3C 设备：苹果重启创新周期，设备弹性大 20250923 摘要 国内折叠屏手机供应链已启动早期打样，预计年底定型，明年初量产， 初期产量 1,000 万至 2000 万部，组装环节设备需求增加，博众精工等 企业受益。 苹果计划于 2026 年底发布 AI 眼镜，凭借 Meta 的成功经验和自身生态 系统，销量预期较高，将为国内设备商带来新的增量市场。 苹果将在明年推出与 AI 结合的家居产品，如桌面台灯，并可能在 2027 年推出全玻璃屏手机，利好蓝思科技、伯恩光学及宇环数控等玻璃处理 产业链企业。 为提升用户体验，苹果可穿戴设备可能增加红外摄像头，PC 和 iPad 将 全面转向 OLED 屏幕并推出折叠屏产品，预计持续推动资本开支增长， 带动相关设备商利润提升。 苹果端侧 AI 是未来发展重点，通过整合外接模型（北美 GPT，中国阿里 千问）增强用户体验，硬件更新换代和资本开支增加将推动生态系统升 级。 Q&A 未来两年苹果在硬件和 AI 方面的创新周期将如何影响 3C 设备产业链？ 苹果端侧 AI 的发展对其生态系统有何影响？ 苹果端侧 AI 的发展对于其生态系统具有重要意义。去年（2024 年），苹 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance in the first half of 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth driven by the recovery in the lithium battery industry and improved cash flow [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved revenue of 6.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 740 million yuan, up 61.19% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.86%, and a net profit of 375 million yuan, up 456.29% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for 1H25 was 33%, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 11.2%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Industry Analysis - The lithium battery segment is the main revenue source for the company, with improved order trends due to domestic and international market expansion [1]. - The non-lithium battery segment also saw revenue growth, driven by increased capital expenditure in the 3C industry and advancements in photovoltaic technologies [1]. Development Trends - The company is actively developing solid-state battery technologies and has launched mass production of dry-process equipment, positioning itself to benefit from the long-term growth potential of solid-state batteries [2]. - The subsidiary, Guangdao Technology, has leveraged its 20 years of expertise in laser technology, which is applicable to various industries, showing signs of improved downstream demand [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upwards by 10.9% and 5.7% respectively, now projecting net profits of 1.77 billion yuan and 2.42 billion yuan [3]. - The target price has been increased by 40% to 35 yuan, reflecting an adjusted P/E ratio of 31x for 2025 and 23x for 2026, indicating an upside potential of 18.3% from the current stock price [3].

Group 1 - Apple plans to enhance its competitiveness in the AI sector through a series of new devices, including a desktop robot, an upgraded humanoid Siri, a smart speaker with a display, and home security cameras [1] - The AI desktop robot is expected to be released in 2027, featuring a 7-inch display, which could transform personal interaction with AI and set new standards in the home robotics industry [1] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, global smartphone shipments slightly declined to 288.9 million units due to moderate consumer demand, with Samsung maintaining the largest market share at 57.5 million units, a 7% year-on-year increase, while Apple's iPhone shipments fell by 2% to 44.8 million units [2] - Huawei led the domestic market with an 18% share, achieving a 15% year-on-year increase in shipments [2] Group 3 - Apple's first foldable iPhone is anticipated to launch in the fall of 2026 alongside the iPhone 18 Pro series and "Air" series models, while the standard iPhone 18 release is postponed to spring 2027 [3] - In Q4 2024, global shipments of foldable smartphones are projected to be 3.8 million units, a decrease of 18% year-on-year, with Huawei holding a 31.2% market share and Samsung at 26.7% [3] - Apple's entry into the foldable smartphone market is expected to leverage its strong brand and integration capabilities to invigorate the segment [3] Group 4 - Areas of interest include automation assembly equipment, automated testing equipment, foldable screen hinges, 3D printing applications, and mid-frames and back covers [4]

Group 1 - The 3C device industry includes computers, communications, and consumer electronics, with its development closely tied to the iteration of terminal products like smartphones and computers [1] - Apple is a major demand driver for the 3C device industry, with over 95% of its iPhone and AirPods produced in mainland China, providing high-value collaboration opportunities for domestic companies [1] - The demand for automation equipment is significant due to rapid product iteration, complex processes, and cost-reduction strategies, with the iPhone 17 series expected to drive growth in assembly and testing equipment [1] Group 2 - The foldable screen market is rapidly penetrating mainstream consumer groups, with global shipments expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 49.48%, reaching 102 million units by 2027 [2] - Key innovations in the foldable screen industry include hinge and flexible screen technologies, with major manufacturers like Huawei and Samsung leveraging self-developed hinge technology for competitive advantage [2] - The cost of display modules and hinges accounts for over 50% of the foldable screen industry's expenses, indicating that related testing and precision processing equipment will benefit from increased market penetration [2]

Core Viewpoint - Lihua Xing plans to raise up to 168 million yuan through a simplified procedure for issuing shares to no more than 35 specific investors, aimed at funding semiconductor equipment precision component R&D and industrialization projects, as well as supplementing working capital [1] Group 1: Fundraising and Project Focus - The fundraising will primarily target R&D and industrialization of precision components for semiconductor equipment, indicating Lihua Xing's strategy to extend its business into the semiconductor industry while consolidating its existing 3C equipment operations [1] - The implementation of this project is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness in high-end manufacturing and optimize its business structure [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Stability - Lihua Xing has experienced significant fluctuations in performance, with net profits attributable to the parent company recorded as -41.36 million yuan in 2022, -37.73 million yuan in the first half of 2023, 7.08 million yuan in 2024, and -37.94 million yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating unstable profitability [1] - The upcoming fundraising may help improve the company's financial condition and support the expansion of new business ventures [1] Group 3: Client Dependency and Market Strategy - Lihua Xing has a long-standing partnership with Huawei, previously serving as a core supplier for Huawei's 3C equipment, with Huawei's business accounting for nearly 70% of its revenue at one point [1] - Currently, the company provides services such as mobile testing cabinets, charging pile ODM, and module supply to Huawei, and is involved in complete assembly [1] - Despite the significant contribution from Huawei, Lihua Xing's recent performance has been heavily impacted by industry fluctuations, and the move to increase focus on the semiconductor sector may be a strategy to reduce reliance on a single client and seek new growth opportunities [1]

Key Insights - The report highlights the recovery of the consumer electronics cycle and the expansion into new fields as key growth drivers for the company, which is recognized as a leader in 3C equipment [4][5] - The manufacturing sector is showing signs of improvement, with PMI figures gradually approaching the growth line, indicating a potential recovery in the manufacturing industry [4][5] - The company is actively expanding into emerging fields such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economy, which are expected to drive demand for general equipment [5] Company Summaries 1. Genesis (300083) - The company is positioned as a leader in the 3C equipment sector, with a focus on expanding its product matrix into various fields, including general equipment and humanoid robots [4] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 5,244 million, 5,731 million, and 6,262 million CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 14%, 9%, and 9% [5] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 404 million, 548 million, and 659 million CNY, with growth rates of 70%, 36%, and 20% [5] 2. Weishi Jiajie (00856) - The company is transitioning from traditional distribution to becoming a provider of intelligent solutions, driven by cloud computing and AI [6] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1,029.52 million, 1,184.25 million, and 1,349.97 million HKD, with growth rates of 15.57%, 15.03%, and 13.99% [6] - Net profit estimates for the same period are 11.91 million, 14.13 million, and 16.30 million HKD, with growth rates of 13.26%, 18.63%, and 15.35% [6] 3. Huaya Intelligent (003043) - The company is a leading supplier of precision metal structural components for semiconductor equipment and is expanding into solid-state battery equipment [7] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1,313 million, 1,571 million, and 1,794 million CNY, with growth rates of 109.3%, 19.6%, and 14.2% [7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 157 million, 188 million, and 211 million CNY, with growth rates of 94.9%, 19.7%, and 11.9% [7] Industry Insights - The macroeconomic analysis indicates that the manufacturing PMI has decreased to 49.3% in July, suggesting a weakening recovery momentum [8] - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, with expectations of a "slow bull" market despite recent adjustments [9][10] - The bond market is experiencing a new normal characterized by slow declines and rapid increases, with investors advised to remain patient for further rate decline catalysts [11]

Group 1: Robotics Sector - The robotics sector is experiencing accelerated overseas expansion, driven by technological breakthroughs and profitability improvements, leading to a reassessment of value [1] - Wan'an Robotics focuses on AI embodied robots, achieving a global market share of 11.9%, with over 57% in the Japanese market; Cloudwise Technology leads globally in the number of online service robots in hotels [1] - Geekplus has maintained its position as the global leader in warehouse AMR for six consecutive years, with over 70% of its revenue coming from overseas; companies with core technology, global layout, and improving profitability are expected to see value reassessment [1] Group 2: Solid-State Battery Development - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating, with major companies like CATL, EVE Energy, and BYD advancing pilot lines and sample validations, with some achieving semi-solid mass production [2] - Full solid-state small batch production is expected to begin between 2025 and 2027; the equipment segment is likely to benefit first from this industrialization process [2] - Leading equipment manufacturers are accelerating product validation and customer onboarding, with companies like Xianlead Smart and Winbond Technology providing comprehensive solutions for key processes [2] Group 3: Other Key Sectors - The forklift sector is benefiting from the rapid development of embodied intelligence, with domestic and international forklift companies, e-commerce logistics firms, and robotics companies making strides in intelligent logistics [3] - The export chain is seeing advantages due to the implementation of Vietnam's tariff policy, which enhances regional manufacturing cost differentials, allowing companies with global capacity and brand channel capabilities to improve profitability and market share [3] - The 3C equipment sector is expected to benefit in the short term from innovations in Apple's hardware products, and in the medium term from supply chain security issues driving new capacity in Southeast Asia [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [12]. Core Insights - Leading companies in the industry are actively investing in foldable screen products, with Apple's first foldable iPhone expected to launch in the fall of 2026 alongside the iPhone 18 Pro series [2]. - The smart glasses market is experiencing explosive growth, with transaction volume increasing over 8 times year-on-year, and a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 60% from 2025 to 2029 [3]. - Major players like Meta and Apple are also entering the smart glasses market, with Meta's new headset expected to be priced above $300 and Apple's AI glasses anticipated to launch by the end of 2026 [3]. Summary by Sections Foldable Screen Products - Industry leaders are focusing on foldable screen technology, with significant product launches planned by major companies such as Apple, Honor, and Samsung [2]. Smart Glasses Market - The smart glasses market is projected to see a shipment volume of 12.8 million units globally by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 26%, and the Chinese market expected to exceed 2.75 million units with a staggering growth of 107% [3]. Investment Opportunities - Suggested areas for investment include 3D printing applications, automation assembly equipment, automation testing equipment, Android-based 3C devices, foldable screen hinges, and components like middle frames and back covers [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the machinery sector [4] Core Insights - Major companies like Huawei and Tencent are actively collaborating with robotics manufacturers, leveraging their capabilities in application scenarios and AI infrastructure to enhance model training and R&D efficiency, which is expected to accelerate the commercialization of humanoid robots [1][11][41] - The China Securities Index Company has launched the Innovation and Entrepreneurship Robotics Index, which includes 34 companies, indicating a potential influx of capital into the robotics sector, supporting continued market momentum [1][11][41] - The report emphasizes a strong outlook for embodied intelligence, including both humanoid and non-humanoid robots, and encourages exploration of investment opportunities in "AI + Robotics" beyond just humanoid robots [1][11][41] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - Major tech giants are enhancing robotics manufacturers' capabilities, which is expected to boost the commercialization of humanoid robots [2][11] - The newly launched robotics index includes companies such as Huichuan Technology, Hubei Zhongke, and others, with expectations for increased capital inflow into the sector [2][11] - The report suggests focusing on embodied intelligence and exploring various robotics applications, including exoskeletons and sensors, which do not necessarily depend on humanoid robot proliferation [2][11] Engineering Machinery - Recent rumors about poor domestic sales data for engineering machinery in early May have led to significant stock corrections among leading companies, but the report suggests that this data may not represent the entire month [12][21] - The report anticipates double-digit growth in domestic sales for the year, supported by a low base from the previous year [12][21] - The domestic market is expected to recover, driven by increased investment in infrastructure and construction projects [21][22] Semiconductor Equipment - The report highlights the increasing importance of domestic semiconductor equipment due to export restrictions from the U.S., which is expected to accelerate the domestic production rate [25][26] - The overall outlook for the semiconductor equipment sector remains positive, with anticipated growth in orders for 2025 [26] 3C Equipment - The report notes that domestic manufacturers are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing adjustments in Apple's production strategy, with expectations for strong demand in 2025 [27] Other Equipment Sectors - The report provides insights into various sectors, including oil service equipment, elevators, rail transit equipment, and mining machinery, with specific recommendations for companies within these sectors [30][31][32][33]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - Huawei's nova 14 series and Harmony OS computer product launch event is scheduled for May 19, 2025, marking it as one of the most significant events for Huawei in 2025 [3] - Apple's first foldable iPhone is expected to be released in the fall of 2026, alongside the iPhone 18 Pro series, with a projected global shipment of 3.8 million foldable smartphones in Q4 2024, a year-on-year decline of 18% [4] - Huawei holds a 31.2% market share in the foldable smartphone segment, while Samsung's market share has decreased to 26.7% [4] Summary by Sections Product Launches - Huawei's upcoming launch includes the nova 14 series and a new Harmony OS computer, potentially the first foldable PC from Huawei [3] Market Trends - The foldable smartphone market is experiencing a decline, with a significant drop in shipments, but Apple's entry is expected to revitalize the market due to its strong brand and integration capabilities [4] Investment Opportunities - Suggested areas for investment include 3D printing applications (e.g., Huazhu High-Tech, Plittech), automated assembly equipment (e.g., Bozhong Precision, Kuaike Intelligent), and automated testing equipment (e.g., Oatmeal Technology, Jepter) [5]