Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The concept of "Deep Sea Technology" has been included in the government work report for the first time, indicating significant growth opportunities for the underwater equipment industry [4][10] - The government aims to promote the large-scale application of new technologies and products in emerging industries, including deep sea technology, commercial aerospace, and low-altitude economy [4][10] - The underwater combat capabilities are considered an important component of new domain combat power, with technologies such as underwater acoustic detection and communication, and UUV technology expected to play a crucial role [11] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the defense and military industry is 1555.26, with a 52-week high of 1712.48 and a low of 1113.62 [1] Investment Recommendations - Two main investment themes are suggested: 1) Aerospace and "gap-filling" new focuses, including companies like Feilihua, Fenghuo Electronics, and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft [12][13] 2) New technologies, products, and markets with greater elasticity, including companies like Aerospace Zhizao, Guorui Technology, and Guangdong Hongda [12][13] Market Performance - The military industry index increased by 2.57% this week, ranking 9th among 31 first-level industries [14] - The top ten performing stocks in the military sector this week include Zhongke Haixun (+62.42%) and Hongyuan Electronics (+23.80%) [16] Valuation Levels - As of March 14, 2025, the military industry index stands at 11204.55, with a PE-TTM valuation of 78.84 and a PB valuation of 3.55, both at historical mid-levels [19] Key Data Tracking - The report tracks various aspects, including private placements and stock incentive data for military companies [22][25] - The report highlights significant growth in the low-altitude economy and military trade markets, with the U.S. maintaining a dominant position in global arms exports [28][30]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market is experiencing an upward trend, with the overall A-share market rising by 1.49%. The leading sectors include consumption and financial real estate, while technology is experiencing a downturn [2][11]. - The report highlights that the stock-bond yield spread has decreased to 1.3%, which is below the +1 standard deviation, indicating a decline in valuation differentiation [3][19]. - The report notes that the market sentiment has adjusted, with a decrease in industry rotation intensity, and the five-dimensional market sentiment index has dropped by 5.8% to 47.9 [3][21]. Group 2 - The report discusses the introduction of a childcare subsidy in Hohhot, which is expected to boost birth rates and consumer spending in the maternal and infant product sectors [4][40]. - Manus has announced a strategic partnership with Alibaba's Tongyi Qianwen team, which is expected to accelerate the commercialization of AI Agent technologies [4][41]. - The upcoming NVIDIA GTC conference is anticipated to showcase new products and technologies, which may positively impact NVIDIA's supply chain [4][42]. Group 3 - The report suggests a focus on cyclical sectors, emerging consumption, and low-positioned technology as the market enters a phase of style rebalancing [5][45]. - It emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand, particularly in new retail, e-commerce, and IP industries, to drive incremental consumer demand [5][45]. - The report highlights the potential for mergers and acquisitions, debt reduction, and sustained demand growth as key areas of focus for medium to long-term investment strategies [5][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies in the automotive and real estate sectors, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in these industries [8][11][12]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is undergoing significant changes, with a shift towards three distinct business models: Robotaxi operations, high-end manufacturing, and personalized brands. This evolution necessitates a reevaluation of traditional investment frameworks [4][7]. - The real estate sector is expected to experience a peak in debt restructuring in 2025, with companies possessing quality commercial assets likely to recover more swiftly through diversified strategies and asset management capabilities [8]. - The macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals, with U.S. economic data indicating resilience despite concerns over fiscal tightening under the Trump administration, which has impacted market sentiment negatively [1][19]. Summary by Sections Automotive Industry - The automotive sector is predicted to face a major framework adjustment, moving away from the traditional new car cycle focus. The next 5-10 years will be characterized by a "mobility revolution," particularly optimistic about the commercial viability of Robotaxi services [4]. - Companies will likely differentiate into three categories: Robotaxi operators, high-end manufacturers, and personalized brands, each requiring distinct valuation frameworks [7]. Real Estate Sector - The report suggests that 2025 may witness a peak in debt restructuring among real estate firms, with those having strong asset portfolios and diversified operations poised for recovery [8]. - Companies with quality holding properties and mature asset management capabilities are expected to lead the recovery process, leveraging REITs to restart financing channels [8]. Macroeconomic Overview - Recent U.S. economic data has been mixed, with non-farm employment figures slightly below expectations, yet not alarming enough to trigger recession fears. The market remains sensitive to fiscal policy changes under the current administration [1][19]. - The divergence in fiscal narratives between the U.S. and Europe is notable, with the U.S. leaning towards fiscal tightening while Europe is moving towards fiscal expansion, impacting market dynamics [1][19]. Fixed Income and Debt Instruments - The report discusses the issuance of convertible bonds by Yonggui Electric, highlighting its strategic focus on intelligent connectors and industry upgrades. The expected listing price for the convertible bond is projected between 127.77 and 142.08 yuan [3][27]. - The bond's protective features and moderate dilution impact are noted, with a recommendation for active subscription due to its favorable risk-return profile [27][28].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **communication industry** with a focus on **deep-sea technology** and its implications for offshore wind power and submarine cable sectors [3][4][6]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Government Support for Deep-Sea Technology**: The 2025 Government Work Report introduces "deep-sea technology," indicating significant future support for industries like offshore wind power and submarine cables [3][4]. 2. **Provincial Planning in Jiangsu**: Jiangsu Province has released a comprehensive plan for coastal and marine spatial development by 2035, emphasizing the construction of a 10 million kilowatt offshore wind power base [4][6]. 3. **Market Potential**: The report anticipates that more provinces will introduce policies related to deep-sea technology, enhancing the market potential for companies involved in this sector [3][4]. 4. **Submarine Cable Demand**: The demand for submarine cables is expected to rise due to the global expansion of AI technologies, exemplified by Meta's "Waterworth" project, which plans to lay over 50,000 kilometers of submarine cable [4][6]. 5. **Company Recommendations**: Companies such as **Zhongtian Technology** and **Hengtong Optic-Electric** are highlighted as key players in the deep-sea technology sector, with strong order backlogs and competitive advantages [3][4][6]. Financial Projections and Ratings - **Zhongtian Technology**: - Current share price: 14.36 CNY - EPS forecast for 2025: 1.34 CNY - PE ratio for 2025: 13x - Investment rating: Buy [5]. - **Hengtong Optic-Electric**: - Current share price: 16.15 CNY - EPS forecast for 2025: 1.68 CNY - PE ratio for 2025: 14x - Investment rating: Buy [5]. Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected progress on offshore wind projects, lower-than-expected submarine cable construction, and increased competition leading to reduced profitability [6]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of submarine cables in the context of AI-driven global data transmission, highlighting the technical challenges and the competitive landscape for domestic companies [4][6]. - The ongoing development of high-voltage power grids and smart infrastructure is expected to drive demand for specialized cables, further benefiting the recommended companies [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the defense and military industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report expresses continued optimism for the military industry, highlighting a 2.57% increase in the Shenwan Military Index (801740) compared to a 1.59% increase in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in an excess return of 0.98 percentage points [2][43]. - The 2025 government work report emphasizes "deep-sea technology" as a new emerging industry, which has positively impacted related stocks [3][43]. - The macro-level focus on completing the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to accelerate improvements in the industry's fundamentals [3][44]. - The report notes a slight decrease in financing buy-in amounts, but an increase in military ETF fund sizes and shares, indicating stable confidence from passive funds in the military sector [3][44]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shenwan Military Index increased by 2.57% during the week of March 10-14, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.98 percentage points [10][17]. - Since May 2024, the Shenwan Military Index has risen by 22.96%, while the CSI 300 Index has increased by 11.16%, resulting in an excess return of 11.8 percentage points [19][10]. - The engine sector performed the best this week, with significant gains from stocks like Baotai Co., which rose by 21.07% due to the "deep-sea technology" theme [24][10]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on traditional main battle equipment and high-elasticity sectors that will cross the "15th Five-Year Plan" cycle [45][47]. - Key companies to watch include: - Traditional Equipment: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft, and others [47]. - High Elasticity Directions: Commercial engines, materials, information technology, low-cost drones, and controlled nuclear fusion [47]. Valuation and Funding - As of March 15, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Military Index is 63.72, with a percentile rank of 86.27%, indicating a high configuration value despite some valuation increases [4][45]. - The report notes that passive funds have shown a net inflow of 949 million yuan into military ETFs, reflecting strong confidence in the sector [30][44].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Add" (Maintain) [1] Core Viewpoints - The government work report for 2025 officially includes "deep-sea technology" as a key area of emerging industries, marking its elevation to a national strategy [1] - The strategic value of deep-sea technology lies in economic security and geopolitical competition, with significant resources and military applications [4] - Future technological breakthroughs in deep-sea technology will focus on intelligence, localization, and ecological balance [4] - Investment opportunities are identified in deep-sea materials, equipment, and detection technologies, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies with high technological maturity and clear policy support [4] Summary by Sections Government Policy and Strategic Importance - Deep-sea technology has been integrated into the national top-level design framework, with policies supporting its development outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the "Deep Sea Law" [4] - The government aims to promote the safe and healthy development of deep-sea technology through national-level research projects and coordinated development across the entire industry chain [4] Technological Focus Areas - Key technological advancements will include the integration of AI in deep-sea data processing, the localization of core equipment and materials, and the balance between development and ecological protection [4] - Specific areas of focus include deep-sea engineering equipment, information technology, and special materials processing [4] Investment Opportunities - Significant potential for domestic substitution exists in deep-sea materials (titanium alloys), equipment (submersibles/drilling platforms), and detection technologies (acoustic communication) [4] - Recommended companies for investment include Baotai Co., Ltd., Zhongke Haixun, Hailanxin, China Marine Defense, Changying Tong, Dongfang Cable, and Deepwater Haina [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a surge in demand, with domestic component production expected to reach 50-55GW in March, a month-on-month increase of over 20% [3] - The report highlights the acceleration of the all-tab battery industrialization, with significant advancements in efficiency and technology [8] - The report emphasizes the positive changes and potential catalysts across various sectors within the power equipment industry, maintaining an overall "Recommended" rating for the sector [9] Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Sector - The report notes that the HJT companies have released a clear roadmap to improve component efficiency from 23.5% to over 25% [3] - The report anticipates a significant increase in distributed installation, expected to exceed 70% in the first half of the year [3] - It suggests focusing on companies like Tongwei Co., Aiko Solar, and Xinyi Solar due to their strong market positions [3] Energy Storage - The report indicates that the commercial energy storage market in China is projected to grow by 4GW/10GWh in 2025 [7] - It highlights the increasing acceptance of energy storage systems in Europe, driven by favorable policies and the need for self-sufficient power solutions [7] Wind Power - The report mentions that the first quarter of 2025 is expected to see a significant increase in wind turbine installations, driven by favorable policies and market conditions [6] - It suggests monitoring companies involved in wind turbine components, as they are likely to benefit from this growth [6] High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) and Digitalization - The report discusses the ongoing development of HVDC technology and its integration into AI applications within the power sector [8] - It highlights the potential for increased demand for AI solutions in the energy sector, suggesting a focus on companies like Southern Power Grid Technology [8] Lithium Battery Sector - The report notes the rapid industrialization of all-tab batteries, with significant advancements in production efficiency and technology [8] - It emphasizes the trend towards fast-charging batteries, with major players like CATL and BYD leading the way [8]

ERN DE STER 行业日报 | 北交所 市场震荡调整,深海科技亮相政府工作报告 证券研究报告 2025年03月14日 北交所市场点评 -- -20250313 ● 核心结论 行情回顾:1)指数层面:3月13日北证50 收跌-3.1%,成交额达419.7 亿 元,较昨日下跌 0.6 亿元。2)个股层面:当日北交所264家公司中 112家 上涨,152 家下跌,4 家涨停。其中涨幅前五的个股分别为:凯腾精工 (+30.0%)、克莱特(+30.0%)、美心翼申(+30.0%)、坤博精工(+30.0%)、 安徽风凰(+22.6%),跌幅前五的个股分别为:天铭科技(-12.5%)、华 原股份(-11.1%)、中泰航达(-9.7%)、浩森科技(-8.7%)、威博液压(-8.5%)。 新闻汇总:1)央行:根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况,择机 | 分析师 | | --- | | 曹森元 S0800524100001 | | 19821289688 | | caosenyuan@research.xbmail.com.cn | | 相关研究 | | 北交所:定向可转债审批加速,助力北交所再 | | -20250 ...

Group 1 - The company, Deepwater Haina (300961), has noted significant market attention on the "Deep Sea Technology" concept recently [1] - On March 15, 2024, the company established a joint venture, Huahong Haina Digital Industry (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd., with Shenzhen Kaihong Digital Industry Development Co., Ltd. and Shenzhen Haina Chuangzhan Technology Co., Ltd. to promote the development of an open-source Harmony ecosystem in environmental protection, water affairs, hydraulic, marine, and related municipal facilities [1] - The company also co-invested with Jiangsu Degao IoT Technology Co., Ltd. to establish a holding subsidiary, Nantong Haina Smart IoT Technology Co., Ltd., on May 31, 2023, focusing on research, manufacturing, and sales of intelligent equipment related to marine engineering and environmental monitoring [1] - Currently, the revenue from these new business areas constitutes a very low percentage of the company's main business income and will not have a significant impact on the company's performance [1]

Group 1: BC Equipment and Manufacturing Industry - BC is currently the most visible expansion direction, with leading manufacturers planning to add 40-65 GW/year of BC capacity from 2024 to 2027, alongside a significant increase from the existing 780 GW TOPCon upgrades [1] - BC technology offers significant equipment flexibility, primarily involving 2-3 laser processes and 1 coating process, with a notable increase in the use of LPCVD equipment [1] - Risks include slower-than-expected technological advancements in BC, reduced willingness to upgrade battery capacity, and potential market competition deterioration [1] Group 2: Banking Sector and Debt Market - Some commercial banks have recently sold bonds from OCI and AC accounts to realize floating profits, which may amplify market impacts in a volatile debt market [2] - The current selling behavior of banks is not expected to trigger a market panic, with short-term adjustments facing less pressure compared to long-term [2] Group 3: Policy and Economic Impact - Hohhot has introduced new childbirth subsidy details, with the maximum subsidy reaching 100,000 yuan per child, indicating a potential nationwide rollout of similar policies [4] - If extrapolated nationwide, the fiscal subsidy scale is estimated to reach 901 billion, 1,363 billion, and 1,825 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, still falling short of international standards [4] Group 4: Defense and Aerospace Industry - The 2025 Government Work Report highlights deep-sea technology for the first time, indicating a focus on deep-sea development and potential investment opportunities in acoustic and titanium materials [6] - Risks include accelerated competition among countries, potential underperformance in enterprise capacity expansion, and fluctuations in raw material costs [6] Group 5: Coal Industry - The coal sector has seen improved expectations, leading to a rise in stock prices, driven by high dividend styles, stable thermal coal prices, and optimized stock structures [8] - The bottom price expectation for coal is becoming clearer, with potential price increases if demand improves and inventory decreases [8] Group 6: Property Services Sector - The historical issues facing private property service companies have dissipated, with strong dividend attractiveness and sustainable cash flow [10] - The upcoming 2024 annual reports are expected to confirm high dividends and a vision for stable long-term development [10] Group 7: Tin Industry - The suspension of mining operations by Alphamin Resources in the Democratic Republic of Congo could lead to a significant reduction in global tin supply, potentially increasing tin prices above 300,000 yuan/ton [12] - The expected supply gap in 2025 may widen due to the suspension and slower-than-expected recovery of Myanmar's tin mines [12] Group 8: New Materials in Military Industry - Defense spending is projected to grow by 7.2% in 2025, indicating a recovery in demand for military materials and potential valuation recovery for upstream companies [13] - The military industry is at a turning point, with significant demand expected to be released in 2025 [13]