【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 贵金属波动剧烈，周线仍收涨 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-1-12 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 资料来源：Wind、国贸期货研究院 ◆ 展望后市：短期金银或维持偏强运行，但波动或仍会较为剧烈。本周建议关注美国CPI、特 朗普关税裁决、伊朗局势进展、美联储新任主席人选及美国关键矿产关税结果等一系列事件。 策略上，以逢低做多或卖浅虚看跌期权为主。 ◆ 中长期观点：我们认为贵金属牛市的底层逻辑依然稳固。美国联邦政府债务规模持续攀升将 不断加剧美元信用长期走弱风险，叠加美联储仍处于降息周期、全球地缘局势仍旧复杂、全球 央行购金延续等，都将会继续支撑黄金价格中枢继续稳步上移。 01 PART ONE 行情及基本面指标跟踪 周度观点摘要 黄金白银价格和金银比价 ◆ 上周金银剧烈波动，周线整体仍收涨。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）地缘政治风险升 温：元旦假期，美委局势急剧升级，且特朗普多次发 ...

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures prices surged to a new historical high of $4612 per ounce, marking a significant increase driven by rising geopolitical tensions and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - COMEX silver prices also rose, reaching $83.9 per ounce, with a daily increase of 5.7%, while domestic gold and silver futures in China saw increases of approximately 3% and 12%, respectively [1] - Central bank data indicates that China's gold reserves reached 74.15 million ounces (approximately 2306.323 tons) by the end of December 2025, marking the 14th consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will reach $4900 per ounce by December 2026, supported by the Chinese central bank's purchasing behavior [2] - JPMorgan has raised its gold price outlook, forecasting it will reach $5000 per ounce by Q4 2026, with a long-term target of $6000 per ounce [2] - UBS has adjusted its gold price targets for March, June, and September 2026 from $4500 to $5000 per ounce, attributing the recent price surge to a weaker dollar and ongoing geopolitical tensions [2] Group 3 - JPMorgan maintains its average silver price forecast at $40.1 per ounce for 2026, while Bank of America has a more optimistic outlook, suggesting silver prices could peak between $135 and $309 per ounce [3]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold futures reached a historic high, surpassing $4,612 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for precious metals as a safe haven [1]. Group 1: Precious Metals Price Movements - In the first complete trading week of 2026, both gold and silver futures prices continued their bullish trend, with gold and silver prices increasing by 3.96% and 11.72% respectively [1]. - Silver futures exhibited significant volatility, with a single-day increase of nearly 8%, a two-day cumulative rise exceeding 14%, and a subsequent two-day drop of over 7% [3]. - Goldman Sachs indicated that silver prices are expected to continue rising, but with higher volatility and uncertainty compared to gold [5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Precious Metals - Two main factors have intensified downward pressure on precious metal prices: the annual rebalancing adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which significantly reduced the weight of precious metals, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's increase in margin requirements for precious metal futures [10]. - The increase in margin requirements, particularly a 28.6% rise for silver, is expected to curb high-leverage and speculative trading [10]. - Despite facing short-term downward pressure, multiple institutions anticipate that both precious and industrial metal prices will have room for growth this year [9]. Group 3: Broader Market Context - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, aimed at normalizing monetary policy rather than stimulating economic activity, are likely to support metal prices, especially for precious metals and copper [12]. - Additionally, international oil prices have risen due to heightened geopolitical risks and unexpected decreases in U.S. crude oil inventories, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude prices increasing by 3.14% and 4.26% respectively [12].

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures prices surged, reaching a high of $4612 per ounce, marking a new historical peak after two weeks [1][2] - COMEX silver prices also increased, reported at $83.9 per ounce, with a daily rise of 5.7% [3] - Domestic precious metal futures continued to rise, with Shanghai gold futures up approximately 3% at 1031 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures up 12% at 20614 yuan per kilogram [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, driving up safe-haven demand for precious metals, while expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also increased following U.S. employment data [3] - China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, currently holding 7.415 million ounces (approximately 2306.323 tons), which is expected to support gold prices [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices could reach $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while JPMorgan has raised its forecast to $5000 per ounce by Q4 2026, with a long-term outlook of $6000 per ounce [4] Group 3 - The global central banks are adjusting their reserve structures, reducing reliance on U.S. dollar assets and viewing gold as a core tool to hedge against sovereign currency credit risks [4] - The World Gold Council reports that gold is expected to perform well in 2025, with potential price increases of 15% to 30% in 2026 based on current levels [4] - Morgan Stanley maintains its average silver price forecast at $40.1 per ounce for 2026, while Bank of America has a more optimistic outlook, predicting silver prices could peak between $135 and $309 per ounce [5]

Group 1 - Precious metal prices surged significantly, with spot gold rising by 1.87% to surpass $4,593 per ounce, marking a historical high [1][3] - Spot silver increased by over 4.5%, reaching approximately $83 per ounce, nearing its historical peak [1][3] Group 2 - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at ¥1,429 per gram, up by ¥19 from the previous day's ¥1,410 per gram [5] - Lao Miao's gold jewelry is now priced at ¥1,429 per gram, an increase of ¥22 from the previous day's ¥1,407 per gram [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the continued bullish trend in precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by geopolitical tensions and rising debt in developed economies [4] - Gold and silver futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange have increased by 3.96% and 11.72% respectively during the week, reflecting heightened market volatility [4] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen, with some brands reporting prices exceeding 1400 yuan per gram [4] Group 2 - Major gold jewelry brands in China, such as Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang, have seen their gold prices rise, with specific prices reported at 1406 yuan per gram for Chow Tai Fook, reflecting a daily increase of 1.01% [6] - The increase in gold prices has led to heightened trading risks, prompting major banks like Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to issue trading alerts and adjust rules for gold transactions [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that spot gold prices have surged to a new historical high of $4550 per ounce, marking a significant increase of over 0.9% [1][2] - As of the latest update, spot silver has also seen a notable rise, increasing by 2.8% [1][2] - Goldman Sachs has projected that gold prices will reach $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while Yardeni Research has raised its forecast for gold prices to $6000 per ounce by the same date, emphasizing strong market trends driven by macroeconomic and policy concerns [4] Group 2 - UBS has indicated that demand for gold from central banks and investors remains near historical highs, forecasting global central bank gold purchases to reach between 900 to 950 metric tons this year [4]

Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, continue their bullish trend in the first full trading week of 2026, with significant price increases driven by geopolitical tensions and rising market volatility [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - Gold and silver futures prices increased by 3.96% and 11.72% respectively during the week, reflecting heightened market demand due to geopolitical events and economic conditions [1]. - Silver futures exhibited extreme volatility, with a single-day increase of nearly 8%, a two-day cumulative rise exceeding 14%, and a subsequent two-day drop of over 7% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Goldman Sachs highlighted that silver lacks the demand support from global central bank reserves, making its price more sensitive to market liquidity changes, predicting continued price increases but with higher volatility compared to gold [5]. - The Bloomberg Commodity Index underwent an annual rebalancing, significantly reducing the weight of precious metals, which may trigger passive liquidation by index-tracking funds, adding downward pressure on gold and silver prices [7]. Group 3: Margin Adjustments - The CME Group raised the margin requirements for trading gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures for the third time in a month, with silver margins increasing by 28.6%, which typically curbs high-leverage and speculative trading [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite short-term downward pressures, multiple financial institutions anticipate that both precious and industrial metal prices will have upward potential this year [9]. - Goldman Sachs noted that potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, aimed at normalizing monetary policy rather than stimulating economic activity, could drive metal prices higher, particularly for precious metals and copper [11].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, including gold and silver, continue their bullish trend in the first full trading week of 2026, despite increased volatility and downward pressure on prices due to specific market factors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold and silver futures prices have both seen cumulative increases, indicating a continuation of the strong performance observed in 2025 [1] - Volatility in the precious metals market has noticeably intensified, particularly for silver, which is expected to face ongoing high volatility and uncertainty compared to gold [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Price Pressure - The Bloomberg Commodity Index initiated its annual rebalancing this week, significantly reducing the weight of precious metals, which analysts believe will trigger passive liquidation by index-tracking funds, adding to profit-taking pressure on gold and silver [1] - The CME Group has raised the margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures for the third time in the past month, with silver's margin increasing by 28.6%. Such substantial margin hikes typically curb high-leverage and speculative trading [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the short-term downward pressures, multiple financial institutions anticipate that both precious and industrial metal prices will have room for growth throughout the year [1]

Core Insights - The precious metals market has experienced significant fluctuations since the beginning of 2026, with rising prices for gold and silver attracting widespread attention [1] Group 1: Gold and Silver ETF Performance - As of January 7, 2026, all 14 gold ETFs in the market recorded gains of over 2%, with some like ICBC Gold ETF and Huaxia Gold ETF exceeding 2.5% [3] - The net asset value of gold ETFs has been increasing, with significant inflows noted, particularly in the last week where certain ETFs saw growth of over 10,000 shares [3] - The total management scale of ETFs tracking SGE gold reached 230.285 billion yuan, while those tracking Shanghai gold reached 23.682 billion yuan, marking further growth from the end of 2025 [3] Group 2: Market Volatility and Risk Warnings - Recent volatility in gold and silver prices has been attributed to fluctuating expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical factors, leading to increased volatility in precious metals [4] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented measures to mitigate risks, including limiting the maximum number of contracts for silver futures and adjusting margin requirements [4] - The fund company Guotai Asset Management has issued multiple risk warnings regarding the high premium of its silver futures product, indicating potential valuation corrections and risks of losses for investors [5] Group 3: Long-term Value of Precious Metals - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term strategic value of gold remains strong due to factors such as weakening dollar credit, ongoing central bank purchases, and expanding physical gold consumption [6] - Analysts predict that gold and silver will maintain a strong performance in the first half of 2026, although short-term price fluctuations are expected due to dollar volatility and monetary policy changes [6] - Investors are advised to remain rational and aware of market risks while considering precious metal investments, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation based on individual risk tolerance [6]