Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations today, with the CSI A500 index slightly declining. The A500 ETF from E Fund (159361) saw a trading volume exceeding 3 billion yuan and a net subscription of nearly 200 million shares [1] - Over the week, the CSI A50 index increased by 0.5%, while the CSI A500 index rose by 0.02%, and the CSI A100 index fell by 0.05% [1] Index Performance - The weekly performance of the indices is as follows: CSI A500 index at 0.02%, CSI A100 index at -0.05%, and CSI A50 index at 0.5% [3] - The rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are: CSI A500 at 16.5x, CSI A100 at 16.2x, and CSI A50 at 17.9x [3] - The historical performance over the past month shows the CSI A500 index increased by 7.1%, the CSI A100 by 7.7%, and the CSI A50 by 6.6% [5] Long-term Trends - Year-to-date performance indicates the CSI A500 index has risen by 17.9%, the CSI A100 by 16.1%, and the CSI A50 by 12.0% [6] - Over the past year, the CSI A500 index has increased by 46.2%, the CSI A100 by 40.3%, and the CSI A50 by 36.2% [6] - Since their base dates, the CSI A500 index has risen by 443.3%, the CSI A100 by 332.5%, and the CSI A50 by 75.6% [6] Future Outlook - China Galaxy Securities expresses optimism regarding domestic incremental capital, suggesting that both domestic and international liquidity is likely to remain favorable, leading to a probable continuation of a fluctuating upward trend in A-shares [1]

Core Viewpoint - The significant stock price movements in A-shares on September 19 were primarily driven by the adjustments in the FTSE China A50 Index, which took effect after the market closed on that day [1][6]. Group 1: Stock Movements - Several stocks, including Xinyi Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, WuXi AppTec, and BeiGene, experienced notable price increases during the closing auction period [2][1]. - Conversely, stocks such as China Nuclear Power, China Unicom, and Wanhua Chemical saw substantial declines, with China Nuclear Power dropping nearly 2 percentage points [4][1]. Group 2: Index Adjustments - The FTSE Russell announced changes to the FTSE China A50 Index, which included the addition of stocks like Xinyi Technology and WuXi AppTec, while removing China Nuclear Power and China Unicom [6][1]. - The FTSE China A50 Index consists of the 50 largest stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges and undergoes quarterly reviews [6][1]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The adjustments in the FTSE indices prompted index funds and institutional investors to rebalance their portfolios, leading to the observed stock price volatility [1][6]. - The market showed a clear divergence in performance, with sectors like photolithography, lithium mining, and engineering machinery gaining strength, while others faced significant corrections [2][1]. Group 4: Broader Market Context - The overall A-share market experienced a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.30% and the Shenzhen Component down by 0.04% [2][1]. - In the Hong Kong market, stocks such as Fourth Paradigm and SF Holding also exhibited significant movements, influenced by similar index adjustments [7][1]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Chinese stock market may see further prosperity driven by valuation and liquidity factors, maintaining a positive outlook on both A-shares and H-shares [7][8]. - Focus areas include core growth sectors in Hong Kong, particularly in internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and technology [8][1].

来源：中信信托 本周摘要 Weekly Summary 上周，A股上周重拾涨势。成交额、换手率、融资余额等反映市场情绪的指标指向当前风险偏好上升并处于较高位置。在此背景下，成长 风格整体跑赢稳定风格。由于归属科技成长范畴的电子行业和房地产、农林牧渔等传统周期行业录得上周涨幅前三，或反映当前市场主 线仍在寻求不同板块间的平衡以及在前期涨幅相对较小的行业中寻求机会。预计A股短期波动提升的同时上涨空间将打开。美国方面仍是 交易美联储降息节奏的加快。美元持续下行、美国国债收益率回落，以及美股和黄金的上涨，或反映市场对于美联储将实施货币宽松行 为的定价。报告维持前期观点，关注美国经济"类滞胀"风险及后续降息空间或仍将受限。 MACROECONOMICS 国内外宏观经济 国内方面 国内风险偏好升温，A股重拾涨势，但短期波动料将加大。我国上周先后发布8月贸易、通胀、社融信贷等重要月度经济数据。3季度以 来，我国经济数据表现冷热不均，除了出口项连续数月超预期，生产、需求以及通胀数据难言强劲。本次贸易、通胀和社融信贷数据的 主要特征是出口增速回落，CPI通胀同比增速重回负增；另一方面，PPI通胀降幅收窄，主要源于前期"反内卷" ...

博星证券研究所所长邢星表示，大盘巨量换手，加速风险释放。深圳德讯证券顾问有限公司投资顾问刘 奎军表示，获利回吐压力集中释放导致指数波动加大，短期市场将维持震荡。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential resumption of interest rate cuts is expected to boost global risk appetite and significantly improve liquidity expectations in emerging markets, leading to favorable conditions for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 1: Market Impact - Analysts predict a dual benefit of risk appetite recovery and foreign capital inflow for A-shares and Hong Kong markets [1] - The current market liquidity is gradually easing, with expectations that the central bank will maintain ample market liquidity, which will positively influence stock and bond market performance [1] Group 2: Sector Opportunities - From a structural opportunity perspective, sectors such as technology growth, low valuation dividends, and certain recovering sectors are worth attention [1] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to show a "policy-driven + profit improvement" support leading to a fluctuating upward trend in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant trading volume, with a total turnover exceeding 3 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity and investor confidence despite a slight decline in major indices [2][3]. Market Performance - On September 18, the A-share indices saw a high of 3899.96 points before closing lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.15% to 3831.66 points, the Shenzhen Component down 1.06% to 13075.66 points, and the ChiNext down 1.64% to 3095.85 points [2]. - The total trading volume reached 31,666 billion yuan, marking the fourth highest in A-share history, with a notable increase of 7,636 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2]. Investor Sentiment - Despite the market's pullback, there remains a strong buying interest, suggesting that bullish sentiment has not been completely diminished [3]. - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit down was low, indicating that core stocks are still attracting capital [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the recent market fluctuations do not signify the end of the bullish trend, with new positive factors emerging, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a rebound in public fund issuance [3]. - Goldman Sachs maintains an "overweight" rating on A-shares and H-shares, predicting an 8% and 3% upside respectively over the next 12 months, and encourages investors to buy on dips [4]. Institutional Investment Trends - Domestic public funds have significantly increased their equity exposure, with cash ratios at a five-year low, while insurance companies have raised their stock holdings by 26% this year [5]. - Foreign investment in A-shares has reached a cyclical high, with hedge funds recording the highest monthly inflow in recent years [5]. Potential for Future Growth - There is substantial potential for increased institutional investment in the Chinese stock market, as current allocations to equities are significantly lower than in developed and emerging markets [6]. - If the institutional holding ratio in A-shares were to rise to the average levels of emerging or developed markets, it could lead to an influx of 14 trillion to 30 trillion yuan into the market [6].

Market Overview - On September 18, the A-share market experienced a wide fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3899 points and closing at 3831.66 points, down 1.15%[2][8] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13075.66 points, down 1.06%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.64%[8][9] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 31,670 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3][14] Sector Performance - Strong performers included automotive services, tourism hotels, pharmaceutical commerce, and consumer electronics, while sectors like securities, internet services, software development, and non-ferrous metals lagged[3][8] - Over 80% of stocks declined, with notable inflows in tourism hotels, automotive services, and pharmaceuticals, while sectors like securities and internet services saw significant outflows[8][10] Valuation and Investment Strategy - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 15.80 and 50.16, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments[3][14] - The government is focused on consolidating economic recovery, with supportive policies for consumption and real estate, which are expected to bolster market stability[3][14] Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to present new investment opportunities amid fluctuations, with a recommendation for investors to remain cautious and avoid blind chasing of highs[3][14] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as semiconductors, consumer electronics, wind power equipment, and automotive services[3][14]

9月18日，A股三大股指在小幅低开后相继翻红，沪指盘中一度逼近3900点。今日凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至 4.00%-4.25%之间。这是美联储自2024年12月以来的首次降息，也预示着美联储新一轮降息周期的开启。 新的降息周期之下，A股市场又将迎来哪些机会？ 回溯2000年至今，美联储共出现4个降息周期，分别为2001年1月-2003年6月、2007年9月-2008年末、2019年8月-2020年3月中旬，以及2024年9月至当年12 月。除周期内独特的触发因素，这四次降息周期基本是在经济增长放缓或通胀率低于目标的情况下启动的。其中，第三次降息周期开始于2019年7月末， 共计两轮。第一轮在2019年8月到10月，美联储在短短三个月的时间里连续降息3次，累计幅度75个基点。同期沪指下跌0.12%；第二轮在2020年3月，美 联储在计划外紧急会议上连续大幅降息，最终宣布降息100个基点。降息期间，沪指下跌6.12%。 最近的一次降息周期开始于2024年9月。2024年9月19日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调50个基点至4.75%-5.00%，降息幅度远超市场预期的 25B ...

芯片产业链高开高走，科创芯片股领涨，寒武纪A股早盘成交额第一，一度重返1500元上方，再次超越 贵州茅台，登顶"股王"宝座。截至13：14，寒武纪股价有所回落，跌0.83%。 0:00 9月18日，A股三大指数早盘低开后震荡拉升，截至13:09，沪指涨0.36%，盘中逼近3900点，深证成指 涨0.75%，创业板指涨0.36%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View On September 17, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month rose, with IF up 0.8%, IH up 0.2%, IC up 1.26%, and IM up 1.25%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. The trends of different contracts in terms of trading volume, open interest, basis, and positions of the top 20 member institutions vary. The trend intensities of IF and IH are 1, while those of IC and IM are 1.68850. Important drivers include diplomatic news, Fed's interest - rate cut, and the performance of the A - share market [1][2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 8,988 lots, IH by 5,233 lots, IC by 2,247 lots, and IM by 23,931 lots. The total open interest of IF decreased by 2,680 lots, IH increased by 4,021 lots, IC decreased by 10,820 lots, and IM decreased by 579 lots [2]. - **Closing Price and Basis**: For example, the closing price of IF2509 was 4,553.2 with a basis of - 2.18 points; the closing price of IH2509 was 2,956.2 with a basis of 3.42 points; the closing price of IC2509 was 7,252.4 with a basis of - 7.64 points; the closing price of IM2509 was 7,547 with a basis of - 7.81 points [1]. - **Positions of the Top 20 Member Institutions**: The changes in long and short positions of different contracts vary. For instance, in IF2509, long positions decreased by 12,990 and short positions decreased by 13,237 [6]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of IF and IH are 1, and those of IC and IM are 1.68850. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [7]. 3.3 Important Drivers - Diplomatic news: Regarding Sino - US high - level interactions and the TikTok ban, relevant departments have provided information [7]. - Fed's Interest - Rate Cut: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, emphasizing employment downside risks and expecting two more cuts this year [7]. - A - Share Market Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% to 3,876.34 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.95%. The A - share market had a total trading volume of 2.4 trillion yuan, up from 2.37 trillion yuan the previous day [7].