行业下行周期往往是检验企业韧性的试金石。当前，碳酸锂市场正在上演一场韧性生长的新故事。 期货工具的价值，本质是金融工具与实体产业的深度共振。碳酸锂期货用"风险分散"的逻辑重构了中小 企业的生存法则，用"价格发现"的功能升级了产业的决策方式。在新能源产业迈向高质量发展的历程 中，拥抱期货市场不再是选择题，而是企业从"被动承受" 转向 "主动管理"的必答题。 当多数企业选择收缩规模时，厦门一家专注于锂矿开发及贸易的中小企业（下称Z公司）利用期货工具 锁定生产利润，获得现金流支撑，实现逆周期扩张。这种"别人收缩我扩张"的差异化策略，其实是利用 期货市场，将"价格风险"转化为"竞争优势"。对Z公司而言，期货套保不再是"锦上添花"，而是关乎生 存的"刚需配置"。可以说，期货市场打破了"价格下跌=行业衰退"的线性思维，让具备风险管理能力的 企业能够"危中寻机"，重塑行业生存法则。 期货工具的价值，不仅在于风险对冲，更体现在成本结构优化与战略决策升级上。在长协订单模式下， 贵州天美锂能新材料有限公司（下称天美锂能）曾因"锁量不锁价"的签单模式，在价格下行周期承受高 额采购成本，而参与期货套保后，其通过期货市场提前锁定价格， ...

Core Viewpoint - The leadership changes at Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, including the appointment of Wang Ming as the new president, are expected to influence the bank's strategic direction and operational efficiency, particularly in asset management and risk management areas [1][2][5]. Leadership Changes - Wang Ming has been appointed as the deputy secretary of the party committee and nominated as the president and vice chairman of Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, previously serving as the vice president of Shanghai Bank [1]. - Other appointments include Zhang Lingling and Zhang Yuehong as vice presidents, both promoted from within the bank [1]. - The former president, Gu Jianzhong, has returned to Shanghai Bank as the party secretary and chairman [1]. Wang Ming's Background - Wang Ming has a long tenure at Shanghai Bank, with experience in various roles including risk management and asset management [2][3]. - His career saw a significant transition in 2018 when he moved into senior management, overseeing critical areas during challenging regulatory changes in asset management [2][3]. Risk Management Focus - Under Wang Ming's leadership, Shanghai Bank has shifted its focus from total asset quality metrics to more detailed structural indicators, emphasizing proactive risk management [4]. - The bank has actively managed its non-performing loans, achieving a reduction in the non-performing loan ratio to 1.18% by the first quarter of 2025 [3][4]. Financial Performance - Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank reported a significant increase in its asset scale, surpassing 1.5 trillion yuan by the first quarter of 2025, with a net profit of 35.64 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.58% year-on-year growth [8][9]. - The bank has implemented a robust dividend policy, planning to distribute a total of 41.66 billion yuan in cash dividends for 2024, indicating strong financial health and investor confidence [9]. Market Position - Both Shanghai Bank and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank have shown impressive stock performance, with over 60% growth in 2024, positioning them as leaders in the banking sector [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the innovative approach of using large language models (LLMs) to analyze earnings call transcripts, enabling analysts to assess the sentiment of CEOs regarding future business outlooks and their potential impact on stock prices [1][2]. Group 1: Advanced Earnings Call Analysis - LSEG MarketPsych Transcript Analytics integrates LSEG's data resources with MarketPsych's natural language processing (NLP) capabilities, providing sentiment analysis and thematic data for over 16,000 publicly listed companies [2][3]. - The solution identifies over 1,000 themes and 4,000 event types within earnings call transcripts, allowing for detailed sentiment classification and analysis [3][4]. Group 2: Application Scenarios - Companies with high sentiment scores in earnings calls tend to outperform those with lower scores in the following month, indicating a correlation between CEO sentiment and stock performance [6]. - The built-in ESG sentiment classifier can dynamically monitor ESG-related sentiments, providing risk warnings for companies with low ESG sentiment scores [6][7]. - The analysis system can also quantify the frequency and sentiment of key negative terms mentioned by executives, aiding in risk management and credit risk monitoring [7].

Group 1 - The event titled "Futures Serving High-Quality Development of the Real Economy and Training Activities for Bulk Commodity Industry in Zhejiang" was held in Hangzhou, focusing on risk management and trading strategies in the futures market [1] - Experts and representatives from over a hundred companies discussed topics such as hedging practices, options and rights trading, basis trading, and risk control in hedging [1] - The president of Beijing Heyirong Group shared that companies need strong risk management capabilities to navigate increasing market uncertainties due to changes in information flow, channel structures, and financial attributes [1] Group 2 - The general manager of Zhejiang Zheqi Industrial Co., Ltd. emphasized the importance of using derivatives for risk management to control uncertainties and achieve strategic goals [2] - The Chief Risk Officer of Aolan Agriculture highlighted the need for companies to establish a robust risk control framework to ensure compliance and operational stability during hedging activities [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange is enhancing its service mechanisms to help more companies strengthen their risk management capabilities through participation in the futures market, with plans to upgrade its "Enterprise Risk Management Plan" by 2025 [2]

合规经营是维系税收秩序、保障国家财政收入的基石，更是推动税收事业高质量发展的核心要义。甘肃省税务局以信用建设为笔、风险防控为墨、监督问效 为卷，精心勾勒企业合规经营新蓝图，多管齐下引导企业在合规轨道上稳健前行。 信用赋能 激活合规经营"动力源" 为助力企业向好发展，甘肃税务部门通过分级分类服务、政策精准推送等举措，推动形成"守信激励、失信惩戒"的税收综合治理格局，引导更多市场主体诚 信纳税、合规经营。 涉税专业服务机构一手牵着纳税企业、一手连着税务部门，在助力经营主体依法处理涉税业务等方面发挥着重要作用。今年以来，武威市凉州区税务局强化 与财政、市场监管等部门的沟通联系，健全完善部门协同监管机制，加大信息共享力度，积极开展涉税专业服务机构信用评价，切实提升涉税专业服务机构 监管服务质效。通过举办培训座谈会、开展上门走访、税企交流群答疑等方式，强化宣传辅导，有效提升机构从业人员业务水平，同时积极推进"信用+风 险"的监管机制，提升管理的智能化、精细化水平，有效预防涉税专业服务机构违法违规行为。 白银市白银区税务局为A级纳税人提供全方位政策支持和服务保障。为A级纳税人定制"绿色通道"专享服务；组建专家辅导团队，定 ...

招股书显示，公司持续增加研发投入。报告期内，公司产生的研发开支分别为1410万元、1570万元及 1650万元，分别占同期收入的3.5%、2.4%及2.6%。公司预计研发开支可能会持续增加。 客户集中度较高 公司收入依赖数量有限的客户或业务合作伙伴，面临客户集中风险。根据招股书，公司客户主要为国内 保险公司。集团分别与71家、80家及75家保险公司进行合作。报告期内，集团来自前五大客户的总收入 分别为2.236亿元、4.551亿元及4.997亿元，分别占公司总收入的55.3%、69%及79.2%。 报告期内，公司的收入主要来自风险管理金融服务，该部分业务产生的收入分别为3.114亿元、5.359亿 元及5.742亿元，分别占总收入的77%、81.2%及91%。 根据灼识咨询报告，以2023年收入计，白鸽在线在中国场景类保险数字化风险管理解决方案提供商中市 场份额为4.4%。中国场景险市场经历持续增长，市场规模(就保费收入而言)从2019年的511亿元增长至 2023年的794亿元，并将保持稳定的增长趋势。公司在解决方案设计及定制方面与上游保险公司及下游 场景合作伙伴紧密合作，为生态系统参与者提供数字化风险管理 ...

对于出口企业的相关应对措施，林龙安有以下几点建议： 一是持续优化市场布局。一方面积极开拓新兴市场，如东盟、拉美、中东等，降低对美国单一市场的依 赖，可通过建立海外销售网络和参加国际展会的方式，提升市场占有率。比如，部分企业通过在东盟国 家设立销售办事处，直接面向当地市场，取得了良好的市场反馈。另一方面，重视国内市场，实现"外 贸+内销"的战略转型，将部分出口产品转内销，满足国内消费升级需求。 二是产业升级与创新。企业要通过加大技术创新投入，提升产品附加值，降低对价格竞争的依赖，增强 产品的刚性需求。比如，一些企业通过引入人工智能、智能制造等前沿技术，优化生产流程，提高生产 效率，提升产品竞争力。 经济观察报 记者 老盈盈 5月18日，大湾区进出口商业总会会长林龙安在"2025清华五道口全球金融论坛"上接受媒体采访时表 示，尽管中美暂缓关税政策落地，但美方政策在90天后仍然存在"不确定性"，依赖单一市场的出口模式 不可持续；此外，企业出海合规成本在不断攀升，需提升规则应对能力，这方面可善用香港的国际化专 业服务体系来进行支撑。 基于当前形势，林龙安对下半年大湾区外贸走势持谨慎乐观的态度。 三是强化供应链管理。林 ...

Core Viewpoint - Small-cap index enhancement strategy products have shown significant excess returns in 2023, with nearly 80% of products achieving excess returns, particularly in small-cap categories [1][2]. Performance Summary - As of May 16, 2023, the highest unit net value growth rate for off-market index enhancement funds exceeded 30%, with small-cap index enhancement products outperforming benchmarks by over 8% [2]. - On the on-market side, enhancement strategy ETFs also performed well, with the highest net value growth rate exceeding 20%, and specific ETFs like the招商中证2000 enhancement strategy ETF achieving an excess return of 11.32% [2]. Market Environment - The active performance of small-cap stocks this year, particularly in indices like 中证2000 and 中证1000, has provided more opportunities for excess returns due to their higher growth potential and volatility [3]. - Increased market attention on small-cap stocks has led to a continuous inflow of funds into related index components, driving stock price increases and creating a favorable investment environment for enhancement strategy products [3]. Quantitative Models - This year, factors such as reversal, dividend, and growth have performed well, contributing to excess returns for traditional multi-factor combinations [3]. - Many institutions have adopted machine learning models to capture high-frequency, non-linear stock volatility characteristics, enhancing the stability of returns [3]. Strategy Outlook - For the second half of the year, it is crucial to closely follow index styles and minimize significant deviations, optimizing quantitative models to improve sensitivity to market changes [5][6]. - Risk management remains essential, with a focus on monitoring macroeconomic data, policy changes, and industry dynamics to reduce portfolio risk exposure [6]. - The emphasis will be on enhancing the predictive capability of Alpha models while maintaining a stable style constraint in index enhancement product management [6].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a high Return on Equity (ROE) of 20.3%, boosted by extraordinary gains from the acquisition of a joint venture stake, while the operating ROE was 18.4% [10][20][51] - Total assets contracted by 2% due to a revaluation of Bolivia's balance sheet [20][46] - Net interest income increased by 4.3%, with a resilient Net Interest Margin (NIM) of 6.2% despite a year-over-year contraction in asset yields [22][54] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Loan growth was robust in wholesale banking and short-term loans, with an overall increase of 1.5% in average daily balances [21][12] - Non-performing loans (NPLs) contracted, with the NPL ratio standing at 5.1% [21][48] - Fee income grew by 16%, driven by transactional activity at Yape and BCP [22][50] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Peru's GDP grew by 3.9% year-over-year in Q1 2025, supported by private spending and low inflation [25][6] - Inflation remained within the Central Bank's target range at 1.7% year-over-year in April [26] - High-frequency economic indicators such as car sales and imports are growing rapidly, indicating a recovery in private consumption [25][26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on modernizing core systems, expanding digital capabilities, and enhancing client journeys across various business lines [10][14] - Sustainability is deeply integrated into the company's strategy, with initiatives aimed at financial inclusion and environmental risk management [14][103] - The company aims to achieve a structural ROE ambition of 18% by 2026 while expanding access and generating shareholder value [103] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in Peru's macroeconomic fundamentals and the potential for growth despite global uncertainties [5][15] - The outlook for Peru's economy remains positive, with expectations of around 3% growth in 2025, assuming global recession risks are contained [15][56] - Management is closely monitoring global developments, including trade tensions and their potential impact on commodity prices [8][16] Other Important Information - The company announced a dividend payout of PEN 40 per share, reflecting strong solvency and support for long-term growth plans [13][24] - The company achieved 5.4% of recent adjusted revenues from new businesses, progressing towards a 10% target by 2026 [11][54] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance and ROE Expectations - Analyst inquired about the reasons for not updating guidance despite strong Q1 results and the potential for higher sustainable ROE levels [59] - Management indicated that while they expect to exceed current guidance, global uncertainties, particularly related to tariffs, are a concern [62][63] Question: Cost of Risk and Model Revisions - Analyst asked about the drivers behind the reduction in cost of risk and the potential for further model revisions [71] - Management confirmed that improvements in the macroeconomic environment and adjustments in credit policy have contributed to lower expected losses [74] Question: Loan Growth Dynamics - Analyst questioned the slow loan growth despite strong economic indicators and asset quality improvements [76] - Management explained that loan growth typically lags behind economic recovery and expressed confidence in future acceleration [81][86] Question: Sensitivity to Interest Rates - Analyst requested clarification on the company's sensitivity to interest rate changes [90] - Management provided details on the expected impact of a 100 basis point decline in rates on NIM, emphasizing limited risk [94] Question: Lending Opportunities through Yape - Analyst inquired about lending growth through the Yape platform and the focus on individual versus SME lending [96] - Management highlighted that individual lending is the current focus, with plans to expand into SME lending as capabilities develop [100]

苯乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 source： 【核心矛盾】 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 7400-8000 | 35.25% | 94.8% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 7600-770 0 | | 理 | 下跌 | 多 | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低资 ...