英国国债开盘走低，10年期国债收益率上涨5个基点至4.62%。 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Major Asset Morning Report" released by the macro team of the research center of Heyian Futures on August 1, 2025, presenting the performance of global asset markets [1]. Global Asset Market Performance Bond Yields - **10 - year Treasury Yields**: Yields of major economies showed different changes on July 31, 2025. For example, the US was at 4.376% with a latest change of 0.004%, a one - week change of - 0.022%, a one - month change of 0.028%, and a one - year change of 0.124%. Japan was at 3.958% with a latest change of 0.015%, a one - week change of 0.041%, a one - month change of 0.075%, and a one - year change of - 0.534% [2]. - **2 - year Treasury Yields**: The US 2 - year Treasury yield on July 31, 2025, was 3.860% with a latest change of - 0.050%, a one - week change of 0.030%, a one - month change of - 0.090%, and a one - year change of - 0.630%. Japan was at 0.817% with a latest change of - 0.006%, a one - week change of - 0.027%, a one - month change of 0.074%, and a one - year change of 0.471% [2]. Exchange Rates - **USD against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: On July 31, 2025, the exchange rate of USD against the Brazilian real was 5.600 with a latest change of 0.52%, a one - week change of 1.45%, a one - month change of 3.54%, and a one - year change of 0.26%. Against the South African rand, it was 18.218 with a latest change of 1.22%, a one - week change of 3.33%, a one - month change of 4.00%, and a one - year change of - 0.94% [2]. - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB was at 7.200 on July 31, 2025, with a latest change of 0.04%, a one - week change of 0.63%, a one - month change of 0.41%, and a one - year change of - 1.03%. The offshore RMB was at 7.209 with a latest change of - 0.03%, a one - week change of 0.78%, a one - month change of 0.54%, and a one - year change of - 1.10% [2]. Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On July 31, 2025, the S&P 500 was at 6339.390 with a latest change of - 0.37%, a one - week change of - 0.38%, a one - month change of 0.96%, and a one - year change of 14.11%. The German DAX was at 24065.470 with a latest change of - 0.81%, a one - week change of - 0.95%, a one - month change of 0.55%, and a one - year change of 29.68% [2]. - **Emerging Economies' Stock Indices**: The Malaysian stock index was at 1513.250 on July 31, 2025, with a latest change of - 0.74%, a one - week change of - 1.76%, a one - month change of - 2.31%, and a one - year change of - 7.14%. The Australian stock index was at 8999.022 with a latest change of - 0.18%, a one - week change of 0.22%, a one - month change of 1.87%, and a one - year change of 9.63% [2]. Credit Bond Indices - Credit bond indices of different regions and levels showed various changes. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.06%, a one - week change of 0.43%, a one - month change of 0.27%, and a one - year change of 5.64% [2][3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing price of A - shares was 3573.21 with a decline of 1.18%. The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4075.59 with a decline of 1.82% [4]. Valuation - The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 13.19 with a环比 change of - 0.20. The PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 26.89 with a环比 change of - 0.10 [4]. Risk Premium - The risk premium of the S&P 500 (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) was - 0.66 with a环比 change of 0.01. The risk premium of the German DAX was 2.16 with a环比 change of 0.05 [4]. Fund Flow - The latest value of the A - share fund flow was - 1635.89, and the 5 - day average was - 973.63 [4]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19360.35, with a环比 change of 917.56 [4]. Main Contract Premium/Discount - The basis of the IF contract was - 18.59, with a premium/discount rate of - 0.46% [4]. Treasury Futures Trading Data - The closing price of the T00 Treasury futures was 108.485 with a rise of 0.16%. The closing price of the TF00 was 105.725 with a rise of 0.08% [5]. - The R001 fund rate was 1.5634% with a daily change of - 5.00 BP. The R007 was 1.5806% with a daily change of - 3.00 BP [5].

Core Points - The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds has increased by 1 basis point to 3.095% [1] Group 1 - The rise in yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards long-term Japanese government debt [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", the intraday view is "shock - bullish", and the overall view is "shock" due to the weakening of the manufacturing PMI in July [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is "shock - bullish", the medium - term view is "shock", and the reference view is "shock". It is expected that Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, short - term is within one week, medium - term is from two weeks to one month. The short - term, medium - term, and overall views are "shock", and the intraday view is "shock - bullish". The core logic is the weakening of the 7 - month manufacturing PMI [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose yesterday. The 7 - month Politburo meeting mentioned implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, leading to an increase in the expectation of interest rate cuts. After continuous corrections since July, the 1 - year Treasury bond yield has returned to near the policy rate, triggering the anchoring effect of the policy rate, causing Treasury bond futures to bottom out and rebound. The 7 - month manufacturing PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics is 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity and insufficient effective domestic demand. The weak performance of the manufacturing PMI increases the expectation of future monetary easing, which is beneficial to Treasury bond futures [5].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The UK bond market experienced fluctuations in yields during July, with notable increases in long-term bond yields despite a slight decline at the end of the month [1]. Yield Movements - The 10-year UK government bond yield fell by 3.4 basis points to 4.569%, with a cumulative increase of 8.0 basis points in July [1]. - The 2-year UK bond yield decreased by 1.5 basis points to 3.861%, with a total rise of 4.4 basis points for the month [1]. - The 30-year UK bond yield dropped by 3.9 basis points to 5.376%, accumulating a rise of 9.7 basis points in July [1]. - The 50-year UK bond yield fell by 2.8 basis points to 4.785%, with a cumulative increase of 15.5 basis points during July [1]. Yield Spread - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year UK bonds decreased by 2.015 basis points to +70.015 basis points, with a total increase of 3.975 basis points in July [1].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields have further declined, indicating a shift in the bond market dynamics [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Changes - The 10-year Treasury yield has decreased by 4.2 basis points, reaching 4.336% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield has fallen to 3.928% [1]

美国国债收益率在通胀数据公布后跌幅收窄，10年期国债收益率最新下跌3个基点，报4.348%。 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index increased by 0.56%, currently at 99.439 points before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond narrowed to less than 2.8 basis points, reported at 4.3481%, while the 2-year Treasury yield rose by 1.6 basis points, falling below 3.89% [1] Group 2 - Spot gold decreased by 0.76%, currently at $3301 [2] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.23%, the Dow Jones remained roughly flat, the Nasdaq increased by 0.43%, the biotechnology index rose by 1%, the Philadelphia semiconductor index increased by 1.2%, the banking index rose by 0.5%, and the Russell 2000 index increased by 0.9% [2]

Group 1 - The yield on Germany's 10-year government bonds decreased by 0.3 basis points to 2.706%, showing a W-shaped low-level fluctuation during most of the day [1] - The yield reached a daily low of 2.674% at 16:25 Beijing time, following the release of the US ADP employment report and GDP data, before rising to a daily high of 2.715% at the beginning of the US stock market [1] - The yield on the 2-year German bonds increased by 1.2 basis points to 1.954%, trading within a range of 1.929% to 1.960% during the day [1] Group 2 - The yield on the 30-year German bonds remained roughly unchanged at 3.204% [1] - The spread between the 2-year and 10-year German bond yields decreased by 1.495 basis points to +74.860 basis points [1]

美国30年期国债收益率跌10个基点，报4.86%。 ...