Core Insights - National Pension Insurance Co., Ltd. has entered into a strategic cooperation project with Allianz Investment, marking the first collaboration following their capital increase and strategic investment [1][2] - The partnership aims to integrate National Pension's digital retirement planning services with Allianz's advanced asset allocation capabilities, creating a comprehensive solution for personalized and intelligent retirement asset management [1] Group 1: Strategic Collaboration - The collaboration will leverage Allianz's global pension asset allocation models and capabilities through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Allianz Fund, in China [1] - The project will provide a one-stop solution that includes goal planning, portfolio configuration, account services, transaction execution, and long-term support for retirement financial planning [1] Group 2: Market Context and Goals - Allianz Fund's Chairman and General Manager, Shen Liang, emphasized the need for personalized asset allocation and systematic solutions in China's retirement finance sector, which is evolving into a wealth management 2.0 phase [1] - The partnership aims to combine international best practices with local conditions in China, enhancing service efficiency and improving pension fund management capabilities [2]

Core Insights - The world's largest endowment fund, Harvard Management Company (HMC), has increased its investments in alternative assets, particularly Bitcoin and gold, in the third quarter, indicating a shift towards diversifying risk and enhancing returns amid volatility in traditional stock and bond markets [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - HMC has raised its holdings in the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF to 6,813,800 shares, valued at approximately $443 million, and increased its position in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) to 661,391 shares, worth about $235 million [1][4]. - Bitcoin now constitutes 21% of HMC's disclosed U.S. equity assets, making it the largest single holding in its 13F portfolio, with Bitcoin allocations being twice that of gold ETF investments [2][5]. Group 2: Market Trends - The continuous increase in HMC's Bitcoin and gold holdings over two consecutive quarters reflects a more proactive stance from institutional investors towards digital assets, suggesting Bitcoin is gradually being integrated as a core asset in mature portfolios rather than merely a speculative investment [2][5]. - Gold prices have approached $4,188 per ounce this year, marking a nearly 60% year-over-year increase, while Bitcoin has seen a 2% decline, yet its market volatility still offers opportunities for arbitrage and portfolio optimization [2][5]. Group 3: Economic Context - Economic experts suggest a potential capital rotation from the bond market to gold, emphasizing that the greatest risk currently is not holding any gold [3][6]. - With central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, continuing to implement interest rate cuts, the attractiveness of fixed-income investments may diminish, highlighting the hedging and appreciation characteristics of gold and Bitcoin [3][6]. - The strategic allocation of Bitcoin and gold is viewed as a means to enhance potential returns while providing effective protection against inflation and interest rate risks, making them essential components of future investment portfolios [3][6].

导读：今年，是市场重新认识"固收+"的一年。从过去的"债券打低，股票增强"，到今天百花齐放 的"+"。"固收+"不再只是固收投资中的一个分支，而是延伸出多风险层次、多投资策略、多资产类别的基 金品类。在低利率时代下，"固收+"承载了大量的储蓄搬家和理财替代。 作为东方红资产管理的老朋友，我们曾经访谈过多位东方红"固收"基金经理，包括胡伟、纪文静、孔令 超、余剑峰等。在我们此前举办的"固收+"线下论坛中，也邀请了东方红"固收+"团队中的余剑峰进行圆桌 交流。每年我们的TOP 50固收基金经理中，也都有东方红"固收+"团队的基金经理。 当我们把这些"固收+"基金经理和其产品串联起来后，逐渐发现了一个完整的拼图。 他们的背后，是一个 寻求整体最优解、强调基本面投资、注重风险把控和产品分层的东方红"固收+"团队。 许多人或许不知道， 东方红资产管理是业内最早布局"固收+"的基金公司之一。 从2015年上半年开始布 局"固收+"业务以来，东方红资产管理一直在团队和规模上保持克制。等到2020年整体投研框架搭建完毕 后，才开始逐渐扩大团队规模和产品线。 为持有人创造长期价值，一直是刻在东方红资产管理的底层理念。经历了多年 ...

南方财经全媒体记者 林汉垚 近日，国民养老保险股份有限公司（以下简称"国民养老"）与其股东安联投资 （AllianzGlobalInvestorsGmbH）正式达成增资引战后的首个战略合作项目，双方将深度融合国民养老"赵钱孙 李®"数字养老规划服务能力和安联投资先进的大类资产配置服务能力，推出以商保年金产品为默认配置选 项。 此外，安联投资在华全资子公司安联基金表示，将依托股东安联投资下设的风险实验室（risklab）在中国落地 的全球养老金资产配置模型和能力，充分整合安联投资的全球养老金解决方案能力和经验，助力本次合作项 目落地。 引入安联投资大类资产配置服务 据悉，风险实验室（risklab）是安联投资独有的资产配置量化研究平台，通过量化的研究模型为客户提供资产 配置建议和解决方案，在资产配置模型、技术与服务模式拥有领先的全球经验。 因此，此次合作国民养老将吸收借鉴安联投资在全球养老金市场的经验，在"赵钱孙李"养老规划服务平台建 设成果基础上，通过引入安联投资大类资产配置服务，同时对内衔接整合公司商保年金产品、账户服务、组 合交易、机构服务等各项资源能力，为个人养老资金的规划、积累、配置和支取提供系统性、 ...

在瞬息万变的经济环境中，读懂趋势并踩准财富节奏无疑是成功的关键。今天我将深入分析如何理解经济周期、识别关键指标、把握新兴产业机会、构建个 人财富管理框架以及采取有效的防御策略，帮助读者在复杂多变的经济局势中稳如泰山，实现财富增长。 1. 经济周期的四个阶段 经济周期通常分为四个阶段：繁荣、衰退、萧条和回升。繁荣期经济增长迅速，企业和个人投资活跃；衰退期经济陷入停滞，失业率上升；萧条期经济进一 步恶化，市场信心低迷；回升期则是经济开始复苏，投资和消费逐渐回暖。 1. 宏观经济指标 读者需建立一个"三维数据雷达"，监控GDP增速与结构分解、物价与就业、政策风向标。2025年二季度，中国GDP同比增长4.8%，其中数字经济贡献率达到 42.3%，战略性新兴产业增速达15.6%。 2. 驱动经济周期的因素 技术革命是经济周期的主要驱动力。当前，我们正处于第五次康波周期，即新能源和人工智能革命的回升期。人性在经济周期中也起着重要作用，贪婪与恐 惧的情绪波动常常导致资产价格的过度波动，如历史上的荷兰郁金香狂热和2008年金融危机。 3. 当前经济周期的位置 2025年，全球经济呈现出"分化复苏"的格局。美国加息周期接近尾 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is experiencing a downturn, with the 10-year government bond yield remaining above 1.8% since September, leading to a total return of only 0.78% for pure bond funds this year, which is lower than that of money market funds [1][2] - The recent simultaneous decline in both stock and bond markets is attributed to low risk-reward environments and ongoing concerns about potential new regulations, resulting in insufficient buying interest from investors [2][4] - The bond market's weakness is further exacerbated by year-end profit-taking demands from institutions, alongside a lack of significant short-term positive catalysts, leading to increased selling pressure [1][4] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that significant adjustments in the bond market are often linked to economic expectations, policy shifts, and changes in trading structures, with past downturns indicating a pattern of recovery following each major decline [5][7] - The bond market has undergone five notable adjustments in the past five years, with each instance reflecting a re-evaluation of market conditions and investor sentiment [5][7] - Current market conditions suggest that while the bond market may remain in a narrow trading range in the short term, there is potential for improvement in the short-end supply-demand structure due to a clear supportive stance from the central bank [4][8] Group 3 - Investment strategies in the current bond market environment should focus on short to medium-duration bond funds, while maintaining a cautious stance on long-duration bonds until market trends become clearer [9][11] - The concept of "timing" in bond fund investment is less critical than ensuring a balanced asset allocation, as bonds inherently possess income-generating characteristics that can mitigate short-term volatility [8][9] - The introduction of "fixed income plus" strategies is recommended to enhance returns while managing risk, particularly in a fluctuating market [11][13]

01 金属专场 | 国信期货2026年年度策略报告会 14:00-17:00 核心看点： 商品市场在理性供需下面临新平衡，成本韧性构筑安全边际。有色金属板块中，铜铝凭借战略价值 成为明确的引领性机遇，增长动能依然强劲。 嘉宾： 李文婧丨国信期货研究所主管 邵荟憧丨国信期货黑色金属分析师 马钰丨国信期货黑色金属分析师 张嘉艺丨国信期货有色金属分析师 扫码预约 嘉宾： 王开丨国信证券策略首席分析师 扫码预约 03 开源陈曦：2026年债市展望：债券收益率的上行空间 16:00-17:00 02 国信策略王开：2026年大类资产配置展望 15:00-16:00 核心看点： 资产配置范式革新，全球宏观新常态下，传统安全资产的根基正在动摇。当作为安全垫的全球债券 本身面临信用风险和波动加剧时，风险对冲功能大打折扣，黄金和海外股市成为破圈所在。全球视 野、本土智慧一起探寻2026资产配置脉搏。 核心看点： Tims中国（THCH.CO）将重点解读三季度营收增速、利润率及成本控制表现，并详细介绍近期可 转债发行与债务结构优化对资本灵活性及财务费用的影响。市场关注公司如何通过本轮调整强化现 金流，支撑门店扩张与数字化战略，同 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the global economic environment is expected to remain accommodative, with a focus on corporate profitability driving equity markets, while investors should be cautious of risks amid market volatility [1][2]. Macroeconomic Outlook - China's economy is projected to maintain stable growth in 2026, with moderate inflation and a focus on industrial transformation and balancing development with security [1]. - The U.S. economy is anticipated to achieve a "soft landing," with manageable short-term inflation pressures, while the AI technology revolution continues to be a core driver across economic cycles [2]. Equity Market Insights - The A-share market is entering a phase where growth will depend more on actual corporate earnings rather than valuation expansion, following a valuation recovery in 2025 [2]. - Investment strategies should focus on four main paths: growth sectors with sustained momentum, globally competitive leading companies, areas with improved supply-demand dynamics, and new opportunities from the industrialization of frontier technologies [2]. Fixed Income Strategy - The bond market is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern in 2026, supported by a loose funding environment and potential resumption of government bond purchases by the central bank [3]. - Credit bonds remain attractive due to stable institutional demand, with a recommended strategy of focusing on medium to short-duration bonds with favorable yields [3]. Alternative Assets - Gold is projected to continue its bull market in 2026, supported by expanding U.S. fiscal deficits, a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, and ongoing central bank purchases [4]. - The commodity market is expected to trend upwards, with significant opportunities in precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products due to changing supply dynamics and favorable liquidity conditions [5]. Quantitative Strategies - The environment for excess returns in stock quantitative strategies is expected to be favorable, with a significant portion of private equity funds now allocated to quantitative strategies [5]. - Market-neutral products are anticipated to provide stable alpha returns by effectively isolating systemic risks in a low-interest-rate environment [5].

在全球经济充满不确定性的当下，资产保值成为越来越多人的关注焦点。与其被动忍受货币贬值，不如主动出击，寻求能够抵御通胀的"硬通货"。最近，我 一位在银行工作的老同学跟我聊起，越来越多的人向他咨询如何应对手中的钱不断贬值的问题。这不仅仅是个理财问题，更深层次地反映了人们对于通胀的 切身感受和对未来经济形势的担忧。 那么，什么是通胀？它又为何会发生？简单来说，通胀就是物价普遍上涨，货币购买力下降的现象。近年来，全球范围内出现了较为明显的通胀趋势。从 2021年开始，无论是美联储还是欧洲央行，都面临着巨大的通胀压力。虽然中国的情况相对稳定，但也难以完全置身事外。导致通胀的原因是多方面的：疫 情期间各国纷纷采取宽松的货币政策，增加了市场上的货币供应量；全球供应链受阻，导致商品短缺；能源价格的波动也推高了生产成本。尽管近期通胀有 所缓和，但潜在的风险依然存在，我们仍需对此做好准备。 面对通胀，最不明智的做法莫过于持有大量现金。因为现金的购买力会随着通胀而不断下降。明智之举是将资金配置到具有抗通胀属性的资产上，也就是所 谓的"硬通货"。以下三种资产，在通胀环境下往往能更好地保值增值。 首先是优质的股权资产，尤其是那些身处" ...

Core Insights - FOF (Fund of Funds) is experiencing significant growth, with a total management scale of 186.99 billion yuan and an average net value growth rate of 12.58% in 2025, indicating strong performance and investor interest [1][2][3] Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of December 8, 2025, the average net value growth rate for FOFs over the past three years is 8.79%, with 121 products achieving over 10% growth in the current year, showcasing their long-term stable return characteristics [2] - Three notable FOFs, including Qianhai Kaiyuan Yuyuan and Guangda Baodexin Yangguang, have net values exceeding 2 yuan, with annual growth rates of 38.13%, 17.01%, and 8.18% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - A total of 74 new FOFs were established in 2025, with issuance reaching 77.61 billion units, marking a four-year high, driven by a low-interest-rate environment and a shift in investor preference towards diversified asset allocation [3] - The issuance of FOFs is supported by policy initiatives and the introduction of personal pension systems, which encourage long-term capital inflow into the market [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies - High-performing FOFs are adopting a refined selection strategy, focusing on industry themes and commodity funds rather than broad market indices, indicating a precise grasp of industry trends [4] - The FOF market has evolved from a scale of less than 10 billion yuan to 186.99 billion yuan, with a diverse range of product strategies including mixed, bond, and thematic funds, catering to various investor needs [4]