体来看： ➢ 一是存量财政政策的落地加速。这既对二季度经济形成支撑，也降低了短期 内出台增量政策的必要性。 存量财政政策的加速一方面体现在特别国债发行的"快速启动"，今年两会确定 发行规模后，特别国债于 4 月底就开始发行，较去年节奏更快（去年 5 月中旬开 始）。相应地，今年以来国债发行规模更高、发行进度更快，是支撑政府债融资同 比多增的核心力量。 另一方面体现在支出端的"发力"。 ...

2025年4月金融统计数据报告 一、广义货币增长8% 4月末，广义货币(M2 )余额3 2 5 . 1 7万亿元，同比增长8%。狭义货币(M1 )余额1 0 9 . 1 4万亿元， 同 比 增 长 1 . 5% 。 流 通 中 货 币 (M0 ) 余 额 1 3 . 1 4 万 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 长 1 2% 。 前 四 个 月 净 投 放 现 金 3 1 9 3亿元。 二、前四个月人民币贷款增加1 0 . 0 6万亿元 4月末，本外币贷款余额2 6 9 . 5 4万亿元，同比增长6 . 8%。月末人民币贷款余额2 6 5 . 7万亿元， 同比增长7 . 2%。 前四个月人民币贷款增加1 0 . 0 6万亿元。分部门看，住户贷款增加5 1 8 4亿元，其中，短期贷款 减少2 4 1 6亿元，中长期贷款增加7 6 0 1亿元；企（事）业单位贷款增加9 . 2 7万亿元，其中，短 期贷款增加3 . 0 3万亿元，中长期贷款增加5 . 8 3万亿元，票据融资增加2 8 9 9亿元；非银行业金 融机构贷款增加7 6 8亿元。 4月末，外币贷款余额5 3 3 3亿美元，同比下降1 8 . 1%。前四个月外币贷款减 ...

Core Viewpoint - Several small and medium-sized banks in regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, and Shandong have announced reductions in deposit interest rates, leading to instances of "inverted" deposit rates where shorter-term rates exceed longer-term rates [1][7][10]. Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - Shanghai Songjiang Fuming Village Bank reduced its three-month deposit rate from 1.85% to 1.70% and its six-month rate from 1.90% to 1.75%, resulting in the six-month rate being higher than the three-month rate [3][6]. - Shandong Yinan Blue Ocean Village Bank adjusted its rates to 1.15% for three months, 1.45% for six months, 1.80% for one year, 1.90% for two years, 2.00% for three years, and 1.80% for five years, with the three-year rate exceeding the five-year rate by 20 basis points [7]. - Urumqi County Lifeng Village Bank set its two-year, three-year, and five-year rates at 2.35%, 2.25%, and 2.25% respectively, with the two-year rate exceeding the three-year and five-year rates by 10 basis points [7]. - Guangdong Qingxin Rural Commercial Bank's rates for three months, six months, one year, two years, three years, and five years are 0.80%, 1.00%, 1.10%, 1.20%, 1.53%, and 1.50% respectively, with the three-year rate exceeding the five-year rate by 3 basis points [7]. - Xinjiang Korla Fumin Village Bank reported a one-year rate of 2.00%, which is higher than the five-year rate of 1.95% [8]. Group 2: Market Trends and Implications - The traditional understanding that longer-term deposits yield higher interest rates is being challenged, as many banks are now offering higher rates for shorter-term deposits [10]. - Analysts suggest that banks are adjusting rates to optimize their deposit product structures and manage costs, with a focus on reducing long-term deposit rates to control the scale of long-term deposits and enhance liquidity [10][11]. - The phenomenon of inverted rates may persist in the short term, but analysts believe it is likely a temporary situation, with expectations that long-term rates will eventually return to more typical levels [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of monetary policy adjustments by Chinese financial authorities is expected to lead to a new round of deposit rate cuts by banks, particularly affecting small and medium-sized banks [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and a decrease in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 0.1 percentage points to 1.4% [1]. - The anticipated market-driven transmission of these rate changes is expected to lower the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 0.1 percentage points [1]. - The adjustments are part of a broader strategy to stabilize the market and manage expectations [1]. Group 2: Impact on Small and Medium-Sized Banks - Several small banks have already begun to lower their deposit rates, driven by the need to reduce funding costs amid narrowing interest margins [2][3]. - Historically, small banks offered higher deposit rates to attract customers, but competitive pressures have led to a decline in loan rates, resulting in asset shortages [3]. - Current deposit rates for major state-owned banks remain stable, with rates for various terms set at 1.35% to 1.90% [3]. Group 3: Long-Term Deposit Rate Adjustments - Long-term deposit rates have become the primary focus for reductions among small banks, with significant cuts observed [6][7]. - For instance, Guangdong Qingxin Rural Commercial Bank has set its long-term deposit rates as low as 1.50% for five years [4]. - The strategy for small banks includes both lowering long-term deposit rates and enhancing the collection of low-cost deposits through targeted marketing efforts [7][8]. Group 4: Wealth Management Trends - With declining deposit rates, residents are increasingly opting for early mortgage repayments and low-risk investment products such as insurance and bank wealth management products [9]. - The average yield of bank wealth management products has decreased from 2.94% to 2.65% year-on-year, prompting banks to diversify their investment strategies [10].

5月以来，地方性中小银行的存款利率调整动作仍在继续。近日，多地中小银行密集出手下调，部分机构三年及五年期的中长期限存款利率跌破 2%，各期限利率全面迈入"1时代"。 不过，在多数银行纷纷下调存款利率的同时，部分机构却选择逆势上调。新疆库尔勒富民村镇银行于5月12日下午公告称，自当日起存款利率上 调。记者对比该行此前公告发现，此番上调的是整存整取三个月期、六个月期、一年期、二年期的利率，上调幅度在25BP或30BP，三年期、五年 期利率保持1.95%不变。值得一提的是，此番调整后，该行一年期和两年期利率分别为2.0%、2.05%，均高于三年期、五年期，出现长短期"倒 挂"现象。 记者5月13日以储户身份致电该行客服热线，工作人员确认了二年及更短期限存款利率上调的事项，不过该行于13日午间删除了上述公告。 中小银行存款利率调整节奏不一 多地中小银行于近日对存款利率进行了调整，部分机构在调整后各期限利率全面迈入"1时代"。 每经记者｜李玉雯 每经编辑｜张益铭 "在市场利率普遍下行的趋势下，少数银行选择反其道而行之，对中短期存款利率进行上调，这种现象属于个例，不具有普遍性和主流性。"融360 数字科技研究院高级分析师 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a new round of "comprehensive financial policies" aims to alleviate financial pressure on the automotive industry and stimulate economic growth through enhanced liquidity and reduced financing costs [1][2]. Financial Policy Measures - The new policy includes ten measures, notably a significant reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for automotive finance companies and financial leasing companies from 5% to 0%, which is expected to ease funding pressures in the automotive sector [1][2]. - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for flexible monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity and support economic stability amid global financial market fluctuations [2]. Impact on Automotive Industry - The policy is seen as a much-needed relief for automotive manufacturers, supply chain companies, and dealers, helping to stabilize development across various segments of the industry [2][3]. - The reduction in RRR is anticipated to make financing easier for companies, accelerate cash flow, and lower consumer loan costs, thereby stimulating automotive consumption [2][3]. Financial Product Innovation - The easing of financial conditions is expected to lead to a broader range of financial products and lower interest rates, making financing options more attractive compared to full cash purchases [3][11]. - Automotive finance companies are likely to explore new business opportunities and innovate financial products and services due to increased available funds [2][11]. Market Dynamics - The automotive finance penetration rate in China has shown fluctuations, with a drop in 2023 followed by a projected increase in 2024, indicating the growing importance of financial tools in automotive consumption [8]. - The financial services provided by automotive finance companies are becoming increasingly vital for both consumers and dealers, as evidenced by the rising share of financial and insurance business income among dealers [8]. Structural Changes in the Market - The automotive market is undergoing structural changes, with a significant rise in new energy vehicle sales, while traditional automotive finance companies face challenges due to competition from commercial banks [10][12]. - The current financial environment aims to improve the asset-liability structure of automotive finance companies, which have been experiencing declining profits and increasing non-performing loan rates [10][12]. Future Outlook - The policy reflects a commitment from regulatory authorities to support the automotive industry and enhance consumer demand through improved financing options [12]. - The effectiveness of the policy will depend on how automotive finance companies and financial leasing firms implement their strategies to benefit consumers and expand their business [11][12].

【导读】多地中小银行密集"降息"，存款利率步入"1时代" 5月9日，聊城沪农商村镇银行发布公告表示，该行于5月10日起，对人民币存款挂牌利率进行调整。调整前，该行2年期、3年期、5年期存款利率 分别执行2.1%、2.16%、2.16%；调整后，该行对应期限的利率分别执行1.89%、1.98%、1.98%。 在本轮调整中，聊城沪农商村镇银行对三个月及半年期的存款利率并未调整，调整类别主要集中在中长期存款产品，存款利率下调幅度为5BP至 21BP区间。 中国基金报记者马嘉昕 近日，多地中小银行开启新一轮存款利率下调行动。记者注意到，哈密市商业银行、聊城沪农商村镇银行等多地中小银行，以及多家民营银行均 表示，对存款利率进行下调。 整体来看，部分中长期存款利率已跌破2%，步入"1时代"。业界认为，本轮中小银行密集下调存款利率属于此前一轮全国性商业银行存款"降 息"后的跟进下调。 同时，随着央行近期宣布下调政策利率0.1个百分点，新一轮全国性银行集体"降息"或将到来。 多家中小银行密集"降息" | 存款项目 | 年利率% | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 调整前 | 调整后 | | 一、城乡居民及 ...

2025 年第一季度货币政策报告中，最关键的内容包括两大部分：一是对国内 外经济形势的理解，二是下一阶段货币政策的主要思路。对于国内外经济形势， 央行认为国际经济环境更趋复杂严峻，增长动能不足，贸易保护主义兴起。而 国内经济则表现为回升向好，但仍需巩固。基于此判断，央行可能会采取更趋 宽松的态度。 在下一阶段货币政策思路方面，本次报告首次提出支持实体经济 与保持银行体系自身稳健性的关系。这意味着在降低贷款利率以刺激经济的同 时，还需保持银行净息差，以确保银行体系健康发展。由于当前国有行和股份 制银行净息差普遍跌破监管合意点 1.7%，预计很快将看到存款利率下调动作。 这一调整将是自 2022 年 4 月以来第六次大行调整存款利率。 Q1 货政报告的 5 个关键增量信息 20250512 摘要 • 央行可能采取更宽松的货币政策，以应对复杂的国际经济环境和国内经济 回升但仍需巩固的局面。 • 央行强调支持实体经济与银行体系稳健性的平衡，预计将下调存款利率以 保持银行净息差，这将是自 2022 年 4 月以来的第六次调整。 • 存款利率市场化调整机制通过将银行存款利率与 10 年期国债收益率及 1 年期 LPR 挂 ...

2025.05. 12 本文字数：2289，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 王方然 在福建工作的黄女士（化名）习惯每月将部分收入存进定期存款中。5月初，她发现原本一些主打高 息的中小银行也在加速降息。 她告诉记者，自己常用的这家民营银行，去年5月份三年期、五年期存款利率分别为3.3%、3.8%。 而今年4月初，她收到客户经理通知，三年期、五年期存款利率将降为2.8%、2.9%。最近她去询问 时，利率再降至2.45%、2.5%。 这并非个例。近期中小银行正加速"补降"。据第一财经不完全统计，4月起已有哈密市商业银行、聊 城沪农商村镇银行、海伦惠丰村镇银行、福建华通银行等超30家中小银行"补降"存款利率，下调幅度 在10BP至100BP不等。有银行甚至在1个月内三次下调中长期限存款利率。 有业内分析人士认为，随着央行明确释放引导信号，叠加银行息差压力，市场预期二三季度或将迎来 大行领衔的新一轮全面降息。 "补降"节奏明显加快 5月9日，聊城沪农商村镇银行宣布调整人民币存款挂牌利率，定存利率全线低于2%。其中，一年期 定期存款利率下调15BP至1.8%，两年期定期存款利率下调21BP至1.89%，三年期、五 ...

超30家中小银行补降存款利率。 在福建工作的黄女士（化名）习惯每月将部分收入存进定期存款中。5月初，她发现原本一些主打高息的中小银行也在加速降息。 她告诉记者，自己常用的这家民营银行，去年5月份三年期、五年期存款利率分别为3.3%、3.8%。而今年4月初，她收到客户经理通知，三年期、五年期存 款利率将降为2.8%、2.9%。最近她去询问时，利率再降至2.45%、2.5%。 这并非个例。近期中小银行正加速"补降"。据第一财经不完全统计，4月起已有哈密市商业银行、聊城沪农商村镇银行、海伦惠丰村镇银行、福建华通银行 等超30家中小银行"补降"存款利率，下调幅度在10BP至100BP不等。有银行甚至在1个月内三次下调中长期限存款利率。 有业内分析人士认为，随着央行明确释放引导信号，叠加银行息差压力，市场预期二三季度或将迎来大行领衔的新一轮全面降息。 "补降"节奏明显加快 5月9日，聊城沪农商村镇银行宣布调整人民币存款挂牌利率，定存利率全线低于2%。其中，一年期定期存款利率下调15BP至1.8%，两年期定期存款利率下 调21BP至1.89%，三年期、五年期定期存款利率下调18BP至1.98%。 | 存款项目 | 年利率 ...