2025 年 12 月 05 日 铝：基本面有韧性 氧化铝：继续探底 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 22060 | 120 | ર્સ્વ | 920 | 1270 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22235 | - | - | - | - | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2888 | -10 | ર્સ્ | ー7 | 279 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 246366 | 84754 | 95815 | 28882 | 164288 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 244457 | -4791 | -12681 | -41336 | 27991 | ...

2025年12月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 3 | | 铜：现货坚挺，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：供应减产，价格偏强 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：基本面有韧性 | 12 | | 氧化铝：继续探底 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 铂：交投清淡横盘震荡 | 14 | | 钯：横盘整理 | 14 | | 镍：基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行 | 16 | | 不锈钢：库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：去库边际放缓，上方或承压 | 18 | | 工业硅：偏弱运行 | 20 | | 多晶硅：关注仓单注册情况 | 20 | | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：市场多空博弈，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：市场多空博弈，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 硅铁：电费成本抬升，偏强震荡 | 25 | | 锰硅：矿端报价坚挺，偏强震荡 | 25 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the remarkable journey of Moer Thread, known as the "first domestic GPU stock" in China, highlighting its rapid rise in the semiconductor industry and its recent IPO on the STAR Market, which set multiple records in terms of subscription rates and market valuation [2][3][19]. Financing Journey - Moer Thread completed two rounds of financing within three months of its establishment in 2020, achieving a valuation of over $1 billion, setting a record for the fastest unicorn in the industry [7][8]. - The first round of financing in September 2020 involved investors like Peixian Qianyao and Shenzhen Minghao, with Peixian Qianyao's initial investment of 1.9 million yuan now valued at approximately 11.898 billion yuan, yielding a return of over 6262 times [4][8]. - The angel round in December 2020 attracted top-tier investors, despite the company not having a prototype at that time, primarily due to its exceptional team [9][10]. Team and Technology - The founder, Zhang Jianzhong, previously served as a key executive at NVIDIA, contributing to the establishment of a complete GPU ecosystem in China [10][13]. - The team consists of members from leading tech companies like NVIDIA, Microsoft, Intel, AMD, and ARM, with an average of over ten years of experience [10][13]. Product Development and Market Performance - Moer Thread's first chip was delivered on time, with subsequent iterations accelerating, achieving a milestone of three chips in three years [14][15]. - The company reported revenues of 1.24 billion yuan in 2023, a 169% increase from 2022, demonstrating its commercial viability [15]. Challenges and Resilience - In October 2023, Moer Thread was placed on the U.S. Entity List, posing significant challenges, yet the management committed to increasing R&D investment and product development [17][18]. - Following this, the company secured several hundred million yuan in B+ round financing, indicating strong market confidence despite external pressures [18]. IPO and Market Reception - Moer Thread's IPO process began in November 2024, with significant interest from investors, leading to a pre-IPO round that raised 5.225 billion yuan at a valuation of 24.62 billion yuan [20][22]. - The company’s stock price surged, reflecting the market's renewed interest in its potential as a "Chinese version of NVIDIA" [20][24]. Future Outlook - The founder emphasized the ongoing efforts to enhance product performance and the importance of domestic GPU development in light of external restrictions and market demands [24].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views - On December 5, 2025, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. It is expected that the medium - and long - term monetary policy will remain moderately loose [7][8]. - The macro - environment for the black sector is generally positive, but the black market has no conditions for a trending rise. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and coking coal's far - month 05 contract has conditions for a rebound [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Central Bank's Monetary Operations - On December 4, the central bank announced that on December 5, it would conduct 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a 3 - month (91 - day) term. Since 100 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase is due in December, it means an equal - amount roll - over. It is also expected that the central bank will conduct another 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operation this month, with a high possibility of an increased - amount roll - over. The central bank has basically formed a medium - and long - term capital injection model [8]. Black Sector - **Overall situation**: The fundamentals of the black sector are mediocre, waiting for macro - drivers. The macro environment is generally positive, but steel inventories are high, demand weakens seasonally, and the black industry chain is in a stage of production cut and inventory reduction [10]. - **Iron ore**: The profitability of steel mills has been continuously compressed, and iron ore's rigid demand has decreased. Port inventories have continued to accumulate, but there is demand for winter stockpiling by steel mills, so short - term ore prices are expected to fluctuate [10]. - **Coking coal**: The settlement price of the coking coal 2512 futures contract is 969.5 yuan/ton, at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the spot. The far - month 05 contract has conditions for a rebound [10]. Commodity Futures - **Precious metals**: Gold's expectation of interest rate cuts has risen, and silver has fluctuated downward. The trend intensity of both is 1 [13][16][19]. - **Base metals**: - **Copper**: Spot prices are firm, supporting the price, with a trend intensity of 1 [13][21][23]. - **Zinc**: Supply has been cut, and prices are on the strong side, with a trend intensity of 1 [13][24][26]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][27][28]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted again, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][30][32]. - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals are resilient; alumina continues to decline; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities are 1, - 1, and 1 respectively [13][33][35]. - **Platinum and palladium**: Platinum trades thinly and fluctuates sideways; palladium consolidates sideways. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][36][38]. - **Nickel and stainless steel**: Nickel's fundamentals limit its upward potential and it fluctuates at a low level; stainless steel has high inventories, weak supply and demand, and cost limits its downward potential. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][40][44]. - **Energy and chemical products**: - **Carbonate lithium**: The marginal slowdown of inventory reduction may put pressure on the upper side, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][45][48]. - **Industrial silicon**: It runs weakly, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][49][52]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt registration, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][50][52]. - **Iron ore**: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][53]. - **Rebar and hot - rolled coil**: The market has a long - short game and wide - range fluctuations. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][56][59]. - **Silicon iron and manganese silicon**: Silicon iron's electricity cost has risen, and it fluctuates strongly; manganese silicon's ore - end quotation is firm, and it also fluctuates strongly. The trend intensities of both are 1 [13][61][65]. - **Coke and coking coal**: They fluctuate in a wide range, with trend intensities of 0 [13][66][67]. - **Log**: It fluctuates at a low level, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][68][71]. - **Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene is supported by cost and fluctuates at a high level; PTA fluctuates at a high level unilaterally; MEG's price hits a new low and trends weakly. The trend intensities are 0, 0, and - 1 respectively [13][72][77]. - **Rubber and synthetic rubber**: Rubber fluctuates; synthetic rubber fluctuates downward. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][79][85]. - **Asphalt**: It fluctuates at a low level, and factory inventories have a slight increase, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][86][94]. - **LLDPE**: The basis has declined, and the supply is still loose, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][96][98]. - **PP**: The medium - term trend still faces pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][99][101]. - **Caustic soda**: The trend still faces pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][103][105]. - **Pulp**: It fluctuates, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][107][109]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][112][114]. - **Methanol**: It runs under pressure, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][116][120]. - **Urea**: It gradually enters a fluctuating pattern, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][121][123]. - **Styrene**: It fluctuates in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0 [124][125]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change, with a trend intensity of - 1 [128]. - **LPG and propylene**: LPG's trend is under pressure; propylene's pattern remains loose. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [130][131][135]. - **PVC**: It fluctuates at a low level, with a trend intensity of 0 [139][140]. - **Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil**: Fuel oil rebounds slightly and may temporarily get out of the weak situation; low - sulfur fuel oil weakens at night, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market narrows slightly. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][142]. - **Container shipping index (European line)**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances and price - increase announcements, it fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][144][157]. - **Agricultural products**: - **Short - fiber and bottle - chip**: They fluctuate in the short term and face pressure in the medium term. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][158][159]. - **Offset printing paper**: Long positions should be closed at an appropriate time, with a trend intensity of 0 [160][161]. - **Pure benzene**: It fluctuates mainly in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][165][166]. - **Palm oil and soybean oil**: Palm oil is waiting for the inflection point to be confirmed and is traded within a range for the time being; soybean oil lacks driving force from US soybeans and fluctuates mainly. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][168][173]. - **Soybean meal and soybeans**: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, and Dalian soybean meal fluctuated; the spot price of soybeans is stable and strong, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][174][176]. - **Corn**: It fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][177][180]. - **Sugar**: It runs weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][181][183]. - **Cotton**: Supply and demand are both strong, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][185][188]. - **Eggs**: Culling continues, and the spot price fluctuates mainly, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][191]. - **Hogs**: An increase in supply is approaching, and the industrial logic returns, with a trend intensity of - 2 [13][193][196]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the spot market, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][198][200].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 5 日 黄金：降息预期回升 白银：震荡回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2512 | 959.64 | 1.05% | 964.72 | 0.66% | | | 黄金T+D | 958.27 | 1.15% | 958.50 | 0.19% | | | Comex黄金2512 | 4265.00 | 0.20% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2512 | 13282 | 4.46% | 13766.00 | 5.08% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 13261 | 4.72% | 13720 | 3.27% | | | Comex白银2512 | 58.450 | 2.39% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现货 | #N/A | #N ...

A股摩尔线程上市首日开涨468％，中一签盈利近27万元。公司主要从事GPU及相关产品的研发、设计 和销售，本次募集资金总额近80亿元，主要投向新一代自主可控AI训推一体芯片研发项目、新一代自 主可控图形芯片研发项目、新一代自主可控AISoC芯片研发项目以及补充流动资金。 ...

| | | | | A股迈入全面注册制以来,新股中签收益排行榜TOP10 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 证券名称 | 证券代码 | 上市首日最高价 | 首发价格 (元/股) | 中一签收益 (以500股计,元) | 首发上市日 | | | | | (元/股) | | | | | - | 摩尔线在 | 688795. SH | ୧୧୦ | 114. 28 | 267860 | 2025-12-05 | | 2 | 长联科技 | 301618. SZ | 408 | 21. 12 | 193440 | 2024-09-30 | | S | 诺瓦星云 | 301589. SZ | 418. 68 | 126. 89 | 145895 | 2024-02-08 | | 4 | 威力传动 | 300904. SZ | 305. 7 | 35. 41 | 135145 | 2023-08-09 | | 2 | 六九一二 | 301592. SZ | 289. 99 | 29. 49 | 130250 | 2024-10-24 | | 6 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly confident that Alphabet Inc.'s chip business will become a significant growth engine for future revenue [1][2] Group 1: Chip Business Success - The success of Alphabet's Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) chips is a major reason for the company's stock price soaring by 31% in the fourth quarter, ranking tenth among S&P 500 constituents [1][2] - TPUs have traditionally been viewed as a core advantage for the company, accelerating growth in its cloud computing business [1][2] Group 2: Market Outlook - The market is becoming more optimistic about Alphabet's potential to sell these chips to third parties, which could open a new revenue stream [1][2] - This new revenue channel has the potential to be valued at nearly one trillion dollars [1][2]

12月4日深夜，"寒武纪科技"公众号发布消息称，公司关注到今日媒体及网络传播的关于公司产品、客户、供应及产能 预测等相关信息，均为误导市场的不实信息。 今日，寒武纪尾盘大幅拉升，最终收涨2.75%，报1369元/股，总市值 5773亿元。 日前，有媒体报道，寒武纪计划在2026年将其AI芯片产量提升到目前的三倍，以争夺更多的市场份额，并填补英伟达退出 后留下的市场空白。 东海证券此前指出，2025年前三季度该公司营收与归母净利润同比大幅增长，主要系以思元590为代表的云端产品大幅放 量所致，后续思元690也有望受益于量价齐升的逻辑。 东海证券表示，目前，以阿里、腾讯、字节等为代表的国内云厂商不断加码AI相关的资本开支，且国产替代的诉求日益深 刻，英伟达CEO黄仁勋近期发言称英伟达在中国市场的份额从95%降至0%，在中美科技摩擦的背景下，国产AI芯片迎来 加速替代期。 机构看好后市空间 虽然寒武纪年内涨幅巨大，但是不少机构仍然看好其股价空间。 12月4日，国际投行Bernstein（伯恩斯坦）将寒武纪的评级上调至跑赢大盘，目标价2000元，较现价还有46%的上涨空 间。 寒武纪紧急辟谣 "寒武纪科技"4日晚间发 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moore Threads is set to list on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, achieving a record speed in its IPO process, with significant revenue growth driven by AI-related products [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Moore Threads was founded in 2020 by Zhang Jianzhong, former VP of NVIDIA China, with a core team from major chip companies like NVIDIA and Intel, averaging over ten years of industry experience [2]. - The company has developed a product matrix that includes desktop graphics cards, professional graphics cards, and AI chips for servers, uniquely positioning itself in the domestic market [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue reached 702 million yuan, surpassing the total revenue of 508 million yuan from 2022 to 2024, with over 90% of this revenue coming from AI-related products [3]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 69.14%, a significant turnaround from -70.08% in 2022, with board card products achieving over 70% gross margin and cluster products around 60% [4]. Group 3: Market Projections - According to Guojin Securities, Moore's revenue is projected to be 1.405 billion yuan in 2025 and 2.596 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 220.34% [6][7]. - The company is currently not profitable, making it difficult to calculate P/E and P/B ratios, leading analysts to focus on the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio instead [6]. Group 4: Industry Context - The AI capital expenditure in China is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 25% from 2025 to 2028, reaching 172 billion USD by 2028, indicating strong demand for AI chips [12]. - Bernstein predicts that domestic AI chip supply will increase fivefold by 2028, with local manufacturers expected to capture over 90% market share due to challenges faced by foreign competitors like NVIDIA [14].