2月11日，消息面：周三亚洲时段回升至5，050美元上方，部分回吐前日跌幅。美元因美联储潜在降息 预期走弱，为黄金提供支撑。市场关注即将公布的美国1月非农就业报告，以判断美联储政策方向。日 线技术显示黄金短线震荡偏强，等待压力测试。美国12月零售销售数据疲软，零售总额持平于7350亿美 元，同比增幅2.4%，低于前值3.3%及市场预期0.4%的增幅。零售销售疲软加上劳动力市场显现弱势， 推动市场对美联储年内进一步降息的押注，美元走软，从而支撑黄金反弹。 市场多头在当前价位表现谨慎，多数交易员倾向等待非农就业数据和CPI报告提供的进一步方向指引。 地缘政治局势缓和也限制了避险资金涌入黄金，但美元弱势背景和市场对货币政策宽松的预期仍支撑价 格震荡偏强。 技术面：从日线图来看，XAU/USD近期在5，050美元上方震荡回升，显示短线多头试图重拾主动。日 线均线系统显示，价格保持在关键200日均线之上，短期5日与10日均线向上，呈支撑状态，强化了整体 偏多格局。 K线呈现小阳线与十字线交替的整理形态，显示多空市场暂时均衡，但下方支撑承接仍较强。 MACD指标显示，MACD线在信号线之上，双线位于零轴上方，红色动能柱收 ...

美国劳工统计局（BLS）将于今晚发布延迟的1月非农报告，同时进行年度基准修正和方法论更新。市场预计此次修正将抹去约100万个就业岗位，这是美国就 业统计史上规模最大的下修之一。 据彭博经济学家Anna Wong估算，在未经季节性调整的基础上，就业人数将减少302.5万。但由于BLS将重新估算季节性调整因子以反映基准修正和Birth- Death模型更新，这种不确定性可能使就业数据在任一方向上波动4万。 此外，由于政府关闭造成的中断，BLS已将通常在1月就业报告中发布的年度人口控制调整推迟至下月的2月报告。Wong预计该调整将使人口水平至少减少70 万，这意味着下月将出现进一步的负向修正。 根据BLS初步估计， 2024年4月至2025年3月期间的就业增长将下修75万至90万个岗位。此外，BLS还将更新2025年4月至12月期间的企业出生-死亡预测数 据，预计将再减少50万至70万个岗位。这意味着截至2025年12月的非农就业数据中，多达100万个就业岗位实际上从未存在。 周三，据ZeroHedge及相关分析指出，此次修正将显著改变美国劳动力市场的实际状况。修正后的数据将显示，劳动力市场早在2024年中期就已跌 ...

期货公司观点 广发期货： 当前数据显示美国就业和通胀持续放缓但部分领域在美联储降息提振下有所改善，尽管美联储未来在衡 量就业的通胀目标问题上仍有分歧短期趋于谨慎，但贸易摩擦和地缘风险的担忧驱动资金提前配置使金 价中长期上涨空间，在全球主流机构持续上调贵金属价格预测的情况下，部分机构投资者选择提前"抢 跑"配置贵金属，对价格形成支撑。市场或将更多受到美国经济数据对美联储政策预期影响和地缘局势 扰动，综合来看短期消息面影响减弱行情维持偏强震荡但波动回落，黄金在 20 日均线上方多单继续持 有，可卖出虚值看跌期权可赚取时间价值。 最近美元一跌，黄金就跟着往上冲，这波涨势还没到头，逻辑特别简单、接地气。 黄金是用美元计价的，美元越不值钱，买同样的黄金要花的美元就越多，金价自然就涨了。就像你去国 外买东西，人民币升值了，你花同样的钱能买更多东西；反过来，美元贬值，全球买家买黄金的成本变 低，买的人一多，价格就被推上去。 现在美元本身就处在弱势区间，而且美联储降息的预期一直没断。降息意味着美元的吸引力会下降，资 金会从美元资产里跑出来，找更保值的去处，黄金就是首选。再加上全球央行还在不停买黄金，给金价 托着底。 就算中间 ...

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - The US dollar index is experiencing fluctuations ahead of the non-farm payroll data release, with market participants cautiously awaiting the January employment figures [1] - Weak retail sales data has strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with the market now pricing in a slight increase in the probability of three rate cuts this year [2] - The US labor market is expected to show continued weakness, which, along with easing inflation pressures, may encourage the Fed to implement two more rate cuts this year [2] Group 2: Currency Movements - The Japanese yen strengthened in early trading, driven by concerns over potential intervention in the currency market by Japanese authorities [2] - The Australian dollar's attractiveness as a high-yield currency has been reinforced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish shift, which may accelerate domestic investors' demand for carry trades [3] Group 3: Regional Economic Outlook - The New Zealand central bank is likely to maintain its cash rate at 2.25% in the upcoming policy meeting, acknowledging an improving economic outlook [3] - Indonesia's short-term economic prospects may weaken due to Moody's downgrade of the country's credit rating outlook from "stable" to "negative," which could lead to increased volatility in the Indonesian rupiah and affect foreign investment [4]

杰富瑞全球经济学家莫希特·库马尔在报告中指出，随着关税影响消退以及特朗普政府聚焦民生，下半 年美国通胀存在下行风险。他同时预测美国经济将出现"温和放缓"。库马尔表示，若上述预期兑现，美 联储可能实施三次降息而非两次。伦敦证券交易所集团数据显示，目前美国货币市场已定价今年约60基 点的降息幅度。 来源：环球市场播报 ...

Group 1 - Jefferies continues to expect the Federal Reserve to implement two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year [1] - The firm believes that factors such as the fading impact of tariffs and the Trump administration's focus on affordability will drive down U.S. inflation, presenting downside risks in the second half of the year [1] - Jefferies also anticipates that economic growth will "moderately weaken," which could lead to the possibility of three rate cuts instead of two [1] Group 2 - Data from the London Stock Exchange Group indicates that the U.S. money market currently reflects expectations of approximately 60 basis points in rate cuts this year [1]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economic data shows weakness, increasing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which has driven Asian stock markets to historical highs [1][2] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rose by 1% to a record high, further extending its lead over U.S. and European markets this year [1] - U.S. retail sales data for December unexpectedly stagnated, indicating reduced consumer support for the economy, reinforcing the likelihood of rate cuts later this year [1][2] Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar weakened against all G10 currencies, with the dollar index declining for the fourth consecutive day by 0.2% [1][6] - Asian markets are experiencing a strong performance, with major indices showing significant gains, such as the Australian S&P/ASX 200 rising by 1.7% [4][3] - Gold prices have stabilized above $5,000 per ounce, rising by 0.4% due to the weak retail sales data supporting the case for rate cuts [1][9] Employment Data Focus - The upcoming U.S. employment report is seen as critical, with economists expecting 65,000 new jobs in January, which would be the best performance in four months [1][2] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain at 4.4%, and the employment data will include annual revisions expected to show a downward adjustment in employment numbers through March 2025 [1][2] Commodity and Currency Movements - Gold prices have seen a recent increase, with spot gold rising to $5,044.53 per ounce, supported by declining U.S. Treasury yields [9][12] - Oil prices have also risen, with Brent crude increasing by 0.8% to $69.36 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [13] - Bitcoin has seen a slight decline of 1.6%, trading at $67,531.27, despite increased accumulation by large holders [16]

美国劳工统计局（BLS）将在北京时间周三21:30公布因短暂政府停摆而推迟的1月非农就业报告，该报 告还将进行年度基准修正和方法论更新。 市场的预期中值显示：1月非农新增就业岗位为7万人，而去年12月新增5万人；失业率预计维持在4.4% 的低位；平均时薪环比增速持平在0.3%，同比增速则预计从前一个月的3.8%下滑至3.6%。 不过，多位华尔街经济学家认为数据将低于预期。例如，道明证券预计1月份的就业增长将保持低迷， 预计仅增加4.5万，与高盛的预期一样；另一方面，花旗预测新增13.5万人，但该机构表示，这一数值源 于季节性扭曲，"经合理调整后，就业增长接近零"。 "我认为预期值应该是零，"穆迪分析首席经济学家马克・赞迪（Mark Zandi）表示，"市场共识可能在5 万人左右。任何接近零的数据都能说明就业市场何等脆弱、极度疲软。目前尚未出现裁员潮，但裁员人 数很快会增加，我认为我们不久后就可能看到就业负增长。" 经济学家的低预期与近几周一系列非官方、私营部门的指标相呼应。上周的数据显示，就业形势低迷， 裁员人数上升，新发布的职位数量几乎没有变化。 非农年度基准修正：势将抹去过往增长 更棘手的是非农数据的修正 ...

Group 1 - U.S. retail sales unexpectedly stagnated in December, indicating weak consumer spending at the end of the year, leading to increased bets on interest rate cuts for this year [4] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing down, which has weakened the dollar against major currencies and provided more room for the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts [2][4] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is anticipated to provide further insights into the labor market and potential economic direction [4] Group 2 - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly, marking a new closing high for the third consecutive trading day [2] - U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields reported at 3.4520%, 3.7012%, and 4.1427% respectively, reflecting a downward trend [3] - Gold prices dropped over 1% as the market consolidated ahead of the U.S. employment and inflation data releases [2] Group 3 - Alphabet (GOOGL.US) raised nearly $32 billion in debt within 24 hours, with a 100-year pound bond receiving nearly ten times the oversubscription [5] - Barclays (BCS.US) reported better-than-expected earnings for 2025 and plans to return at least £15 billion to shareholders by the end of 2028, with an expanded bonus pool benefiting all employees [6] - Wealth management firms, including Charles Schwab, experienced significant declines due to concerns over a new AI tool developed by Altruist for tax strategy formulation [6] Group 4 - China's January CPI is expected to slow to a 0.4% year-on-year increase, while PPI is projected to narrow its decline to 1.5%, driven by rising material prices [7] - The People's Bank of China committed to maintaining a "moderately loose" monetary policy and will regularly conduct government bond trading operations [8] - Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the need for enhanced collaboration in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, focusing on deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The current market for tin futures is influenced by macroeconomic factors, policy changes, and industry dynamics, with a focus on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and its impact on interest rate expectations [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Overnight, London tin prices fell by 1.17%, closing at $49,230, a decrease of $585, with a trading volume of 460 contracts and an open interest increase of 5 contracts [1]. - In contrast, the domestic Shanghai tin futures market saw a significant rise, with the main contract closing at 386,250 CNY/ton, up 4,050 CNY, reflecting a 1.06% increase [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is experiencing a contraction due to domestic smelters entering maintenance ahead of the Spring Festival, leading to tight circulation of refined tin and high premiums, while overseas supply remains stable [2]. - Demand from downstream sectors such as electronics and photovoltaics is tapering off as pre-holiday stockpiling concludes, resulting in limited overall support for prices, although some replenishment is still occurring [2]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Sentiment - Global tin inventories are at low levels, maintaining a tight supply situation that supports prices [2]. - The market sentiment is characterized by a "weak external, strong internal" dynamic, with short-term price expectations fluctuating between 387,000 and 392,000 CNY/ton, indicating a potential for continued upward movement in the overall metal market [3]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - The company suggests adopting a cautious and defensive strategy with light positions, focusing on tin, nickel, and silver, which are in a tight supply-demand balance, while also considering longer-term investments in gold and copper due to expected liquidity easing and industrial upgrades [3].