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美联储6月降息预期升温:外资回流A股,哪些方向值得布局?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-21 09:13
最近全球资本市场的"风向标"突然变了!欧洲央行暗示年内降息,美联储通胀数据缓和,市场对6月暂停加息、 下半年降息的预期迅速升温。 这一变化直接带动了外资加速回流A股,哪些方向值得布局? 欧洲央行"松口",释放降息信号 5月22日,欧洲央行行长拉加德在讲话中明确表示:"通胀已进入下降阶段",市场将其解读为6月可能开启降息的 信号。 受此影响,欧元区债券收益率全线下跌,德国10年期国债收益率一度跌破2.4%,为近8个月来最低水平。 美联储通胀降温,但"鹰鸽博弈"持续 美国4月CPI同比上涨4.9%(前值5%),核心CPI录得5.5%,虽连续10个月回落,但仍高于美联储2%的目标。 资料来源:WIND、美国劳工部、长城证券产业金融研究院; 不过,市场更关注的是"薪资增速放缓"和"商品通胀降温"信号。芝商所数据显示:市场预计美联储6月维持利率 不变的概率升至80%,9月降息概率超过50%。 国际投资环境的变化直接带动了外资加速回流A股—— 北向资金"买买买",单周净流入超300亿 截至5月20日当周,北向资金连续8天净买入,单周净流入达320亿元,创下年内新高。从持仓方向看,外资正从 传统的金融、能源板块转向科技与消 ...
从中信集团上市公司矩阵看国际化布局中的协同效应与未来增长极
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-21 07:36
Group 1 - CITIC Group is a large comprehensive enterprise group founded in 1979, headquartered in Beijing, and is one of the first multinational enterprises established after China's reform and opening up [1] - The group operates under a unique "finance + industry" dual-drive model, covering sectors such as finance, resource energy, high-end manufacturing, and engineering contracting [1] - CITIC Group has a significant presence in both domestic and international markets, consistently ranking in the Fortune Global 500 [1] Group 2 - CITIC Bank, established in 1987, is one of the earliest emerging commercial banks in China, providing a wide range of financial services [3] - CITIC Securities, founded in 1995, is the largest securities company in China, leading in investment banking market share for five consecutive years [5] - CITIC Special Steel, established in 1993, is a global leader in special steel manufacturing, with products used in high-end applications [7] Group 3 - CITIC Heavy Industries, founded in 2008, specializes in heavy machinery manufacturing and has a global presence in 68 countries [10][11] - CITIC Offshore Helicopter, established in 1999, is the largest general aviation operator in China, focusing on offshore oil and emergency rescue services [13] - CITIC Guoan Information Industry, founded in 1997, holds a significant position in the integrated information services sector [15] Group 4 - CITIC Metal, established in 1988, is a leading trader of metal and mineral products, with a focus on iron ore and non-ferrous metals [17] - CITIC Publishing Group, founded in 1993, is a leading publishing group in China, focusing on book publishing and digital reading [18] - CITIC Resources Holdings, established in 1997, engages in the exploration and trading of natural resources [20] Group 5 - CITIC International Financial Holdings serves as the main asset integration platform for CITIC Group, covering various sectors including finance and manufacturing [22] - CITIC International Telecommunications is one of the largest international telecommunications hubs in the Asia-Pacific region [24] - CITIC Financial Asset Management, restructured in 2023, focuses on managing non-performing assets and financial services [26] Group 6 - CITIC Group's listed companies benefit from a "strategic control + market-oriented operation" model, enjoying resource synergy while maintaining competitiveness in niche markets [26] - Many of the group's listed companies are currently undervalued compared to their industry positions, presenting potential investment opportunities [26] - The ongoing national policy for state-owned enterprise value reassessment and the effective layout of emerging industries may lead to structural opportunities for CITIC Group companies [26]
广西发改委澄清“136号文”实施细则:尚无正式版本上报审批
news flash· 2025-05-21 03:48
今年2月,国家发展改革委、国家能源局发布的《关于深化新能源上网电价市场化改革促进新能源高质 量发展的通知》(即"136号文")明确,坚持市场化改革方向,推动新能源上网电量全面进入电力市场、 通过市场交易形成价格。部分企业新能源参与电力市场交易后,在市场外建立差价结算的机制,纳入机 制的新能源电价水平、电量规模、执行期限等,由省级价格主管部门会同省级能源主管部门、电力运行 主管部门等明确。(第一财经) 近日网络流传的《广西壮族自治区新能源可持续发展价格结算机制实施细则》、《广西壮族自治区深化 新能源上网电价市场化改革实施方案》等文件引发行业广泛关注。5月21日,记者从广西壮族自治区发 展改革委价格和收费管理处获悉,目前相关处室正在梳理制定"136号文"实施细则的工作思路,努力做 好新旧政策衔接;尚无正式文件版本上报审批,距离公开征求意见还有一段时间。相关部门提醒广大从 业人士不要轻信未经证实的政府文件。 ...
10万存3年利息少750元!新一轮存款利率下调落地,1年定存利率首次跌破1%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-21 00:53
Core Viewpoint - Major Chinese banks have collectively lowered their RMB deposit rates, marking a significant shift as the one-year fixed deposit rate has fallen below 1% for the first time, indicating a transition into a "1 era" for deposit rates [1][5][9]. Summary by Category Deposit Rate Adjustments - On May 20, major banks including ICBC, ABC, BOC, CCB, and others reduced their demand deposit rates by 0.05 percentage points to 0.05%, with fixed deposit rates seeing a maximum decrease of 25 basis points [1][5]. - The one-year fixed deposit rate has dropped to 0.95%, while three-year and five-year fixed deposit rates are now at 1.25% and 1.30%, respectively [5][6]. - Postal Savings Bank has slightly higher rates compared to the major banks, with one-year and six-month fixed deposit rates at 0.98% and 0.86% [6]. Loan Market Rate Changes - The new Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has also been adjusted, with the one-year LPR decreasing to 3% and the five-year LPR to 3.5%, marking the first decline of the year [1][9]. - This simultaneous adjustment of LPR and deposit rates is expected to help stabilize banks' net interest margins [8][12]. Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that the reduction in deposit rates will lead to a decrease in interest income for depositors, with an example showing a drop in interest from 4500 yuan to 3750 yuan for a three-year deposit of 100,000 yuan [7][12]. - The overall trend indicates that banks are likely to continue adjusting their rates in response to market conditions, with expectations of further reductions in deposit rates across various banks [14][15]. Economic Implications - The adjustments are seen as a response to the need for banks to lower their funding costs and support the real economy, while also maintaining operational stability [11][12]. - The decline in deposit rates is anticipated to push more investors towards alternative investment products, such as money market funds and bonds, as traditional savings yield lower returns [15][16].
金融市场罕见双降!存贷款利率同日下调,银行负债端松绑,企业居民迎减负
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-20 23:58
这一举措主要是为银行负债端"松绑"。金融监管总局数据显示,今年一季度商业银行净息差已降至 1.43%,明显低于监管合意水平1.8%。银行业正面临息差持续收窄的压力。在贷款利率下行的背景下, 适度下调存款利率有助于银行维持合理的息差水平,保持经营稳健性。 除房贷外,消费贷款成本也随之下降,这将进一步激发居民消费潜力。央行近期发布的《2025年第一季 度中国货币政策执行报告》明确提出要"持续完善金融服务支持提振和扩大消费",构建与消费需求相匹 配的金融产品和服务体系,扩大消费领域高质量金融供给。 存款利率下调为银行负债端"松绑" 与贷款利率同步下调的还有存款利率。国有大行和头部股份行牵头开启2022年9月以来第七轮存款挂牌 利率下调。活期存款利率下调5个基点,定期整存整取三个月期至二年期均下调15个基点,三年期和五 年期下调幅度更大,达25个基点。值得注意的是,此次存款利率下调幅度大于同期限LPR降幅。 5月20日,我国金融市场迎来存贷款利率罕见同日双降。贷款市场报价利率(LPR)1年期和5年期以上 分别下调至3%和3.5%,均降低10个基点。同日,国有大行和头部股份行牵头下调存款挂牌利率,其中 活期存款利率下调 ...
贵州贵安新区做强做优数字经济
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-05-20 22:02
我们平时上网的时候,都会碰到这样的场景:需要输入身份证号或者录入人脸进行实名认证。通常在几 秒内,页面就会反馈是否认证成功。而互联网服务提供商大多是商业机构,为何能认证个人数据? "事实上,服务商并不能够直接认证个人数据,而是需要像我们这样的'中间人',确保数据安全。"贵州 数据宝网络科技有限公司合伙人杨光应介绍,"以人脸识别为例,用户上传信息以后,会在我们的后台 自动生成代码并进行加密传输,与数据持有方的人脸代码进行比对,能迅速反馈是否一致。通常响应时 间在500毫秒以内,没有人为介入,人脸或身份数据不会以原始的样态进行传输。" 上述案例只是数据宝公司业务内容之一,这家致力于为国有数据资源方提供数据要素全生命周期管理服 务的企业,于2016年落户贵州贵安新区。当时,贵安新区数据产业处在萌芽阶段,数据应用生态尚未成 形。"我们看中的是贵安新区地处首个国家级大数据综合试验区的战略机遇。"杨光应介绍,经过近9年 的发展,公司已经成为国有数据资产增值运营服务商、数据要素市场化领军企业。 去年8月,数据宝公司负责的贵州首单旅游景区数据资产入表项目在兴义市万峰林景区启动。"通过对景 区数据资源进行盘点与梳理,经过合规确 ...
国家发展改革委将制定鼓励外企境内再投资政策
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-05-20 21:10
修订扩大鼓励外商投资产业目录 为更大力度吸引和利用外资,继续为跨国公司在华投资发展创造良好条件,李超表示,国家发展改革委 将修订扩大《鼓励外商投资产业目录》。 5月20日,国家发展改革委新闻发言人李超在新闻发布会上表示,国家发展改革委将修订扩大《鼓励外 商投资产业目录》,制定鼓励外资企业境内再投资政策;加快推动民营经济促进法配套政策措施落地见 效;分类有序拓展低空经济应用场景,稳妥推进低空旅游、航空运动、消费级无人机等低空消费发展。 针对"内卷式"竞争问题的症结,李超表示,国家发展改革委将会同有关方面因业施策、对症下药,标本 兼治化解重点产业结构性矛盾,促进产业健康发展和提质升级。 "将坚持创新引领,加快产业转型升级,支持企业通过科技创新提高产品质量和核心竞争力;加强地方 约束,加力破除地方保护和市场分割;优化产业布局,遏制落后产能无序扩张,以市场化方式促进兼并 重组;强化市场监管,净化市场竞争生态。"李超说。 稳妥推进低空消费发展 "近年来,各有关部门和地方结合发展实际,积极探索发展包括低空旅游在内的低空经济场景业态。"李 超表示,国家发展改革委将会同有关部门,按照先载货后载人、先隔离后融合、先远郊后城区的 ...
持续推动社会综合融资成本下降 罕见!存贷款利率同日下调
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-05-20 19:22
Core Viewpoint - The recent simultaneous decrease in both loan and deposit interest rates by major banks is expected to enhance financial support for the real economy, stimulate credit demand, and promote investment and consumption, thereby consolidating the economic recovery trend [2][3][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - On May 20, both the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) were reduced by 10 basis points, bringing them to 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2]. - Deposit rates were also lowered, with the interest rate for demand deposits decreasing by 5 basis points and fixed-term deposit rates dropping by 15 to 25 basis points [2]. Group 2: Impact on Real Economy - The reduction in LPR is anticipated to alleviate the financial burden on mortgage borrowers, thereby supporting the stability of the real estate market and enhancing consumer spending capacity [3]. - Lower deposit rates are expected to protect banks' net interest margins, maintain their operational stability, and enhance their ability to serve the real economy sustainably [3][4]. Group 3: Financial Market Implications - The decline in deposit rates is likely to positively influence financial asset prices and residents' asset allocation, promoting asset price increases and benefiting the stock and real estate markets [4]. - The simultaneous decrease in LPR and deposit rates indicates an increased linkage between loan and deposit rates, reflecting a higher degree of interest rate marketization and improved pricing capabilities of commercial banks [4].
多家银行年内首次下调存款利率 部分一年期定存利率跌破“1%大关”
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Zhi Sheng· 2025-05-20 16:09
Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in deposit rates by major banks in China is a response to macroeconomic pressures and aims to lower the banks' funding costs, thereby supporting the economy and enhancing financial stability [1][3]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Six major state-owned banks and some national joint-stock banks have lowered their deposit rates, with the maximum reduction reaching 25 basis points [1][2]. - After the adjustments, the interest rates for various deposit products are as follows: - Demand deposit rate is now 0.05% - 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year fixed deposit rates are 0.65%, 0.85%, 0.95%, and 1.05% respectively - 3-year and 5-year fixed deposit rates are 1.25% and 1.3% respectively [2]. Group 2: Impact on Banking Sector - The coordinated reduction in deposit rates and LPR (Loan Prime Rate) is seen as a significant measure to support the real economy and alleviate the pressure on banks' net interest margins [4]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks has narrowed to 1.43% in Q1, down 9 basis points from the previous quarter, indicating ongoing challenges for banks [4]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations for Banks - Banks are encouraged to optimize their deposit product structures and dynamically adjust the scale of different types of deposits to reduce high-cost deposits [5][6]. - There is a call for banks to enhance their market analysis capabilities and implement differentiated pricing strategies for various customer segments and deposit terms [6]. - Emphasizing regional operations and adapting to local market characteristics can help banks develop flexible deposit pricing strategies [6].
LPR如期下调 部分银行同步调降存款利率
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-05-20 12:44
Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and deposit rates of large commercial banks have both decreased, leading to a reduction in the overall financing costs in society and improving banks' liability costs [1][2] - The 1-year and 5-year LPRs have both dropped by 0.1 percentage points, now standing at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, which is expected to stimulate effective financing demand and stabilize credit levels [1][2] - The reduction in deposit rates by state-owned and some joint-stock banks is aimed at lowering banks' liability costs, creating room for the LPR to decrease [1][3] Group 2 - The LPR serves as a primary reference for loan pricing, with the average interest rate for new corporate loans at approximately 3.2%, down about 50 basis points year-on-year, and for personal housing loans at about 3.1%, down about 55 basis points year-on-year [2] - The decrease in the 5-year LPR is beneficial for mortgage borrowers, reducing their interest burden and promoting consumption, with a calculated monthly payment reduction of approximately 54.88 yuan for a 1 million yuan mortgage over 30 years [2] - The recent decline in deposit rates marks the seventh round of such reductions since September 2022, reflecting banks' responses to market interest rate trends and deposit supply-demand dynamics [2][3] Group 3 - The banking sector has experienced a rapid decline in net interest margins, now at historical lows, prompting banks to adjust deposit rates to maintain a reasonable net interest margin [3] - The recent adjustments in deposit rates, along with a new round of reserve requirement ratio cuts, provide banks with the opportunity to alleviate net interest margin pressures and lower LPR pricing [3] - The interest rate transmission mechanism in China has gradually improved, forming a more complete interest rate system that influences consumption and investment, thereby enhancing overall social demand [3]