Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing significant signs of slowing down, with expectations for non-farm payrolls to remain below 100,000 for August, and an anticipated unemployment rate increase to 4.3% [1] - The Chief Economist of East Asia Bank, Zhuo Liang, agrees with the assessment of a slowing labor market and suggests that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates this month, with a high probability of a 25 basis point reduction [1] - There is a possibility of data revisions from the statistical bureau, as past non-farm payroll data has shown considerable volatility, which may affect market expectations for interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Zhuo Liang forecasts a total interest rate reduction of 50 basis points in the second half of the year, followed by an additional 100 basis points in the following year [1] - The article notes that significant revisions in non-farm payroll data in the past have been linked to statistical methods and low response rates in surveys, indicating potential for future revisions depending on the new statistical bureau director's reforms [1]

Group 1 - Concerns over technology stock bubbles and government budget inflation are rising on Wall Street after the holiday [1] - The Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 1.3%, exacerbating the sell-off triggered by technology stocks last week [1] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6 basis points to 4.99%, while the UK 30-year yield reached its highest level since 1998 [1] Group 2 - French long-term bond yields surged to their highest level since 2009, with potential political instability looming for the French government [3] - Mohamed El-Erian noted that rising long-term bond yields in developed countries, particularly in the UK, reflect a growing fiscal deficit [3] - The market is approaching a critical phase as expectations for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in 2025 are set to be tested this month [3] Group 3 - The volatility index (VIX) rose by 15.5%, reaching its highest level since August 5, indicating increased investor anxiety [4] - Market caution is prevalent as key U.S. inflation and labor market data are approaching, suggesting a need for careful action in the future [4]

黄金新一轮上攻，已经开始？ 当前，金价在美联储降息东风的推动下向上突破，伦敦现货黄金突破3500美元/盎司关口，多家机构预测，在横盘4个月之 后，贵金属有望开启新一轮上涨趋势。摩根士丹利已经将黄金年底目标价设定为3800美元/盎司。 黄金白银联手创新高 9月2日，伦敦现货黄金在亚洲交易时段突破3500美元/盎司关口，最高触及3508.49美元/盎司，再创历史新高。这已是国 际现货金价连续六个交易日上涨，结束了长达四个月的横盘整理。 与此同时，COMEX黄金、白银期货价格也在亚洲交易时段联手创下历史新高，其中，COMEX黄金盘中最高价达3578.4 美元/盎司，COMEX白银盘中最高价触及41.99美元/盎司。COMEX白银和伦敦现货白银都创下2012年以来的最高水平。 国内方面，截至收盘，沪金主力2510合约报收于804.32元/克，涨幅为1.21%；沪银主力2510合约报收于9824元/千克，涨 幅达2.33%，刷新上市以来新高。 多家金融机构指出，美联储降息可能是短期内对金价最大的利好。当前走势，或显示市场已经开始提前消化美联储在9月 议息会议上降息的影响。最新的芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察（FedWat ...

Group 1 - Silver prices have surpassed $40 per ounce, reaching the highest level since September 21, 2011 [1] - The U.S. core PCE index year-on-year recorded at 2.9%, meeting expectations, and has risen for three consecutive months [1] - Market participants are betting on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates following dovish comments from Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting [1] Group 2 - China Silver Group (00815) saw its stock price increase by over 10%, currently trading at HKD 0.52 with a trading volume of HKD 52.997 million [2]

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with a total trading volume of 2.87 trillion yuan, an increase of 125 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.14%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 2.85% [1] - Despite the market's pullback, active trading indicates that many investors are seizing the opportunity to enter the market [1] Gold Market Insights - Gold prices are showing signs of upward momentum, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with a nearly 90% probability according to CME Fed Watch data [3][5] - Recent geopolitical uncertainties and the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation are contributing to the bullish outlook for gold [3][5] - The independence of the Federal Reserve may be compromised by recent actions from the Trump administration, which could further support gold prices in the long term [5] Robotics Industry Developments - The humanoid robot sector saw a rise, with the robotics industry ETF increasing by 0.45% [6] - Tesla's anticipated production of humanoid robots and its "Master Plan" to integrate AI into physical products are key developments in the industry [6][7] - The domestic robotics company Yushu Technology plans to submit an IPO application in Q4, which will provide more operational data [6] Industrial Machinery Sector - The industrial machinery sector showed positive performance, with the industrial mother machine index rising by 1.80% [8] - A new standardization plan aims to establish a high-quality standard system for industrial mother machines by 2026, which could enhance product quality and international competitiveness [8] - The machine tool industry is recovering, with a reported revenue of 578.9 billion yuan from January to July 2025, a slight decline of 1.0% year-on-year, but with significant growth in specific segments like metal cutting and forming machines [9]

当周生生金价单日跳涨16元/克、纽约金期货冲破3578美元时，无数投资者在深夜盯着行情软件屏住呼吸。9月2日亚洲早盘，现货黄金以3508.73美元刷新历 史纪录，这已是年内第三次冲击3500美元大关。美联储降息概率飙升至89.7%、中东战火重燃、美元指数跌至五周新低——三重风暴眼交汇下，黄金的避险 光芒正前所未有的耀眼。 金价暴涨背后的三大推手 芝商所美联储观察工具显示，市场对9月降息25个基点的预期概率已达89.7%。8月美国非农就业数据即将公布，若证实劳动力市场疲软，可能彻底打开降息 闸门。历史经验表明，美联储每次降息周期启动后6个月内，黄金平均涨幅达19%。 俄乌冲突持续胶着，中东局势再度升温，地缘政治风险推高全球避险需求。更关键的是美元指数跌破102关口，创5周新低。黄金与美元历来呈现"跷跷板效 应"，美元每贬值1%，金价平均上涨0.85%。 中国黄金协会《全球黄金年鉴2025》披露，2024年全球央行净购金量连续第三年突破千吨。其中中国央行黄金储备已达7396万盎司，实现9个月连增。机构 买盘形成坚实支撑，使得金价回调幅度显著小于往年。 历史会重演？金价周期启示录 对比2011年与2020年两次大牛 ...

·中信证券：预计人民币汇率破7仍需要更多催化 ·高盛：尽管存在政治动荡法国交易活动预计仍将加速 ·荷兰国际：欧元最大的风险或许是市场的过度多头持仓 ·三菱日联：法国政治局势不太可能破坏欧元涨势 ·德意志银行：英国30年期国债收益率升至27年高位 ·中金：预计美国通胀中枢可能将持续抬升 ·华泰证券：美联储9月降息概率较大重视金银板块机会 【机构分析】 ·中信证券研报称，8月下旬，在美元指数偏弱运行创造了相对温和的外部环境、人民银行中间价报价释 放较强的汇率预期引导、以及近期国内权益市场表现亮眼或一定程度吸引了外资流入等内外因素共振的 驱动下，人民币汇率经历了一轮快速升值，美元兑在岸人民币汇率录得年内新低。短期来看，人民币汇 率有望震荡偏强，并逐步回归"三价合一"。随着年底的临近，若人民币汇率能维持偏强震荡，预计相关 结汇需求有望继续支撑人民币汇率，但当前国内基本面对于汇率而言更多起到托底作用，权益市场迎来 外资流入但债券市场面临一定流出压力，预计人民币汇率破7仍需要更多催化。 ·高盛集团巴黎联席主管Celine-Marie Mechain预计，尽管法国当前正处于政治动荡之中，该国的交易活 动预计仍将加速。周二， ...

Group 1 - UBS analysts suggest that the European Central Bank's rate-cutting cycle may have ended, with expectations to maintain the deposit rate at 2% during the September policy meeting. This is based on anticipated large-scale fiscal stimulus from the EU, including increased defense spending and infrastructure investment in Germany, which are expected to support the economy starting in early 2026 [1] - Saxo Bank reports that silver prices have surpassed $40 per ounce for the first time since September 2011, driven by macroeconomic support, industrial demand growth, and supply shortages. The current price is $40.70 per ounce, with expectations that rising US rate cut expectations will continue to boost silver alongside gold [1] - ING analysts indicate that the upcoming US non-farm payroll report will significantly influence gold prices, which have been on an upward trend. A weak report could strengthen the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in September [2][3] Group 2 - MUFG analysts predict that a weak US non-farm payroll report could lead to further declines in the dollar and potentially prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 50 basis points in September, with current market expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point cut [3] - Societe Generale highlights that the pound is facing downward pressure due to high inflation and low growth in the UK, presenting challenges for the Bank of England's policy [5] - CICC forecasts that US inflation pressures may continue to rise, suggesting that if rate cuts occur during high inflation periods, it could lead to a steepening of the yield curve, with the 10-year rate potentially reaching 4.8% by year-end [6] Group 3 - Huatai Securities emphasizes that the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September could drive down real interest rates, benefiting gold investments. They suggest that unless the US economy returns to a high-growth, low-inflation scenario, the upward trend in gold prices may persist [6] - CITIC Securities notes that the recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD may require additional catalysts to break the 7 level, with current market conditions providing support for the currency [7] - CITIC Securities also indicates that the bond market's pricing may reflect a more dominant domestic influence, suggesting that the relationship between equity and bond markets is not necessarily oppositional [8] Group 4 - CITIC Jinpu reports that lithium carbonate production in China reached a new high of over 85,000 tons in August, with a 5% month-on-month increase and a 39% year-on-year increase. The downstream demand is entering a traditional peak season, providing support for lithium prices [9]

Market Overview - U.S. stock index futures are all down ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures down 0.58%, S&P 500 futures down 0.72%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.94% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 1.46%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.20%, France's CAC40 down 0.36%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.83% [2][3] Oil Prices - WTI crude oil increased by 2.72% to $65.75 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 1.60% to $69.24 per barrel [3][4] Economic Insights - Morgan Stanley predicts that the U.S. stock market will continue to rise due to strong corporate earnings and an anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5] - UBS warns of seasonal risks in September, historically the worst month for U.S. stocks, despite strong performance in August driven by EPS revisions [5] - UBS also forecasts that the Federal Reserve will initiate a series of rate cuts totaling 100 basis points starting in September due to stable inflation and a weakening labor market [6] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its Q3 U.S. GDP forecast to 1.6% due to a larger-than-expected trade deficit [6] Company News - Tesla has received only over 600 orders since launching in India, significantly below expectations, attributed to high tariffs and infrastructure challenges [9] - Starbucks reports a significant increase in sales due to the return of its seasonal pumpkin spice products, marking a turnaround in its sales performance [10] - Kraft Heinz announced plans to split into two publicly traded companies to boost growth, focusing on condiments and grocery products [10] - NIO reported a total revenue of 19.0087 billion yuan for Q2, a 9% year-over-year increase, with vehicle deliveries reaching a record high [11]

步入9月，市场翘首以盼的大件事-美联储议息即将来袭。此前，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克森霍尔央行研 讨会上的发言强化了市场对9月降息的预期，而是否真如预期般加息，市场又将迎来怎么样的冲击？黄 金行情蓄势待发，领峰贵金属（igoldtg.top/krHkvj）送上9月交易点差礼，更低门槛，享超值每手回赠高 达$26回赠福利！ 鲍威尔强化9月降息预期，金价强劲反弹 近日，联储主席鲍威尔在杰克森霍尔央行研讨会上的发言强化了市场对9月降息的预期，受鲍威尔讲话 的直接刺激，现货黄金价格一度强劲上涨1%。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的FedWatch工具显示，交易 员目前预计9月降息25个基点的可能性为85%，高于鲍威尔讲话前的75%。 高盛交易员认为，如果8月非农就业增长低于10万人，特别是在政治压力面前，将有助于确定9月降息。 图源：网络 此外，最新的通胀数据延续反弹，鲍威尔预计关税对通胀的影响将在未来几个月继续积累，同时表示影 响时间与程度的目前仍具有不确定性，不过认为这些影响大多为一次性的，这也是鲍威尔敢释放降息信 号的关键因素之一。所以目前通胀与就业之间的风险权重正在发生变化，美联储开始向就业风险方面倾 向，不过需要注 ...