2025 年，双创板块（科创板 + 创业板）凭借新质生产力的强劲赋能，成为国内市场耀眼的主线。作为双创板块核心缩 影的科创创业50指数(931643)，以 "跨市布局 + 硬科技聚焦" 的独特优势，交出了亮眼答卷。站在2025年末的时间节 点，这场"科技盛宴"是否已近尾声？2026年 "十五五" 规划开局之年，双创板块又将迎来哪些新机遇？本文将回顾双创 板块2025年的表现，并对2026年的行情做出展望。 一、2025 年复盘：硬科技领衔，双创板块"产业牛"深化 2025年双创板块成为引领 A 股成长风格的核心力量。科创创业50指数全年涨幅高达64.32% ，大幅跑赢沪深300 （18.21%）、中证A500（22.78%）等大盘宽基指数（截至2025.12.30）。市场关注度与流动性同步升温，成为板块强 势的重要佐证。2025 年，科创创业50指数的成交额相较2024年大幅增长120.68%，充分彰显了市场对双创板块硬科技 核心资产的认可。 图：双创板块大幅跑赢大盘宽基 （1）产业周期上行，盈利能力提升：双创板块聚焦的硬科技赛道技术突破与业绩落地形成良性循环，成为板块上涨 的核心驱动力。受益于全球竞争力提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a high-growth player in the hardware industry, leveraging cost reduction and brand strength to create "high-end cost performance" [1]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 29% in revenue and 59% in net profit from 2019 to 2024, showcasing its robust growth even in a challenging real estate environment [9][47]. - The growth sources are analyzed from three perspectives: product strategy focusing on cost reduction and popular products, channel expansion through offline and online sales, and a market strategy that emphasizes high-end cost performance [9][10][48]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 35.95 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 7.06 billion yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 33 [2][7]. - The company expects to maintain a steady growth trajectory, with revenue forecasts of 45.25 billion yuan in 2026 and 56.53 billion yuan in 2027, alongside net profits of 9.42 billion yuan and 12.37 billion yuan respectively [2][7]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 37.8% in 2025 to 39.7% in 2027, reflecting ongoing cost control and efficiency improvements [2]. Growth Drivers - The company’s growth is driven by its ability to reduce costs through increased self-production and a high proportion of standard parts, which enhances operational efficiency [10][55]. - The product mix includes a strong focus on basic hardware, which has seen a CAGR of 64% from 2019 to 2024, significantly contributing to revenue growth [48]. - The company has successfully transitioned from increasing the number of distributors to enhancing the quality of existing distributors, leading to substantial growth in single-store sales [9][10]. Market Positioning - The company adopts a "high-end cost performance" strategy, effectively competing against foreign brands and private labels, thus capturing market share from both segments [9][10]. - The brand has received multiple prestigious design awards, enhancing its competitive edge in the hardware sector [9][10]. Production Capacity and Efficiency - The company has significantly increased its production capacity, with plans for a new facility expected to enhance its ability to produce core components like hinges and guides [55][61]. - The implementation of automated production processes has led to a substantial increase in output per employee, particularly in basic hardware [63]. Research and Development - R&D expenditures have risen from 29 million yuan in 2019 to 111 million yuan in 2024, indicating a commitment to innovation and product development [42][45].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market closed 2025 with the Hang Seng Index rising by 27.77%, marking its best annual performance since 2017 [1] - Among the constituents of the Hang Seng Index, China Hongqiao surged by 203.72%, leading the gains, followed by Zijin Mining at 162.29%, and SMIC at 124.69% [1][2] Group 1: Performance Highlights - China Hongqiao's stock price reached 32.620 with a year-to-date increase of 203.72% [2] - Zijin Mining's stock price was 35.660, reflecting a year-to-date rise of 162.29% [2] - SMIC's stock price stood at 71.450, with a year-to-date increase of 124.69% [2] - Hansoh Pharmaceutical increased by 113.33% year-to-date, with a stock price of 36.080 [2] - Pop Mart's stock price was 37.700, showing a year-to-date rise of 111.46% [2] - Innovent Biologics saw a year-to-date increase of 108.33%, with a stock price of 76.250 [2] - Chow Tai Fook's stock price was 12.390, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 100.16% [2] - China Biologic Products had a stock price of 6.180, with a year-to-date rise of 98.71% [2] - JD Health's stock price was 55.500, showing a year-to-date increase of 97.51% [2] - China Life's stock price stood at 27.380, with a year-to-date increase of 96.60% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The performance of the top stocks reflects four main themes: cyclical resources, hard technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and niche consumption [1] - Stocks like China Hongqiao and Zijin Mining benefited from global inflation and industrial demand [1] - SMIC represents the core of domestic substitution and technological self-reliance [1] - Companies like Hansoh and Innovent are being valued for genuine innovation and international pricing [1] - Niche consumption sectors, represented by Pop Mart, Chow Tai Fook, and JD Health, demonstrate strong vitality even in a weak recovery environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - New Guangyi (301687.SZ), a leading company in specialty membranes, has been well-received in the market upon its listing, with a peak increase of 285% and a transaction amount exceeding 1 billion yuan. The company raised 638 million yuan for functional material project development, highlighting its strong market position and growth potential in high-performance specialty materials [2]. Group 1: Company Overview - New Guangyi specializes in high-performance specialty materials, particularly anti-overflow adhesive membranes and strong resistance specialty membranes, holding a monopoly in the niche market of anti-overflow adhesive membranes. The company has established deep partnerships with several top global flexible printed circuit board (FPC) manufacturers [2][3]. - Since its establishment in 2004, New Guangyi has transitioned from general functional adhesive films to focusing on specialty membrane materials for FPC core processes, breaking the technological monopoly of foreign companies in high-end FPC materials [3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The company has developed a comprehensive technical system with 15 core technologies across five categories, including raw material synthesis and coating process technology, which has created a significant technological moat [3][4]. - Innovations in the casting process have improved the uniformity of membrane thickness to micron-level precision, and the melt blending control technology allows for repeated use of products at high temperatures without performance degradation [4][6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - New Guangyi exhibits characteristics of a "small but beautiful" enterprise, achieving high profitability and asset return rates despite a smaller revenue scale. The gross profit margins for core products have shown a steady increase from 31.76% in 2022 to 32.44% in Q3 2025 [8][9]. - The company has a net asset return rate (ROE) of 13.88% as of September 30, 2025, significantly outperforming competitors, indicating strong financial health and operational efficiency [9]. Group 4: Market Position and Client Relationships - New Guangyi has established a solid position in the supply chain, being recognized as a core supplier by major FPC manufacturers and receiving multiple awards for its contributions [7][8]. - The company has optimized its customer structure, reducing reliance on its top five clients from 69.64% in 2022 to 52.88% in 2024, which enhances its stability and reduces risks associated with customer concentration [12][13]. Group 5: Future Growth Prospects - The functional membrane materials market in China is expected to grow rapidly, driven by demand in new display, renewable energy, and environmental protection sectors. New Guangyi has begun to expand into the renewable energy materials sector, with a revenue contribution of 12.59% in the first nine months of 2025 [13][14]. - The synergy between new energy materials and existing strong resistance specialty membranes allows for efficient resource utilization and lower marginal production costs, indicating significant growth potential for the company [14][15].

来源：纪要逻辑社 Q：长存公司近期盈利表现如何？盈利大幅改善 的核心驱动因素是什么？ A：长存公司近期盈利实现显著提升，核心驱动因素是行业景气周期下产品价格的大幅上调，推 动毛利 率和净利润快速增长。具体来看，25年 Q3毛利率已达38%，Q4预估可进一步攀升至 47%，距离海外龙 头50%-60%的水平仅一步之遥。同时，严格的成本管控和上半年资本支出缩 减带来的折旧优势，也为 盈利改善提供了支撑。 尽管前三季度净利仍亏损19.6亿，但招股书预测 全年将实现20-30亿利润，其中 25年Q4单季利润 预期高达70-80亿，产品成本刚性使得所有涨价都能直接转化为利润。 Q：长存公司未来业绩增长的核心动力有哪些？ 全球存储市场格局对其有何影响？ A：长存公司未来业绩增长主要依赖两大动力： 一是加速扩产以匹配市场需求，应对全球存储供 需紧 张的格局；二是客户构成多样化，目前服务器业务收入占比已从个位数跃升20%-30%，业 务结构实现 重大转变。从行业环境来看，市场分析认为未来三年全球存储供需或将持续紧张，这 一格局将支撑存 储产品价格持续看涨，为公司业绩增长提供有力支撑。此外，AI服务器需求激 增，叠加三星、美光 ...

逐光硬科技，A股前十大IPO背后的资本叙事 2025年的A股资本市场，硬科技无疑是最耀眼的时代注脚。 摩尔线程、沐曦股份的股价在科创板开盘后上演"直线飙升"的狂欢，天有为作为东三省的"独苗"在主板稳健起航，这些镌刻着"国产替代"鲜明印记的企 业，不仅以高发行价强势跻身年度前十大IPO榜单，更在背后串联起超百家投资机构的"逐光之路"。 Wind数据显示，摩尔线程、沐曦股份、天有为、优优绿能等十家企业凭借高发行价跻身前列。 融中整理发现，这些项目背后，背后汇聚了超百家投资机构的身影。 在这份长长的投资机构名单中，联想创投上演帽子戏法，分别投资了摩尔线程、沐曦股份、昂瑞微电子。 此外，红杉中国、前海母基金、深创投、建银国际、中关村科学城、万石创投、海达投资、哈勃投资、丰年资本、追远创投、小米、中信证券投资、图灵 资管、中卫颐和、泰达科投等投资机构分别拿下两家。 这份年度榜单，绝非简单的资本市场融资答卷，而是一段段资本与硬科技企业相互成就、穿越技术攻坚"死亡谷"的成长史诗。而这十家发行价"王者"项 目，也勒出A股资本市场的融资新图景。 融中财经整理发现，在2025年A股前十大IPO（按发行价计）的资本版图中，联想创投 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Changxin Technology's IPO acceptance signals a clear indication of a significant storage cycle expected in 2025-2026 [1] - The IPO aims to raise up to 29.5 billion yuan, focusing on upgrading manufacturing lines and DRAM technology, which will trigger a wave of equipment procurement in the upstream supply chain [1] - The AI-driven demand for computing power is expected to exacerbate the "storage wall" issue, with the DRAM market projected to see continuous revenue growth starting in 2025, potentially lasting until 2029 [1] Group 2 - The semiconductor equipment sector is positioned at a rare historical juncture, benefiting from multiple cycles including AI innovation, inventory adjustments, and domestic substitution demands [2] - The global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are projected to reach $133 billion in 2025, marking a 13.7% year-on-year increase, with further growth expected in subsequent years [2] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) has shown strong performance, with the highest maximum increase and lowest maximum drawdown among major semiconductor indices since 2018 [5][6] Group 3 - The semiconductor equipment sector is anticipated to be a crucial technology theme in 2026, combining strong certainty and elasticity [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Changxin Technology's IPO acceptance signals a clear indication of a significant storage cycle expected in 2025-2026 [1] - The IPO aims to raise 29.5 billion yuan, focusing on upgrading manufacturing lines and DRAM technology, which will trigger a wave of equipment procurement in the upstream supply chain [1] - The AI-driven demand for computing power is expected to exacerbate the "storage wall" issue, with the DRAM market projected to see continuous revenue growth starting in 2025, potentially lasting until 2029 [1] Group 2 - The semiconductor equipment sector is positioned at a rare historical juncture, benefiting from AI innovation, inventory cycles, and domestic substitution demands across various segments [2] - The global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales are projected to reach $133 billion in 2025, marking a 13.7% year-on-year increase, with further growth expected in subsequent years [2] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) has shown strong performance, with the highest maximum increase and lowest maximum drawdown among major semiconductor indices since 2018 [5][6] Group 3 - The semiconductor equipment sector is anticipated to be a crucial technology theme in 2026, combining strong certainty and elasticity in investment opportunities [6]

元禾璞华管理合伙人陈大同（右二）现身强一半导体上市仪式 强一半导体（2015 年成立） 是国内稀缺的、掌握自主 MEMS 探针技术并实现规模化生产的企业，主营晶圆测试核心耗材探针卡。 公司已与境内超 370 家半导体全产业链企业合作，产品覆盖 CPU、GPU、存储芯片等多品类测试环节。 元禾璞华 2021 年投资强一，助力其拓展 DRAM、HBM 等高端测试市场，剑指全球探针卡行业领军地位。 一、敲钟时刻：305 亿市值定格国产突破荣光 2025 年 12 月 30 日，上海证券交易所掌声雷动，强一股份正式登陆科创板，成为万众瞩目的 "半导体探针卡第一股"，更以科创板第 600 家上市企业的重 磅身份，为资本市场年终收官画上浓墨重彩的一笔。 开盘股价飙至 276.82 元 / 股，最终收于 235.51 元，176.78% 的惊人涨幅，撑起 305.13 亿元的市值高峰。 这串闪耀的数字背后，是国产探针卡打破海外垄断的扬眉吐气，是硬科技从追赶到领跑的热血跨越，更是一位创业者十年磨一剑的坚守勋章。 二、十年铸剑：周明的破壁之路 时间回溯到 2015 年，半导体产业国产化浪潮初起，周明带着 20 余年行业积淀，在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant investment opportunities in the domestic GPU sector, particularly focusing on the success of companies like Strong One Co., Ltd. (强一股份) and its role in the semiconductor testing market, especially with its probe cards [5][10][15]. Group 1: Company Performance and Market Position - Strong One Co., Ltd. has seen a remarkable increase in its market value, reaching 34.6 billion RMB after its IPO, with a price surge of 213% on its first trading day [5][10]. - The company reported revenues of 254 million RMB, 354 million RMB, and 641 million RMB for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of nearly 60% [10]. - Strong One's net profit grew from 15.62 million RMB in 2022 to 233 million RMB in 2024, marking a 14-fold increase over three years [10]. Group 2: Competitive Advantage and Technology - Strong One Co., Ltd. specializes in MEMS probe cards, crucial for testing semiconductor wafers, and has achieved the ability to mass-produce cards with a pitch of 45μm or less, catering to advanced GPU and high-performance processor manufacturing [6][7]. - The company has become the ninth largest semiconductor probe card manufacturer globally in 2023 and is projected to rise to sixth place in 2024, highlighting its rapid ascent in the industry [7][11]. - The probe card market in China is still in its early stages, with Strong One capturing less than 5% of the global market share despite the domestic market exceeding 10% of the global total [10]. Group 3: Strategic Partnerships and Future Growth - Strong One's primary client is a globally recognized chip design company, which significantly contributes to its revenue, accounting for over 80% of its income in recent years [7][10]. - The company is also focusing on the domestic replacement of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, which are critical for AI applications, and is developing MEMS sample cards for DRAM and NAND Flash [8][11]. - The surge in demand for AI models and the corresponding need for advanced GPUs and testing solutions position Strong One as a key player in the evolving semiconductor landscape [11][15].