Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the U.S. government's "reciprocal tariff" policy, highlighting the unexpected expansion of the trade deficit and the potential economic consequences as the deadline for trade negotiations approaches [1][4][11]. Trade Data Summary - As of May, the U.S. goods trade deficit unexpectedly widened to $96.6 billion, exceeding market expectations of $86.1 billion, marking the highest trade deficit for the first five months of the year in history [2][5]. - The trade deficit has been primarily driven by a 5.2% decline in U.S. goods exports, which fell to $179.2 billion, the largest drop since the pandemic began [6]. - In contrast, some countries, such as Vietnam and Thailand, saw their exports to the U.S. surge by approximately 35%, reaching historical highs [6]. Economic Impact - The U.S. economy experienced its first contraction since 2022, with a GDP decline of 0.5% on an annualized basis, attributed to increased imports and decreased government spending [3][14]. - The first quarter saw imports rise by 37.9%, the fastest growth since 2020, negatively impacting GDP by nearly 4.7 percentage points [14]. - The core PCE price index rose by 2.68% year-on-year in May, surpassing expectations and reaching its highest level since February 2025 [14]. Trade Negotiation Status - The U.S. has only reached a trade agreement with the UK, which remains largely a framework with many details yet to be finalized [8]. - Negotiations with other major trading partners, including Japan and India, have stalled, with concerns over potential additional tariffs hindering progress [8][9]. - The U.S. government has requested trade partners to submit their best offers amid slow negotiation progress, indicating urgency in reaching agreements [10]. Employment and Economic Risks - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021, indicating increasing job market challenges [15]. - The credit card delinquency rate reached 3.05%, the highest since 2011, while housing market pressures are mounting due to affordability and inventory issues [15]. - The World Bank forecasts a global economic growth rate of 2.3% for 2025, the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis, reflecting widespread economic weakness [15].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market showed mixed results on June 27, with coking coal futures experiencing a price increase of approximately 2.24%, reaching a high of 1420.0 yuan/ton [1] - The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was reported at 73.26%, a slight decrease of 0.16%, while the average daily output of coking coal was 51.67, down by 0.11 [1] - The coastal coal transportation price index (CBCFI) was reported at 719.19 points, reflecting a 0.1% increase, although market demand is expected to decrease towards the end of the month [1] Group 2 - The fourth round of price reductions for coking coal has been fully implemented, putting pressure on the market, with port coking coal costs reaching around 1300 yuan/ton [2] - Coking enterprises are reducing production due to profit constraints and environmental regulations, while the apparent demand for the five major steel types is declining, limiting growth in raw material demand [2] - From a long-term perspective, the current price level is considered relatively low, with more potential for upward movement than downward risk, suggesting that investors may consider establishing long positions after price corrections [2]

Group 1: Currency Market Insights - The European Central Bank's council member Knot stated that the possibility of another interest rate cut by the ECB cannot be ruled out [2] - Bank of England Governor Bailey indicated that the strengthening of the British pound is related to uncertainties in the U.S., with interest rates still on a gradual downward path [2] - The onshore and offshore RMB against the USD briefly broke the 7.16 mark, reaching a new high in over seven months [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Trade - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May, with exports experiencing the largest decline since the pandemic began; first-quarter GDP was revised down [3] - Market volatility has led to a surge in foreign exchange trading volume for Citigroup's hedge funds [3] - The New Taiwan Dollar against the USD broke the 29 mark, reaching a high not seen in over three years [3] Group 3: Central Bank Perspectives - Federal Reserve officials expressed mixed views on potential interest rate cuts, with Daly suggesting that a fall in rates this autumn looks promising, while Collins indicated that a July cut may be premature [3] - The Hungarian central bank projected an adjusted core inflation rate of 4.7% for 2025 and 4.0% for 2026 [3] - The South Korean Ministry of Finance announced that it will further issue foreign exchange stabilization bonds in the second half of the year if necessary [3]

Group 1 - In May, the U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened by 11.1% to $96.6 billion, exceeding market expectations of $86.1 billion [1] - U.S. exports fell by 5.2% to $179.2 billion, marking the largest decline since the pandemic began, primarily due to a significant drop in industrial goods like crude oil [1] - Imports remained nearly unchanged at $275.8 billion, following a record decline in the previous month, indicating a potential impact on second-quarter economic growth [1] Group 2 - U.S. factory orders for core capital goods increased by 1.7%, the largest gain since the beginning of the year, with core capital goods shipments rising by 0.5% [2] - Durable goods orders surged by 16.4%, the highest increase since 2014, driven by a significant rise in commercial aircraft orders, with Boeing receiving 303 aircraft orders in May [2] - The number of individuals filing for continued unemployment benefits reached a new high since November 2021, indicating increased difficulty for unemployed Americans in finding new jobs [2]

美国5月商品贸易逆差意外扩大 出口创疫情以来最大降幅 金十数据6月26日讯，美国5月商品贸易逆差意外扩大，出口出现自疫情爆发以来的最大降幅，进口几乎 没有变化。美国商务部数据显示，商品贸易逆差增长11.1%，至966亿美元，高于市场预期。商品出口 下降5.2%，至1792亿美元，原油等工业供应品的出货量急剧下降。进口几乎没有变化，为2758亿美 元。贸易逆差扩大表明，贸易对第二季度经济增长的贡献可能低于最初的预期。一季度GDP报告还凸显 贸易与库存影响的脱钩。通常情况下，进口商品会进入仓库或直供商店，在GDP账户中形成至少部分抵 消效应。但库存当季为GDP贡献2.59个百分点，远不足以弥补贸易平衡恶化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The impending "reciprocal tariffs" set to take effect on July 9, if no trade agreement is reached between the U.S. and other countries, is causing a significant increase in the U.S. trade deficit, with potential record levels anticipated for the first five months of the year [1][2]. Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit has surged, reaching $138.3 billion in March and dropping to $61.6 billion in April, with projections indicating that the total deficit for the first five months of the year could exceed $643 billion, surpassing previous records during the pandemic [2][3]. - Countries like Vietnam and Thailand have reported record exports to the U.S., with both countries seeing a 35% year-on-year increase in exports [2]. - The trade dynamics have shifted, with Asian suppliers rushing to ship goods to the U.S. ahead of the tariff deadline, contrasting with historical patterns where shipments peak before the holiday season [2]. Negotiation Progress - Ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and major trading partners are stagnating, with India rejecting U.S. requests for lower tariffs on agricultural products due to concerns over domestic farmers and genetically modified foods [4]. - Japan and South Korea are also engaged in negotiations with the U.S., focusing on tariffs affecting key industries such as automobiles and steel [4][5]. - The EU is considering retaliatory measures if negotiations with the U.S. do not yield satisfactory results, emphasizing the importance of sovereignty in decision-making [4][5]. Economic Recession Risks - The current tariff situation poses a significant threat to the U.S. economy, with analysts predicting a 60% chance of recession this year, which could lead to a substantial decline in the S&P 500 index [6][7]. - Rising consumer delinquency rates and a decrease in housing starts indicate potential economic slowdown, with credit card delinquency reaching 3.05%, the highest since 2011 [6][7]. - The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) has downgraded its GDP growth forecast for member economies from 3.3% to 2.6% due to trade tensions, highlighting the broader economic impact of the ongoing trade disputes [7].

Group 1 - The EU is preparing to implement additional tariff countermeasures against the US as the July 9 deadline approaches, aiming to create a "real threat" to the US [1][2] - The EU plans to impose tariffs on US goods worth €95 billion and is also considering measures targeting the service sector, including taxes on US tech companies [2][3] - The EU's response to US tariffs includes a potential increase of up to 50% on $210 billion worth of US imports, which has been postponed to July 14 to allow for negotiations [3] Group 2 - The outlook for US-Japan tariff negotiations is uncertain, with Japanese officials expressing concerns about unresolved issues and a lack of consensus [4][5] - Japan's government is coordinating a visit by its economic minister to the US for further discussions on tariffs, indicating ongoing efforts to reach an agreement [5] Group 3 - The US trade deficit is projected to reach $91 billion in May, with the total deficit for the first five months of the year nearing $643 billion, surpassing previous records [6] - Asian countries, including Vietnam and Thailand, have seen significant increases in exports to the US, with Vietnam's exports rising by 35% year-on-year [6] Group 4 - The uncertainty surrounding the US tariff policy has led to a significant decline in foreign direct investment in the US, dropping from $79.9 billion in Q4 2024 to $52.8 billion in Q1 2025 [7] - Economic experts warn that the unpredictability of tariff policies may hinder corporate investment decisions and negatively impact economic growth [7]

【环球时报综合报道】"今年前5个月美国的贸易逆差或将创下历史同期最高纪录。"彭博社23日报道 称，随着美国"对等关税"暂停期限的临近，囤货效应推升美国与亚洲国家的贸易逆差持续扩大。但进展 缓慢的关税谈判，也为这些亚洲国家对美出口的前景带来了不确定性。 日美之间也尚未达成任何协议。据雅虎财经24日报道，两名日本政府消息人士周二透露，日本首席贸易 谈判代表赤泽亮正正筹备最早于6月26日启程的第7次美国之行，旨在终结当前损害日本经济的关税措 施。 彭博社说，对美出口历史性的增长将体现在本周美国发布的5月份对外贸易数据中，并可能使美国政府 与亚洲各经济体就美国所谓"对等关税"的谈判复杂化。 公开信息显示，目前，美国与亚洲主要贸易伙伴间的关税谈判依然进展缓慢，甚至陷入僵局。《印度时 报》23日报道称，担心对农民造成不利影响以及出于对美国转基因食品相关的担忧，印度政府拒绝了美 国玉米和大豆等农产品以低关税进入印度市场的要求。消息人士表示，谈判已陷入僵局。 据报道，越南、泰国5月出口均创下历史同期最高纪录。其中，越南和泰国对美出口同比均激增35%。 另据《韩国先驱报》23日报道，韩国6月前20天出口额同比增长8.3%，其中 ...

亚洲主要经济体出口创纪录增长 报道称，据过去几周发布的数据显示，越南、中国台湾和泰国5月对美出口均创历史新高。其中，越南 和泰国对美出口同比激增35%，中国台湾对美出口更是飙升近90%。 值得注意的是，韩国5月对美出口也接近纪录水平，此外周一公布的海关数据显示，韩国6月前20天出口 额同比增长8.3%，其中对美国出口增长4.3%。 亚洲经济体对美国出口的大幅增长模式颠覆了历史规律。 在特朗普暂停所谓"对等关税"截止日期临近之际，亚洲多个经济体对美国出口飙升，进而是的美国与亚 洲地区的贸易逆差持续扩大。 6月23日，据报道，越南、中国台湾和泰国均在5月份创下对美出口新纪录，显示企业正争分夺秒将货物 运抵美国，以规避可能的高额关税。 这轮出口激增预计将在本周美国5月贸易数据中显现，市场预测美国5月贸易逆差将达910亿美元，推动 2025年迄今逆差总额接近6430亿美元，远超历史同期纪录。 有分析指出，如果特朗普在7月初对亚洲各经济体征收历史性高关税，目前的出口激增态势可能迅速逆 转，从而冲击整个地区的经济增长。亚太经合组织已因贸易紧张局势将今年GDP增长预期从3月的3.3% 下调至2.6%。 目前，市场预测显示， ...

智通财经APP获悉，随着进口商赶在美国总统特朗普设定的"对等"关税最后期限之前囤货，美国对亚洲的贸易逆差正在扩大。过去几周发布的数据显示，越 南、中国台湾省和泰国5月份对美出口均创下纪录。 周一公布的数据显示，韩国上月对美出口接近创纪录水平，且6月初似乎再次增长。 这些创纪录数字打破了正常的历史模式，即贸易往往在下半年更为强劲，因为亚洲供应商赶在圣诞节假期之前向美国发货。美国从7月初开始征收新关税的 威胁正迫使企业尽快将货物装上船、运往美国。 美国贸易逆差今年创下新高 如果特朗普像他所威胁的那样，在7月初对亚洲各国征收历史性的高关税，出口激增的局面可能很快就会逆转，破坏整个地区的经济增长。 上个月，亚太经济合作组织(APEC)因贸易紧张而大幅下调了对今年GDP增长的预测，预计21个成员的经济体将增长2.6%，低于3月份预测的3.3%。 亚洲对美国的出口在关税之前飙升 5月份，越南和泰国对美出口均同比增长35%，而台湾对美出口飙升近90%。这些创纪录的增长可能在本周美国公布5月份数据时开始显现出来，并可能使特 朗普与亚洲各经济体之间围绕美国将设定的关税水平的谈判复杂化。 由于企业试图应对华盛顿方面关税和贸易政策 ...