惠誉：由于关税减缓2025年下半年经济增长，美国消费者支出将走弱。 ...

SHMET 网讯：6月17日，日本央行宣布维持目标利率在0.5%不变，符合市场预期，连续第三次会议按兵不动。 另外，该行以8比1的投票结果决定了债券缩减计划，保持现有债券缩减计划不变直至2026年3月，从2026年4月起，每个季度每月减少约2000亿日元的日 本国债购买量。 政策声明全文 1．在今天举行的货币政策会议上，日本央行政策委员会一致决定，在下次会议前的期间内，采用以下货币市场操作指引：日本央行将引导无担保隔夜 拆借利率维持在约0.5％的水平。 2．关于削减日本国债（JGB）购买规模的问题，日本央行以8比1的多数投票决定一项计划，拟将其每月日本国债的公开市场购买规模逐步削减，并在 2027年1月至3月期间将该规模降至约2万亿日元。原则上，从现在起到2026年1月至3月，每个季度削减约4000亿日元；自2026年4月至6月起，每个季度削减 约2000亿日元（详见附件）。 3．尽管局部领域仍存在疲软，日本经济整体呈现温和复苏的态势。全球经济整体也保持温和增长，但在一些地区由于各自的贸易及其他政策影响，出 现了部分疲软。 尽管受价格上涨等因素影响，消费者信心疲弱，但在就业和收入环境改善的背景下，私人消费仍维 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In May, the industrial sector maintained growth, with the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increasing by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month, indicating that the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend [1]. - In May 2025, real estate sales continued to decline, with the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities falling month - on - month and the year - on - year decline narrowing [1]. - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Mid - view Event Overview 3.1.1. Production Industry - In May, the national industrial sector maintained growth, with the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increasing by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month [1]. 3.1.2. Service Industry - In May 2025, real estate sales continued to decline. The sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all fell month - on - month, with the decline in third - tier cities widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Upstream - Energy: International oil prices have continued to rebound [2]. - Black commodities: All black commodities have recently declined in the short term [2]. 3.2.2. Midstream - Chemical industry: The PX operating rate has recently rebounded [3]. - Infrastructure: The asphalt operating rate has continued to rise recently [3]. 3.2.3. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as the same period last year, at a near - three - year low [4]. - Service: The number of domestic flights has decreased periodically [4]. 3.3. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [5]. 3.4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of various industries have different trends. For example, the credit spread of the chemical industry decreased from 52.63 last week to 49.66 this week, and the credit spread of the pharmaceutical industry decreased from 61.31 last week to 58.32 this week [50]. 3.5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - Different industries have different price trends. For example, the spot price of WTI crude oil increased by 7.37% year - on - year, while the spot price of zinc decreased by 1.91% year - on - year [51].

Core Viewpoint - In May, industrial and service sector production maintained rapid growth, with domestic consumption performing better than expected, while external demand slightly declined due to short-term factors [1] Group 1: Production and Demand Analysis - In May, the growth rate of industrial added value slightly decreased, primarily due to improved industrial production in late May following eased US-China negotiations [1] - The "618 shopping festival" and the policy of replacing old consumer goods significantly boosted the retail sales growth in May, although investment growth fell short of market expectations [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Looking ahead, the current easing of US-China relations following the Geneva Joint Statement suggests that the second quarter GDP is likely to achieve rapid growth [1] - Key variables to monitor in the second half of the year include the intensity of export shipments and the resilience of consumer spending [1] - Recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing employment, increasing income, and improving livelihoods, along with the anticipated implementation of policy financial tools, are expected to support the economy in the second half of the year [1]

Economic Growth Insights - May economic data shows resilience despite external pressures, with industrial added value growth at 5.8%, only down 0.3 percentage points from April's 6.1%[3] - Fixed asset investment growth remains stable at 3.7%, with real estate investment dragging down at -10.7%[3] - Manufacturing investment grew by 8.5%, with the fastest growth in transportation equipment manufacturing at 26.1%[3] Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Retail sales growth in May reached 6.4%, the first time exceeding 6% in 2024, driven by promotional activities[3] - Significant growth in household appliances (53%) and communication equipment (33%) indicates strong policy support for consumption[3] - Anticipated adjustments in June may lead to a decline in consumption growth due to demand pull-forward from May[3] Employment and Future Outlook - Urban unemployment rate in May was stable at 5.0%, showing no significant impact from external shocks[3] - The second quarter GDP is expected to remain stable, with minimal fluctuations anticipated due to external changes[3] - Future growth will be supported by manufacturing, infrastructure investment, and consumer spending, despite potential declines in exports[3] Risk Considerations - Risks include heightened geopolitical conflicts and unexpected increases in oil prices impacting domestic costs[3]

欧洲央行副行长金多斯：从中期来看，关税措施将同时抑制经济增长和通胀。 ...

日前，欧洲央行宣布将三大关键利率分别下调25个基点，旨在回应通胀回落与经济增长疲弱的现实，同 时应对全球贸易紧张局势带来的不确定性。不过，欧洲央行并未对整体前景过度悲观。欧洲央行已进入 政策微调阶段，降息动作仍然可能延续，但频率和幅度都将受到更多宏观环境与地缘政治因素影响。 日前，在最新一次货币政策会议上，欧洲央行决定将三大关键利率分别下调25个基点，这是该行自2024 年6月宣布降息以来第八次下调利率，虽符合市场预期，但这一次央行释放出的信号比"继续宽松"更耐 人寻味：当前的货币政策周期可能已经接近尾声。 大西洋两岸分化的货币政策及其对金融市场影响也成为分析人士观察的重点。随着欧洲央行将借贷成本 下调至2.00%，美欧两地利差已达到225个基点以上，为2019年9月以来的最高水平。通常而言，美国利 率上升会使美国资产更具吸引力，从而提振美元，但近期美元汇率走势却未如以往那般强劲。自今年1 月中旬以来，欧元兑美元已累计上涨超过13%。分析认为，美国预算赤字大幅扩张前景叠加美国贸易政 策带来的不确定性，已促使全球投资者慎重考虑对美投资，越来越多的资金开始转向相对稳定的欧元区 市场。 尽管多数通胀指标显示回归目标 ...

Core Insights - Bank of America Merrill Lynch warns that Trump's "Big Beautiful Plan" will not achieve fiscal balance through growth effects and will provide limited economic growth stimulus [1][2] Group 1: Economic Impact - The plan is estimated to cost $2.3 trillion but will only generate $102.8 billion in revenue feedback, resulting in a self-financing ratio of only 4.5% [2][3] - To achieve self-financing, GDP needs to grow by approximately 9% by the fiscal year 2034, which is deemed nearly impossible [2][3] Group 2: Growth Projections - The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) projects that the plan will only increase GDP by an average of 3 basis points over the next 10 years, with a maximum increase of 0.4% by the fiscal year 2034 [3][4] - Economic effects from 2025 to 2034 are projected as follows: Output increase of 0.4%, Business capital decrease of 0.1%, Labor increase of 0.6%, and Consumption increase of 0.8% [3][4] Group 3: Comparison with Other Estimates - The Tax Foundation estimates that the plan will lead to a long-term GDP growth of 0.8%, covering about one-third of its costs [4] - The Wharton School predicts a GDP growth of 0.4% in the first decade, raising the annual growth rate from 1.8% to 1.85% [4] - The Yale Budget Lab suggests that the plan may raise growth rates from 1.8% to about 2% by 2027, but federal debt will eventually reverse this effect [4]

Group 1 - Consumption is the ultimate goal of economic activity and an important engine for economic growth, with a focus on enhancing consumer confidence and income stability [1][2] - The Chinese government emphasizes the need to combine consumption promotion with improving people's livelihoods to boost consumer capacity and willingness [2][3] - Recent policies aim to strengthen macroeconomic policies with a focus on people's livelihoods and consumption, creating a virtuous cycle between economic development and improvement of living standards [3][4] Group 2 - The current global situation presents complex challenges, making it essential to enhance consumption to meet high-quality living needs and stimulate economic circulation [4] - Employment is highlighted as a fundamental aspect of people's livelihoods, with strategies to stabilize and expand job opportunities, particularly for key demographics [4][5] - Improving the wage distribution system is crucial for increasing residents' income and enhancing consumer confidence, alongside strengthening the social security network [5][6]

订阅特朗普动态 +订阅 特朗普："大而美"法案将削减1.6万亿美元的开支 金十数据6月12日讯，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体最新发文："这项伟大、宏大、美好的法案将以前所未 有的速度推动经济增长。与此同时，它还将削减1.6万亿美元的开支。这让我们的国家走上了正确的轨 道，此外！让美国再次伟大！" ...