Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent upward trend in gold and silver prices, driven by market conditions and expectations regarding U.S. economic policy [1][2]. - On November 10, 2023, the most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 rose by $9.8, closing at $4,133.2 per ounce, marking a 0.24% increase [1]. - During the trading session, gold prices reached a three-week high of $4,155 per ounce, indicating strong market interest [2]. Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the potential end of the U.S. government shutdown may improve market risk appetite, but the anticipated economic impact could reinforce expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, providing significant support for precious metals [2]. - Despite limited demand for gold jewelry, the demand for gold allocation remains strong, as evidenced by a 4.3-ton increase in SPDR Gold ETF holdings on November 11 [2]. - UBS Group forecasts that gold demand in the next two years could reach its strongest level since 2011, with potential for gold prices to rise to $4,700 per ounce due to ongoing political and financial market risks [2]. Group 3 - On the same day, silver futures for December delivery increased by $0.67, closing at $51.075 per ounce, reflecting a 1.33% rise [3].

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silver: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals rose. The positive progress in the US government shutdown negotiation is expected to restart soon. Although it weakens the impact on the economy, it is beneficial to the release of short - term liquidity. After the official data is released, the market will continue to weigh the economic and Fed policy prospects. Precious metals currently lack a strong driver and may continue to build a high - level shock platform. The international gold price should focus on the resistance around $4150 per ounce [1] Other Key Points US Temporary Appropriation Bill Progress - The US Senate voted to pass the temporary appropriation bill and submitted it to the House of Representatives for review [1] - The US House of Representatives is expected to vote on the bill at 5 am Beijing time on Thursday [1] Fed Officials' Views - Fed Governor Milan: The possibility of the end of the government shutdown has not significantly changed the outlook. A 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in December is appropriate, and at least a 25 - basis - point cut should be made [2] - Fed's Musalem: The labor market is close to full employment and is currently cooling. The room for further policy easing is limited. Caution must be exercised [2] - Fed's Daly: There is no inflation pressure from labor costs. Policymakers need to keep an open mind about further interest rate cuts [2] Trade Agreement News - Foreign media said that Switzerland is close to reaching an agreement with the US, and the tariff rate will be reduced to 15%. Trump responded that he is discussing an agreement to lower tariffs with Switzerland, and the figures are not determined [2] - Trump: Close to reaching a trade agreement with India, which is very different from past agreements [2] China's Gold Production and Consumption Data - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 271.782 tons, an increase of 3.714 tons or 1.39% year - on - year. Imported raw material gold production was 121.149 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.94%. The total gold production from domestic and imported raw materials was 392.931 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.60% [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95%. Among them, gold jewelry consumption was 270.036 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.50%; gold bars and coins consumption was 352.116 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.55%; industrial and other gold consumption was 60.578 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.72% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market continues to run strongly. The end of the US government shutdown is expected to provide a liquidity buffer for the market, and the slowdown of US economic data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts, which enhances the monetary attribute of precious metals. However, the optimistic expectation of the government shutdown may weaken market risk - aversion demand and form resistance to the upward movement of gold prices. The weakening trend of the US dollar is expected to boost the precious metals trend in stages. Technically, the upward momentum of gold prices is increasing, with clear resistance and support levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 948.88 yuan/gram, up 12.9 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 11,880 yuan/kilogram, up 161 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of Shanghai gold are 130,346 hands, down 6,311 hands; those of Shanghai silver are 233,585 hands, down 9,632 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 110,361 hands, down 161 hands; those of Shanghai silver are 119,859 hands, up 17,973 hands [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 89,616 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 591,884 kilograms, down 18,094 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 950.3 yuan/gram, up 22.2 yuan; the spot price of silver is 11,903 yuan/kilogram, up 296 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is 1.42 yuan/gram, up 9.3 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is 23 yuan/kilogram, up 135 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings are 1,042.06 tons, unchanged; the silver ETF holdings are 15,088.63 tons, unchanged [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions are 266,749 contracts, up 339 contracts; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions are 52,276 contracts, up 738 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply and demand of gold are both 1,313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.84 tons in supply and 54.83 tons in demand. The total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces; the total annual global demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 30.84%, down 1.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 26.95%, up 0.19% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.98%, up 1.52%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 21.96%, up 1.49% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - China's gold consumption in the first three quarters of this year was 682.73 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95%. The increase in domestic gold ETF positions was 79.015 tons, a year - on - year increase of 164.03%, and the position at the end of September was 193.749 tons [2]. - Fed Governor Milan supports further interest rate cuts to prevent the weakening of the US economy in the future and advocates a faster pace than the traditional 25 - basis - point cut. San Francisco Fed President Daly said the US economy may be experiencing a decline in demand, but tariff - related inflation is currently under control, and the Fed should discuss whether to continue to cut interest rates on the basis of the 50 - basis - point cut this year with an "open mind" [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 64.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 35.9%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 23.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 22.7% [2]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - The daily RSI shows that the upward momentum of gold prices is increasing. The key resistance level for the London gold price is between 4,130 - 4,160 US dollars, and the strong support level is at 4,000 US dollars. The Shanghai gold 2512 contract is concerned about the range of 900 - 960 yuan/gram; the Shanghai silver 2512 contract is concerned about the range of 11,000 - 12,000 yuan/kilogram [2]

the first 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/11/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 人业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 AG2512 | | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 日期 内外盘金 银15点价 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 2025/11/10 格跟踪 | 4075. 52 | 49. 53 | 4084. 70 | 49.58 | 935.98 | 11719.00 | 933.23 | 11707.00 | | (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - The expected cash outflow from the US Treasury General Account, the increased probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, the provision of liquidity by the Fed through the Standing Repurchase Facility (SRP), geopolitical risks, and the continuous gold - buying by global central banks may support precious metal prices [1] Summary by Relevant Contents Precious Metal Market Data - **Futures and Spot Data**: For gold, on 2025 - 11 - 11, the Shanghai gold futures closing price was 933.02 yuan/gram, and the trading volume was 51,204. The spot Shanghai gold T + D closing price was 917.64 yuan/gram, and the trading volume was 37,088. For silver, the Shanghai silver futures closing price was 11,719 yuan/ten - gram, and the trading volume was 1,015,910. The spot Shanghai silver T + D closing price was 11,480 yuan/ten - gram, and the trading volume was 619,304. In the international market, the COMEX gold futures closing price was 4,013.40 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume was 242,570. The London gold spot price was 4,090.25 dollars/ounce. The COMEX silver futures closing price was 48.23 dollars/ounce, and the trading volume was 16,720. The London silver spot price was 50.04 dollars/ounce [1] - **Inventory and Position Data**: Gold inventory in Shanghai was 89,616 (in ten - grams), and the position of the Shanghai gold T + D was 254,730. The inventory of COMEX gold was 37,729,455.44 (in troy ounces), and the position was 300,451. Silver inventory in Shanghai was 609,978 (in ten - grams), and the position of the Shanghai silver T + D was 4,236,766. The inventory of COMEX silver was 479,104,695.08 (in troy ounces), and the position was 96,354 [1] - **Price Difference and Basis Data**: The spread between near - month and far - month gold futures was 1.10, and the basis (spot - futures) was 0.10. For silver, the spread between near - month and far - month futures was 31.00, and the basis was 11.00. In the international market, the spread between near - month and far - month gold futures was - 15.20, and the basis was - 33.15. The spread between near - month and far - month silver futures was - 0.73, and the basis was 0.71 [1] Important Information - The US government shutdown may continue for several more days. After the Senate passed a procedural vote on the temporary appropriation bill, the House's voting time is undetermined. Trump - appointed Fed governor Milan believes that the government shutdown will not affect his view of the US economy and advocates a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [1] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,580 - 3,860 and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 830 - 860, and the resistance level is around 950 - 1,000. For London silver, the support level is around 39 - 42, and the resistance level is around 50 - 55. For Shanghai silver, the support level is around 9,400 - 10,000, and the resistance level is around 11,600 - 12,400 [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices have continued to rise, achieving the largest increase in November, with spot gold reaching $4140.260 per ounce, up 0.61% on November 11 [1] - Silver prices have surged over 3%, briefly surpassing the $50 per ounce mark on November 11 [3] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have significantly increased, with several brands reporting higher prices for gold jewelry compared to the previous day, such as Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook both at 1308 CNY per gram [3][4] Group 2 - The domestic spot gold prices for various brands are as follows: Chow Tai Fook at 1279 CNY (+0.87%), Lao Feng Xiang at 1273 CNY (+0.39%), and others showing mixed changes [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, there were no significant events, risk preference fluctuations cooled down, and precious metal prices fluctuated. Gold and silver prices stopped falling and rebounded due to the slowdown in employment data. The US dollar index declined, and the RMB slightly depreciated. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4%, increasing the expectation of a rate cut in December. The US manufacturing PMI continued to contract, while the service PMI rebounded strongly. The US employment market showed signs of cooling, with a significant increase in corporate layoffs. Overall, this week, attention should be paid to the US Supreme Court's tariff ruling. With optimistic trade expectations and a cooling rate - cut expectation, the upward momentum of gold and silver is significantly weakened, and the prices will mainly fluctuate [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Review - **Precious Metal Price Movements**: - Shanghai Gold 2512 closed up 0.32%, reaching a maximum of 827.28; COMEX Gold closed up 0.28%, reaching a maximum of 4043.1 US dollars per ounce; Shanghai Silver 2512 closed up 0.65%; COMEX Silver closed up 0.13%. - London Gold Spot decreased by 0.06%, and London Silver Spot decreased by 0.68%. - The US dollar index fell 0.18%, reaching a maximum of 100.363, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB slightly depreciated by 0.04% [4][15]. - **Macroeconomic Data**: - The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4%, and the expectation of a rate cut in December increased. - The US 10 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, contracting for the eighth consecutive month, lower than the expected 49.5; the ISM service PMI was 52.4, rebounding strongly and reaching an eight - month high. - The US employment market showed signs of cooling. As of September, the number of corporate layoffs was nearly 950,000, and the number of government layoffs was nearly 300,000. In October, the number of Challenger corporate layoffs increased by 175.3% year - on - year, and the total number of layoffs this year exceeded 1 million [15][17][18]. - **Other Events**: - The US government has been shut down for 36 days, setting a record for the longest shutdown, but the possibility of it ending over the weekend increased. - The US Geological Survey included copper in the 2025 key minerals list for the first time [15][19]. 3.2 Weekly Review - Last week, there were no significant events, and the precious metal prices fluctuated and closed up. The US government shutdown affected the stock market, but Trump still expected the US stock market to reach a new high. The Bank of England's decision on interest rates and the US economic data were the same as in the last week's review [15][16]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Precious Metal Price Ratios**: Data on the ratio of domestic and foreign precious metal spot prices are presented, including the ratio of London gold and silver spot prices and Shanghai gold and silver spot prices [20]. - **Correlation with the US Dollar Index**: Charts show the relationship between London Gold Spot, London Silver Spot, and the US dollar index [22][23]. - **Correlation with Stock Indexes**: Charts show the relationship between precious metals and major global stock indexes such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100, etc. [24]. - **US Treasury Yield**: The US 10 - year Treasury yield fluctuated and fell to 4.38% [26]. 3.4 Position Data - **Shanghai Gold and Silver Top 20 Positions**: - For Shanghai Gold, the net position began to rebound, with both long and short positions increasing. This week, the long position was 165,261, a decrease of 2,214 from last week; the short position was 67,608, a decrease of 1,415 from last week; the net position was 97,653, a decrease of 799 from last week. - For Shanghai Silver, the net position continued to decrease, with both long and short positions decreasing. This week, the long position was 354,598, an increase of 35,258 from last week; the short position was 255,979, an increase of 3,609 from last week; the net position was 98,619, an increase of 31,649 from last week [29][32]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of September 23, the CFTC gold net position remained net long, with a slight increase in the net long position and an increase in both long and short positions; the CFTC silver net long position continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing. Due to the US government shutdown, the data was not updated [33]. - **ETF Positions**: - The SPDR Gold ETF position continued to stop falling and increased slightly. - The silver ETF position continued to decrease [36][38]. - **Inventory Data**: - The Shanghai Gold inventory continued to increase. - The COMEX Gold inventory continued to decrease. - The Shanghai Silver inventory stopped falling, and the COMEX Silver inventory continued to decrease [40][41][43]. 3.5 Summary This week, China will release a series of important economic data for October, the US will release the ADP employment report, and the non - farm data may be postponed. Fed officials will make frequent statements, and Trump may attend the US Supreme Court's key "tariff ruling" hearing. Overall, attention should be paid to the US Supreme Court's tariff ruling. With optimistic trade expectations and a cooling rate - cut expectation, the upward momentum of gold and silver is significantly weakened, and the prices will mainly fluctuate [15].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant rally on November 10, with gold and silver prices rising over 2% and 4% respectively, driven by factors such as declining consumer confidence in the U.S. and ongoing central bank gold purchases [1][4]. Price Movements - As of the report, the following prices and changes were noted: - London Gold: $4101.06, up 2.51% - COMEX Gold: $4113.5, up 2.59% - London Silver: $50.018, up 3.50% - COMEX Silver: $50.065, up 3.99% - Spot Platinum: $1582.50, up 2.59% - Spot Palladium: $1424.88, up 3.14% [2]. Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to 50.3 in November, down from 53.6 in October and significantly lower than the previous year's 71.8, indicating ongoing concerns about employment and inflation [3]. - The decline in consumer confidence is attributed to a 17% drop in personal financial conditions and an 11% decrease in expectations for business prospects [3]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks purchased a net total of 220 tons of gold in Q3, a 28% increase from Q2 and a 10% increase year-on-year, with total net purchases reaching 634 tons in the first three quarters of the year [4]. - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached a record high of 1313 tons in Q3, with a total value of $146 billion [4]. Investment Demand for Gold - Investment demand for gold surged to 537 tons in Q3, a 47% year-on-year increase, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, a weakening dollar, and investor fears of missing out [5]. - Gold ETF holdings increased by 222 tons in Q3, with a total inflow of $26 billion, contributing to a total increase of 619 tons (approximately $64 billion) in the first three quarters of 2025 [5]. - Analysts suggest that the ongoing liquidity environment and persistent risk aversion will support precious metal prices, with expectations for a rebound in gold and silver prices in the coming quarters [5].

Group 1 - Spot gold prices increased to $4090 per ounce, rising by 2.34% [1][2] - Spot silver prices rose by 3.65%, surpassing $50 per ounce, marking a nearly 4% increase [1][3] Group 2 - The highest price for gold reached $4095.771, while the lowest was $3997.198 [2] - For silver, the highest price recorded was $50.060, with a lowest price of $48.235 [3]

研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 11 月 10 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 4.人民币汇率:人民币兑美元窄幅波动，当前交投于 7.118 附近。 【重要资讯】 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场: 今天白天，贵金属强势上行，伦敦金上涨逾 75 美元，当前交 投于 4074 美元；伦敦银则站回 49 关口，当前交投于 49.65 美元附近。受外盘驱 动，沪金最终收涨 2%，报 935.98 元/克; 沪银主力合约最终收涨 2.85%，报 11719 元/千克。 2.美元指数: 美元指数小幅下行，当前交投于 99.55 附近。 3.美债收益率:10 年美债收益率高开低走，当前交投于 4.136%附近。 1.美国政府动态：10 日讯，美国参议院正式通过新的持续拨款法案，该法案 将为政府 ...