市场后续将聚焦美国1月消费者价格指数数据，进一步判断通胀走势与美联储政策调整方向。 欧洲主要股市出现下跌，避险情绪持续笼罩市场。 花旗集团利率交易部门指出，市场对美国通胀前景过于乐观，押注价格压力上升的交易具备吸引力。本 杰明·威尔特希尔表示，"市场似乎坚信通胀会回落，但我们仍处于一个结构性更高的通胀环境。" 当前 美联储偏好的核心通胀指标仍维持在略低于3%的水平，叠加此前公布的强劲美国就业数据，推动市场 下调对美联储今年降息的预期。威尔特希尔同时提到，市场缺乏重新计入通胀溢价的动力，通胀风险被 低估。 贝莱德、桥水基金和太平洋投资管理公司等机构正针对新一轮通胀调整布局。贝莱德旗下一只基金建立 美、英国债空头头寸，以防预期中的降息未能实现；桥水更倾向配置股票而非债券；太平洋投资管理公 司则看好提供通胀调整收益的美国国债所提供的缓冲。 2026年法兰克福数字金融大会11日在德国举行，多名与会人士呼吁欧洲资本市场减少对美国金融体系的 过度依赖。德意志交易所集团执行董事会成员托马斯·布克表示，当前全球挑战复杂多变，欧洲资本市 场减少对美依赖关乎欧洲真正的战略自主权。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据 ...

2026年2月12日，亚洲市场刚刚开盘，国际贵金属市场就上演了一幕惊心动魄的直线跳水。 现货黄金价格从接近5100美元/盎司的高位急速下挫，现货白 银的跌幅一度超过1%。 就在几个小时前，隔夜美股市场也经历了一场盘中跳水，三大指数最终小幅收跌。 这一切市场异动的源头，都指向了一份在2 月11日晚间公布的、远超所有人预期的美国就业报告。 这份由美国劳工统计局发布的报告显示，2026年1月，美国季调后非农就业人口增加了13万人。 这个数字不仅远远超过了市场普遍预期的6.5万至7万 人，更是创下了自2025年4月以来的最大单月增幅。 与此同时，1月份的失业率从去年12月的4.4%下降到了4.3%，创下2025年8月以来的新低。 平均时薪 环比增长了0.4%，同比增长3.7%，也高于市场预期。 数据公布的瞬间，金融市场立刻做出了剧烈反应。 美元指数短线急升，美国国债收益率全线上扬。 对利率前景最为敏感的现货黄金价格，在几分钟内 跳水近70美元，从日高5118美元附近最低跌至5018美元。 尽管随后金价有所反弹，但市场的情绪已经被彻底改变。 最直接的变化体现在对美联储降息的预期上。 就在这份报告公布前，市场还在热烈讨论 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates a strong job market, contradicting expectations for an interest rate cut, which may lead to increased pressure on precious metals and equities [1][3][9]. Group 1: Employment Data Impact - February's non-farm employment surged by 130,000, leading to a significant drop in the unemployment rate, which challenges the rationale for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [3][5]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in June have diminished, with swap market data showing a retreat from such bets, resulting in rising U.S. Treasury yields [3][5]. Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - The recent rebound in gold and silver prices appears to be short-lived, with historical data suggesting that silver can experience drastic declines, including drops of 20% in a single day [5][11]. - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by sustained employment and wage growth, undermines the appeal of non-yielding assets like precious metals against rising Treasury yields [7][9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Predictions - The market sentiment is fragile, with many investors clinging to the illusion of an impending rate cut; a realization of this illusion could trigger significant sell-offs in precious metals [9][12]. - The historical trend shows that tight labor markets are often associated with prolonged high interest rates, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's focus remains on controlling inflation rather than supporting equity markets [9][12].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market shows signs of stabilization with unexpected job growth in January, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, although underlying risks remain [1][3]. Employment Data - In January, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding market expectations of 50,000 to 75,000, marking the largest increase since mid-2025 [3]. - The unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3% [3]. - Job growth was observed in healthcare (82,000 jobs), social assistance (42,000 jobs), and construction (33,000 jobs), while federal government and financial sectors saw job losses [3]. - Average hourly earnings for private sector non-farm employees rose by $0.15 to $37.17, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [3]. Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, spot gold prices dropped nearly $40, the U.S. dollar index rose by 50 points, and U.S. Treasury yields increased significantly [3]. Employment Trends - Despite the positive January data, the overall employment indicators remain weak, with only 22,000 jobs added in the private sector according to ADP, indicating ongoing challenges in the job market [5]. - The labor market added only 584,000 jobs in 2025, the worst performance since 2020, with a downward revision of 898,000 jobs for the previous year [4][6]. Economic Outlook - Economists warn against over-optimism regarding the January job growth, suggesting that the increase may not signify a substantial shift in employment trends [6]. - The rise in healthcare jobs is seen as a potential vulnerability, with concerns that any slowdown in this sector could negatively impact the overall job market [6]. Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The employment market's performance is a key consideration for the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate cuts, with a recent increase in the probability of maintaining current rates [8]. - Economic advisors suggest that a slight reduction in job growth may be reasonable given the context of high GDP growth and rising productivity [8]. - The Fed's Chairman Powell noted the complexities in interpreting labor market dynamics, emphasizing the need to understand whether labor supply constraints are due to demand or supply factors [9].

Core Viewpoint - The January non-farm payroll data in the U.S. exceeded expectations, indicating a stabilization in the job market, which may allow the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts before June [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Data - In January, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 65,000 jobs. The private sector saw a notable rebound, particularly in the education and healthcare sectors [1]. - The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, which was better than expected, despite an increase in labor force participation [1]. - Average weekly hours worked and hourly wage growth both showed an uptick, alleviating short-term concerns about job market weakness [1]. Group 2: Annual Revisions - The annual revision for March 2025 showed a downward adjustment of 862,000 non-seasonally adjusted non-farm jobs, which was close to the previous estimate of 911,000 jobs. The seasonally adjusted annual job growth was revised down from 584,000 to 181,000, resulting in an average monthly job addition of approximately 15,000 [2]. - The market had anticipated the extent of the downward revision, which did not cause significant disruption [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - The stronger-than-expected non-farm data has somewhat diminished market expectations for interest rate cuts. It is believed that the Federal Reserve may have the capacity to maintain a pause on rate cuts until June, given the stabilization in the job market [2]. - Following the release of the non-farm data, the market's expectation for a rate cut in March dropped to below 6%, with a higher likelihood of cuts occurring in June and September [2].

Group 1 - The long-term U.S. Treasury yields are expected to remain stable in the short term but are projected to rise later in the year due to inflation and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Nearly 60% of bond strategists believe that the massive issuance of government debt to finance Trump's tax cuts and spending plans will make it unfeasible for the Federal Reserve to significantly reduce its balance sheet by $6.6 trillion [1] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement two rate cuts later this year, with the first expected in June when Walsh takes over as Fed Chair [1] Group 2 - The 2-year Treasury yield, sensitive to interest rates, is projected to decrease from the current 3.50% to 3.45% by the end of April and further to 3.38% by the end of July [1] - The median forecast indicates that the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is expected to rise to 4.29% in one year, up from last month's prediction of 4.20% [1]

尽管本周录得一定涨幅，但贵金属价格自1月下旬从历史高位暴跌以来一直保持波动，且难以恢复。近 期美元的下跌以及疲软的美国经济数据仅提供了有限支撑。中东地缘局势的不确定性也让黄金的避险需 求持续承压。 由于12月零售销售数据弱于预期，美元走软，金属价格上涨。澳新银行（ANZ）分析师指出，黄金此 前的涨势因市场担心其"涨得太猛、太快"而停滞。分析师表示，随着投机头寸已基本洗清，交易员正在 寻找下一轮走高的催化剂，疲软的美国经济数据引发了一些买盘。 2月12日，在疲软的美国零售销售数据提振了对全球最大经济体正在降温的押注后，黄金价格于周三上 涨。目前的焦点正转向即将公布的非农就业数据，以寻求更明确的指引。 2月12日，在疲软的美国零售销售数据提振了对全球最大经济体正在降温的押注后，黄金价格于周三上 涨。目前的焦点正转向即将公布的非农就业数据，以寻求更明确的指引。 尽管本周录得一定涨幅，但贵金属价格自1月下旬从历史高位暴跌以来一直保持波动，且难以恢复。近 期美元的下跌以及疲软的美国经济数据仅提供了有限支撑。中东地缘局势的不确定性也让黄金的避险需 求持续承压。 由于12月零售销售数据弱于预期，美元走软，金属价格上涨。澳新 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Nasdaq faces downward pressure, and the downward risk of US stocks will spill over. US stock funds are flowing from technology stocks to defensive sectors. It is advisable to exit long positions in stock index futures, reduce equity - type assets, or use short positions in stock index futures to hedge risks or buy put options for protection [4][6]. - China's inflation level moderately rebounded in January. The central bank maintains ample liquidity, supporting long positions in treasury bonds. Treasury bond futures may maintain a volatile pattern, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations [5]. - After previous sharp fluctuations, the volatility of precious metals is narrowing. However, there is still a possibility of significant fluctuations during the Spring Festival holiday. It is recommended to control risks and hold light positions [5]. - For the "Three Oils and Two Meals" strategy, it is recommended to close long positions in double meals before the festival to lock in profits and pay attention to the decline expectation after the festival. For vegetable oils, it is recommended to exit previous long positions, hold light positions during the holiday, and resume trading after the festival [23][29][31]. - For sugar and jujubes, it is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - and long - term, use options for risk control, or hold empty positions during the holiday [24][35]. - For cotton, apples, and logs, cotton is expected to maintain a volatile pattern; apples are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term; logs are expected to have an upward price space [25][36][37][38]. - For corn, hogs, and eggs, it is necessary to pay attention to relevant risks such as grain quality, supply pressure, and chicken culling rhythm after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday [26][39][40][42]. - For crude oil, the price is expected to show a short - term upward - trending volatility before the outcome of the US - Iran situation is determined [49]. - For lithium carbonate, the fundamentals are strong, but it is necessary to manage positions during the holiday [52]. - For methanol, it is in an interval - running pattern, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation during the holiday [55]. - For urea, the price is likely to rise but is restricted by policies. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and domestic demand progress during the holiday [58]. - For pure benzene, the price is expected to show a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and post - holiday demand [61]. - For bottle chips, the price is expected to follow the raw material end in a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and crude oil performance [62]. - For rubber series, it is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to the overseas market [66]. - For steel, iron ore, coking coal and coke, and ferroalloys, it is recommended to significantly reduce positions to avoid risks during the holiday [67][68][69][70]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper prices may be suppressed by the strengthening US dollar; for aluminum, alumina, and caustic soda, it is recommended to hold light positions and operate cautiously during the holiday [85][86][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - The rebound of the Nasdaq is a technical pullback after breaking below the semi - annual line. Hedge funds have sold US stocks for four consecutive weeks, and the selling in the first week of February was the most intense since April last year [4]. - Investors are worried that the industry disruption brought by AI may be more extensive than expected, and companies planning to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in AI construction may not meet high - profit expectations. US stock funds are flowing from technology stocks to defensive sectors [4]. - It is recommended to exit long positions in stock index futures, reduce equity - type assets, or use short positions in stock index futures to hedge risks or buy put options for protection [4]. Treasury Bonds - In January, China's overall inflation level moderately rebounded. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month [5]. - In January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the service industry business activity index was 49.5%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a moderate economy in January [5]. - The central bank maintains ample liquidity, supporting long positions in treasury bonds. Treasury bond futures may maintain a volatile pattern, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations [5]. Precious Metals Gold and Silver - After previous sharp fluctuations, the volatility of precious metals is narrowing. The COMEX gold may form an equilibrium at around $5000 per ounce, and the COMEX silver at around $80 per ounce [5]. - However, due to the long Spring Festival holiday and many uncertainties in overseas markets, there is still a possibility of significant fluctuations in gold and silver [5]. Palladium - Before the festival, palladium shows characteristics of spot shortage, high - price volatility, and being dominated by macro - sentiment. The short - term support is strong, but the callback risk is prominent [19]. - It is recommended to reduce positions on rallies, operate cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, and avoid chasing up. Short - term short positions can be tried lightly above 400 yuan per gram [19]. Platinum - Before the festival, platinum prices are highly volatile, in a pattern of tight supply - demand balance and low inventory. The medium - and long - term structural shortage supports prices, but the short - term callback and basis reversal risks are prominent [22]. - It is recommended to operate cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, and avoid one - sided short selling [22]. Three Oils and Two Meals Three Oils - Policy: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the exchange raises margins to control risks, leading to a decline in market trading enthusiasm and downward pressure on the vegetable oil market [29]. - Macro: The US - Iran negotiation results have a significant impact on international crude oil prices, and vegetable oil futures prices will follow to some extent [29]. - Fundamentals: The US biodiesel policy boosts US soybean oil, while Indonesia cancels the 2026 B50 biodiesel plan, pressuring Malaysian palm oil. Domestic vegetable oil Spring Festival stocking is over, and the Brazilian soybean harvest progress is accelerating, bringing pressure to the vegetable oil market [29]. - It is recommended to exit previous long positions in vegetable oils, hold light positions during the holiday, and resume trading after the festival [29]. Two Meals - Policy: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the exchange raises margins to control risks, leading to a decline in market trading enthusiasm [31]. - Macro: China's new round of purchases of US soybeans pushes up US soybean prices, and there are rumors of tightening import grain policies in China [31]. - Fundamentals: The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is accelerating, and the expected 184 million tons of production weakens the South American soybean discount. There are rumors of a 5 - million - ton auction of old - reserve imported soybeans after the Spring Festival in China, and the supply pressure is increasing [31]. - It is recommended to close long positions in double meals before the festival to lock in profits [31]. Sugar and Jujubes - Sugar: The recent ICE raw sugar has fallen below the 14 - cent - per - pound integer support, reaching a five - year low. The global sugar supply - demand balance sheet exerts pressure on sugar prices, and the domestic sugar spot trading is stagnant before the festival. It is recommended to use options for risk control or hold empty positions during the holiday [35]. - Jujubes: Before the festival, jujube futures prices rebounded due to the exit of short positions. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing prices. It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - and long - term and hold previous high - level short positions during the holiday [35]. Cotton, Apples, and Logs Cotton - The international cotton market is in a loose pattern. The supply shows structural changes, and the consumption is differentiated. The domestic supply is abundant, and the downstream trading is slowing down before the festival. Cotton prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [36]. Apples - The pre - festival trading in apple production areas is basically over. The cold - storage good - quality apples are in short supply, raising the cost of warehouse receipts. Apple prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term [37]. Logs - The log futures market has both bullish and bearish factors. The price of 3 - meter wood squares in Lanshan area is rising, and the market expects the log price to have an upward space, injecting positive factors into the futures market [38]. Corn, Hogs, and Eggs Corn - Short - term: The spot market trading is light before the Spring Festival, with narrow - range fluctuations. Medium - term: There is still inventory - building demand after the Spring Festival, and a wide - range trading idea should be maintained. Long - term: The pricing logic is still based on substitution + planting cost [39]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to the post - holiday grain quality and policy - grain auction [39]. Hogs - Short - term: The supply of hogs is abundant, and the consumption support is weak before the holiday. Medium - term: The supply pressure will continue to be released before March, and will be alleviated from April. Long - term: The supply pressure will still exist before August, and the far - month contract expectations are lowered [40]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and focus on the post - holiday supply pressure and disease situation [40]. Eggs - Short - term: The spot trading is light before the Spring Festival, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in February is putting pressure on egg prices. Medium - term: The egg supply pressure is postponed. Long - term: The continuous expansion of the egg - laying hen breeding scale may limit the price increase space [42]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and focus on the chicken culling and molting rhythm around the Spring Festival [42]. Crude Oil - The US - Iran negotiation and market liquidity have affected the crude oil price recently. The price is expected to show a short - term upward - trending volatility before the outcome of the US - Iran situation is determined [49]. Lithium Carbonate - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, leading to the stabilization of precious metals and the rebound of the non - ferrous sector. The fundamentals are strong, with production and inventory decreasing. The lithium - battery industry's production plan in March is expected to reach a new high [52]. - It is necessary to manage positions during the holiday [52]. Methanol - The methanol port inventory is at a high level, and the overseas Iranian methanol plants are expected to gradually resume in March. The price is in an interval - running pattern, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation during the holiday [55]. Urea - Urea factories have been destocking since mid - October last year, and the price is supported by reserve demand and agricultural stocking. However, high daily production still exerts pressure. The price is likely to rise but is restricted by policies. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and domestic demand progress during the holiday [58]. Pure Benzene - Crude oil provides strong cost support for pure benzene. Although the current market is weak, the future supply - demand pattern is good. It is expected that the price will show a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and post - holiday demand [61]. Bottle Chips - Crude oil provides strong cost support for bottle chips. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to follow the raw material end in a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and crude oil performance [62]. Rubber Series Natural Rubber - Before the festival, natural rubber prices are oscillating strongly. The overseas raw material is in the production - reduction season, and the overall warming of commodities boosts the price. However, the seasonal inventory accumulation may suppress the market during the holiday. It is recommended to hold light long positions during the holiday [66]. Synthetic Rubber - Recently, BR has been oscillating. Before the festival, the supply of butadiene is not significantly replenished, and the market trading is light. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to overseas geopolitical events and crude oil trends [66]. Steel - The exchange has raised the margin to 12%. There are risks such as insufficient macro - policy easing, liquidity decline, raw material price fluctuations, and external market linkages. It is recommended to significantly reduce positions to avoid risks during the holiday [73]. Iron Ore - The margin has been increased from 11% to 13%, and the daily limit has been raised from 9% to 11%. There are risks such as high inventory, loose supply - demand, pre - holiday capital withdrawal, and external market fluctuations during the holiday. It is recommended to significantly reduce positions [76]. Coking Coal and Coke - Before the Spring Festival, the coking coal spot trading is relatively sluggish, and the market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to post - holiday policies and coal imports [80]. Ferroalloys - Before the Spring Festival, the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon futures continue the pattern of "cost support, weak demand, and interval oscillation". The supply and demand of the two types of ferroalloys are different. It is recommended to hold light positions during the holiday and pay attention to supply - side changes and post - holiday resumption of work [83]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March has been significantly reduced, and the strengthening US dollar will suppress copper prices. There are also risks such as tariff expectations, inventory accumulation, and demand substitution [90]. Aluminum - Before the festival, Shanghai aluminum is oscillating weakly, restricted by high inventory and weak demand. It is recommended to hold light positions, operate cautiously, and conduct intraday trading to avoid overnight risks [92]. Alumina - Before the festival, alumina prices are weakly oscillating, under pressure from cost, supply, and demand. It is recommended to observe cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, conduct intraday trading, and avoid one - sided short selling [95]. Caustic Soda - Before the festival, the caustic soda price is under pressure, showing a weak - oscillating trend. It is recommended to short on rallies, operate cautiously, and hold light positions during the holiday [98].

Core Viewpoint - International spot gold prices have been steadily rising due to multiple favorable factors, including a decline in the US dollar index and a continuous drop in US Treasury yields, reflecting increased market bets on a shift in monetary policy [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The current spot gold price has reached approximately $5048.27, while the more actively traded April futures have touched $5072.60, indicating strong market performance ahead of key macroeconomic data releases [1][2]. - The recent decline in the US dollar index to a near two-week low has significantly reduced the cost for overseas investors to hold gold [3]. - The core driving force behind gold's performance is attributed to a shift in the pricing logic of the US Treasury market, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield dropping to a one-month low due to weak retail data and historical data revisions [3]. Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is a focal point for the market, with economists expecting January job growth to remain at a low level of 70,000, and the unemployment rate to potentially stay around 4.4% [4]. - The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to significantly revise the annual employment benchmark down to March 2025, with a potential gap of up to 910,000 jobs, which could support market expectations for a more accommodative path from the Federal Reserve [4]. - Market sentiment regarding interest rate expectations is increasingly optimistic, with investors pricing in at least two rate cuts by 2026, which underpins a long-term positive outlook for precious metals like gold and silver [4].

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the forecast of 65,000 and a revised previous value of 48,000[5] - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the expected and previous rate of 4.4%[5] Sector Performance - Job growth was primarily driven by improvements in education and healthcare sectors, which added 84,000 jobs[7] - The goods-producing sector saw an increase of 36,000 jobs, with construction and manufacturing improving, while mining jobs decreased[7] Wage Growth and Inflation - Private sector hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%[7] - Core service inflation pressures are rising, particularly in the education and healthcare sectors, correlating with significant job growth in these areas[7] Interest Rate Outlook - Despite the strong employment data, the expectation for interest rate cuts remains unchanged, with a baseline expectation of no cuts during Powell's remaining term[7] - Following the appointment of Waller in May, there is a potential for at least 50 basis points of rate cuts within the year, influenced by tariff impacts on inflation[7] Risks - There is a risk of inflation exceeding expectations, which could hinder the possibility of rate cuts[6]