证券研究报告 | 2025年06月06日 反内卷语境下重读资本周期 资本周期：经典案例和新思考 资本周期分析框架通过供给端指标预判行业变化，为投资者提供了把握市场 节奏的有效工具。框架初步关注资本开支和行业集中度等核心指标，揭 示行业供给变化如何影响未来回报。投资实践中，应重点监测企业资本 开支与盈利数据的匹配度，判断行业是否处于过度投资阶段。当行业资 本开支持续增加而盈利前景不明朗时，往往预示着供需错配和产能堆积 风险，投资者应适当降低相关行业配置比例。相反，当行业经历充分出 清、资本开支降至低位而盈利开始企稳时，则是逆势布局的良机。 企业生命周期的不同阶段决定了投资策略的差异化选择，二次成长企业往往 比初次成长公司提供更佳的风险收益比。企业上市后 ROIC 通常呈现先下 降后上升的 U 型走势。关注经历市场洗礼后出清，通过业务转型或模式 创新实现二次成长的企业，其往往已建立稳固的市场地位和竞争壁垒。 在实际配置中，可通过筛选经历过完整周期调整、估值回归合理区间且 开始展现新增长动能的公司，构建兼具防御性和成长性的投资组合。 历史案例表明，行业繁荣往往隐藏着危机，投资者应在资本扩张高峰期保持 警惕，在行业低 ...

6月5日下午，5位央企"工匠"代表身着所在岗位的工作服、带着各自的"看家本领"亮相国新办中外记者 见面会上，对外讲述他们的拿手绝活。他们既有航天一线工人、石油开采工人，还有锻造厂工人、高铁 工人和电网工人。 在非精密环境中，如何实现相当于头发丝1/20的微米级精度控制；从石头缝里挤油，如何练就看电流就 能判断井下状况等开采石油绝活；每天面对1250摄氏度高温活件，如何做到不出现有米粒大缺陷；参与 高铁从追赶到领跑，高铁工人如何从近2万根电缆中仔细辨别每根线线束特点；隔屏蔽服都能感受到电 流嗡嗡跑，是什么原因让电网工人勇于触摸1000千伏带电导线铤而走险。一起看看5位代表在这场见面 会上的"掏心窝"分享。 15年前，从高职毕业，何小虎如愿成为一名航天人，从事被誉为火箭"心脏"的液体火箭发动机相关零部 件生产加工工作。近年来，以微米级精度标定的液体火箭发动机的生产制造，对一线技能工人提出了更 高的要求。在他看来，自己的看家本领就是可以在非精密的环境中实现微米级的精度控制。 他记得，在某型号发动机研制过程中，有项关键部件的精度要求极高，公差只有0.008毫米，相当于头 发丝的1/10，最初的合格率只有20%。"我当 ...

Core Insights - The ultrafiltration membrane industry is experiencing significant growth driven by increasing water quality demands and environmental awareness, with the market size in China projected to reach 6.8 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.68% [1][12]. Industry Overview - Ultrafiltration membranes are polymer separation membranes with a pore size typically ranging from 0.001 to 0.1 microns, capable of retaining particles larger than 10 nanometers while allowing water and small solutes to pass through [1][4]. - The industry has evolved through three main stages: initial exploration in the 1970s-80s, industrial breakthroughs in the 1990s-early 2000s, and rapid growth from the early 21st century to present [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The demand for ultrafiltration membranes is increasing in municipal water supply, wastewater treatment, and seawater desalination, as well as in the food and beverage and biopharmaceutical sectors [1][12]. - The urban sewage treatment capacity in China reached 234 million cubic meters per day in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.80%, highlighting the growing need for effective wastewater treatment solutions [10]. Industry Chain - The ultrafiltration membrane industry supply chain includes upstream raw materials (organic and inorganic materials), midstream manufacturing, and downstream applications in various sectors such as wastewater treatment, municipal water purification, and food and beverage [8]. Key Players - Major companies in the ultrafiltration membrane sector include Hainan Lifespan, Le Pure Biotechnology, and Beijing Sino, which are leveraging technological advancements to enhance their market positions [14][16]. - Hainan Lifespan has established itself as a leader with a production capacity of 30 million square meters annually, accounting for nearly half of global production [14][16]. Development Trends - The industry is witnessing technological innovations, such as Le Pure's Extreme™ PVDF membrane, which achieves a 99.9999% microbial retention rate, and advancements in membrane materials that enhance performance and sustainability [20][21]. - Market demand is shifting towards industrial wastewater treatment, municipal water supply improvements, and home water purification systems, with increasing consumer preferences for selective filtration products [21][22]. - Chinese ultrafiltration membrane companies are expanding globally, with initiatives to establish overseas production bases and participate in international standard-setting, enhancing their competitive edge [23].

Core Viewpoint - Nanhua Instrument has shown a strong recovery in its core business and is leveraging growth in the new energy sector, achieving significant improvements in operational performance despite a complex market environment [1][2][6] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 124 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.77 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue grew by 44.18% year-on-year, while net profit showed a reduction in losses by 16.54%, indicating a strong start to the year [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The Chinese motor vehicle inspection industry is in a continuous development phase, with the vehicle ownership reaching 453 million and new energy vehicles surpassing 31.4 million [2] - The market is transitioning from traditional inspection services to intelligent and multi-scenario testing, creating structural opportunities driven by policy and market demand [2] Group 3: Business Growth Drivers - The company experienced a 41.34% increase in sales volume of motor vehicle inspection equipment and a 46.88% rise in production volume, reflecting a rapid recovery in its core business [2] - New energy vehicle safety inspection has emerged as a new growth point, with the implementation of regulations in March 2025, leading to increased sales in related products [2] Group 4: Internal Growth and Innovation - Nanhua Instrument is enhancing internal growth by optimizing product structure and expanding into digital solutions and vehicle networking software [4] - The company has made strategic acquisitions to boost its software and IoT capabilities, supporting smart vehicle inspections and data integration services [4] - R&D investment increased by 14.12% in 2024, focusing on advanced monitoring technologies and new projects, thereby expanding its technological capabilities [4] Group 5: Management and Financial Health - The company is actively pursuing cost reduction and efficiency improvements, achieving a sales expense increase in line with revenue growth [5] - As of Q1 2025, the asset-liability ratio was 10.7%, with a current ratio of nearly 6.75, indicating strong financial health [5] - The company has approximately 80 million yuan in hand orders, providing a stable foundation for business growth [5] Group 6: Future Outlook - With support from policies, industry recovery, and internal optimization, the company's operational quality and market expectations are improving [6]

百思福和高校深度产学研合作持续进行。"目前我们正在研发智能储物箱，样机已完成，预计今年 可生产上市。它的形状像个小冰箱，消费者可以在户外通过手机APP、小程序操控使用。"杨建才说。 "好产品是挡不住的"——这是近日记者调研一些外贸企业听得最多的一句话。尽管风云变幻，江苏 外贸企业以"硬实力"对接国际市场需求新变化。 总会有各种渠道，把好产品送往全球 一直以来，江苏的机电产品出口增速高于整体。南京海关数据显示，今年前4个月，机电产品出口 8480.1亿元，增长11.1%，占全省出口总值的68.9%。拿变压器来说，有电的地方就得有变压器。无油难 燃的干式变压器、高能高容的油浸式变压器、节能环保的非晶合金变压器、绿色清洁的光伏变压器…… 变压器出海的种类不断拓展。在电力基建全球化浪潮中，江苏变压器产业以技术创新和政策赋能"双引 擎"驱动，加速开拓国际市场。1—4月，江苏出口变压器27.2亿元，同比增长45.9%。 江苏华鹏变压器有限公司是110kV电压等级变压器的制造业单项冠军，在这一领域目前全球出货量 最大。"大型电力变压器这一行业的智能化制造目前很困难，可以自动化生产的，主要是油箱焊接这一 环节。变压器产品基本 ...

公司始终将技术创新作为企业发展的核心驱动力，现已构建起完善的 知识产权保护体系。截止到报告期末，累计申报专利 951项，其中发明专 利203 项。已获授权专利716项,其中境内专利645项、境外专利71项,发明专利67项。 为了鼓励两轮车换电及电池行业创新发展，表彰为换电技术、电池技术、材料创新、设备升级突出贡献的企业，起点锂电、起点两轮车及 换电、起点研究院（SPIR）联合国内外超过100+行业技术专家、企业家、研究机构和财经媒体等推出2025中国两轮车换电及电池技术创 新"鲁班奖"奖项评选。 经起点组委会确认， 博力威 已报名参加"2025中国两轮车换电及电池技术创新鲁班奖"评选，参选项目为 2025两轮车及换电锂电池最佳技 术创新奖 。 参选企业介绍 广东博力威科技股份有限公司（股票代码： 688345） 自2006 年成立，深耕锂电池领域，2021 年成功登陆科创板，成为国内首家以轻型车 锂电池为主营业务的 A 股上市公司。 公司以 "三驾马车 双轮驱动" 为战略，聚焦轻型动力、储能及消费电子领域，为电动自行车、电动摩托车、电动滑板车、智能机器人、消费电 子、中小型储能等多场景提供高品质锂电池解决方案 ...

Group 1: Jinan Rail Transit Line 4 - The construction of Line 4 has achieved "long rail connection" between the sections from Weilizhuang to Quancheng Park Station, marking a significant milestone in the project [1][5] - The project team has adopted an innovative "machine laying + manual laying" construction mode, which effectively addresses challenges such as limited space and multiple cross operations, achieving a record of 670 meters of track laid in a single day [4] - Key sections of Line 4 utilize steel spring floating slab track bed technology to reduce noise by 10 to 15 decibels, enhancing passenger comfort and ensuring smooth train operations [5][7] Group 2: Jinan Rail Transit Line 8 - The hot sliding test for Line 8 has officially started, which is a critical step before the full line dynamic debugging begins [8][10] - The dynamic debugging is expected to last for about 2-3 months, during which the performance and compatibility of various systems will be comprehensively tested and optimized [12] - All main structures of Line 8 have been capped, and decoration and auxiliary structure construction are progressing rapidly, with a goal to complete the line by the end of the year [12] Group 3: High New District Cloud Bus - The construction of the High New District Cloud Bus project is in the final sprint phase, with all 32 stations capped and decoration work underway [15] - Train debugging has already commenced between the Rainbow Lake Park Station and Tangye East Road Station, aiming for successful operation by the end of the year [15] Group 4: Noise Reduction Measures - In light of the upcoming high school entrance examinations, all ongoing projects are implementing a "silent action" to ensure a quiet environment for students, demonstrating the commitment to community welfare while accelerating construction [17]

为了鼓励两轮车换电及电池行业创新发展，表彰为换电技术、电池技术、材料创新、设备升级突出贡献的企业，起点锂电、起点两轮车及 换电、起点研究院（SPIR）联合国内外超过100+行业技术专家、企业家、研究机构和财经媒体等推出2025中国两轮车换电及电池技术创 新"鲁班奖"奖项评选。 评选企业要求： 在两轮换电 及电池产业链 细分产品或技术方面有技术创新发明或重大技术创新的企业，参选企业要求提交相关专利发明证明 及技术创新性描述等。 经起点组委会确认， 博力威 已报名参加"2025中国两轮车换电及电池技术创新鲁班奖"评选，参选项目为 2025两轮车及换电锂电池最佳技 术创新奖 。 参选企业介绍 广东博力威科技股份有限公司（股票代码： 688345） 自2006 年成立，深耕锂电池领域，2021 年成功登陆科创板，成为国内首家以轻型车 锂电池为主营业务的 A 股上市公司。 公司以 "三驾马车 双轮驱动" 为战略，聚焦轻型动力、储能及消费电子领域，为电动自行车、电动摩托车、电动滑板车、智能机器人、消费电 子、中小型储能等多场景提供高品质锂电池解决方案。凭借 300 + 研发团队与超 700余项专利，依托"金箍棒"自主电芯 ...

Group 1 - Zhongce Rubber, a leading company in the domestic tire industry, has been listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, marking a new phase in its development [1] - The company owns well-known brands such as Chaoyang, Haoyun, Weishi, and Quannuo, and has recently launched a new mid-to-high-end tire brand, Bull Tire, in collaboration with Tuhu Car Maintenance [1] - The first passenger car tire product from Bull Tire, GTRcomfort, focuses on durability, safety protection, and noise reduction, aiming to redefine the quality standards for household tires [1][2] Group 2 - Zhongce Rubber's products cover various fields including passenger cars, trucks, buses, and engineering vehicles, and it aims to rank among the top ten global tire companies by 2024 [2] - The GTRcomfort tire utilizes advanced materials and technology, including German nano materials and high-performance rubber formulations, enhancing overall durability and performance [2] - The design of GTRcomfort includes features that improve wet braking performance and reduce cabin noise, catering to family users' needs for comfort and quietness during long trips [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongce Rubber Group Co., Ltd. has officially listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, marking a significant milestone for the Chinese tire industry as it aims to enhance its global competitiveness through capital market leverage [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Zhongce Rubber was established in 1992 and specializes in the research, production, and sales of various tire products, having developed several well-known brands such as "Westlake" and "Trazano" [2] - The company has formed partnerships with major automotive manufacturers like FAW Jiefang and BYD, establishing a comprehensive product matrix that includes all-steel tires, semi-steel tires, and bias tires [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company reported steady revenue growth from 2022 to 2024, with revenues of 31.889 billion yuan, 35.252 billion yuan, and 39.255 billion yuan, respectively, and net profits of 1.225 billion yuan, 2.638 billion yuan, and 3.787 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The funds raised from the IPO will be primarily allocated to projects such as a high-performance tire digital factory and the enhancement of the high-end green tire manufacturing industry chain [2] - Zhongce Rubber is focusing on improving core product capacity and advancing a green high-end strategy to optimize its product matrix and strengthen its market position [2] Group 4: Technological Innovation - The company is committed to building competitive barriers through technological innovation, collaborating with universities and research institutions to develop high-tech products [4] - Zhongce Rubber's R&D expenditures from 2022 to 2024 are projected to be 1.256 billion yuan, 1.401 billion yuan, and 1.473 billion yuan, indicating a consistent increase in investment [4] Group 5: Sustainability Efforts - The company is advancing green production practices to support societal carbon neutrality goals, implementing energy-efficient processes and utilizing environmentally friendly raw materials [5] - Zhongce Rubber's initiatives include low-temperature mixing and heat recovery from vulcanization exhaust, which help reduce production costs and promote resource recycling [5]